Tuesday, December18, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Woodmont, CT

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:11AMSunset 4:26PM Tuesday December 18, 2018 6:11 AM EST (11:11 UTC) Moonrise 2:52PMMoonset 3:20AM Illumination 83% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 11 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ335 Long Island Sound West Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 550 Am Est Tue Dec 18 2018
.gale warning in effect until noon est today...
Today..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 35 kt, diminishing to around 15 kt with gusts up to 30 kt this afternoon. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Tonight..NW winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Seas around 2 ft in the evening, then 1 ft or less.
Wed..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Wed night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Thu..SW winds around 5 kt, becoming se in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less.
Thu night..E winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less, then around 2 ft after midnight. Rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm after midnight.
Fri..SE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Rain in the morning, then showers in the afternoon. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Fri night..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 2 ft in the evening, then 1 ft or less. Intermittent showers, mainly in the evening.
Sat..SW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming W 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas around 2 ft.
Sat night..W winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
ANZ300 550 Am Est Tue Dec 18 2018
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. High pressure slowly builds in across the area into Wednesday before giving way to a storm system that will impact the waters Thursday night into Saturday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Woodmont , CT
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location: 41.1, -72.94     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 180913
afdokx
area forecast discussion
national weather service new york ny
413 am est Tue dec 18 2018

Synopsis
High pressure slowly builds in across the area into Wednesday
and shifts into the western atlantic by Thursday. This gives
way to an approaching and deepening area of low pressure from
the southeast us Thursday night into Friday. The low continues
to strengthen and move northward across the northeast west of
the hudson valley Friday through Friday night. For the weekend,
the low moves into the canadian maritimes and high pressure
builds in from the southeast us. Weak low pressure approaches
close to the region for late this weekend into early next week
from the west.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
High pressure builds in at the surface and aloft while a storm over
the canadian maritimes slowly shifts east. The combination of these
features will maintain a relatively tight pressure gradient over us
and bring us another breezy day. Sunny, but colder than normal
along with wind chills in the 20s.

Short term 6 pm this evening through Wednesday night
The high pressure ridge axis approaches us tonight and shifts
through on Wednesday. Winds therefore diminish tonight and remain on
the lighter side through Wednesday night. Mostly clear conditions
expected through at least this evening, then varying amounts of over-
the-ridge cirrus are anticipated thereafter. Low temperatures
tonight below normal, then highs around normal on Wednesday.

Wednesday's lows for the most part are expected to end up a little
above normal, however spots more prone to radiational cooling could
end up below normal if cirrus isn't too prevalent.

Long term Thursday through Monday
Offshore high pressure based in the western atlantic Thursday will
eventually give way to approaching low pressure which will be the
focus of the long term. Winds will become more southeasterly. Mild
temperatures in the low to mid 40s are forecast for the day with
mainly dry conditions, although towards northeast nj, lower hudson
valley and into nyc, pops will increase in the afternoon for rain.

The main focus of the long term will be a developing mid latitude
cyclone moving along the appalachians and up along the hudson valley
deepening from Thursday night through Friday night. The associated
warm front approaches Thursday night into early Friday and then
moves across during the day Friday. Rain becomes likely Thursday
night with categorical pops late Thursday night through Friday
morning. There will be rising temperatures into the upper 40s to
lower 50s Thursday night with increasing warm and moist air
advection via strengthening southeasterly flow. This will be when a
strong low level jet, as conveyed by NAM and GFS bufkit profiles to
be near 70kt in the 800-900mb layer. Strong inversion just above the
surface will limit gust potential on land with exception of any
heavy rain which could bring down the higher gusts of perhaps 40kt.

Rain could become heavy at times especially in the late Thursday
night through early Friday timeframe. Models show potential for
enhanced lift with deep omega appearing in this timeframe as well.

After the warm frontal passage, there will continue to be rain
showers and with elevated instability in the warm sector, there will
be a few thunderstorms possible as well. This will potentially
result in heavy rain. MAX temperatures Friday are forecast in the
upper 50s. The region remains in the warm sector Friday night with
showers becoming more occasional in frequency and fog will be
possible as well with the moisture laden grounds and decreasing
winds. Min temperatures forecast Friday night are only in the low to
upper 40s.

For the weekend, low pressure moves northeast into the canadian
maritimes Saturday into Saturday night. A series of cold fronts pass
at the surface, one early Saturday and another one passing through
at night. Yet another cold front looks to move across late Sunday
night into Monday. Mainly dry conditions expected for the weekend
into early next week with just a slight chance of a shower Saturday
afternoon and late Sunday night. Temperatures return to closer to
normal values.

Aviation 09z Tuesday through Saturday
Another cold front crosses the area early this morning, followed by
canadian high pressure building towards the area into tonight.

Vfr through the TAF period. Periodic ceilings around 4-6 thousand
feet are likely through around 8z.

Nw winds through the TAF period. Speeds increasing to around 15-
25g25-35kt early this morning, and continuing until around midday.

Throughout late this evening then continuing into Tuesday morning.

Speeds diminish to around 15-20g20-25kt by around midday Tuesday,
then to around 10-15g15-25kt by late afternoon. Gusts should abate
late this afternoon early this evening and sustained wind speeds
should fall to under 10kt throughout by mid evening.

Outlook for 06z Wednesday through Saturday
Late tonight-Thursday morning Vfr.

