Monday, November20, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Quonochontaug, RI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:41AMSunset 4:25PM Monday November 20, 2017 12:57 AM EST (05:57 UTC) Moonrise 9:21AMMoonset 7:17PM Illumination 2% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 1 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ237 Block Island Sound- 1039 Pm Est Sun Nov 19 2017
.small craft advisory in effect through Monday afternoon...
Overnight..W winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
Mon..W winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
Mon night..W winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Tue..SW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
Tue night..SW winds 20 to 25 kt, diminishing to 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Gusts up to 35 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft. A chance of showers.
Wed..SW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming nw 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Showers likely.
Wed night..N winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 30 kt, decreasing to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Thu..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Thu night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Fri..NW winds around 10 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Fri night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.
ANZ200 1039 Pm Est Sun Nov 19 2017
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters.. Strong 979 mb low pres over the maritimes this evening will continue to provide near wnw gales through Monday. High pres then builds across the waters Tue followed by another cold front moving across new england Wed. High pressure then builds over the waters Thu. For information on possible hazardous weather beyond the 24-36 hour forecast period, please visit www.weather.gov/boston and follow the current hazards link above the map on the left.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Quonochontaug, RI
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location: 41.19, -71.58     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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Fxus61 kbox 200311
afdbox
area forecast discussion
national weather service taunton ma
1011 pm est Sun nov 19 2017

Synopsis
Blustery and cold conditions will prevail tonight into Monday.

Winds shift to southwest with milder temperatures Tuesday,
followed by a cold front sweeping across the region that will
bring showers late Tuesday night and Wednesday morning. Dry and
colder conditions expected late Wednesday through the end of the
week. Much colder weather spills into the region this weekend.

Near term until 6 am Monday morning
10 pm update...

lake effect snow machine is on with a fairly impressive band
down the mohawk valley into the albany, ny area and not spilling
into the southern berkshires and litchfield hills of northwest
ct. New 00z NAM simulating this band very well so will follow
this guidance closely, which has the band holding together and
moving across ct, possibly into western-central ma and maybe
surviving into ri overnight. Not expecting much if any
accumulation but vsby may briefly lower along with a quick
dusting or coating, while neighboring towns don t receive any
snow. Just the nature of these narrow mesoscale bands.

Therefore the only change to the forecast was to focus
pops QPF light snow amounts overnight will be across
ct western-central ma and into ri. Remainder of the forecast is
on track. Earlier discussion below.

Previous discussion...

secondary mid level trough and shortwave moves into new eng
tonight with cooling temps aloft. 500 mb temps down to -35c by
12z mon. This combined with some moistening of the column in
the low and mid levels may result in a few flurries or snow
showers, mainly western ma and northern ct where some lake
effect moisture may spill into the region. Hi-res guidance just
showing some spotty light QPF so continued slight chc pops in
the west.

While peak of the wind will be diminishing tonight, it will
remain blustery with gusts 25-30 mph at times as cold advection
continues. Lows mid 20s to lower 30s but the wind will make it
feel considerably colder.

Short term 6 am Monday morning through Monday night
Monday...

mid level trough exits the region with high pres building south
of new eng. It will be a dry day, but area of low and mid level
moisture moving through will result in sct-bkn CU developing.

850 mb temps starting out -10 to -12c with some moderation in
the afternoon. Chilly day with highs ranging from mid 30s
interior high terrain to lower 40s coastal plain. Strong
pressure gradient remains in place so it will be another windy
day. Soundings are well mixed in the lower levels and suggest
potential for gusts 30-40 mph at times, especially through 18z.

Strongest gusts expected over interior northern ma.

Monday night...

high pres moves off mid atlc coast with area of mid level
moisture lifting to the north so expect mostly clear skies.

Winds will be diminishing and backing to the SW and there will
still be enough gradient so not as cold as it otherwise would
be if winds were calm. Generally followed a blend of mos
guidance for min temps. Temps will likely slowly rise
overnight along the south coast and CAPE islands.

Long term Tuesday through Sunday
Highlights...

* warm but windy for Tuesday
* cold frontal passage on Wednesday will drop temps through the
day with showers.

