Wednesday, March20, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Quonochontaug, RI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:49AMSunset 7:00PM Wednesday March 20, 2019 7:09 PM EDT (23:09 UTC) Moonrise 6:38PMMoonset 6:54AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 15 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ237 Block Island Sound- 357 Pm Edt Wed Mar 20 2019
.small craft advisory in effect from Thursday evening through Friday afternoon...
Tonight..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft early, then 1 foot or less, then, then around 2 ft after midnight.
Thu..SE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 4 ft. A chance of rain in the afternoon.
Thu night..E winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas around 5 ft, building to 7 ft after midnight. Patchy fog. Rain. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Fri..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, becoming W 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 6 to 7 ft. Patchy fog in the morning. Rain likely in the morning with vsby 1 nm or less.
Fri night..W winds 15 to 20 kt, increasing to 20 to 25 kt after midnight. Gusts up to 40 kt. Seas around 7 ft. A chance of showers.
Sat..W winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 45 kt. Seas 6 to 7 ft.
Sat night..NW winds 20 to 25 kt, diminishing to 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Gusts up to 35 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft.
Sun..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Sun night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, becoming W 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Mon..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Mon night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming N 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A chance of showers in the evening. Seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.
ANZ200 357 Pm Edt Wed Mar 20 2019
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters.. High pres will shift east of the waters tonight. A gale center develops off the mid atlc coast late Thursday then heads ne Thu night, lifting over se mass early Fri. The gale will intensify into a storm Fri night along the maine coast. This powerful storm lingers near the maine coast Sat before finally exiting ne Sat night. High pres builds across the mid atlc waters Sun. For information on possible hazardous weather beyond the 24-36 hour forecast period, please visit www.weather.gov/boston and follow the current hazards link above the map on the left.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Quonochontaug, RI
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location: 41.19, -71.58     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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Fxus61 kbox 202247
afdbox
area forecast discussion
national weather service boston norton ma
647 pm edt Wed mar 20 2019

Synopsis
High pressure remains in control of our weather tonight. A
coastal storm impacts the region late Thursday into Friday with
periods of rain, heavy at times, and stronger winds. Low
pressure departs through the maritimes Friday, bringing gusty
winds to southern new england. High pressure then builds drier
air in for the weekend. A cold front sweeps south from canada
Sunday night and Monday bringing showers. High pressure buidls
colder air in from canada early next week.

Near term until 6 am Thursday morning
No change to the current forecast.

The center of a high pressure has moved offshore and was south
of nova scotia at 6 pm. Trailing shortwave ridge moves across
southern new england Thursday morning. The spread between
temperature and dew point was 20-30f at 6 pm, and while this
will narrow overnight it is still an appreciable range to
overcome as we watch precipitation move in from upstream.

We continue to expect the high pressure to maintain dry weather
through the night. Increasing cirrus clouds overnight.

Short term 6 am Thursday morning through Thursday night
Dry weather to start Thursday, and most of the eastern half of
southern new england may be dry through the day. There will be
an increasing risk for precipitation from west to east,
especially during the afternoon. Any precipitation will likely
fall as rain, and will be most likely west of the ct river by
late Thursday afternoon. With some sunshine to start, and a S to
se wind, should see temperatures near to slightly above normal
away from the immediate coastline.

Surface low pressure from the mid atlantic should move over the
eastern half of southern new england Thursday night. Track of
the closed low at both 925 mb and 850 mb suggests this will be
mainly a rain event, with some wet snow possible towards the
higher terrain of the berkshires. Precipitable water remains
about 1-2 standard deviations above normal. Expecting rainfall
of 0.5-1.00 inches, with locally higher amounts should any
convection develop. Any instability would be elevated, and
should only enhance rainfall rates.

Long term Friday through Wednesday
Big picture...

on the longwave scale, hudson's bay upper low maintains cyclonic
flow over the northeast usa through the weekend. The flow then
becomes more zonal next week. At shorter scales, closed upper low
sweeps from northern ontario over new england Friday with heights
that are 2-3 std deviations below normal. The low then moves off
through the maritimes on Saturday. Heights then return to near
normal or a little above during the weekend.

Expect that temperatures will trend to seasonably mild levels over
the weekend. Differences in timing a cold front coming south from
canada early next week, but agreement that a cold front moves
through, followed by colder temperatures the first half of the week.

Confidence is moderate over the weekend and low-moderate early next
week.

Concerns...

