Monday, August21, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Orient, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:03AMSunset 7:39PM Monday August 21, 2017 12:45 AM EDT (04:45 UTC) Moonrise 5:46AMMoonset 7:44PM Illumination 1% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ340 Peconic And Gardiners Bays- 932 Pm Edt Sun Aug 20 2017
Overnight..NW winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Mon..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Mon night..SW winds around 10 kt. Waves around 1 ft.
Tue..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Tue night..SW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Chance of showers and tstms.
Wed..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Chance of showers and tstms.
Wed night..W winds around 10 kt, becoming N after midnight. Waves around 1 ft.
Thu..NW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming W in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less.
Thu night..W winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming N after midnight. Waves 1 ft or less.
Fri..NE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming se in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less.
Fri night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming ne after midnight. Waves 1 ft or less. Winds and waves higher in and near tstms.
ANZ300 932 Pm Edt Sun Aug 20 2017
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. High pressure building into the region through Monday morning will settle to the south and east Monday afternoon, allowing a weak warm front to approach Monday night, and pass through by early Tuesday. A cold front will pass through on Wednesday, followed by high pressure later this week.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Orient, NY
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location: 41.15, -72.24     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 210138
afdokx
area forecast discussion
national weather service new york ny
938 pm edt Sun aug 20 2017

Synopsis
High pressure building into the region through Monday morning
will settle to the south and east Monday afternoon, allowing a
weak warm front to approach Monday night. After a hot and humid
Tuesday, a cold frontal passage on Wednesday will produce a
drastic cool down for the end of the week.

Near term until 6 am Monday morning
No changes made to the forecast tonight. Daytime cumulus have
diminished. Weak ridging aloft with high pressure building in
will lead to mostly clear skies for the rest of the night.

This along with diminishing winds should allow temps to drop to
the 50s and 60s in most areas, with only nyc remaining above 70
overnight.

Short term 6 am Monday morning through Monday night
Sky cover could be tricky in spots for the partial solar
eclipse, which should run from about 120 pm to 400 pm in nyc
and peak at 244 pm. Do expect some sct high clouds and also some
sct cu, possibly a narrow band of broken CU with the sea breeze
closer to the north shore of long island and in southern ct.

South facing coastlines may be better viewing locations as any
lower clouds that form inland with the sea breeze.

Temps should rise quickly into early afternoon, and per 15z run
of the hrrrx which has been modified to incorporate impact on
incoming solar radiation due to the eclipse, may actually drop a
couple of degrees between 2-4 pm, then rebound. Overall temps
should still reach the mid upper 80s, possibly 90 in parts of
urban NE nj.

The approaching warm front could spark an isolated shower or
tstm toward sunset well west of nyc, with slight chances
overspreading nearly all the area later Mon night. Lows should
be in the upper 60s lower 70s, and it will become muggy as
dewpoints also increase into that range.

There is a moderate risk of rip currents at atlantic beaches on
Monday.

Long term Tuesday through Sunday
A cold front will reach the area on Wednesday per the 12z suite of
model guidance, which was in good agreement. This means that Tue is
setting up to be hot and humid. Winds progged around 200 degrees
will pump lots of humidity into the area, and across the ERN half of
the CWA keep actual temps slightly suppressed despite h85
warming towards 20c. The humidity will compensate for any lack
of heat, with just about all areas likely AOA 90 for a heat
index. Across the normally hottest areas like nj zones, the
heat index ATTM looks to reach about 100. There could be a few
aftn and eve tstms, particularly N and W of nyc, but there will
at least be an increase in dense cirrus from upstream
convective debris. As a result the fcst GOES mostly cloudy by
tue eve. Shwrs and tstms ahead of the front Tue ngt and wed,
then the area dries out for the remainder of the fcst period.

The cold front will be driven by a 100-kt h3 jet, so tstms will
be easier to sustain or initiate at ngt. If the timing ends up
slightly slower, a svr outbreak is possible on Wed as CAPE could
soar to 3000 j kg or more. Even with the progged faster timing
however, there could still be svr at any time ahead of the front
with the jet acting on MUCAPE around 1500-2000 j kg. Much cooler
weather will then settle in for thu-sun, with temps averaging
blw climo.

