Monday, October15, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Southport, CT

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:04AMSunset 6:13PM Monday October 15, 2018 7:02 PM EDT (23:02 UTC) Moonrise 1:24PMMoonset 11:04PM Illumination 39% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 6 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ335 Long Island Sound West Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 402 Pm Edt Mon Oct 15 2018
.small craft advisory in effect until 6 pm edt this evening...
.gale warning in effect through late tonight...
Tonight..SW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt, becoming W 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Showers likely with slight chance of tstms this evening, then chance of showers after midnight.
Tue..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt, becoming W 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Tue night..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Wed..W winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 1 ft or less, then around 2 ft in the afternoon.
Wed night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Thu..NW winds around 15 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Thu night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt, becoming W 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Seas around 2 ft in the evening, then 1 ft or less.
Fri..W winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming sw 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less.
Fri night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Chance of showers after midnight.
Sat..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Chance of showers.
Sat night..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
ANZ300 402 Pm Edt Mon Oct 15 2018
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. A cold front will approach the region from the west this evening before passing through tonight. High pressure builds across the area on Tuesday. A cold front moves across the region on Wednesday, followed by high pressure on Thursday and Friday. Another cold front will pass through the area on Saturday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Southport, CT
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location: 41.13, -73.29     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 152205
afdokx
area forecast discussion
national weather service new york ny
605 pm edt Mon oct 15 2018

Synopsis
A cold front will approach the region from the west this evening
before passing through tonight. High pressure builds across the
area on Tuesday. A cold front moves across the region on Wednesday,
followed by high pressure on Thursday and Friday. Another cold
front will pass through the area on Saturday, followed by high
pressure once again for Sunday into Monday.

Near term until 6 am Tuesday morning
There is a lull in the precipitation as a warm front that moved
across the area earlier has pushed north of the region. As a
cold front approaches from the west this evening, showers will
again increase in coverage this evening. As the cold front
crosses the region isolated thunderstorm are possible. Strong
mid level winds could mix down with any thunderstorm development
resulting in wind gusts up to 35 mph. As the front moves
offshore shortly after midnight, winds will shift to the
northwest but will remain gusty. Temperatures tonight will be in
the 40s.

Short term 6 am Tuesday morning through Tuesday night
Skies will clear behind the front with winds gradually
diminishing through the day as high pressure builds across the
region. Tuesday's high will be in the mid to upper 50s with lows
Tuesday night in the low to mid 40s.

Long term Wednesday through Monday
This period will begin with a jet core of 130-140 kts over the
region on Wednesday. A cold front will move through Wednesday
afternoon and immediately behind the front, especially closer to the
coast with steep lapse rates 35 to 40 knot winds have a good chance
of making their way down to the surface for late Wednesday afternoon
and evening. Later shifts will have to evaluate as we get closer
for any wind advisory potential. Atmosphere will be moisture starved
with rigorous shortwave moving across the region later in the day
and acting as a digger of the long wave trough in the northeast.

This will bring the coolest air of the season thus far behind the
cold front. Thursday morning will be quite chilly with some 10
degree temperature departures below normal, and that will be with a
northwest wind. The air mass should moderate quickly with transient
ridging take place aloft by early Friday. Any temperatures
moderation will be short lived with a progressive and highly
amplified 500 mb flow. The next vigorous set of shortwaves are
progged to move through by late Saturday Saturday night. This
time there will be some moisture to work with in advance of the
preceding ridge and some moisture streaming northeast from the
southeast and gulf states. Do to the progressive nature of the flow
at this time not looking for any rigorous low pressure waves to
develop along the boundary, but there will be enough moisture for at
least chance pops.

