Thursday, December13, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Stratford, CT

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:08AMSunset 4:25PM Thursday December 13, 2018 5:47 PM EST (22:47 UTC) Moonrise 12:32PMMoonset 11:19PM Illumination 38% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 6 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ335 Long Island Sound West Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 317 Pm Est Thu Dec 13 2018
Tonight..E winds around 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft this evening, then 1 ft or less. Slight chance of light rain this evening.
Fri..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Fri night..S winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of rain in the evening, then rain likely after midnight.
Sat..E winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming ne in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less. Rain likely, mainly in the morning.
Sat night..NE winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of rain.
Sun..NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas around 2 ft in the morning, then 1 ft or less. Chance of rain.
Sun night..NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of rain.
Mon..NW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming W 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of rain in the morning.
Mon night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Tue..NW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Tue night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 2 ft in the evening, then 1 ft or less.
ANZ300 317 Pm Est Thu Dec 13 2018
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. High pressure continues to shift farther offshore through Friday. A couple of low pressures systems moving through the mid atlantic will impact the area Friday night through Sunday night. A cold front moves through the region Monday. High pressure returns through the middle of the week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Stratford, CT
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location: 41.2, -73.11     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 132033
afdokx
area forecast discussion
national weather service new york ny
333 pm est Thu dec 13 2018

Synopsis
High pressure continues to shift farther offshore through
Friday. A couple of low pressures systems moving through the
mid atlantic will impact the area Friday night through Sunday
night. A cold front moves through the region Monday. High
pressure returns through the middle of the week.

Near term through tonight
A weak lingering 700 mb vorticity maximum and low level warm
advection are contributing to a few ongoing showers across the
area. As this system departs, a strengthening subsidence
inversion will suppress most activity and decrease the depth of
the moisture layer. The exception to this may be across interior
portions of the area - primarily northeastern nj, the lower
hudson valley and parts of connecticut, where the continuation
of weak upslope flow may lead to occasional light precipitation
through the night. Temperatures across these areas have remained
colder than guidance, in part due to persistent north to
northeasterly flow. Expect surface temperatures to remain below
freezing through the night. As warm advection slowly strengthens
above the surface through the night, profiles may become more
favorable for occasional light freezing drizzle. A special
weather statement (sps) has been issued to highlight this
potential.

Short term Friday through Friday night
Warm advection increases into Friday as high pressure moves
farther offshore and flow begins to strengthen ahead of a
developing low pressure systems to the west. Any ongoing
precipitation will quickly transition to rain, and with
lingering moisture beneath the inversion, mostly cloudy
conditions should continue, particularly in response to daytime
heating.

The onset of steadier precipitation has been delayed somewhat
from previous forecasts, with most expected to arrive late
Friday night as upper divergence with the approaching low allow
a coastal low to deepen to the south of the area.

Temperatures will be well above normal in the mid 40s to lower
50s in the day, and upper 30s to upper 40s at night.

Long term Saturday through Thursday
A progressive and amplified long wave pattern will be across the
country at the beginning of the long term period, Saturday, as a
southern stream shortwave becomes separated, and closes off, from
the northern stream flow. The closed and nearly cutoff southern low
moves slowly eastward into Saturday night, with a series of vort
maxes rotating into the mid atlantic region.

Meanwhile the northern stream develops into a rather amplified ridge
moving into the northeast with an associated surface high.

This high has been suppressing the southern stream a bit farther to
the south with the current model guidance. While through the weekend
there is general agreement with the timing and placement of the
northern and southern stream systems, there remains some
uncertainty as to the timing of the southern stream shortwave
separation and then the movement of this low. With consideration of
the current trend of suppressing the southern stream low, and
uncertainty in timing, have opted to lower probabilities, especially
across the northern zones, Saturday through Sunday. A few bands of
heavier rain will be possible, however, there is uncertainty where
there will set up.

Sunday into Monday the southern stream low will be opening up and
may phase with the next northern stream shortwave moving into central
canada, the into the northeast Monday night.