* dry but chilly for thanksgiving day
pattern overview confidence...

building high pressure over baja california will push the ridge into
the western CONUS for next week. This in combination of the blocking
high over northeastern canada and greenland will favor east coast
troughing through the period. 12z models and their ensembles are in
good agreement on the large scale pattern. However, some differences
will remain on timing and amplitude of each wave. Overall trend in
the forecast for southern new england will be wet weather for
Wednesday with drying trend into the end of the week. Will have to
continue to watch the weekend as with offshore low to the east and
approaching system from the west and how those two systems will
impact each other. Otherwise temperatures will trend below average
for the week.

Details...

Tuesday into Wednesday... High confidence.

Mid-level ridge will build over the region on Tuesday as winds
switch to the SW and WAA returns. Temperatures will warm within this
southwesterly wind as 50's return back to the region. A few sites
may be near 60f depending on how much mixing occurs. Approaching
cold front from the west will result in a developing LLJ with 925mb
winds reaching 40-45 kts. Once again another windy day on Tuesday.

Cold front from the great lakes will pass through the region on
Wednesday. A coastal low off the coast of the carolinas appears to
ride along or out ahead of the front. Latest guidance continues to
trend this low closer to the region, thus allowing for more moisture
in the mid-levels. The GFS appears to be on the slow end of the
developing low, thus not capturing enough moisture when the front
moves through. Therefore trended with the ec ukmet NAM for this
portion of the forecast. Precip will begin to overspread the region
overnight and result in widespread rainfall Wed morning. Highest
confidence is south and east of i-95, closer to the mid-level
moisture. Regardless appears that most of the region will see some
rainfall, which highest amounts closer to SE ma.

One thing we will have to watch on Wednesday is the available
moisture and timing of the caa. Some guidance indicates that a few
flakes can fly on the backside of the front. Uncertain on if there
will be moisture. Regardless, trend is only trace to less than if it
does accumulate on the roads.

Thanksgiving into Friday... High confidence.

Behind the front on Wednesday, CAA will move back into the region
for Thursday. High pressure will move south of the region resulting
in a chilly but dry day for thanksgiving.

Passing shortwave to the north Friday morning may bring in some
clouds, but another dry but more seasonable day.

The weekend... Low confidence.

High pressure and mid-level ridge Friday night will lead to a
warming trend on Saturday. Winds will back to the southwest as
another front from the west approaches. Behind this system
anomolous cold air will spill into the region putting temps well
below average. While a few waves will move through this period,
overall precip looks light.

Aviation 03z Monday through Friday
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Monday night ... High confidence.

03z update...

only change will be to insert vcsh (snow showers) at bdl baf and
possibly orh overnight as lake effect snow bands from ny state
spill into ct, western-central ma and possibly into ri.

Otherwise previous tafs remain on track. Earlier discussion
below.

=====================================================================
tonight...VFR with sct-bkn CIGS 040-050 developing. A few lake
effect snow showers may spill into western ma and northern ct
tonight. W NW winds diminishing but remaining gusty with 25-30
kt gusts.

Monday...VFR. Sct-bkn CIGS 050-060. West gusts 25-35 kt.

Monday night...VFR. Diminishing wind.

Kbos terminal... High confidence in taf.

Kbdl terminal... High confidence in taf.

Outlook Tuesday through Friday ...

Tuesday:VFR. Windy with gusts to 30 kt.

Tuesday night: mainlyVFR, with areas MVFR possible. Windy with
gusts to 35 kt. Chance shra.

Wednesday: mainlyVFR, with areas MVFR possible. Breezy. Shra
likely.

Wednesday night:VFR. Breezy.

Thanksgiving day through Friday:VFR.

Marine
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Monday night ...

near gale force gusts will continue tonight. Winds may diminish
below gale for a time tonight but another surge of stronger
winds expected by Mon morning. As a result we extended the gales
into Monday for most of the waters. Winds gradually diminish
mon night to near 25 kt.

Outlook Tuesday through Friday ...

Tuesday: low risk for gale force winds with gusts up to 35 kt.

Areas of rough seas.

Tuesday night: low risk for gale force winds with gusts up to
35 kt. Areas of rough seas. Rain showers likely.

