Tuesday, October23, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Southport, CT

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:13AMSunset 6:01PM Tuesday October 23, 2018 1:08 PM EDT (17:08 UTC) Moonrise 5:57PMMoonset 5:50AM Illumination 99% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 14 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ335 Long Island Sound West Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 1230 Pm Edt Tue Oct 23 2018
.small craft advisory in effect through late tonight...
This afternoon..SW winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts up to 25 kt late. Seas 1 ft or less. Slight chance of showers. Isolated tstms late.
Tonight..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Wed..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 1 ft or less, then around 2 ft in the afternoon.
Wed night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Thu..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Thu night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 2 ft in the evening, then 1 ft or less.
Fri..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Fri night..NE winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less, then around 2 ft after midnight. Chance of rain after midnight.
Sat..NE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Rain likely. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sat night..NE winds 20 to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Rain likely. Vsby 1 to 3 nm in the evening. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
ANZ300 1230 Pm Edt Tue Oct 23 2018
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. A cold passes over the waters this afternoon and evening. Canadian high pressure then builds through Friday. Low pressure impacts the waters on Saturday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Southport, CT
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location: 41.13, -73.29     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 231639
afdokx
area forecast discussion
national weather service new york ny
1239 pm edt Tue oct 23 2018

Synopsis
A cold front move through this afternoon and evening. High
pressure will gradually build towards the region through the end
of the week. A coastal low then likely impacts the area over
the weekend.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
Forecast largely remains on track. Per GOES 16 visible imagery,
clouds continue to clear from west to east, so at least a few
hours of mostly sunny skies are possible prior to another area
of mid level clouds with the approaching low pressure system.

Otherwise, the main impact for today will be the cold front that
is expected to move through late this afternoon and evening.

The potential for isolated thunderstorms exists with its
passage, although storms will primarily be low topped so charge
separation may be difficult. Colder temperatures aloft will be
located across the lower hudson valley into connecticut, where
subsequently a deeper instability layer will be possible. Deep
layer shear profiles will be quite strong with the frontal
passage, and given a dry subcloud layer, it's possible that
gusty winds may be locally enhanced in any shower or
thunderstorm that develops along the front. The strongest gusts
will occur just prior and immediately following the frontal
passage. Previous discussion follows.

Low pressure will move across new england today along a digging
middle and upper level shortwave trough. A warm front will be
nearly stationary to the north of the area. This will be the
focus of some showers for eastern areas late this morning,
mainly across southeastern connecticut and the twin forks of
long island, where low-level instability will be the greatest.

Thereafter, chances increase for western areas, such as
northeast new jersey and into the lower hudson valley as the
cold front approaches and moves through. Some of the mesoscale
models seem to be keying in on a line of showers in the
afternoon and early evening hours with the cold front, so
increased chances for precipitation in these areas to generally
low end chance. Although instability is low, a stray
thunderstorm cannot be ruled out, though chances were too low to
include in the forecast.

Southerly flow out ahead of the approaching cold front will mean
seasonable temperatures, with highs in the upper 50s to lower
60s.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 pm Wednesday
Chances for showers continue early tonight as the cold front
moves through. The best chances for showers will be for northern
areas across the lower hudson valley and southern connecticut
as these areas will be closer to the weak low moving over new
england. Dry conditions should return to the entire area after
midnight as the low departs and high pressure builds in at the
surface. Despite cold air advection into the area, lows will
not drop off too much as winds will not die off, keeping the
boundary layer well mixed. Lows will be in the upper 30s to
middle 40s.

High pressure at the surface will remain centered to the west of
the area on Wednesday, allowing a northwesterly flow. This will
usher in a cooler air mass, with highs in the lower to middle
50s. It will also be on the breezy side, especially along the
coast.

Long term Wednesday night through Tuesday
High pressure builds into the region through Friday before moving
offshore. Dry weather is expected through this period with below-
normal temperatures. Highs only around 50 for both Thursday and
Friday with low temperatures mostly in the 30s Wednesday night, then
below freezing for inland areas Thursday night.

