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LEZ146 Expires:202405070815;;755449 Fzus51 Kcle 070139 Nshcle
nearshore marine forecast national weather service cleveland oh 939 pm edt Mon may 6 2024
for waters within five nautical miles of shore
waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum.
lez145>147-070815- vermilion to avon point oh-avon point to willowick oh- willowick to geneva-on-the lake oh- 939 pm edt Mon may 6 2024
Rest of tonight - Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Mostly cloudy late this evening, then clearing. Waves 2 feet or less. Tuesday - East winds 5 to 15 knots. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Waves 2 feet or less. Tuesday night - Southeast winds 5 to 15 knots becoming southwest. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms in the evening, then a chance of showers and Thunderstorms overnight. Waves 2 feet or less. Wednesday - Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming west. Mostly Sunny. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
see lake erie open lakes forecast for Thursday through Saturday.
the water temperature off toledo is 63 degrees, off cleveland 48 degrees, and off erie 54 degrees.

LEZ100
No data

FXUS61 KCLE 071016 AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 616 AM EDT Tue May 7 2024

SYNOPSIS
A frontal system moves through the region today and tonight.
Brief high pressure Wednesday followed by another low pressure system Wednesday night into Thursday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
6:15 AM EDT Update...
Forecast remains valid per latest trends in obs and model guidance. No changes appeared necessary.

Previous Discussion...
Stationary boundary that is stalled over the Ohio Valley will begin its push back northward in response to an upper level closed low slowly ejecting from the intermountain west into the northern plains region. This upper low and the associated surface system will be occluding, but that will not completely stifle the eastward progress of the frontal system. This synoptic scale regime sets the stage for a potential severe weather threat for much of the forecast area today into early tonight. A couple of things will need to happen first, however.
First there needs to be a push of low level moisture into the region as the column RH is on the lower side as we start out.
This moisture flux will occur once the low level flow becomes southerly and increases, after 16Z today. Will also see a pronounced increase in the low level flow into western Ohio after 18Z spreading eastward, just a few hours later. One thing to watch for with the warm front is the northward extent that it can track, possibly held up by an onshore ENE wind from the position of a weak high pressure system over eastern Lake Ontario and upstate New York. This could be a tricky boundary.
For one, it is a place for surface convergence, but the immediate near surface air over the lake is more stable. That said, elevated convection could still fire with some backing of the surface wind, and in the near saturated inversion over the lake, it could lower the LCLs in that area. Otherwise, expect destabilization across the area to occur aided by heating today, setting up vertical profiles in the afternoon for the western half of the CWA that are characteristic of high CAPE above the boundary layer, some drying above 600mb or so, a 75mb thick inverted V boundary layer, increasing low/mid level flows, and around 50-80 degrees of veering of the winds with height through the mid levels. In the end, a pretty good severe risk today into early tonight given all of these factors coming into play.
Current expansive line of convection that is moving into the Mississippi Valley extending from Minnesota back southward through Missouri and then southwestward into Oklahoma will push into the CWA around 18Z or so. This should be just prior to the aforementioned low level moisture influx and shear increases, and expect this to decay as it moves eastward without much low/mid level support yet. The better threat comes from the next complex forming in its wake. Will need to watch to see if the atmosphere can recover, which it should do so from a dynamic standpoint, but always need to be wary of lingering convective debris. Cold front moves through west to east 03-09Z Wednesday with high pressure influences from the south moving in for tomorrow, and a dry forecast largely after 10Z. Temperatures mainly in the 70s both today and Wednesday, with perhaps a few low 80s over the southern zones Wednesday.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
Surface troughing is expected to reside over/near our CWA Wednesday night as a trough aloft approaches from the north-central U.S. and Upper Great Lakes. The attendant surface low should advance E'ward from near central IL to near the border of central IN/OH. Most of our area should reside in the cold sector, but the west-to-east- oriented front preceding the surface low should remain nearly- stationary across central OH, south of the U.S. Route 30 corridor.
Convergence/associated moist ascent along the surface front should release weak boundary layer instability and moist isentropic ascent along the upper-reaches of the front should release weak elevated instability, leading to periods of scattered rain showers. Isolated general thunderstorms are possible, but despite the expectation of moderate deep layer bulk shear, the concern for severe thunderstorms is continuing to decrease given a relative dearth of MUCAPE forecast in/near our CWA Overnight lows should reach the 50's to lower 60's around daybreak Thursday. The warmest lows are expected south of the surface front.

