Saturday, November17, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
East Marion, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:40AMSunset 4:30PM Saturday November 17, 2018 10:56 PM EST (03:56 UTC) Moonrise 2:57PMMoonset 1:28AM Illumination 76% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ330 Long Island Sound East Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 922 Pm Est Sat Nov 17 2018
Overnight..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sun..N winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming se in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sun night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of rain after midnight.
Mon..W winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of rain.
Mon night..N winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of rain.
Tue..E winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming nw 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of rain.
Tue night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Wed..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Wed night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Thu..NW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Thu night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
ANZ300 922 Pm Est Sat Nov 17 2018
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. High pressure builds across the waters through Sunday. A frontal boundary will slowly move across late Sunday night into Tuesday morning, with weak areas of low pressure tracking along it. An arctic front will pass Wed night. High pres builds in from the W on thanksgiving.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near East Marion, NY
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location: 41.17, -72.32     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 180229
afdokx
area forecast discussion
national weather service new york ny
929 pm est Sat nov 17 2018

Synopsis
High pressure builds across the waters through Sunday with a
weak warm front approaching Sunday night. A slow moving cold
front will drift south of the region on Monday, followed by the
passage of a weak offshore low on Tuesday. An arctic airmass
will likely build in for the end of the week.

Near term until 6 am Sunday morning
Clouds have been slow to clear this evening with abundant
stratocu across the region. Still think these clouds will
eventually scatter and thin out after midnight, but will begin
to see an increase in mid and high level clouds early Sunday
morning.

A cold front over upstate new york will work south and east,
dissipating as it passes through overnight. It will be a dry
cold frontal passage followed by high pressure building east
from the ohio valley.

Cloud cover has been holding temps warmer than previously
forecast so have adjusted hourly temperatures up a few degrees.

Lows may end up a degree or two warmer than forecast as well,
but should see lows in the upper 20s and lower 30s inland and
low to mid 30s elsewhere.

Short term 6 am Sunday morning through Sunday night
A progressive flow at the base of an upper trough over eastern
canada will send a series of weak frontal waves from the mid
mississippi valley northeast Sunday through Sunday night. Warm
advection coinciding with upper jet dynamics may allow for some
light precipitation to break out across portions of the lower
hudson valley in the afternoon, which gradually works southeast
Sunday night.

Should the precipitation arrive early enough, there is enough
dry air for some light snow across portions of the lower hudson
valley and interior southwest ct. However, weak warm advection
as the high moves offshore Sunday is forecast to warm the
boundary layer enough for a transition over to light rain
during the night. Any accumulation of snow should be light.

Advisory level snows are not expected.

Highs on Sunday will top out in the upper 30s to lower 40s.

There will be some fall off Sunday evening with temperatures
leveling off or slowly rising for the second half of the night.

Long term Monday through Saturday
A slow moving cold front will move sewd thru the area on mon. The
models suggest lgt pcpn, mainly in the form of rain. There could be
pockets of moderate pcpn N of the cold front along the mid lvl
front, so this will need to be watched for a quick dusting of snow
interior late in the day.

As the h5 trof reaches the area and shortwave energy reaches the
front, a weak low is progged to spin up then track newd. All of the
modeling indicates a band of pcpn sweeping thru the cwa. Pops have
been increased to 50 percent. The cold air looks sufficient to be
mainly snow, especially away from the coast.

Fair wx Wed with the CWA between systems. The arctic front however
arrives Wed ngt. The GFS and ECMWF both agree on this timing.

Although the models are dry, some snow shwrs cannot be ruled out.

Pops may need to be included in later forecasts.

Dry wx fcst for thanksgiving thru Sat with a 1040 or so high
building in. Temps well blw average on thanksgiving, then moderating
a bit each day thereafter. Rain possible Sat ngt as a pacific sys
approaches.

Aviation 03z Sunday through Thursday
High pressure will slowly build from the NW into Sunday morning.

The high moves offshore Sunday afternoon with a warm front
approaching Sunday night.

Vfr through Sunday afternoon. There is potential for ceilings
2500-3000 feet Sunday evening.

W-wnw winds diminish through midnight, veering to nw-n
overnight and n-ne daytime Sunday. Winds continue to veer to the
se Sunday afternoon. Speeds will be under 10 kt.

Outlook for 00z Monday through Thursday
Sunday night MVFR or lower conds possible in wintry mix
inland with chance rain elsewhere.

Monday MVFR or lower conds possible with chance of rain.

Monday night-Tuesday MVFR or lower conds possible in rain or
wintry mix Monday night into Tuesday morning, then chance of
rain Tuesday afternoon. NW winds g15-20kt in the afternoon.

Tuesday night-Wednesday Vfr. W winds g15-20kt.

Wednesday night-Thursday Vfr. NW winds 15g25kt.

Marine
Sub-sca conditions on all waters through Sunday night.

Winds and seas blw SCA lvls Mon thru wed, then an arctic front
will bring SCA and possible gales Wed ngt into thu. Winds and
seas then fall blw SCA lvls on fri.

Hydrology
Light QPF amounts of 1 4" or less are possible Sunday night
into Tuesday. No hydrologic issues are expected through
Saturday.

Equipment
Nyc NOAA weather radio station kwo35 (162.55 mhz) will remain off
the air for an extended period of time.

Okx watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ny... None.

Nj... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Jmc dw
near term... Jmc ds dw
short term... Dw
long term... Jmc
aviation... Ds
marine... Jmc dw
hydrology... Jmc dw
equipment...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NLNC3 - 8461490 - New London, CT 18 mi38 min WNW 2.9 G 4.1 40°F 44°F1023.8 hPa
MTKN6 - 8510560 - Montauk, NY 21 mi38 min 46°F 50°F1023.7 hPa
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 32 mi38 min WNW 6 G 7 43°F 52°F1024.5 hPa
44017 - 23 Nautical Miles Southwest of Montauk Point, NY 36 mi66 min WNW 16 G 19 47°F 55°F4 ft1024.1 hPa (+1.3)33°F
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 46 mi44 min NW 1.9 G 4.1 43°F 51°F1024.1 hPa

Wind History for New London, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Chester, Chester Airport, CT18 mi61 minN 010.00 miOvercast41°F28°F61%1023.7 hPa
Groton / New London, Groton / New London Airport, CT18 mi60 minNW 410.00 miOvercast40°F30°F70%1023.6 hPa
Montauk, Montauk Airport, NY22 mi62 minWNW 9 G 16 mi45°F30°F56%1024 hPa

Wind History from GON (wind in knots)
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2 days agoN8N5N6N5N6N5N11NE8NE10N8NE8NE7N7NE7NE8NE8NE11NE11
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Tide / Current Tables for Orient, Long Island Sound, New York
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Orient
Click for Map
Sat -- 12:28 AM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 05:24 AM EST     2.43 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:39 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 11:47 AM EST     0.64 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 01:56 PM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 04:28 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 05:33 PM EST     2.33 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.50.91.41.82.22.42.42.21.91.61.20.80.70.91.31.72.12.32.32.11.81.410.6

Tide / Current Tables for The Race, Long Island Sound, New York Current
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The Race
Click for Map
Sat -- 12:27 AM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 12:29 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 03:16 AM EST     2.04 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 06:38 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 06:45 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 09:42 AM EST     -2.32 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 01:02 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 01:55 PM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 03:43 PM EST     1.93 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 04:27 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 07:03 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 10:03 PM EST     -2.42 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.50.61.521.91.50.8-0.3-1.4-2.2-2.3-1.8-1.1-011.81.91.610.1-1.1-2-2.4-2.1

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (22,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.