Sunrise 5:27 AM   Sunset 8:02 PM Moonrise 12:20 PM   Moonset 2:04 AM

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ANZ330 Long Island Sound East Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 600 Am Edt Tue Mar 30 2021
Today - E winds around 5 kt, becoming S late this morning and afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less. Tonight - S winds around 10 kt. Seas 1 to 2 ft. Wed - S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Chance of showers in the morning, then chance of rain in the afternoon. Wed night - S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm. Thu - W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Showers.Thu night - NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Fri - NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Fri night - NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Sat - W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Sat night - SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.

ANZ340 Peconic And Gardiners Bays- 416 Am Edt Wed May 15 2024
.small craft advisory in effect from this evening through Thursday afternoon - .
Today - SE winds around 5 kt, increasing to 5 to 10 kt this afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less. Rain likely this morning, then chance of rain early this afternoon. Periods of rain late. Tonight - E winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming ne 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Gusts up to 30 kt. Waves 1 ft or less, then around 2 ft after midnight. Periods of rain. Thu - NE winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Slight chance of tstms. Rain likely. Vsby 1 to 3 nm. Thu night - NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 25 kt in the evening. Waves 2 to 3 ft, subsiding to 1 to 2 ft after midnight. Chance of rain. Fri - NE winds around 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft in the morning, then 1 ft or less. Fri night - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Sat - E winds around 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Sat night - E winds around 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers. Sun - E winds around 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers. Sun night - NE winds around 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
winds and waves may be higher in and near tstms.

FXUS61 KOKX 150812 AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 412 AM EDT Wed May 15 2024

SYNOPSIS
Low pressure slowly approaches from the south today. Low pressure then gets closer to Long Island tonight into early Thursday before departing slowly east and gradually away from the region Thursday into Thursday night. Brief high pressure builds from the northeast Friday. This will be followed by another frontal system and potential wave of low pressure over the weekend. High pressure then builds in for early next week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
Low pressure will slowly approach from the south. Rain will continue to overspread the region today and become more widespread. Forcing for lift increases with the environment becoming increasingly moist. Temperatures stay in the 60s today with the rain which for most locations will be periodic or intermittent.



SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
The low gets closest to Long Island tonight and then slowly makes its way out into the Atlantic Thursday into Thursday night.

Models overall have shifted farther north with the low and the speed of the low appears to be lower compared to previous forecasts also. This has resulted in higher POPs for tonight and Thursday with rain likely for much of the two time periods.

Chances for rain remain Thursday night and eventually diminish late Thursday night as low pressure moves farther away. Drier air will eventually come into the area late Thursday night into Friday.

Temperatures still mainly in the 60s for highs Thursday with a rebound of high temperatures on Friday back to near to slightly above normal values, mostly upper 60s to mid 70s.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
The NBM was generally used for the extended period with no major changes in the forecast. There still remains a good deal of uncertainty with the handling of the next surface low pressure system in the vicinity of the area over the weekend and into early next week. The previous discussion follows:

Another system very much like the one preceding it midweek will potentially impact the area over the weekend. However, there is quite a bit of spread in the globals with the southern branch closed low as it moves near the Mid Atlantic coast at the end of the weekend and offshore early next week. This seems partly due to the interaction of a northern stream shortwave trough lifting across the Great Lakes Friday and into eastern Canada over the weekend. While the two streams remain separate, their influence on one another will determine the placement of the upper low. The latest ECMWF takes the upper low and shears it off with the bulk of the energy moving into the Southeast U.S. The GFS and Canadian have the low track much farther north with the potential for the area to get into the better forcing just north of its track. The ECMWF is a mainly dry forecast with surface ridging remaining in place. Thus, the NBM was followed with some adjustments based on the aforementioned operational run and the latest consensus forecast. This gives the area increasing chances of rain Saturday afternoon/evening through Sunday. Weak high pressure may move into the area on Monday.

There is quite a bit of uncertainty in the forecast over the weekend. There is good reason to expect changes in the forecast with subsequent issuances.

Highs during the period will be closer to normal on Monday, but several degrees below over the weekend due to the chances of rain.
This could very well change due to the differences previously mentioned in the low track. Lows will be on the mild side due to a prolonged period of cloud cover forecast.

AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
A low develops along a warm front off the North Carolina early this morning and then slowly deepens and moves northward, to near the Delmarva by this evening.

MVFR cigs and visibilities are moving into the area this morning, especially for western terminals. Localized IFR for the AM push.
SHRA continues through much of the day though there may be some breaks in the activity this morning. Any IFR cigs largely rise back to MVFR midday before once again lowering to IFR by evening and into Thursday morning.

Low confidence forecast with timing of lowering conditions through the overnight. Also uncertain of ceiling heights.

Light and variable flow becomes SE this morning and increases to around 10 kt. Winds continue to back to the E and then NE through the day, and increasing to around 15kt, mainly along the coast. Some gusts up to 20-25 kt are possible but should be occasional, so did not include in the TAFs at this time.

...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Amendments likely through the TAF period for the timing of changing flight categories due to -SHRA and cigs. Low confidence in timing and duration of IFR cigs this morning.

OUTLOOK FOR 09Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

Wednesday late night: IFR or lower in rain, fog, and stratus.

Thursday: MVFR, possibly improving to VFR late in the day. A chance of showers. NE winds G20kt.

Friday: VFR. Slight chance of a shower late.

Saturday and Sunday: IFR/MVFR possible. Chance of showers. SE winds G15-20kt.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE
Conditions trend from below SCA much of today to SCA level wind gusts late this afternoon along the ocean mostly. Then all waters will have SCA levels gusts tonight through much of Thursday. Some SCA gusts could linger into Thursday night.
Below SCA gusts expected Friday into Friday night.

Seas on the ocean start out below SCA today and then get into SCA range tonight and likely remain at SCA levels thereafter through Friday night. SCA level seas also forecast for extreme Eastern LI Sound tonight into Thursday.

Lingering wave heights near 5 feet on the ocean will result in SCA conditions continuing on Saturday. The waters then look to remain below SCA thresholds through Sunday but exact placement in a low pressure system to the south may change the forecast.

HYDROLOGY
No hydrologic impacts are expected through the beginning of next week.

Rainfall in the Wednesday-Thursday time frame with amounts on average between 0.25 and 1.25 inches. Can not rule out a few isolated higher amounts near 1.5 inches with Long Island being the best spot to see those higher values.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 PM EDT Thursday for ANZ331-332-335-338-340-345.
Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 6 PM EDT Thursday for ANZ350-353-355.

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Plum Gut Harbor, Plum Island, Long Island, New York, Tide feet

The Race
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Wed -- 02:03 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 02:36 AM EDT     1.81 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 05:29 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 05:55 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 07:49 AM EDT     First Quarter
Wed -- 09:00 AM EDT     -2.31 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 12:18 PM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 12:25 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 03:16 PM EDT     1.91 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 06:40 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 08:00 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 09:34 PM EDT     -2.08 knots Max Ebb
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The Race, Long Island Sound, New York Current, knots

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