Friday, November16, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Orient, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:37AMSunset 4:29PM Friday November 16, 2018 10:50 AM EST (15:50 UTC) Moonrise 2:28PMMoonset 12:29AM Illumination 61% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 8 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ340 Peconic And Gardiners Bays- 915 Am Est Fri Nov 16 2018
.gale warning in effect until 6 pm est this evening...
Today..NW winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 40 kt, becoming W 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt late. Waves 3 to 5 ft. Rain likely late this morning with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tonight..W winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Sat..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft in the morning, then 1 ft or less.
Sat night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sun..N winds around 5 kt, becoming E in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sun night..S winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming W after midnight. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers after midnight.
Mon..W winds around 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers in the morning.
Mon night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Tue..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Tue night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
ANZ300 915 Am Est Fri Nov 16 2018
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. Deep low pressure will quickly track northeast along the coast into the canadian maritimes today. High pressure will return for the weekend. Weak low pressure will pass through late Sunday through Monday. High pressure will return on Tuesday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Orient, NY
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location: 41.15, -72.24     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 161507
afdokx
area forecast discussion
national weather service new york ny
1007 am est Fri nov 16 2018

Synopsis
Deep low pressure will quickly track northeast along the coast
into the canadian maritimes today. High pressure will build in
from the ohio valley over the weekend. Weak low pressure will
pass through late Sunday through Monday. High pressure will
return for Tuesday through thanksgiving day.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
Precipitation continues to rapidly decrease across the area as
low pressure departs. Although there may be a light wintry mix
over the next hour for eastern locales, accumulations are
expected to be minimal, so the winter weather headlines have
been allowed to expire. Some lingering issues with ponding of
water will be possible due to melting snow and clogged drains
from downed leaves. Fair weather can be expected by afternoon.

Strong winds can be expected as the low pulls away, and a few
gusts up to 50 mph cannot be ruled out from the NW near the
coast through the remainder of the morning. As such, issued a
wind advisory this morning for coastal locations including nyc,
long island, and coastal ct. NW winds remain gusty this
afternoon, but do diminish some.

Max temperatures today will be in the low to mid 40s across the
interior with mid to low 50s along the coast.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 pm Saturday
Skies should clear this evening as the low pulls away. Low
temperatures will range from the upper 20s well inland to
mid upper 30s nyc metro long island. High pressure builds into
the region on Saturday with temperatures in the mid 40s to near
50.

Long term Saturday night through Thursday
Through the long term period the pacific western ridge will remain
while a trough remains across the central and eastern us. Northern
stream flow will predominate as a series of weak impulses rotate
through the trough. One of the stronger waves moves through near
zonal flow Sunday into Monday. Timing of this wave remains a little
uncertain, and will keep probabilities at chance and slight chance.

Colder air will be in place so will have chances of light snow
inland and rain along the coast. Another wave passes generally to
the southwest and south Wednesday as the wave moves through mid and
low level higher pressure. Ensemble and model guidance keeps the
area dry with generally higher pressure dominating as the wave
passes.

Surface high pressure will be over the area for thanksgiving as
another shortwave passes to the north through the longwave trough.

Temperatures will be moderating for thanksgiving, still remaining
below seasonal normals.

A southern stream shortwave doe move under the western ridge Monday
night into Tuesday and quickly tracks through the southern states.

At this time there is no phasing with the northern trough, and this
system is expected to remain south next Thursday through Saturday.

Aviation 15z Friday through Tuesday
A coastal storm will move off to the northeast this morning with
conditions improving late this morning and early this afternoon.

As low pressure starts departing the region there will be
2 main concerns this morning.

1- precipitation moving across the terminals this morning will
produce another short period of frozen precipitation before
ending. The concern for frozen precipitation will be from the
nyc terminals and points west. (lower chances across jfk and
lga)
2- there will be a short 3 hour window (mainly between 12-15z)
for strong gusty winds as the upper low moves out of the region.

Wind gusts up to 45kt will be possible.

The precipitation comes to an end between 13-15z, with
conditions improving back toVFR. We should remainVFR for the
remainder of the TAF period.

Northwest winds will continue for much of the day with wind
speeds around 15-20 kt with gusts between 25-30kt, a few higher
gusts will be possible at the coastal terminals. Wind speeds and
gusts will continue to gradually diminish overnight.

Ny metro enhanced aviation weather support...

detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: http:

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
LDLC3 - New London Ledge CT - Ledge Light Weather 14 mi20 min NNW 27 G 31 41°F 996.7 hPa36°F
MTKN6 - 8510560 - Montauk, NY 16 mi32 min 44°F 50°F996.1 hPa
NLNC3 - 8461490 - New London, CT 17 mi32 min N 9.9 G 16 40°F 44°F997.1 hPa
44017 - 23 Nautical Miles Southwest of Montauk Point, NY 33 mi60 min WNW 29 G 39 45°F 56°F13 ft994.9 hPa (+2.5)44°F
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 37 mi32 min N 20 G 29 37°F 53°F1000.7 hPa

Wind History for New London, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Groton / New London, Groton / New London Airport, CT16 mi54 minNNW 16 G 253.00 miLight Rain Fog/Mist41°F39°F93%996.6 hPa
Chester, Chester Airport, CT21 mi55 minNNW 14 G 303.00 miLight Snow37°F33°F87%998 hPa

Wind History from GON (wind in knots)
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NW9NW9NW8NW6N5N8N5N6N5N6N5N11NE8NE10N8NE8NE7
2 days agoSE9S12W12NW15
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Tide / Current Tables for Plum Gut Harbor, Plum Island, Long Island Sound, New York
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Plum Gut Harbor
Click for Map
Fri -- 04:25 AM EST     2.40 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:37 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 10:35 AM EST     0.80 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 01:27 PM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 04:28 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 04:31 PM EST     2.41 feet High Tide
Fri -- 10:57 PM EST     0.46 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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11.51.92.22.42.42.21.91.61.20.90.81.11.51.92.22.42.42.21.81.51.10.70.5

Tide / Current Tables for The Race, Long Island Sound, New York Current
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The Race
Click for Map
Fri -- 02:20 AM EST     1.92 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 05:52 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 06:37 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:47 AM EST     -2.12 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 12:05 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 01:27 PM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 02:45 PM EST     1.79 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 04:28 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 06:07 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 09:10 PM EST     -2.30 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.41.41.91.81.40.8-0.1-1.2-1.9-2.1-1.7-1-0.10.91.61.81.50.90.1-0.9-1.8-2.3-2.1-1.4

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (10,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.