Behind the cold front another reinforcing shot of cool crisp autumn
air is expected for the second half of the weekend, with another
chilly morning expected on Sunday. By the looks of things it
appears that this highly amplified and progressive pattern will
continue into the early part of next week. Therefore look for a 36
hour period of well below normal temperatures to be followed by a
similar duration of near normal temperatures each and every time a
series of rigorous shortwaves push through the area. Due to a
progged lack of phasing between the north and southern branches and
much cooler and drier source regions of air masses any precipitation
with the frontal passages is expected to be relatively light. This
is true especially when comparing to precip events from earlier this
month.

Aviation 22z Monday through Saturday
A cold front will move across this evening, with timing from
02z northwest at kswf, to 03z-04z nyc metro, to 06z east.

MVFR CIGS with some patches of ifr at kewr kisp khpn kgon,
should improve this evening, withVFR expected at the nyc
metros by about 22z. At that time, S winds that have been
gusting on the occasional side today should veer SW and gust
more frequently into the 20-25 kt range ahead of the approaching
cold front. Tafs contain tempo for thunder with gusty winds and
ifr vsby at most sites for 1-2 hrs ahead of the front, then
increased post- frontal wind gusts to 30-35 kt across the board
for a few hours, highest at the nyc metros. Most sites should go
quicklyVFR after the frontal passage as well. Expect
diminishing NW winds late tonight, settling in around or just
over 10 kt by 12z tue.

Ny metro enhanced aviation weather support...

detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component fcsts,
can be found at: http:

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 7 mi38 min SW 8.9 G 13 65°F 67°F1011.3 hPa
44040 - Western Long Island Sound 20 mi72 min SSW 16 G 21 66°F 1 ft62°F
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 23 mi32 min SW 13 G 15 66°F 69°F1011.8 hPa
44022 - Execution Rocks 29 mi32 min SSW 16 G 21 67°F
44069 32 mi47 min SW 12 G 14 66°F 63°F66°F
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 33 mi32 min 68°F
44039 - Central Long Island Sound 34 mi47 min SSW 14 G 18 67°F 68°F3 ft
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 48 mi32 min 66°F 67°F1012.8 hPa

Wind History for Bridgeport, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Bridgeport, Sikorsky Memorial Airport, CT9 mi70 minSW 1010.00 miMostly Cloudy66°F62°F87%1011.6 hPa
Danbury, Danbury Municipal Airport, CT19 mi69 minS 59.00 miOvercast62°F60°F93%1011.7 hPa
White Plains - Westchester County Airport, NY23 mi66 minVar 310.00 miOvercast63°F60°F90%1011.8 hPa
New Haven, Tweed-New Haven Airport, CT24 mi69 minSSW 910.00 miMostly Cloudy67°F63°F87%1011.5 hPa

Wind History from BDR (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW4NW5CalmNW3CalmCalmCalmN3N3NE3N4CalmN4CalmS10S16S13S16SW13SW15SW13SW15SW10SW16
1 day agoW3W5NW3NW4CalmW3NW3CalmNW4CalmCalmCalmNW8N3N7W5SW6W8SW8SW8W7W8W6W4
2 days agoW10NW6NW4W3NW4W3W4W3NW4CalmCalmNW5NW5NW4W6W9W7W11NW9W10NW12W7
G16
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Tide / Current Tables for Black Rock Harbor entrance, Connecticut
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Black Rock Harbor entrance
Click for Map
Mon -- 04:19 AM EDT     6.43 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:04 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 10:30 AM EDT     1.26 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 01:23 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 04:37 PM EDT     6.92 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:12 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 11:03 PM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 11:07 PM EDT     0.95 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.83.24.65.86.46.25.44.33.121.41.42.13.44.766.86.96.253.72.51.41

Tide / Current Tables for Bridgeport, Connecticut
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Bridgeport
Click for Map
Mon -- 04:23 AM EDT     6.30 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:04 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 10:33 AM EDT     1.21 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 01:23 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 04:41 PM EDT     6.78 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:11 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 11:03 PM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 11:10 PM EDT     0.91 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.73.14.45.66.26.25.44.33.121.31.323.24.65.86.66.76.153.72.51.40.9

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (19,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.