Friday-Saturday...

the coastal weather system moves north of our area, allowing drier
air to move in. Expect any lingering rain to taper off, although
scattered showers possible through the afternoon. Breaks of Sun late
in the day. Winds to 25 knots aloft will be available to mix to the
surface in gusts.

The central pressure of the weather system will also be deepening,
which should tighten the pressure gradient and lead to increasing
wind. The strongest pressure rises are expected Saturday, with 1-2
mb hour rates. Adding to that, the upper low and its cold pool sweep
overhead Friday night and Saturday morning. The strong vertical
temperature lapse rates should mix strong northwest winds to the
surface in gusts. Cross-sections show 35-40 knot winds aloft in the
mixed layer Saturday. As usual, guidance underplays these
values... We will nudge wind gust guidance up about 5 knots. Moisture
cross sections show deep moisture the first half of Saturday,
especially during the time of strong lapse rates. Expect at least
partly cloudy skies Saturday with periods of mostly cloudy possible.

Sunday through Wednesday...

high pressure builds for Sunday. Temps in the mixed layer suggest
max temps in the 50s
consensus on a cold frontal passage Monday. The ECMWF shows fropa
early Monday morning, while the GFS shows passage Monday
afternoon evening and the ggem aims for early Monday night. Some
models keep the supporting upper jet up on the canadian border,
while others show the right entrance region of the northern jet
reaching down over southern new england. We will maintain chance
pops for showers Monday afternoon evening.

That right entrance region may generate a wave on the front,
delaying the departure of the showers Monday night. Otherwise, high
pressure builds south from canada with cooler, drier air for Tuesday
and Wednesday.

Aviation 00z Thursday through Monday
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Thursday night ... High confidence.

Tonight...VFR, dry weather and light ssw winds.

Thursday...VFR and dry to start the day with MVFR arriving in
the afternoon across western ma ct along with increasing chances
of light rain. Increasing ese winds.

Thursday night... Mainly ifr, with local MVFR possible. Breezy.

Widespread -ra ra with patchy fg.

Kbos terminal... High confidence in taf. Timing for the end of
the seabreeze may be off by an hour.

Kbdl terminal... High confidence in taf.

Outlook Friday through Monday ...

Friday: mainly MVFR, with areas ifr possible. Windy with gusts
up to 30 kt. Chance shra, patchy fg.

Friday night: MVFR ifr conditions possible. Strong winds with
local gusts up to 40 kt. Chance shsn, chance shra.

Saturday:VFR. Strong winds with gusts up to 40 kt.

Saturday night:VFR. Windy with gusts up to 30 kt.

Sunday:VFR. Breezy.

Sunday night:VFR.

Monday: mainlyVFR. Slight chance shra.

Marine
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Thursday night ... High confidence.

Rather light winds and seas will continue through Thursday
morning. An approaching low pressure Thursday afternoon will
pass through our region Thursday night. Winds increase Thursday
afternoon into Thursday night. Small craft advisories will be
needed. Depending upon timing for the strengthening of this low
pressure, might see some gusts to gale force. Have much greater
confidence in gusts 25-30 kt at this time.

Widespread rain develops Thursday afternoon into Thursday
night, resulting in poor visibility at times.

Outlook Friday through Monday ...

Friday: low risk for small craft advisory winds with gusts up
to 30 kt. Rough seas up to 11 ft. Chance of rain showers. Local
visibility 1 nm or less.

Friday night: moderate risk for gale force winds with gusts up
to 40 kt. Rough seas up to 13 ft. Chance of rain showers,
chance of snow showers. Local visibility 1 to 3 nm.

Saturday: moderate risk for gale force winds with local gusts
up to 45 kt. Rough seas up to 13 ft.

Saturday night: low risk for gale force winds with gusts up to
35 kt. Areas of rough seas.

Sunday: low risk for small craft advisory winds with gusts up
to 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.

Sunday night: winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching
5 ft.

Monday: winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.

Slight chance of rain showers.

Tides coastal flooding
Seeing a decent signal for onshore winds overnight Thursday into
Friday. Peak surge looks to occur just after the timing of low
tide early Fri morning per latest ensembles. However, lingering
surge or a slower timing could lead to create coastal impacts.

At this time, thinking pockets of minor coastal flooding are
most likely. Astronomical tides are rather high, about 11.7 ft
mllw in boston. The Friday morning early afternoon high tide
looks to be the high tide of greatest concern along the east
coast, with the Friday morning high tide the concern for the
south coast.

Box watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ma... None.

Ri... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory from 9 pm Thursday to 6 pm edt Friday for
anz232>234.