Global models agree that a longwave trough digs towards the
southeast states Friday night through Saturday night with a coastal
low traveling close to the mid-atlantic and northeast coasts. The
track of this low is still in question as some models track its
center over the tri-state area while others have it farther
offshore. In either case, it should be close enough to us to
bring likely pops Saturday and Saturday night. Rain chances
would begin late Friday night. There is even a chance of some
snow mixed in Friday night early morning Saturday mainly for the
higher elevations well inland if the center ends up tracking to
our east. Will cap pops at 50% for Sunday as the storm slows
down to our north with an occlusion. The 500mb trough axis will
still be to our west on Monday so shower chances continue
through Monday night.

Additional impacts from this storm are potentially advisory-criteria
winds and a chance of at least minor coastal flooding. The degree of
both is uncertain as it depends on the eventual track and strength
of the storm, on which models continue to disagree. Rain amounts
will also be affected by the storm track, but as of right now fresh
water flooding does not appear to be one of the greater impacts.

Aviation 18z Tuesday through Sunday
A cold front crosses the tri-state this afternoon and early
this evening. Canadian high pressure then builds towards the
region into Wednesday morning.

Most likelyVFR through the TAF period. The possible exception
is this afternoon at kgon and kswf, where there is a very low
chance of MVFR conditions.

Isolated to scattered showers should be limited to late this
afternoon early this evening. A rumble of thunder cannot be
ruled out at swf. Any shower could produce stronger gusts than
are indicated in the tafs, but would be brief.

Sw winds increase this morning and should be 10-15 kt late this
morning into the afternoon. An occasional gust to around 20 kt
is possible early this afternoon, but gusts 20-25 kt will be
more frequent this evening. Winds veer to the w, then wnw
behind the cold front with gusts 15-25kt. A gust up to 30 kt
cannot be ruled out with the frontal passage.

Ny metro enhanced aviation weather support...

detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component fcsts,
can be found at:
http:

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 7 mi38 min SW 6 G 8
44040 - Western Long Island Sound 20 mi48 min WSW 12 G 14 59°F 1 ft47°F
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 23 mi38 min SW 7 G 12 59°F 61°F1015.6 hPa
44022 - Execution Rocks 29 mi38 min SW 9.7 G 12 61°F
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 33 mi38 min W 8 G 8.9 58°F 61°F1016.5 hPa
44039 - Central Long Island Sound 34 mi38 min S 16 G 19 61°F 63°F1 ft
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 48 mi38 min 57°F 59°F1015.7 hPa

Wind History for Bridgeport, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Bridgeport, Sikorsky Memorial Airport, CT9 mi76 minSSW 510.00 miMostly Cloudy59°F46°F62%1016.3 hPa
Danbury, Danbury Municipal Airport, CT19 mi75 minSW 810.00 miMostly Cloudy57°F45°F64%1016.5 hPa
White Plains - Westchester County Airport, NY23 mi72 minSW 410.00 miPartly Cloudy58°F43°F58%1016.2 hPa
New Haven, Tweed-New Haven Airport, CT24 mi75 minS 1110.00 miMostly Cloudy61°F48°F65%1016.3 hPa

Wind History from BDR (wind in knots)
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W7W8S10SW9SW8SW10SW9N3CalmCalmCalmCalmNE4CalmCalmCalmS9S9S8SW8SW5SW7
1 day agoNW13
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NW7CalmS4W4W4W6W6W5W4W5W5W4W4W5W8W11W9
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2 days agoSW10SW11SW9W9W7W3N3CalmCalmCalmCalmNW5NW4N10
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Tide / Current Tables for Black Rock Harbor entrance, Connecticut
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Black Rock Harbor entrance
Click for Map
Tue -- 04:41 AM EDT     0.27 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:49 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 07:13 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 10:47 AM EDT     7.85 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:07 PM EDT     -0.04 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:56 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 06:00 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 11:09 PM EDT     7.46 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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6.34.83.11.50.50.31.12.74.66.37.57.87.15.63.720.6-00.41.73.55.46.87.4

Tide / Current Tables for Bridgeport, Connecticut
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Bridgeport
Click for Map
Tue -- 04:44 AM EDT     0.26 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:49 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 07:13 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 10:51 AM EDT     7.69 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:10 PM EDT     -0.04 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:56 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 06:00 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 11:13 PM EDT     7.31 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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6.24.83.11.60.50.31.12.64.46.17.37.775.53.720.6-00.31.63.45.26.67.3

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.