Sunrise 5:30 AM   Sunset 8:03 PM Moonrise 11:16 AM   Moonset 1:38 AM

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ANZ330 Long Island Sound East Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 600 Am Edt Tue Mar 30 2021
Today - E winds around 5 kt, becoming S late this morning and afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less. Tonight - S winds around 10 kt. Seas 1 to 2 ft. Wed - S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Chance of showers in the morning, then chance of rain in the afternoon. Wed night - S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm. Thu - W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Showers.Thu night - NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Fri - NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Fri night - NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Sat - W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Sat night - SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.

ANZ300 401 Am Edt Tue May 14 2024
Synopsis for the long island and connecticut coastal waters - A warm front will be well northeast of the waters with a stalled front well west of the waters through today. Low pressure develops along the front and another low approaches from the south tonight into Wednesday. The low to the south of the area gets close Wednesday night into Thursday before moving farther offshore Thursday night. Weak high pressure on Friday will be followed by a frontal system that impacts the waters through the weekend.

FXUS61 KOKX 140807 AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 407 AM EDT Tue May 14 2024

SYNOPSIS
A warm front will be well northeast of the region with a stalled front well west of the region through today. Low pressure develops along the front and another low approaches from the south tonight into Wednesday. The low to the south of the area gets close Wednesday night into Thursday before moving farther offshore Thursday night. Weak high pressure on Friday will be followed by a frontal system that impacts the area through the weekend. Brief high pressure may once again move in by early next week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
Mid level ridging stops and becomes more troughing today.

Embedded shortwave and associated positive vorticity advection traverse the area today.

Expecting increasing clouds through the day with steady southerly surface flow.

GFS depicts surface CAPE of a few hundred J/kg across interior locations today into early this evening.

NAM depicts more surface CAPE (near 500 to 900 J/kg) than the GFS across the interior today into early this evening.

CAMs show some shower and possible thunderstorm activity moving in to mainly western parts of the region mid part of this afternoon into early this evening.

Temperatures a blend of MOS and blends of guidance, well into the 70s for highs away from the coast.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
Low pressure approaching brings more showers tonight and eventually a transition to more stratiform rain is expected Wednesday into Thursday as low pressure moves south of the region. Low levels look to remain stable enough to not include any mention of thunderstorms.

Model changes in solution are quite drastic regarding the 00Z NAM versus the 12Z NAM where the 00Z solution depicts hardly any measurable rain through Thursday night. This has trended drier than previous runs.

It appears overall the low has shifted farther south compared to previous forecast, shifting a bulk of the rain farther south compared to the previous forecast as well. If the trend to the south with this low continues, look for a trend downward with respect to POPs and rainfall in subsequent forecasts.

The low appears to moves farther southeast of the region Thursday night, allowing for chances of rain to decrease.

During this timeframe, expecting less of a diurnal temperature range with a more maritime airmass developing. Highs Wednesday and Thursday mostly in the 60s while lows each night are mostly in the 50s.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
Brief upper level ridging remains in place over the area on Friday between an occluded low being reintroduced to the large-scale flow and an approaching trough. This will likely result in mainly dry conditions for Friday. By Friday night, the area will begin to feel impacts of the approaching low pressure system to the west. Onshore S/SE flow will allow for the increase of moisture and result in the beginning of showery activity into Saturday.

The low pressure approaching from the west will become cut-off from the flow over the East Coast. Global models differ greatly in the positioning of the cut-off low and resulting unsettled conditions.
the CMC and GFS have the low spinning over the area through the beginning of next week with unsettled weather and on and off showers through the period. The ECMWF suppresses the low to the south with high pressure from the northeast nosing in, resulting in mainly dry conditions. The extended forecast remains low confidence but the variability in the handling of the surface low pressure will result in unsettled weather through at least the weekend, so a chance of showers exists through the entire long term period.

Temperatures will be at or slightly below average, despite generally cloudy and showery conditions. Highs each day will be in the middle 60s to the middle 70s. Lows will generally be in the middle to upper 50s.

AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
High pressure remains offshore this morning, then moves into the Atlantic as low pressure slowly approaches from the southwest into the afternoon and tonight.

VFR through this evening. There is a slight chance of showers late this afternoon at KSWF, however, confidence on timing is low.
Chances for showers increases into the NYC metro terminals during the evening and tonight. MVFR cigs move into the terminals (western terminals initially) tonight and into early Wednesday morning.
Widely scattered light showers will be possible through tonight.

Southerly flow under 10kt continues into this morning before increasing to 10-15kt by early afternoon. Any gusts that do occur this afternoon will be occasional.

...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

No unscheduled amendments expected through this afternoon.

OUTLOOK FOR 09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

Tuesday late night: MVFR developing with a low chance of showers.

Wednesday: MVFR or lower likely in rain. Rain diminishes late at night. NE winds G15-20kt.

Thursday: Mainly VFR. A chance of showers. NE winds G20kt.

Friday: VFR. Slight chance of a shower late.

Saturday: MVFR possible. Chance of showers. SE winds G15-20kt.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE
Conditions are forecast to remain below SCA thresholds on all waters through Wednesday. For Wednesday night, SCA conditions are more probable on the ocean while non-ocean waters will probably remain below SCA. For Thursday, most waters could receive SCA level gusts and by this point the seas are forecast to build to SCA levels as well. The ocean zones are probable to have SCA level conditions Thursday night while non-ocean zones are probably below SCA.

Marginal wind gusts near 20-25 kt persist on the ocean Friday with wave heights 5-7 feet, so SCA condition appear likely. Wave heights drop below SCA threshold by Saturday night and remain below SCA conditions through the weekend.

HYDROLOGY
No hydrologic problems are expected through the beginning of next week.

The rain in the short term is expected to be mostly light and prolonged. Total rainfall forecast is generally between 0.25 and 0.75 inch tonight through Thursday with the possibility that some locations may not receive rain.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

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Orient
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Tue -- 01:37 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 03:31 AM EDT     2.61 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:31 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 10:15 AM EDT     0.45 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 11:15 AM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 04:23 PM EDT     2.26 feet High Tide
Tue -- 08:00 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 10:35 PM EDT     0.78 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Orient, Long Island Sound, New York, Tide feet

The Race
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Tue -- 01:35 AM EDT     2.01 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 01:36 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 04:55 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 05:30 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:03 AM EDT     -2.50 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 11:14 AM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 11:29 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 02:16 PM EDT     1.98 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 05:42 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 07:59 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 08:35 PM EDT     -2.08 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 11:51 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

The Race, Long Island Sound, New York Current, knots

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