Monday, November12, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Quonochontaug, RI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:31AMSunset 4:31PM Monday November 12, 2018 7:21 PM EST (00:21 UTC) Moonrise 11:58AMMoonset 9:38PM Illumination 24% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
ANZ237 Block Island Sound- 716 Pm Est Mon Nov 12 2018
.gale warning in effect from 7 am est Tuesday through late Tuesday night...
Tonight..S winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, becoming se 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 30 kt after midnight. Seas around 3 ft, building to 6 ft after midnight. A chance of rain this evening, then rain after midnight.
Tue..SE winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming W in the afternoon. Gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 11 ft. Areas of fog. Rain with a chance of tstms in the morning. Some tstms may produce gusty winds and heavy rainfall in the morning with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tue night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 8 ft.
Wed..NW winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Gusts up to 30 kt. Seas around 7 ft, subsiding to 5 ft in the afternoon.
Wed night..N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Thu..NE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming E in the afternoon. Seas around 3 ft. A chance of rain in the afternoon.
Thu night..E winds 15 to 20 kt, increasing to 20 to 25 kt after midnight. Gusts up to 30 kt, increasing to 35 kt after midnight. Seas around 5 ft, building to 8 ft after midnight. Rain likely.
Fri..NE winds 20 to 25 kt, becoming nw in the afternoon. Gusts up to 35 kt. Seas around 9 ft. Rain likely, mainly in the morning.
Fri night..W winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas around 8 ft, subsiding to 6 ft after midnight.
Sat..W winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft.
Sat night..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 4 ft. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms. Seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.
ANZ200 716 Pm Est Mon Nov 12 2018
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters.. Low pressure will sweep over se new england on Tuesday with gale force winds as well as moderate to heavy rain. A brief reprieve Wednesday into Thursday before another storm system follows late Thursday night into Friday. High pressure returns for the weekend. For information on possible hazardous weather beyond the 24-36 hour forecast period, please visit www.weather.gov/boston and follow the current hazards link above the map on the left.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Quonochontaug, RI
   Hourly   EDIT   Help
location: 41.19, -71.58     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
      (on/off)   Help   NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
Fxus61 kbox 122342
afdbox
area forecast discussion
national weather service boston norton ma
642 pm est Mon nov 12 2018

Synopsis
Potent low pressure tracks up the eastern seaboard later tonight and
across southeast ma Tue afternoon resulting in a windswept soaking
rain, with potentially damaging winds over CAPE cod and the islands.

Blustery and colder conditions return Tuesday night into Wednesday
with diminishing Thursday but remaining cold. Another storm will
impact the region late Thursday into Friday, which may be
accompanied by some wintry weather at the start. Colder and drier
weather follows next weekend.

Near term until 6 am Tuesday morning
640 pm update...

high clouds overspreading sne this evening which will slow
temperature fall. No changes to precip onset with latest hi-res
guidance continuing to show precip overspreading sne from SW to
ne between midnight and 3 am. Current forecast on track.

Previous discussion...

model consensus including the 12z href have rain overspreading
the region from 12 am to 3 pm from west to east. Inland temps
will fall into the 30s from evaporative cooling. Model soundings
do support a few hours of wet snow possible across northwest ma
including franklin county where a coating to 2 inches is
possible. However this will be short lived and will wash away by
the morning commute as snow changes to rain.

Elsewhere, temperatures will rise toward morning in response to
increasing southeast winds off the ocean as low pressure tracks into
southern nj.

Short term 6 am Tuesday morning through Tuesday night
4 pm update...

* highlights...

- intensifying coastal low tracks near the i-95 corridor
- strong to damaging winds possible CAPE cod & islands tue
- 3-6 hour window of heavy rain approximately 8 am to noon
- minor flooding of small rivers & streams possible including
the sudbury river at saxonville and pawtuxet river at
cranston along with minor street & highway flooding
strong damaging winds...

very strong low level southerly jet moves across CAPE cod and the
islands between 15z-18z accompanying intensifying low tracking thru
i-95 corridor of ct-ri into into CAPE cod bay. Highest risk of
damaging winds will be in the warm sector. Some uncertainty on the
exact track of the surface low which will dictate areal extent of
warm sector. Highest confidence for damaging winds is across
nantucket with the threat diminishing northward. Thus will convert
high wind watch to a high wind warning for nantucket and go with a
high wind watch for CAPE cod and marthas vineyard. Model soundings
in the low levels become neutral here with 60 kt of wind below a 1
kft at nantucket. So even if higher winds aloft don't transfer to the
surface, sustained winds may reach warning criteria of 35 kt 40 mph.