Thursday afternoon-night Rain developing from SW to NE with ifr
or lower conditions by overnight. Llws likely and SE winds g20-30kt
possible Thursday night - gusts are most likely at city long island
terminals.

Friday Ifr or lower likely in rain. Llws possible Friday morning.

Friday night-Saturday Improvement toVFR probable, with rain
giving way to isolated showers. Sw-w winds g 15-25kt possible
Saturday.

Marine
Cold air advection along with a tight pressure gradient will likely
maintain gale force gusts on all waters at the start. Then as a high
pressure ridge approaches, winds and seas gradually diminish. End
times for the gale warning are unchanged for the time being, and sca
conditions will follow. All waters should fall below advisory
criteria by Wednesday morning. Then as the center of high pressure
nears and passes through, tranquil conditions for Wednesday and
Wednesday night.

Gales possible on the waters late Thursday night into Friday with
any enhanced mixing from low level jet. Otherwise in terms of wind
gusts, forecast has below SCA winds Thursday into Thursday evening.

Sca level wind gusts late Thursday night on the ocean with all
waters having SCA level gusts Friday and then just the ocean Friday
night. SCA level gusts on all waters forecast for Saturday and
Saturday night. Seas are all below SCA Thursday into Thursday
evening and then late Thursday night, ocean is forecast to reach sca
seas. The ocean pretty much stays in SCA range for seas for the rest
of the forecast period while non-ocean waters stay below SCA except
for eastern long island sound this weekend.

Hydrology
Widespread rain of 1.5 to 2 inches possible for late week with
locally higher amounts but still uncertainty in terms of amounts.

Minor flooding will be a possibility.

Tides coastal flooding
Full moon coming up on december 22. Potential of widespread minor
coastal flooding with possible moderate coastal flooding
particularly for south shore bays Friday with piling water and
increasing SE flow. Surge of 1-2 ft needed for most locations to
reach coastal flood benchmarks. Possible coastal flooding but to a
lesser extent for Saturday.

Equipment
Nyc central park winds are out of service until further notice.

Loss of data is due to a severed cable. Parts are on order.

Nyc NOAA weather radio station kwo35 (162.55 mhz) will remain off
the air for an extended period of time.

Okx watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ny... None.

Nj... None.

Marine... Gale warning until noon est today for anz330-335-338-340-345.

Gale warning until 6 pm est this evening for anz350-353-355.

Synopsis... Jc jm
near term... Jc
short term... Jc
long term... Jm
aviation... Goodman
marine... Jc jm
hydrology... Jc jm
tides coastal flooding...

equipment...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 13 mi42 min N 22 G 27 27°F 45°F1011.8 hPa
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 14 mi48 min N 8 G 14 28°F 44°F1011 hPa
44039 - Central Long Island Sound 15 mi79 min NNW 25 G 33 32°F 44°F5 ft
44040 - Western Long Island Sound 35 mi82 min NW 23 G 35 34°F 2 ft21°F
44022 - Execution Rocks 44 mi57 min WNW 23 G 33 42°F
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 48 mi42 min 41°F
LDLC3 - New London Ledge CT - Ledge Light Weather 48 mi42 min NW 28 G 36 27°F 1008.7 hPa12°F
NLNC3 - 8461490 - New London, CT 49 mi48 min NNW 8 G 20 26°F 44°F1008.5 hPa

Wind History for New Haven, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Bridgeport, Sikorsky Memorial Airport, CT11 mi20 minN 16 G 2310.00 miFair28°F12°F53%1012.1 hPa
New Haven, Tweed-New Haven Airport, CT13 mi19 minNNW 16 G 2610.00 miFair28°F12°F51%1011.6 hPa
Shirley, Brookhaven Airport, NY20 mi16 minN 17 G 2110.00 miA Few Clouds28°F16°F60%1011.7 hPa
Islip, Long Island Mac Arthur Airport, NY22 mi16 minNW 11 G 2310.00 miMostly Cloudy32°F17°F54%1011.6 hPa
The Gabreski Airport, NY24 mi19 minNNW 18 G 3010.00 miFair and Breezy28°F14°F56%1010.9 hPa

Wind History from BDR (wind in knots)
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1 day agoNE11
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2 days agoCalmCalmNE4NE5NE4N7NE8NE3N5N6NE8NE8N10NE7NE7NE12NE16
G22
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NE12NE9
G17
NE11NE14

Tide / Current Tables for New Haven Harbor entrance, Connecticut
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New Haven Harbor entrance
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Tue -- 12:37 AM EST     0.57 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 02:19 AM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 06:55 AM EST     6.44 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:12 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 01:15 PM EST     0.38 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 01:51 PM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 04:24 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 07:21 PM EST     5.86 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.70.61.32.53.95.26.16.464.83.4210.40.61.52.84.15.25.85.74.83.52.2

Tide / Current Tables for Stratford Shoal, Long Island Sound, New York
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Stratford Shoal
Click for Map
Tue -- 12:44 AM EST     0.61 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 02:20 AM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 06:58 AM EST     6.86 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:12 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 01:22 PM EST     0.41 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 01:52 PM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 04:25 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 07:24 PM EST     6.24 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.80.61.32.54.15.56.56.96.45.23.72.31.10.50.61.52.94.35.56.26.15.23.92.5

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (6,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.