The aforementioned trough aloft and embedded shortwave disturbances are expected to shift slowly from the western Great Lakes and vicinity to the eastern Great Lakes and Upper OH Valley on Thursday through Friday. Simultaneously, the attendant surface low is expected to continue to move generally E'ward and then ENE'ward along the preceding surface front (i.e the low should advance from near the border of central IN/OH around daybreak Thursday morning to near the Gulf of Maine by nightfall Friday evening. In the wake of the low, a much colder air mass is expected to overspread our CWA from the north and west, and a surface trough will linger over/near the eastern Great Lakes and stem from expansion of relatively-warm lake-modified air as the unusually-cold air mass for May 9th-10th advances across the lakes. Additional periods of scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms remain possible on Thursday through Friday due in part to the following: Moist isentropic ascent releasing weak elevated instability ahead of shortwave trough axes, self-destructive sunshine during the afternoon through early evening hours of both days, and the potential for lake-enhanced precip over and generally south or southeast of Lake Erie Thursday night into Friday morning amidst weak lake-induced instability over ~55F Lake Erie, a sufficiently-cold/moist low/mid-level atmospheric column, and the seeder-feeder process. A net low-level CAA regime should contribute to daytime highs reaching mainly the upper 50's to upper 60's on Thursday and the mid 50's to lower 60's on Friday after morning lows in the mid 40's to lower 50's.

Odds favor fair weather Friday night as the aforementioned trough at the surface and aloft exits E'ward, a narrow ridge at the surface and aloft builds E'ward, and stabilizing subsidence accompanies the ridge. Overnight lows should reach 40F to 50F around daybreak Saturday as the unusually-cold air mass remains entrenched across our CWA

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
Behind the above-mentioned ridge, cyclonic W'erly to NW'erly flow aloft and embedded shortwave disturbances are expected to become established over the eastern Great Lakes and Upper OH Valley this weekend through Monday, which will allow net surface troughing to impact our CWA and vicinity. Periodic showers/thunderstorms, isolated to scattered in coverage, are expected, especially during the afternoon and early evening hours given the typical diurnal cycle in boundary layer temperatures and instability is forecast.
Afternoon highs should reach the 60's this weekend. Monday's afternoon highs should reach the mid 60's to lower 70's, when a warmer low-level air mass should overspread our CWA from the southwest, ahead of a stronger shortwave disturbance. Overnight lows should reach the 40's to lower 50's around daybreak Sunday and Monday mornings.

AVIATION /12Z Tuesday THROUGH Saturday/
Already lifting the MVFR ceilings back to VFR thresholds above 3kft and expect this to continue through the early morning hours. Winds become southerly this afternoon 10-15kts with gusts 15-20kts in the wake of a warm front moving northward through the area and ahead of a cold front slated to come through 03-09Z Wednesday. Showers and thunderstorms expected this afternoon into early tonight. TEMPOs used to to time line of convection expected to form and move through the area. Gusty winds should be expected in any storms, and hail and isolated tornadoes cannot be ruled out.

Outlook...Non-VFR likely with periodic showers and thunderstorms through Saturday.

MARINE
Winds around 5 to 15 knots and waves of 3 feet or less are expected through Wednesday night. Winds trend NE'erly to E'erly today as a ridge exits slowly NE'ward and a warm front approaches Lake Erie from the southwest. NE'erly to SE'erly winds veer to SW'erly tonight as the warm front sweeps NE'ward across Lake Erie. Winds attempt to veer from SW'erly to W'erly on Wednesday as a cold front sweeps E'ward across the lake. Variable winds Wednesday evening become NE'erly to E'erly overnight as a ridge builds from northern ON and vicinity.

NE'erly to E'erly winds around 10 to 20 knots back gradually to NW'erly on Thursday through Friday as a frontal low moves generally ENE'ward from near the border of central IN/OH to near the Gulf of Maine and extends a trough over the eastern Great Lakes. Waves of 1 to 3 feet with occasional 4 footers are expected and a Small Craft Advisory may be needed, especially Thursday night into Friday. A narrow ridge should build E'ward across Lake Erie Friday night and cause NW'erly winds to ease to 5 to 15 knots and back to SW'erly.
Waves are forecast to subside to 3 feet or less. SW'erly winds around 5 to 15 knots and waves of 3 feet or less should persist on Saturday as a trough begins to overspread Lake Erie from the western Great Lakes.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...None.
PA...None.
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

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