Wednesday: low risk for small craft advisory winds with gusts
up to 25 kt. Local rough seas. Rain showers likely.

Wednesday night: low risk for small craft advisory winds with
gusts up to 25 kt. Areas of rough seas.

Thanksgiving day: winds less than 25 kt. Areas of rough seas.

Thursday night through Friday: winds less than 25 kt. Seas up
to 5 ft.

Box watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ma... None.

Ri... None.

Marine... Gale warning until 2 pm est Monday for anz232>235-255-256.

Gale warning until 6 pm est Monday for anz231-250-251-254.

Synopsis... Kjc dunten
near term... Kjc nocera dunten
short term... Kjc
long term... Dunten
aviation... Kjc nocera dunten
marine... Kjc dunten


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MTKN6 - 8510560 - Montauk, NY 22 mi40 min 46°F 52°F1006.2 hPa
NWPR1 - 8452660 - Newport, RI 26 mi40 min W 9.9 G 14 40°F 52°F1005.7 hPa
LDLC3 - New London Ledge CT - Ledge Light Weather 28 mi28 min WNW 15 G 18 41°F 1005.7 hPa27°F
QPTR1 - 8454049 - Quonset Point, RI 29 mi46 min W 5.1 G 8.9 39°F 50°F1006.1 hPa
NLNC3 - 8461490 - New London, CT 29 mi40 min WNW 1.9 G 8 38°F 54°F1006.4 hPa
PRUR1 32 mi40 min 40°F 26°F
BUZM3 - Buzzards Bay, MA 32 mi58 min W 29 G 32 41°F 1005.7 hPa (+1.8)
PTCR1 - 8452951 - Potter Cove, Prudence Island, RI 33 mi40 min WNW 7 G 13 38°F 1005.7 hPa
NAXR1 - Narragansett Bay Reserve, RI 33 mi73 min WNW 8.9 39°F 988 hPa26°F
CPTR1 - 8452944 - Conimicut Light, RI 38 mi46 min W 12 G 16 39°F 50°F1005.4 hPa
FRXM3 41 mi40 min 41°F 29°F
PVDR1 42 mi40 min W 6 G 9.9 39°F 1005.5 hPa25°F
BLTM3 - 8447387 - Borden Flats Light at Fall River, MA 42 mi40 min W 17 G 20 41°F 1004.5 hPa
FRVM3 - 8447386 - Fall River, MA 42 mi40 min 41°F 49°F1005.9 hPa
FOXR1 - 8454000 - Providence, RI 44 mi46 min NW 8 G 13 39°F 50°F1005 hPa

Wind History for Newport, RI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Block Island State Airport, RI1 mi62 minWNW 11 G 2210.00 miA Few Clouds42°F28°F58%1006.8 hPa
Westerly, Westerly State Airport, RI16 mi65 minN 010.00 miFair39°F26°F60%1006.5 hPa
Montauk, Montauk Airport, NY20 mi4.1 hrsWNW 12 G 21 mi46°F28°F50%1005.1 hPa

Wind History from BID (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW19
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1 day agoNW5NW4W3W5W4W4SW5W6W9W6SW6SW14SW14SW15
G21
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2 days agoNW11
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NW7NW8

Tide / Current Tables for Block Island (Great Salt Pond), Rhode Island
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Block Island (Great Salt Pond)
Click for Map
Mon -- 01:46 AM EST     -0.04 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:40 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:20 AM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 08:36 AM EST     3.00 feet High Tide
Mon -- 02:26 PM EST     0.06 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 04:23 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 06:16 PM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 08:57 PM EST     2.49 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.50.1-00.20.61.11.82.42.932.51.810.40.10.10.30.71.21.82.32.52.31.7

Tide / Current Tables for Moonstone Beach, Rhode Island
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Moonstone Beach
Click for Map
Mon -- 02:14 AM EST     -0.10 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:40 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:20 AM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 08:42 AM EST     3.29 feet High Tide
Mon -- 02:58 PM EST     -0.01 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 04:22 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 06:16 PM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 09:02 PM EST     2.71 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.60.1-0.1-00.30.91.72.63.23.32.92.11.20.50.1-00.10.51.11.82.52.72.51.9

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
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GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Boston, MA (0,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Boston, MA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.