Some increased forecast certainty regarding strong winds comes from
12z models trending upward with intensity of low level jet along
with a very impressive rise fall pres couplet with 17mb pres fall
from 12z-18z centered over CAPE cod and the islands. This will
enhance the isallobaric wind component and increase the threat for
damaging winds. Elsewhere winds will be considerable less given the
cooler stable surface temperatures on the NW side of the low track.

Heavy rain flood risk...

rain will be across the entire region at daybreak with rain
intensity increasing 7 am to 10 am from west to east across the area
as 90 kt low level southerly jet acts on pwats surging upward to 1.5
inches. Thus heavy rain will impact the morning commute but the
heaviest rain may wait until the tail end of the morning rush, say 9
am to noon-ish. Good model agreement now on QPF with a widespread
0.75-1.5 inches with heaviest totals across ct-ri and southeast ma,
with low prob of isolated 2 inch amounts along the south coast. The
progressive nature of this system will limit the flood threat, thus
decided to hold off on a flood watch.

As for rivers and streams, the sudbury river at saxonville and the
pawtuxet river at cranston may experience minor flooding. However
both of these sites may remain below flood stage. Thus given the low
probability here of flooding will hold off on any river flood
watches.

The low quickly exits the eastern ma coast after 18z so expecting a
drying trend during the afternoon along with gusty west winds and
cooler temps.

Tuesday night...

blustery and turning much colder with 850 temps crashing from +2c at
00z to -13c by 12z wed! Gusty NW winds up to 40-45 mph will make it
feel even colder with air temps falling into the 20s but wind chills
in the teens!

Long term Wednesday through Monday
Highlights...

* windy and cold wed, then coldest air of the season Wed night
* another storm late Thu into Fri with rain snow ice possible
* mainly dry and colder next weekend into early next week
Wednesday into Wednesday night...

windy and cold day Wed with strong W NW flow. Soundings show a deep
and well mixed boundary layer which supports gusts to 40-50 mph,
especially across central and NE ma, with 30-40 mph gusts elsewhere.

Wind advisories will likely be needed for a portion of sne.

Strongest wind gusts through early afternoon then slowly
diminishing. Expect lots of sunshine wed, although lake effect
moisture may result in clouds spilling into northern ct and SW ma.

850 mb temps down to -12 to -14c Wed so highs will only reach
mid upper 30s with lower 30s higher terrain. Wind chills in the 20s
with upper teens higher terrain.

Coldest night of the season by far Wed night as strong high pres
builds into new eng with clear skies and diminishing winds and very
dry airmass in place. Excellent radiational cooling will result in
lows dropping into the teens for much of the region, a little milder
in boston and outer CAPE islands. Some single numbers possible in
the ct valley in northern ma.

Thursday into Friday...

dry weather and sunshine to start the day with high pres in control.

But clouds will overspread region during the day as the high moves
offshore. Model guidance indicating a rather potent southern stream
closed low lifting NE into new eng fri. While system is de-
amplifying and opening up, it still moves through as a robust
negative tilt trough, ensuring a period of heavy precip and strong
winds. Timing brings onset of precip north across the region thu
afternoon evening with precip persisting through Thu night and into
Friday as the potent negative tilt trough moves across the region.

Strong high pres north of the region will provide enough cold air at
the start for some snow mixed precip, especially interior. How long
snow ice mixed precip hangs on in the interior and specific
accumulations will depend on the low track and details of thermal
profile. However, some snow and or ice accum is likely in the
interior. Looking at mostly rain by Friday.

Saturday into Monday...

turning colder, especially Sun into Mon as departing shortwave
brings reinforcing shot of colder air. Expect temps well below
normal Sun mon. Saturday will be transition day with temps close to
seasonable. Mainly dry during this period, although some rain snow
showers possible with shortwave passage Sat night.

Aviation 00z Tuesday through Saturday
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Tuesday night ...

00z update...

thru this evening...VFR, dry weather and modest ssw winds. High
confidence.

Overnight... Rain overspreads the area from west to east 05z to
08z.VFR conditions quickly becoming MVFR with areas of ifr in
the worcester hills. High confidence.

Tuesday... MVFR to start but then lowering to ifr in periods of
heavy rain beginning around 13z thru 17z from west to east. Then
rapidly improving after 17z from west to east with rain exiting
and improving to MVFR thenVFR. Llws 12z-17z southeast ma
including CAPE cod and the islands with 90 kt low level
southerly jet. Sharp wind shift 16z-19z to the NW 20-30g40 kt.

High confidence on overall theme but lower confidence on
specific timing.

Tuesday night... Strong NW winds 25-35g45 kt.VFR and dry
weather.

Kbos terminal...

strong surface wind and llws south of boston over CAPE cod and
islands. Heaviest rain 14z-17z then sharp wind shift to the nw.