Aviation 02z Monday through Friday
Vfr through the TAF period as high pressure remains in control
through Monday.

Nw winds will diminish this evening to around 5 kt at city
terminals and become light and variable elsewhere. Winds will
increase late Monday morning into the afternoon out of the sw
and back towards the south at coastal terminals. Sea breeze
enhancement may allow for gusts in the upper teens at kjfk and
kisp in the afternoon.

Outlook for 00z Tuesday through Friday
Monday night MainlyVFR, with low chance MVFR or lower at
mainly long island terminals.

Tuesday-Wednesday A chance of showers and thunderstorms with
brief periods of MVFR or lower possible. SW winds g15-20kt
Tuesday afternoon.

Wednesday night-Friday Vfr.

Marine
High pressure over the waters will lead to sub-sca conditions
through Monday night. A few gusts up to 20 kt are possible on
the waters west of fire island inlet in the afternoon due to sea
breeze enhancement.

Winds and seas will ramp up on tue, with SCA conditions
developing on all waters. Winds will decrease after a cold
frontal passage, bringing winds the protected waters blw sca
lvls by Wed eve. On the ocean, seas should linger around 5 ft
into Wed ngt. Winds and seas are then progged to remain, in the
absence of any increased swell, blw SCA lvls thru the weekend.

Hydrology
No widespread hydrologic impacts are forecast through the week.

Okx watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ny... None.

Nj... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Jmc goodman
near term... Goodman ds
short term... Goodman
long term... Jmc
aviation... Ds
marine... Jmc goodman
hydrology... Jmc goodman


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MTKN6 - 8510560 - Montauk, NY 16 mi45 min 73°F 72°F1020.8 hPa (+1.5)
NLNC3 - 8461490 - New London, CT 17 mi45 min N 2.9 G 2.9 69°F 71°F1020.3 hPa (+1.5)
44017 - 23 Nautical Miles Southwest of Montauk Point, NY 33 mi55 min 73°F 72°F2 ft1021.1 hPa (+1.8)68°F
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 37 mi45 min NNW 2.9 G 4.1 72°F 77°F1021 hPa (+1.5)

Wind History for New London, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Groton / New London, Groton / New London Airport, CT16 mi1.8 hrsNW 510.00 miFair69°F59°F70%1019.8 hPa
Montauk, Montauk Airport, NY18 mi51 minN 0 mi72°F64°F79%1020.8 hPa
Chester, Chester Airport, CT21 mi50 minN 010.00 miFair70°F57°F64%1021 hPa

Wind History from GON (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW3CalmCalmW4NW5NW8NW6NW6N10
G17
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1 day agoSW6SW10SW4SW5SW5CalmW7NW6W6NW6S6SW12SW11SW11SW11SW10SW11SW7SW5SW3SE3SW4W5W5
2 days agoNE3NE5SE3E4SE5SE6SE9SE11SE8S9S10S7S9S14S6S9S7S4S9S7S5S12SW5SW10

Tide / Current Tables for Plum Gut Harbor, Plum Island, Long Island, New York
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Plum Gut Harbor
Click for Map
Mon -- 04:01 AM EDT     -0.26 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:45 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 06:04 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:52 AM EDT     3.12 feet High Tide
Mon -- 02:31 PM EDT     New Moon
Mon -- 04:14 PM EDT     -0.08 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:38 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 07:43 PM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 10:18 PM EDT     3.49 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
2.51.80.90.1-0.300.81.72.433.12.92.31.71.10.4-0.10.10.81.72.53.23.53.4

Tide / Current Tables for The Race, Long Island Sound, New York Current
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The Race
Click for Map
Mon -- 02:25 AM EDT     -4.01 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 05:44 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 05:44 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 06:03 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:36 AM EDT     3.45 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 11:52 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 02:31 PM EDT     New Moon
Mon -- 02:49 PM EDT     -3.71 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 06:00 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 07:38 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 07:43 PM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 08:54 PM EDT     3.53 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-1.3-3-3.9-3.8-2.9-1.40.52.33.33.42.81.5-0.2-2.1-3.4-3.7-3.1-1.7-01.83.13.53.12

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (0,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.