Tuesday, May23, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Orient, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:20AMSunset 8:10PM Tuesday May 23, 2017 8:27 PM EDT (00:27 UTC) Moonrise 4:10AMMoonset 5:33PM Illumination 3% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 28 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ340 Peconic And Gardiners Bays- 716 Pm Edt Tue May 23 2017
Tonight..S winds around 5 kt...becoming E after midnight. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of light rain after midnight. Light rain late.
Wed..NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt...diminishing to 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 2 ft in the morning...then 1 ft or less. Light rain in the morning.
Wed night..E winds 5 to 10 kt...increasing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt after midnight. Waves 1 ft or less...then around 2 ft after midnight. Chance of rain after midnight.
Thu..E winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Showers likely. Chance of tstms in the afternoon.
Thu night..E winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt... Diminishing to 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Waves 2 to 3 ft in the evening...then 1 ft or less. Showers likely.
Fri..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers.
Fri night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sat..NW winds around 5 kt...becoming s. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sun..SE winds around 5 kt...becoming 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers. Winds and waves higher in and near tstms.
ANZ300 716 Pm Edt Tue May 23 2017
Synopsis for long island waters and new york harbor.. Weak high pressure moves east of the waters tonight. A low pressure system tracks southeast of long island late tonight into Wednesday morning. Brief high pressure builds Wednesday night before a slow moving low pressure system impacts the waters Thursday into Friday. Weak high pressure returns for Saturday. Another frontal system affects the area for the latter half of the holiday weekend.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Orient, NY
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location: 41.15, -72.24     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 232351
afdokx
area forecast discussion
national weather service new york ny
751 pm edt Tue may 23 2017

Synopsis
Weak high pressure moves east of the waters tonight. A low
pressure system tracks southeast of long island late tonight
into Wednesday morning. Weak high pressure builds in later
Wednesday, followed by a slow moving low pressure system
affecting the area Thursday into Friday. Weak high pressure
returns for Saturday. Another frontal system affects the area
for the latter half of the holiday weekend.

Near term until 6 am Wednesday morning
Forecast has been updated mainly for timing of the onset of
rainfall chances. Delayed chances by a couple of hours. Minor
hourly adjustments to temperatures and dewpoints were also made.

Anomalously large and deep upper trough and associated upper
low digs into the the central us tonight... With jet streak and
shortwave riding up the coast late tonight into Wednesday
morning. In response... Southern low pressure tracks to the mid-
atlantic coast tonight and then quickly near of just SE of the
40 70 lat lon Wed morning.

Still quite a bit of spread in terms of areal coverage of
rainfall between models. A rather tight gradient of heavier
rainfall from frontogenetic zone to the N NW of the low... Which
should mainly stay SE of li. With region in briefly favorable
left front quad of approaching upper jet streak... Have leaned
towards higher likelihood of light rain for city coast late
tonight early Wed morning... With decreasing chances for
measurable rain to the north and west. Gusty N NE winds develop
along the coast late tonight and continue into Wed morning in
response tot he low as well.

Short term 6 am Wednesday morning through Wednesday night
Anomalously large and deep central us upper trough and associated
upper low gradually slides east into the ohio tennessee river
valleys Wed into Wed night.

Initial shortwave jet streak and resultant coastal low pressure
departs Wed aft... With brief high pressure building in Wed aft eve.

Any rain pushes east early Wed morning... With gusty N NE winds wed
morning gradually subsiding into the afternoon. At least partial
afternoon clearing should allow temps to rise to near seasonable
levels... Upper 60s lower 70s.

Models in good agreement with increasing potential for rain
development late Wed night into Thu morning ahead of approaching
deep closed low with deep layered lift of sub- tropical
moisture tap. Easterly winds will be increasing as well... With
tightening gradient between warm front low pressure to the S sw
and canadian maritimes high. See tides coastal flooding for
associated impacts.

Long term Thursday through Tuesday
Unsettled pattern for much of the long term.

High amplitude upper level trough over the eastern two-thirds of the
country, with its axis stretching from the central great lakes
region to the gulf coast Thursday morning will push east and become
negatively tilted through the day. This is indicative of a mature
system.

At the surface, a warm front will approach from the south. However,
this front looks to remain south of the region, but should provide a
lifting mechanism. A moist airmass, with dewpoints rising into the
upper 50s, with some 60 degree dewpoints not out of the question,
will already be in place. As the upper low with the system moves
closer to the area, cooler air aloft will provide some elevated
instability. MUCAPE values of up to 500 j kg noted in some of the
models. A period of moderate to briefly heavy rain is possible
Thursday morning. Right now, just some general thunderstorms are
possible.