Kbdl terminal...

potential llws with sse low level jet 09z-12z tue. Heaviest rain
12z-15z.

Outlook Wednesday through Saturday ...

Wednesday:VFR. Strong winds with gusts to 40 kt.

Wednesday night:VFR. Windy with local gusts to 30 kt.

Thursday: mainlyVFR, with local ifr possible late with chance
pl, chance sn, chance ra.

Thursday night: mainly MVFR, with areas ifr possible. Windy
with gusts to 35 kt. Pl likely, ra likely, fzra likely, sn
likely.

Friday: mainly MVFR, with local ifr possible. Strong winds with
local gusts to 40 kt. Ra likely, fzra likely.

Friday night: mainlyVFR, with local ifr possible. Windy with
areas gusts to 30 kt. Slight chance ra, slight chance shsn.

Saturday:VFR. Breezy.

Marine
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Tuesday night ... High confidence.

Tonight...

light winds to start but SE gales toward morning along with rain and
fog lowering vsby.

Tuesday...

se gales with strongest winds near 50 kt possible across the waters
of CAPE cod and the islands between 10 am and 1 pm, as intensifying
low pres tracks near the i-95 corridor of ct-ri into CAPE cod bay.

Rain and fog reduce vsby but improving in the afternoon with a wind
shift to the west.

Tuesday night...

west gales likely along with improving vsby.

Outlook Wednesday through Saturday ...

Wednesday: moderate risk for gale force winds with gusts up to
45 kt. Rough seas up to 14 ft.

Wednesday night: low risk for small craft advisory winds with
gusts up to 30 kt. Local rough seas.

Thursday: winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.

Chance of rain. Local visibility 1 to 3 nm.

Thursday night: low risk for gale force winds with gusts up to
40 kt. Areas of rough seas. Rain likely.

Friday: moderate risk for gale force winds with gusts up to
40 kt. Rough seas up to 13 ft. Rain likely.

Friday night: moderate risk for small craft advisory winds with
gusts up to 30 kt. Rough seas up to 12 ft.

Saturday: moderate risk for small craft advisory winds with
gusts up to 25 kt. Areas of rough seas.

Box watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ma... High wind watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday afternoon
for maz022-023.

High wind warning from 10 am to 2 pm est Tuesday for maz024.

Ri... None.

Marine... Gale warning from 7 am Tuesday to 6 am est Wednesday for
anz231>235-237-250-251-254>256.

Gale warning from 1 am to 6 am est Wednesday for anz230.

Small craft advisory from 4 am Tuesday to 6 am est Wednesday
for anz236.

Synopsis... Kjc nocera
near term... Kjc nocera
short term... Nocera
long term... Kjc
aviation... Kjc nocera
marine... Kjc nocera


Weather Reporting Stations
   EDIT       (on/off)   Help   NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map
Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MTKN6 - 8510560 - Montauk, NY 22 mi33 min 49°F 54°F1028.7 hPa
NWPR1 - 8452660 - Newport, RI 26 mi33 min S 8 G 8 49°F 49°F1029.2 hPa
LDLC3 - New London Ledge CT - Ledge Light Weather 28 mi36 min SW 6 G 8 49°F 1029.7 hPa36°F
44097 - Block Island, RI (154) 28 mi38 min 56°F2 ft
QPTR1 - 8454049 - Quonset Point, RI 29 mi39 min S 5.1 G 6 48°F 52°F1029.4 hPa
NLNC3 - 8461490 - New London, CT 29 mi33 min N 4.1 G 5.1 44°F 51°F1028.8 hPa
BUZM3 - Buzzards Bay, MA 32 mi81 min SSW 8.9 G 9.9 48°F 1030.2 hPa (+0.4)
NAXR1 - Narragansett Bay Reserve, RI 33 mi156 min SW 5.1 47°F 1029 hPa35°F
PTCR1 - 8452951 - Potter Cove, Prudence Island, RI 33 mi39 min Calm G 1.9 45°F 1029.4 hPa
CPTR1 - 8452944 - Conimicut Light, RI 38 mi33 min SSE 6 G 7 47°F 51°F1029.3 hPa
FRXM3 41 mi33 min 45°F 35°F
PVDR1 42 mi33 min Calm G 1 45°F 1029.2 hPa36°F
44017 - 23 Nautical Miles Southwest of Montauk Point, NY 42 mi31 min SSE 12 G 14 51°F 57°F2 ft1029.1 hPa (+0.0)42°F
FRVM3 - 8447386 - Fall River, MA 42 mi33 min 45°F 52°F1029.6 hPa
BLTM3 - 8447387 - Borden Flats Light at Fall River, MA 42 mi33 min SSE 5.1 G 5.1 46°F 1029.4 hPa
FOXR1 - 8454000 - Providence, RI 44 mi39 min Calm G 1 45°F 49°F1028.8 hPa

