Sunrise 5:43 AM   Sunset 7:45 PM Moonrise 1:45 AM   Moonset 10:44 AM

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ANZ237 Block Island Sound- 104 Pm Edt Tue Apr 30 2024
This afternoon - E winds around 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Wave detail: se 2 ft at 5 seconds and E 1 ft at 11 seconds. Tonight - NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt in the evening. Seas around 2 ft. Wave detail: se 2 ft at 5 seconds and E 1 ft at 10 seconds. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 nm or less. Wed - NE winds around 10 kt, becoming E in the afternoon. Seas around 2 ft. Wave detail: ne 2 ft at 4 seconds and S 2 ft at 6 seconds. Patchy fog in the morning with vsby 1 to 3 nm. Wed night - SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: se 2 ft at 6 seconds and E 1 ft at 11 seconds. Thu - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Wave detail: se 2 ft at 6 seconds and E 1 ft at 11 seconds. Thu night - SW winds around 10 kt, becoming N after midnight. Seas around 2 ft. Wave detail: sw 2 ft at 6 seconds and E 1 ft at 6 seconds. Fri through Sat night - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.

ANZ200 104 Pm Edt Tue Apr 30 2024
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters - A few widely isolated showers and Thunder this morning and drier this afternoon. A decaying low pressure system brings light rain to the waters overnight and into Wednesday. Another chance for light rain on Thursday, primarily for the northern waters, then drier on Friday. Looking head, unsettled conditions persist into the upcoming weekend.

FXUS61 KBOX 301920 AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 320 PM EDT Tue Apr 30 2024

SYNOPSIS
An approaching cold front will bring another round of showers to the region tonight with a few embedded thunderstorms possible across interior Massachusetts and Connecticut. Considerable cloudiness persists on Wednesday, but peeks of sunshine too, especially in the afternoon. Unsettled mid to late this week due to a backdoor cold front nearby. This could bring spotty showers and keep us a bit cooler, but there is a significant amount of uncertainty with the fronts location. Better shot for more widespread showers late Saturday into Sunday as a frontal system slides through.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
* Showers/isolated t-storms move into western MA/CT after 7-8 pm and reach the I-95 corridor after 10-11 pm in a weakened fashion

An approaching shortwave/cold front coupled with diurnal heating was allowing showers and embedded thunderstorms to develop this afternoon across NY State & PA. As this shortwave/cold front moves east, expect showers to enter western MA & CT after 7-8 pm this evening. The environment across our region is not as favorable though given the marine layer in place. So while we may still a rumble or two of thunder across interior MA & CT with a few brief downpours, expect a weakening trend. So will just stick with showers across eastern MA/RI where the activity will not enter the region after 10-11 pm.

The bulk of the showers should come to an end toward morning, but a few showers may linger through daybreak especially towards the southeast New England coast. Overnight low temps should mainly be in the 40s to near 50 with some patchy fog possible.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
Key Points...

* Considerable cloudiness Wed but a few peeks of sunshine too * Highs Wed...50s coast, 60s inland & near 70 in parts of CT

Details...

Wednesday...

A few lingering showers possible early Wednesday morning across southeast New England, but departing shortwave/front will bring a quick end to this activity by mid to late morning. Otherwise, a wave of low pressure passing to our south coupled with high pressure across eastern Canada will generate a continued moist NE low level flow. We expect a fair amount of cloudiness around but a few peeks of sunshine especially in the afternoon.
Generally dry weather will prevail for most of Wednesday with the lack of synoptic scale forcing, but a few spot showers can not be ruled out.

Given the onshore flow, temperatures will vary considerably.
Highs should be held in the 50s along the immediate coast, to 60s further inland, while areas near the lower CT River Valley will top off around 70. These temperatures may need to be fine tuned depending on the amount of solar insolation and onshore flow.

Wednesday night...

A northern stream shortwave will be dropping southward from Quebec into northern New England Wed night. The better dynamics/forcing will remain to our north where we expect most of the precipitation. However, we may see a few showers develop mainly across our northern zones toward daybreak Thu. Overnight low temps should mainly be in the 40s.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
Highlights:

* Good amount of uncertainty during this portion of the forecast with timing and exact location of showers.

* Backdoor cold front on Friday. This could bring spotty showers and keep us a bit cooler, but there is a significant amount of uncertainty with the fronts location.

* Unsettled with rain chances continuing late this weekend as a front moves across the region.

Have the greatest confidence in the forecast into the first part of this weekend. Then there are significant difference in the larger synoptic pattern features into the middle of next week.
Expecting a fairly active pattern through most of next week.
This is leading to uncertainty, especially with the timing and location of these showers. That is not unusual for this time of year.

Some signs that a high pressure ridge off the east coast of MA.
How strong this high pressure will be is a factor to monitor.
Should this ridge be stronger, then we may get through most of this weekend dry. More likely to see showers some time late Saturday into Sunday. Trending drier early next week, but again uncertainty regarding the timing details.

Thinking temperatures should be near to slightly below normal into this weekend. Odds favor a switch to above normal temperatures early next week.

AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
Forecast Confidence Levels:

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Through tonight...Moderate Confidence.

Mainly VFR conditions into early evening, but a cooling boundary layer should result in MVFR-IFR conditions developing tonight with even some localized LIFR conditions given moist onshore flow. Another round of showers will move in from the west after 23z/00z. We can not rule out isolated thunder with it briefly across the distant interior, but we expect a weakening trend as the activity pushes east into a less favorable environment. So for much of the region mainly just showers, but a few downpours are also possible. A few showers linger especially towards the Cape/Islands through daybreak, but the vast majority of the activity will have passed the region by 06z/07z. E winds shifting to the NE at 5 to 10 knots tonight.

Wednesday...Moderate Confidence.

IFR-LIFR conditions early Wed morning will gradually improve to MVFR and even VFR conditions in some spots through the afternoon, but this will be a slow process and timing will need to be refined. After any remaining showers depart early Wed morning, mainly dry weather will prevail Wed other than perhaps a brief spot shower. NE winds 5 to 10 knots.

Wednesday night...Moderate Confidence.

MVFR-IFR conditions will probably become dominant again as the boundary layer cools again Wed night. A few showers may spill into our northern zones through daybreak Thu, but much of Wed night will feature dry weather with nothing more than a spot shower. Winds becoming light S.

KBOS TAF...Moderate Confidence in TAF.

KBDL TAF...Moderate Confidence in TAF.

Outlook /Thursday through Sunday/...

Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy. Slight chance SHRA.

Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible.

Friday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible.

Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible.

Saturday through Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA.

Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.

MARINE
Forecaster Confidence Levels:

Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Tonight through Wednesday night...High Confidence.

A weak pressure gradient will keep winds/seas below Small Craft Advisory thresholds through Wed night. E winds shift to the NE at 5 to 15 knots tonight and Wed, but then will become light S tonight.

Outlook /Thursday through Sunday/...

Thursday: Winds less than 25 kt. Chance of rain showers.

Thursday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Slight chance of rain showers.

Friday through Friday Night: Winds less than 25 kt.

Saturday through Saturday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Slight chance of rain showers.

Sunday: Winds less than 25 kt. Chance of rain showers.

BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...None.

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Block Island (Great Salt Pond)
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Tue -- 05:44 AM EDT     Sunrise
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