Warm advection in advance of the southern stream low will allow
thermal profiles to warm through much of the atmosphere and all
liquid precipitation is expected with the series of lows Friday
night into Sunday. Colder air will begin to be pulled into the
region later Sunday night as the low departs, however, at this time
the colder air will be confined to the extreme northern zones.

With the passage of the northern stream shortwave Monday into Monday
night a canadian cold front passes through the area and returns the
region to below normal temperatures.

The longwave pattern remains progressive through next week with yet
another northern stream shortwave possible for Thursday.

Aviation 21z Thursday through Tuesday
A combination of ifr MVFR coastal tafs and MVFRVFR across the
interior region this evening. Spotty very light precip is possible
with rain or drizzle near the coast and a mix further north. No
accumulation is expected.

Ifr is generally expected tonight. Patchy freezing rain or drizzle
is possible NW of nyc at kswf but not enough confidence to include
in the TAF at this time.

Ne-e winds 10-15 kt at the coast and 5 to 10 kt across the interior
will lighten tonight and become southeast. Light southeast wind near
10 kt is expected on Friday.

Ny metro enhanced aviation weather support...

detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: http:

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 4 mi53 min NE 5.1 G 8 32°F 44°F1032 hPa
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 12 mi47 min NE 8 G 11 31°F 45°F1032.9 hPa (+1.3)
44039 - Central Long Island Sound 24 mi92 min E 16 G 19 40°F 45°F2 ft
44040 - Western Long Island Sound 30 mi62 min ENE 18 G 21 38°F 2 ft36°F
44069 35 mi62 min Calm G 0 53°F 51°F31°F
44022 - Execution Rocks 39 mi47 min NE 16 G 19 42°F
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 44 mi47 min NE 5.1 G 6 38°F 42°F1032.2 hPa (+1.3)

Wind History for Bridgeport, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Bridgeport, Sikorsky Memorial Airport, CT2 mi55 minNE 99.00 miUnknown Precip34°F30°F85%1032.3 hPa
New Haven, Tweed-New Haven Airport, CT13 mi54 minN 610.00 miOvercast34°F30°F85%1032.5 hPa
Oxford, Waterbury-Oxford Airport, CT19 mi56 minENE 79.00 miLight Snow27°F24°F89%1034 hPa
Danbury, Danbury Municipal Airport, CT23 mi54 minENE 54.00 miLight Snow Fog/Mist29°F26°F89%1032.7 hPa

Wind History from BDR (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmN3NE7NE6NE7NE8NE12NE11NE10NE8NE11NE10NE9NE11NE10NE10NE11NE10NE9NE9NE9
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmNW5NW10NW5NW10NW6NW7NW6NW7NW7NW5N4NW6NW9
G14
CalmNW6N9W9NW9NW8N3
2 days agoN10N7N5N3N4N4N5N3N4N6N6N6N6N7N5N5E6E5N4Calm3SE4SE3Calm

Tide / Current Tables for Stratford, Housatonic River, Connecticut
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Stratford
Click for Map
Thu -- 03:21 AM EST     5.25 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:09 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 10:07 AM EST     0.87 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 11:32 AM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 03:34 PM EST     5.38 feet High Tide
Thu -- 04:23 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 10:19 PM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 10:33 PM EST     0.55 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.23.54.65.25.14.53.62.71.81.20.91.22.23.44.55.35.34.83.92.91.91.10.60.6

Tide / Current Tables for Black Rock Harbor entrance, Connecticut
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Black Rock Harbor entrance
Click for Map
Thu -- 02:51 AM EST     6.54 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:09 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:03 AM EST     1.14 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 11:32 AM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 03:04 PM EST     6.70 feet High Tide
Thu -- 04:24 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 09:29 PM EST     0.71 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 10:19 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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45.36.26.564.93.62.41.51.11.52.645.36.36.76.45.33.92.61.50.80.81.6

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (17,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.