Wednesday, June20, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Wilton Center, CT

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 5:19AMSunset 8:31PM Wednesday June 20, 2018 8:41 PM EDT (00:41 UTC) Moonrise 1:05PMMoonset 1:09AM Illumination 51% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 8 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ335 Long Island Sound West Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 711 Pm Edt Wed Jun 20 2018
Tonight..S winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming E late. Seas 1 ft or less. Slight chance of rain early this evening, then chance of rain late this evening. Rain after midnight. Vsby 1 to 3 nm late this evening and overnight.
Thu..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of rain in the morning.
Thu night..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Fri..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Fri night..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers after midnight.
Sat..E winds around 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Showers likely.
Sat night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming sw after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of tstms. Showers likely, mainly in the evening.
Sun..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sun night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms.
Mon..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers in the morning.
Mon night..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
ANZ300 711 Pm Edt Wed Jun 20 2018
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. Low pressure riding along a stalled frontal boundary tracks just south of the region tonight. This low exits to the east Thursday morning with weak high pressure building over the region. High pressure retreats to the north and east on Friday as the next frontal system approaches. This frontal system will move across the region this weekend. High pressure returns for next week.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Wilton Center, CT
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location: 41.16, -73.42     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 202356
afdokx
area forecast discussion
national weather service new york ny
756 pm edt Wed jun 20 2018

Synopsis
Low pressure riding along a stalled frontal boundary tracks
just south of the region tonight. This low exits to the east
Thursday morning with weak high pressure building over the
region. High pressure retreats to the north and east on Friday
as the next frontal system approaches. This frontal system will
move across the region this weekend. High pressure returns for
next week.

Near term until 6 am Thursday morning
An upper level shortwave and surface low pressure push across
the region tonight. As a result, clouds will continue to thicken
and lower with rain chances increasing. Rain is then expected
everywhere towards midnight.

Operational nam GFS appear to be initializing to far north with
the deeper convection across northern pa this evening, which is
giving concerns that their QPF axis may be displaced to far
north. There are indication of stronger frontogenetic forcing
developing across lower hudson valley and ct this evening, but
better LLJ forcing, higher pwats (around 2"), and weak
instability are closer to nyc nj metro li. This southward shift
in heavier QPF to LI nyc nj metro has been noted in the last
couple of runs of the hrrr, with light to moderate frontogenetic
rains across lower hud and southern ct.

Forecast has been trended in this drier southward direction,
and may have to be trended further with the next update.

Refer to the hydrology section of the afd for details on
expected rainfall amounts and any impacts.

Lows tonight fall into the 60s.

Short term 6 am Thursday morning through Thursday night
Any precipitation comes to an end Thursday morning, with high
pressure building in from the west. Drier conditions can then
be expected for the remainder of the day. Slowly clearing skies
will lead to partly to mostly sunny day. Daytime highs climb
into the 70s and 80s.

Fair conditions continue Thursday night as high pressure
continues to build into the region. Overnight lows will fall
into the 50s and 60s. A mav met ecs blend was in good agreement
and used for temperatures in the short term.

Long term Friday through Wednesday
The main forecast challenge in the long term revolves around a
frontal system progged to impact the local area this weekend.

The frontal system will be in association with an upper low than
opens up as it lifts into the great lakes region. Ensemble means and
deterministic runs overall agree on the synoptic evolution this
weekend, but there are differences in timing and amplitude of
shortwaves within the upper low trough.

Upper ridging will be in place on Friday and the best forcing will
be located well to the south and west. The upper ridge axis
generally remains in place Friday night as the shortwave approaches.

At the surface, a warm front will approach from the south enhancing
low level warm advection. One of the biggest uncertainties heading
into Saturday revolves around how much surface ridging lingers from
the high pressure to the northeast. The low level easterly flow may
serve to enhance the surface ridging, keeping subsidence and stable
conditions across the region. This may slow the progress of the warm
front a bit as well. At the same time, the upper low and trough are
progged to open up and broaden as the system lifts towards the great
lakes. The main upper trough axis swings through Saturday evening
and Saturday night leaving behind a westerly flow on Sunday. Another
upper trough should cross the region Sunday night into Monday,
finally taking the frontal system offshore.

For sensible weather, dry conditions are forecast on Friday with
gradually increasing pops on Friday night into Saturday morning.