Wind History for Newport, RI
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
Last
24hr
NW7
G10
NW7
G11
NW11
G16
NW8
G16
NW8
NW3
G7
N4
N4
NW5
G8
NE1
E1
--
NE2
--
--
S7
S7
G11
SW9
S11
G15
S11
SW11
G14
S7
G10
S6
S7
1 day
ago
W14
G17
W13
G18
W11
G14
W11
G15
W11
G18
W16
W17
G23
W14
G20
W16
W13
G16
W11
G14
W9
G12
W8
G12
W7
G13
W13
G20
NW11
G17
W8
G15
NW10
G15
NW12
G18
W12
G16
NW10
G14
W10
G13
NW6
G10
NW6
2 days
ago
NE12
G17
NE10
G19
E12
G17
NE11
G17
NE15
G23
N11
G16
N13
G17
N10
N9
G13
N6
G9
NW5
G8
W8
W9
G13
W16
G20
W14
G19
W15
G21
W18
G23
W20
G29
NW17
G22
W20
G29
W23
G29
W16
G24
W16
G21
W14
G21

Airport Reports
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help   Click EDIT to display multiple airports
AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Block Island State Airport, RI1 mi25 minS 710.00 miMostly Cloudy0°F0°F%1029.5 hPa
Westerly, Westerly State Airport, RI16 mi28 minN 010.00 miMostly Cloudy48°F39°F74%1029.3 hPa
Montauk, Montauk Airport, NY20 mi27 minVar 5 mi49°F41°F74%1029.4 hPa

Wind History from BID (wind in knots)
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
Last 24hrNW9NW12
G18
--N11
G17
N6N7N5NW3CalmN3CalmCalmCalmCalmSW4SW6SW5SW8S9S8S9S10S9S7
1 day agoW12
G27
NW15
G24
W16
G26
NW13
G24
NW13
G25
NW15
G26
W17
G26
NW10
G18
NW13
G22
NW11
G19
NW12
G21
NW12
G16
NW10
G16
NW11
G17
NW13
G18
W9
G16
NW10
G18
W9
G14
NW7
G17
W10NW6
G14
NW8NW7
G14
NW8
2 days agoE16
G27
--E21
G30
E17
G26
NE16
G24
NE13
G25
N9--NW5NW4W9W14
G20
W13
G20
W14
G24
W16
G24
--W19
G28
W21
G34
W19
G27
NW12
G21
NW14
G21
NW15
G23
W17
G25
W18
G27

Tide / Current Tables for Block Island (Great Salt Pond), Rhode Island
   EDIT   RT Ports Option   Weekend mode (on/off)   (on/off)   Help   One Week of Data
Block Island (Great Salt Pond)
Click for Map
Mon -- 03:38 AM EST     0.21 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:30 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 10:44 AM EST     2.69 feet High Tide
Mon -- 10:57 AM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 04:22 PM EST     0.34 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 04:29 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 08:38 PM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 11:11 PM EST     2.20 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

12
am
1
am
2
am
3
am
4
am
5
am
6
am
7
am
8
am
9
am
10
am
11
am
12
pm
1
pm
2
pm
3
pm
4
pm
5
pm
6
pm
7
pm
8
pm
9
pm
10
pm
11
pm
1.91.20.60.30.20.40.81.21.72.22.62.72.41.81.10.60.40.40.60.81.21.622.2

Tide / Current Tables for Point Judith Harbor of Refuge, Rhode Island
   EDIT      (on/off)   Help   One Week of Data
Point Judith Harbor of Refuge
Click for Map
Mon -- 03:46 AM EST     0.24 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:30 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 10:34 AM EST     3.12 feet High Tide
Mon -- 10:57 AM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 04:29 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 04:40 PM EST     0.38 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 08:37 PM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 10:59 PM EST     2.54 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

12
am
1
am
2
am
3
am
4
am
5
am
6
am
7
am
8
am
9
am
10
am
11
am
12
pm
1
pm
2
pm
3
pm
4
pm
5
pm
6
pm
7
pm
8
pm
9
pm
10
pm
11
pm
21.30.70.30.20.40.81.31.92.633.12.71.91.20.70.40.40.50.81.31.92.32.5

Weather Map and Satellite Images
       (on/off)   HelpWeather Map
wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Boston, MA (19,4,5,8)
      (on/off)   Help

Ground Weather Radar Station Boston, MA
   (on/off)   Help
weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Ad by Google

Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.