Sunrise 5:37 AM   Sunset 8:01 PM Moonrise 7:08 AM   Moonset 11:28 PM

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ANZ335 Long Island Sound West Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 1019 Pm Edt Fri May 10 2024
Tonight - NE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming around 10 kt late. Seas 1 ft or less. Wave detail: E 1 ft at 4 seconds. Chance of rain late this evening and early morning. Sat - NE winds around 10 kt, becoming E in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less. Wave detail: ne 1 ft at 3 seconds. Sat night - SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Wave detail: E 1 ft at 3 seconds. Slight chance of showers after midnight. Sun - SE winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Wave detail: E 1 ft at 3 seconds. Chance of showers. Sun night - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Slight chance of showers in the evening. Mon - SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming S 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less, then around 2 ft in the afternoon. Wave detail: sw 1 ft at 2 seconds. Mon night - S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Tue - S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers. Tue night - S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Showers likely. Wed - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers. Wed night - N winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers.

ANZ300 1019 Pm Edt Fri May 10 2024
Synopsis for the long island and connecticut coastal waters - Low pressure heads farther out to sea tonight. Another low tracks through Saturday night into Sunday. High pressure briefly returns on Monday before a warm front passes through Monday night. Another frontal system will then impact the area Tuesday night into Wednesday. High pressure builds in for the end of the week.

FXUS61 KOKX 110237 AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 1037 PM EDT Fri May 10 2024

SYNOPSIS
Low pressure shifts farther out to sea overnight. High pressure otherwise builds in from New England on Saturday, then another frontal system tracks through Saturday night into Sunday. High pressure briefly returns on Monday before a warm front passes through Monday night. Another frontal system will then impact the area Tuesday night into Wednesday. High pressure builds in for the end of the week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/
Low pressure offshore to our south will continue to head farther out to sea overnight, taking an associated inverted trough over us with it. This will bring an end to rainfall by around midnight.

Surface high pressure briefly returns in its wake and cloud cover should diminish considerably overnight, perhaps even becoming clear toward daybreak Saturday. Lows falling into the low to mid 40s, with upper 40s in the metro.

SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
Conditions remain seasonably cool through the weekend as the region remains entrenched in a H5 trough situated over the Eastern US. While dry to start, the next shortwave in the flow swing east, returning rain chances for the second half of the weekend.

Saturday will be the drier, more pleasant, of the days this weekend as surface high pressure noses down from New England.
Despite the sunshine early, temperatures remain cooler than normal in a persistent onshore wind with most areas topping out in the low to mid 60s on Saturday.

Increasing cloud cover Saturday night and rising rain chances west of NYC as the weak frontal system approaches. The showers should run into drier air and ridging as it pushes east, and much of southern CT and eastern Long Island may remain predominantly dry during this period. But to the west, showers likely develop by daybreak Sunday, and may continue intermittently thru the early afternoon before tapering. Rainfall with this system appears light, under a quarter inch everywhere.

Slow improvement Sunday afternoon and evening as high pressure begins to return once again, but remaining chilly, with most in the 50s during the day, and falling into the 40s overnight into Monday morning.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
Shortwave ridging builds in aloft on Monday with weak high pressure at the surface. A frontal system passing across eastern Canada will then send a warm front through the area Monday night with a low chance of showers. However, much of Monday into the first half of Tuesday should be dry with seasonable temperatures on Monday, but then warming to above normal, by about 3 to 5 degrees on Tuesday.

A southern branch storm system over the Central Plains works eastward through midweek, being tugged on by a passing northern stream vortex tracking across eastern Canada. Globals vary a bit on the interaction and timing of the southern branch system, but overall there is good agreement. Thus, stayed close to a consensus forecast. A strengthening southerly flow develops Tuesday into Tuesday night ahead of the system with increasing chances of rain, especially at night. A frontal wave develops to the south Tuesday night into Wednesday. This turns winds around to E/NE with a more stable airmass and the potential for stratiform rain to the north of the low track. Any instability is weak with the best chance for any thunderstorms being Tuesday evening/night. There is the chance for some decent rainfall though depending on the proximity to the surface low with a chance of good frontogenetic forcing just north of the low track. It is much too early to be specific with rainfall amounts, but the potential is there for an inch or more. System is also fairly progressive, limiting the flood threat. As for temperatures, Wednesday cools down a bit, but then Thursday and Friday are back to readings a few degrees above normal.

AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Weak high pressure builds in from the northeast tonight and remains over the Northeast through Saturday.

VFR. Light and variable to ENE winds bcmg N-NE overnight 5-10kt. Winds shift briefly east late morning/early aftn Sat, then SE around 10kt for much of the afternoon and evening.

...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Brief MVFR cigs with a shower still possible before 04z.

OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

Sat night: VFR evening, possible MVFR and shower late at night.

Sunday: Chance of MVFR or lower in showers.

Monday: Mainly VFR. Isolated showers possible at KSWF.

Tuesday: MVFR or lower in showers and t-storms. SW G15-20kt.

Wednesday: MVFR or lower in showers and t-storms.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE
East winds become northeast overnight but generally below SCA criteria. SCA remains up for the ocean due to seas lingering around 5 ft, but might be able to be cancelled with the next update.

A moderate southerly flow ahead of an approaching mid week frontal system could bring winds and seas on the ocean close to SCA conditions late Monday into Tuesday. An easterly flow develops north of a frontal wave on Wednesday with the potential for seas building further.

HYDROLOGY
There are no hydrologic concerns throughout the forecast period.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
Minor coastal flooding continues tonight, but coverage will be less than last night. Maintained coastal flood advisories for the western south shore bays of Southern Nassau and Southern Queens, along with Southern Fairfield and Southern Westchester.
Have chosen based on latest trends from taking an average of Stevens, ETSS, and ESTOFS to downgrade advisories to statements for Southern Brooklyn, Staten Island, and NE NJ coastal zones.
Statements which were previously in effect for Southern Suffolk, NW Suffolk, Northern Nassau and Northern Queens have been discontinued as water levels have trended down and are no longer expected to meet minor benchmarks.

Saturday night may see one more night where minor benchmarks could be approached for Southern Nassau and Southern Queens, otherwise this latest round of minor coastal flooding should completely come to an end later in the weekend.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 AM EDT Saturday for CTZ009.
NY...Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 AM EDT Saturday for NYZ071.
Coastal Flood Advisory until 1 AM EDT Saturday for NYZ178-179.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ350-353- 355.

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Black Rock Harbor entrance
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Fri -- 01:06 AM EDT     8.10 feet High Tide
Fri -- 05:39 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:07 AM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 07:36 AM EDT     -0.76 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 01:42 PM EDT     6.89 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:46 PM EDT     0.26 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 07:59 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 11:27 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Black Rock Harbor entrance, Connecticut, Tide feet

Bridgeport
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Fri -- 01:10 AM EDT     7.94 feet High Tide
Fri -- 05:39 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:07 AM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 07:39 AM EDT     -0.73 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 01:46 PM EDT     6.75 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:49 PM EDT     0.25 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 07:59 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 11:27 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Bridgeport, Connecticut, Tide feet

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