The ECMWF appears quickest to break the surface ridging with the
warm front moving across much quicker than the gfs. Have gone with a
slower progression with likely pops spreading across the area late
Saturday morning into the afternoon. It appears at this time the
best forcing will be with the upper shortwave axis and passage of
the warm front Saturday evening into Saturday night. Little to no
instability is present on model soundings during the day Saturday,
so have removed mention of thunder until Saturday evening and night.

Conditions should dry out Sunday with the region fully in the warm
sector. Westerly flow aloft and a much drier middle and upper
atmosphere prevents anything more than a chance for showers and
thunderstorms with a cold front nearby. The chance for showers and
thunderstorms continues into at least Monday morning with the upper
trough axis passing across. If the timing of the upper trough is
slower, pops may need to be increased on Monday.

While the weekend does not look like a washout, there will be
periods of showers and possible storms Saturday night into Sunday.

Locally heavy rainfall is possible in any convection.

High pressure returns behind the upper trough and frontal system
moving offshore on Monday. The high will be in control through the
middle of the week.

Temperatures average below normal Friday and Saturday and then
above normal on Sunday. Temperatures should then average near
normal for next week.

Aviation 00z Thursday through Monday
A wave of low pressure approaches from eastern ohio this
evening, and then passes near or just south of the terminals
late tonight into Thursday morning. A backdoor cold front moves
into the toward 00z Friday.

Vfr early this evening, then conditions become MVFR as light
rain develops late this evening. Then mainly MVFR conditions
overnight with light to moderate rain. There is a chance of ifr
overnight with moderate to heavy rain, along the coast. Inland
conditions likely remain MVFR. Rain tapers off from west to
east 09z to 12z, then rain ends with improvement toVFR.

There is uncertainty as to the timing and areal extent of MVFR
and ifr overnight and will be dependent on the timing and track
of the low.

S winds 5 to around 10 kt become light and variable for several
hours as the low tracks near the terminals. Then as the low
passes to the south and east the winds will become N to NE 10-15
kt, and potential E Thursday afternoon.

Ny metro enhanced aviation weather support...

detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: http:

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 13 mi41 min SE 1.9 G 1.9 70°F 62°F1008 hPa (-1.0)
44040 - Western Long Island Sound 16 mi41 min S 7.8 G 9.7 73°F 1 ft63°F
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 28 mi41 min SW 4.1 G 5.1 68°F 67°F1008.8 hPa (-0.8)
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 30 mi41 min SSW 11 G 12 72°F 65°F1009.3 hPa (-0.6)
44069 36 mi41 min S 7.8 G 9.7 70°F 76°F70°F
44039 - Central Long Island Sound 41 mi26 min SSW 7.8 G 9.7 71°F
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 45 mi41 min 73°F 67°F1008.9 hPa (-0.6)
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 49 mi41 min SSE 12 G 13 70°F 1008.6 hPa (-0.9)

Wind History for Bridgeport, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Danbury, Danbury Municipal Airport, CT15 mi48 minN 010.00 miFair73°F60°F64%1008.8 hPa
Bridgeport, Sikorsky Memorial Airport, CT15 mi49 minSSE 310.00 miMostly Cloudy72°F62°F71%1008.4 hPa
White Plains - Westchester County Airport, NY17 mi1.8 hrsSSE 310.00 miMostly Cloudy74°F59°F60%1008.1 hPa

Wind History from BDR (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW6NW6N5N10N7NE7NE3CalmN3N4N6N6N6N6E5E7SE5SE4E6E4SE4SE6SE4SE3
1 day ago5
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2 days agoSW5SW6SW4CalmSW4CalmCalmSW4W3W3SW5SW6SW6SW7SW8SW9S14S15S18S18S19
G25
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Tide / Current Tables for South Norwalk, Connecticut
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South Norwalk
Click for Map
Wed -- 01:08 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 05:21 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 05:35 AM EDT     7.50 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:52 AM EDT     First Quarter
Wed -- 12:06 PM EDT     0.04 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 01:05 PM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 06:11 PM EDT     7.81 feet High Tide
Wed -- 08:29 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.41.32.94.76.37.37.46.65.23.61.90.600.51.83.65.57.17.87.56.44.93.21.7

Tide / Current Tables for Rowayton, Fivemile River, Connecticut
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Rowayton
Click for Map
Wed -- 01:08 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 05:21 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 05:26 AM EDT     7.50 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:52 AM EDT     First Quarter
Wed -- 11:56 AM EDT     0.04 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 01:05 PM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 06:02 PM EDT     7.81 feet High Tide
Wed -- 08:29 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.51.53.24.96.57.47.36.44.93.31.70.500.62.13.95.87.27.87.46.24.631.5

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (20,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.