Small craft advisory from midnight Thursday night to 6 pm edt
Friday for anz231-251.

Small craft advisory from 6 pm Thursday to 6 pm edt Friday for
anz235-237-254-255.

Small craft advisory from 8 pm Thursday to 6 pm edt Friday for
anz250.

Small craft advisory from 1 pm Thursday to 6 pm edt Friday for
anz256.

Synopsis... Wtb belk
near term... Wtb belk
short term... Belk
long term... Wtb
aviation... Wtb belk
marine... Wtb belk
tides coastal flooding...

climate...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MTKN6 - 8510560 - Montauk, NY 22 mi40 min 42°F 42°F1027.4 hPa
NWPR1 - 8452660 - Newport, RI 26 mi46 min SSW 14 G 19 41°F 39°F1027.1 hPa
LDLC3 - New London Ledge CT - Ledge Light Weather 28 mi120 min SSW 16 G 18 44°F 1021.8 hPa29°F
44097 - Block Island, RI (154) 28 mi40 min 42°F2 ft
NLNC3 - 8461490 - New London, CT 29 mi40 min S 6 G 11 44°F 42°F1026.9 hPa
QPTR1 - 8454049 - Quonset Point, RI 29 mi46 min SSW 16 G 19 43°F 43°F1027 hPa
BUZM3 - Buzzards Bay, MA 32 mi70 min S 19 G 20 1028.4 hPa (-1.1)
PRUR1 32 mi40 min 42°F 34°F
NAXR1 - Narragansett Bay Reserve, RI 33 mi85 min SSW 9.9 44°F 1027 hPa27°F
PTCR1 - 8452951 - Potter Cove, Prudence Island, RI 33 mi46 min WSW 9.9 G 15 42°F 1027.2 hPa
CPTR1 - 8452944 - Conimicut Light, RI 38 mi40 min S 19 G 21 42°F 42°F
FRXM3 41 mi46 min 43°F 26°F
FRVM3 - 8447386 - Fall River, MA 42 mi40 min 43°F 42°F1027.2 hPa
BLTM3 - 8447387 - Borden Flats Light at Fall River, MA 42 mi40 min SSW 14 G 18 43°F 1026.9 hPa
PVDR1 42 mi40 min SSW 14 G 18 45°F 1026.5 hPa28°F
44017 - 23 Nautical Miles Southwest of Montauk Point, NY 42 mi80 min SSE 9.7 G 12 42°F 42°F1 ft1027.7 hPa (-1.2)36°F
FOXR1 - 8454000 - Providence, RI 44 mi46 min SSW 9.9 G 15 45°F 40°F1025.9 hPa

Wind History for Newport, RI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Block Island State Airport, RI1 mi74 minS 1010.00 miFair42°F34°F73%1028 hPa
Westerly, Westerly State Airport, RI16 mi77 minS 1110.00 miFair45°F32°F61%1027.2 hPa
Montauk, Montauk Airport, NY20 mi76 minS 7 mi43°F33°F68%1027.8 hPa

Wind History from BID (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW10SW8SW6SW6W5W6W6W5W4NW4CalmCalmCalmS5S8S9S12S12S14S12S13--S10S10
1 day agoW8W6SW6W4N4--CalmW4W4W4NW7NW7--NW7
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Tide / Current Tables for Block Island (Great Salt Pond), Rhode Island
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Block Island (Great Salt Pond)
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Wed -- 01:36 AM EDT     -0.67 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:50 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 06:54 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 07:59 AM EDT     3.33 feet High Tide
Wed -- 02:01 PM EDT     -0.63 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:38 PM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 06:58 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 08:22 PM EDT     3.41 feet High Tide
Wed -- 09:43 PM EDT     Full Moon
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.2-0.6-0.6-0.30.31.22.233.332.21.10.2-0.4-0.6-0.40.10.91.92.83.43.32.61.6

Tide / Current Tables for Moonstone Beach, Rhode Island
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Moonstone Beach
Click for Map
Wed -- 02:00 AM EDT     -0.91 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:49 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 06:54 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 08:08 AM EDT     3.64 feet High Tide
Wed -- 02:25 PM EDT     -0.86 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:37 PM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 06:58 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 08:31 PM EDT     3.73 feet High Tide
Wed -- 09:43 PM EDT     Full Moon
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.1-0.7-0.9-0.7-012.23.23.63.42.61.50.4-0.4-0.8-0.8-0.30.71.82.93.63.631.9

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Boston, MA (19,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Boston, MA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.