Monday, June17, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Southport, CT

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Sunrise 5:18AMSunset 8:29PM Monday June 17, 2019 6:33 AM EDT (10:33 UTC) Moonrise 8:53PMMoonset 5:36AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 15 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ335 Long Island Sound West Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 615 Am Edt Mon Jun 17 2019
Today..N winds around 5 kt, becoming ne late this morning, then becoming S around 5 kt this afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less. Slight chance of showers late this morning and afternoon.
Tonight..S winds around 5 kt, becoming E after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less. Showers likely.
Tue..E winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Showers likely.
Tue night..E winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers.
Wed..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers.
Wed night..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers.
Thu..E winds around 5 kt, becoming se in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers.
Thu night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming ne after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers.
Fri..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers in the morning.
Fri night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
ANZ300 615 Am Edt Mon Jun 17 2019
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. A nearly stationary front will remain in the vicinity of the waters through Thursday. High pressure builds in on Friday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Southport, CT
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location: 41.13, -73.29     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 171013
afdokx
area forecast discussion
national weather service new york ny
613 am edt Mon jun 17 2019

Synopsis
A stationary front remains in the vicinity through much of the
upcoming week. Several waves of low pressure will move along the
front, bringing periods of unsettled weather. High pressure then
builds in late in the week into next weekend.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
The forecast is mainly on track. Updated hourly temps and
dewpoints for the next few hours.

A stationary front remains to our south today. The flow aloft will
remain nearly parallel to this frontal boundary with a few weak
shortwaves moving through the flow. This brings some difficulty in
trying to determine the timing and placement of any showers that may
develop in response to the subtle lift. There at least seems to be
agreement that the better combination of lift and available moisture
is in the afternoon. Will go with a forecast of no higher than
chance pops through the afternoon. CAPE should be primarily elevated
and minimal, so with weak lift will leave out the mention of
thunder. Clouds otherwise outweigh sunshine, and high temperatures
end up close to normal.

There is a moderate risk for rip current development at the ocean
beaches today despite weak winds, due to residual s-se swells of 3
to 4 ft and around a 7 to 8 sec period.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 pm Tuesday
The pattern doesn't change all that much tonight and Tuesday, with
rain chances being driven by the timing of weak waves of low
pressure at the surface and aloft. There's somewhat better agreement
among the models for likely pops eventually reaching all parts of
the forecast area at some point tonight and then lasting into a
portion of Tuesday. Without sufficient confidence to lower pops from
the previous forecast, will leave in likely pops across the entire
area through all of Tuesday. With that said, there will likely be
more time when it isn't raining on Tuesday versus when it is, and
greater overall coverage of rain is probably in the morning into
early afternoon. Instability and lift remain lacking, so although an
isolated TSTM cannot be completely ruled out, will leave it out of
the forecast for now.

Regarding flash flooding potential, given the flow aloft aligned
with the nearby stationary front, there is the potential for
training cells. The combination of low to mid-level forcing and
moisture convergence however appears to be more of a concern just
off to our south, but really a close call. Can't rule out the threat
of flash flooding tonight and Tuesday solely on the cell training
potential in a 2 inch pwat environment, and if guidance comes into
better agreement for combined lift and moisture convergence over us,
then the flash flooding potential would increase. Will hold off on
issuing a flash flood watch at this point due to insufficient
confidence that all the ingredients come together over the area.

With the threat not beginning until tonight, this also gives the day
shift an opportunity to look at 12z guidance to see if the flash
flooding signal becomes stronger over the forecast area.

The cloud cover will lead to slightly warmer than normal low
temperatures tonight and slightly below normal high temperatures on
Tuesday.

There is a low risk for rip current development at the ocean beaches
on Tuesday.

Long term Tuesday night through Sunday
A nearly zonal flow aloft will keep a frontal boundary in close
proximity to the region through the coming week. This combined
with multiple waves of low pressure riding along the front will
result in episodes of showers and a few thunderstorm. The main
threat will be moderate to heavy rain with each of these waves.

Weak shear and minimal instability do not support strong and or
severe convection at this time. Additionally, there is
uncertainty with the timing and track of each of these waves.

The last in the series looks to exit the region late Thursday
into Friday. Heights begin to rise across the mid section of the
country toward the end of the week, working eastward over the
week in tandem with surface high pressure.

Temperatures through the long term will average near to
slightly above normal. It will be muggy through Thursday with
dew points in the 60s. Drier air filters Friday through the
weekend in conjunction with building high pressure.

Aviation 10z Monday through Friday
A weak cold front stalls just south of the area today. A weak
wave of low pressure may track east along the front towards the
terminals tonight.

MainlyVFR today, then MVFR or lower develops tonight with rain
and lowering ceilings.

Light n-ne winds giving way to S SE winds this afternoon ahead
of an approaching weak frontal wave. The light flow continues
tonight.

Ny metro enhanced aviation weather support...

detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component fcsts,
can be found at: http:

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44069 32 mi48 min N 1.9 G 1.9 69°F 69°F67°F

Wind History for Bridgeport, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Bridgeport, Sikorsky Memorial Airport, CT9 mi41 minN 010.00 miOvercast69°F64°F87%1012.7 hPa
Danbury, Danbury Municipal Airport, CT19 mi40 minSW 36.00 miFog/Mist63°F62°F97%1013.5 hPa
White Plains - Westchester County Airport, NY23 mi37 minNW 47.00 miMostly Cloudy67°F64°F93%1012.8 hPa
New Haven, Tweed-New Haven Airport, CT24 mi40 minN 010.00 miOvercast69°F66°F90%1012.6 hPa

Wind History from BDR (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS9SW4S5SW7SW7S8S7S7S10S83CalmCalmCalmE5S3SW7W3W3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
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Tide / Current Tables for Black Rock Harbor entrance, Connecticut
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Black Rock Harbor entrance
Click for Map
Mon -- 04:31 AM EDT     Full Moon
Mon -- 05:19 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 05:35 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 06:01 AM EDT     -0.58 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 12:06 PM EDT     6.96 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:10 PM EDT     0.24 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 08:27 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 08:52 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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7.975.33.41.5-0-0.6-0.11.33.14.96.376.65.43.92.30.90.30.61.93.65.57

Tide / Current Tables for Bridgeport, Connecticut
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Bridgeport
Click for Map
Mon -- 04:31 AM EDT     Full Moon
Mon -- 05:19 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 05:34 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 06:04 AM EDT     -0.56 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 12:10 PM EDT     6.82 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:13 PM EDT     0.23 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 08:27 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 08:52 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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7.86.95.33.51.60.1-0.6-0.11.22.94.76.16.86.55.43.92.310.30.51.73.45.36.8

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (6,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.