Although precipitation fields are not currently indicating a high
rainfall event for Thursday with flash flooding, there is a low
probability, given local climatology. The potential for embedded
convection, pwats near 1.50", and low pressure moving into the area
from the west all point to this potential. Although, winds will be
east, a shift more to the southeast on Thursday would be another
ingredient favoring excess rainfall. Again, would be more confident
in flash flooding if QPF was higher and occurring later in the warm
season, but for now, minor urban and poor drainage flooding seems
most likely.

Surface low pressure moves over the area Thursday night, then heads
northeast, into the gulf of maine Friday morning. Light showers will
continue for Friday on the back side of the low.

Weak high pressure builds in for Saturday, with another frontal
system impacting the area Sunday into memorial day.

Aviation 00z Wednesday through Sunday
Weak high pressure over the terminals will weak this evening as
a wave of low pressure moves off the mid atlantic coast. The low
will move south of long island through Wednesday morning, then
weak high pressure will build in once again behind the low
Wednesday afternoon. This high weakens late Wednesday as
another, deeper, low approaches from the west.

Vfr conditions are expected through the forecast period. There
is a low chance of MVFR ceilings and visibilities developing
briefly toward 12z along the coast, then improving as the rain
ends from west to east.

Light and variable wind this evening, becomes NE less than 10 kt
after 06z, then increasing to around 10 kt with gusts up to 20
kt possible. Winds will become E late in the day as the next low
approaches.

Ny metro enhanced aviation weather support...

detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component fcsts,
can be found at:
http:

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
LDLC3 - New London Ledge CT - Ledge Light Weather 14 mi42 min WSW 8.9 G 9.9 58°F 1009.5 hPa50°F
MTKN6 - 8510560 - Montauk, NY 16 mi45 min 60°F 55°F1010.3 hPa
NLNC3 - 8461490 - New London, CT 17 mi45 min SW 1.9 G 6 63°F 53°F1009.6 hPa
44039 - Central Long Island Sound 22 mi177 min W 3.9 G 3.9 61°F 55°F
44017 - 23 Nautical Miles Southwest of Montauk Point, NY 33 mi97 min 57°F 56°F4 ft1010.8 hPa (-0.7)56°F
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 37 mi45 min S 5.1 G 5.1 61°F 62°F1010.4 hPa

Wind History for New London, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Groton / New London, Groton / New London Airport, CT16 mi91 minSW 610.00 miFair61°F50°F67%1009.8 hPa
Montauk, Montauk Airport, NY18 mi93 minN 0 mi61°F54°F78%1010.6 hPa
Chester, Chester Airport, CT21 mi32 minSW 310.00 miFair63°F51°F68%1010.5 hPa

Wind History from GON (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE3E3CalmCalmCalmN6NW5N7N7CalmN5N6N8N9N9N8N7N4S8SW8W6W6SW6SW4
1 day agoS8SW6SW5S4S4SE4SE5E3SE3E4SE7SE7SE10SE11SE9SE11
G17
SE12SE9E7E8E12SE7E6SE9
2 days agoS5S6S3CalmCalmCalmNE3CalmN4CalmNE3N3CalmS4S7S8S6S7S7S8S9S9S8S9

Tide / Current Tables for Plum Gut Harbor, Plum Island, Long Island, New York
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Plum Gut Harbor
Click for Map
Tue -- 02:24 AM EDT     -0.08 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 04:09 AM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 05:23 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:17 AM EDT     2.84 feet High Tide
Tue -- 02:28 PM EDT     0.02 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:32 PM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 08:08 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 08:39 PM EDT     3.60 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.10.4-000.61.32.12.62.82.72.31.71.10.50.10.10.61.52.43.13.53.63.22.5

Tide / Current Tables for The Race, Long Island Sound, New York Current
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The Race
Click for Map
Tue -- 12:45 AM EDT     -3.65 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 04:01 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 04:09 AM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 05:22 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 06:50 AM EDT     3.11 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 10:06 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 01:07 PM EDT     -3.39 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 04:11 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 05:31 PM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 07:09 PM EDT     3.49 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 08:07 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 10:25 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-3.4-3.6-2.9-1.6-01.62.83.12.61.60.2-1.4-2.8-3.4-3-1.9-0.31.42.83.53.22.20.7-1

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (20,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.