Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Stratford, CT
May 6, 2024 8:58 PM EDT (00:58 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:41 AM Sunset 7:56 PM Moonrise 4:42 AM Moonset 6:28 PM |
ANZ335 Long Island Sound West Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 749 Pm Edt Mon May 6 2024
Tonight - SW winds around 5 kt, becoming nw after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less. Slight chance of showers this evening. Patchy fog early this evening. Areas of fog late this evening and early morning, then patchy fog late. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tue - NE winds around 5 kt, becoming se in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less.
Tue night - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Wave detail: S 1 ft at 2 seconds. Chance of showers after midnight.
Wed - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Wave detail: S 1 ft at 2 seconds. Showers likely with slight chance of tstms.
Wed night - S winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming nw after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less. Wave detail: nw 1 ft at 2 seconds. Chance of showers and slight chance of tstms in the evening.
Thu - NE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming E 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less. Wave detail: E 1 ft at 2 seconds. Chance of rain in the morning, then rain in the afternoon with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Thu night - E winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Rain likely. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Fri - NE winds around 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Chance of showers.
Fri night - N winds around 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers.
Sat - NW winds around 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sat night - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
winds and seas may be higher in and near tstms.
winds and seas may be higher in and near tstms.
ANZ300 749 Pm Edt Mon May 6 2024
Synopsis for the long island and connecticut coastal waters - A weak cold front moves through the area tonight, followed by weak high pressure on Tuesday. The high gives way to an approaching warm front Tuesday night that moves across the area on Wednesday. A lingering frontal boundary south of the area Wednesday night into Thursday will eventually strengthen as low pressure approaches from the west. Low pressure moves across Thursday night into Friday. The low will be east of the region Friday night into next weekend.
Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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FXUS61 KOKX 070004 AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 804 PM EDT Mon May 6 2024
SYNOPSIS
A weak cold front moves through the area tonight, followed by weak high pressure building in on Tuesday. The high gives way to an approaching warm front Tuesday night that moves across the area on Wednesday. A lingering frontal boundary south of the area Wednesday night into Thursday will eventually strengthen as low pressure approaches from the west. Low pressure moves across Thursday night into Friday. The low will be east of the region Friday night into next weekend. High pressure thereafter will be weak with more areas of low pressure potentially impacting the area late weekend into early next week.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
Put up special weather statement for SE Suffolk to cover for patchy dense fog for much of this evening. The webcams along the South Shore from the Hamptons to Montauk were indicating patches of dense fog. Otherwise, only minor adjustments made to cloud coverage and hourly temperatures and dewpoints with the forecast for tonight. Seeing as how multiple CAMs indicate in their reflectivity fields the presence of spotty coverage of rain showers this evening into part of overnight, left the slight chance of showers as contained in the previous forecast.
Shortwave energy rounding the base of an upper low over eastern Canada will give a cold front to the NW enough of a push to pass through the area tonight. The front is forecast to pass south of Long Island during the early morning hours with light and variable winds becoming light northerly. A spotty shower is possible this evening along and ahead of the front, but the forcing is weak and the airmass is relatively stable.
There is one area of concern tonight and that is with the extent of low clouds/fog that could potentially develop ahead of the cold front. This looks more likely near the coast and patchy inland. Confidence for widespread dense fog is low at this time as model soundings show drying of the vertical moisture profile. However, coastal locations do maintain some shallow moisture.
It will be a mild night with lows 5 to 10 degrees above normal, ranging from the around 50s well north and west, to the mid and upper 50s along the coast.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Quiet and warm for Tuesday as weak high pressure builds behind a cold front continuing to work south of the area. Ridging building aloft with warmer temperatures and mostly sunny skies should allow temperatures to get into the lower and mid 70s most locations, and even around 80 across portions of the NYC metro.
Immediate coastal locations, especially along the south shore of LI will likely be cooler with a weak onshore flow. There is also some uncertainty with 85h moisture poised just south and west along our doorstep. This could impact cloud cover.
For Tuesday night, the upper ridge weakens and translates eastward, while another piece of energy kicks out of the mid Mississippi Valley. This will send a frontal wave across the Ohio Valley Tuesday night and across New England on Wednesday.
The best thermal forcing will be during the morning hours with a good chance of showers. Instability is marginal but increasing into Wednesday. So have a mention of a slight chance of thunder. The area then gets into the warm sector from west to east on Wednesday, with perhaps the exception of eastern LI and SE CT. This will be tricky for temperatures as the western half of the area could get into the lower 80s, possibly higher depending on when the clearing takes place. NBM box and whisker plots show a decent range between the 25th and 75th percentiles of about 10 degrees. For KEWR, the 75th percentile is in the lower 90s. The deterministic (which is not the mean) is below the 10th percentile in many cases. This is likely due to bias correction in the springtime here which is a big challenge in forecasting due to onshore flow, low clouds and fog.
The warm sector does get moderately unstable to the north and west of NYC Wednesday afternoon, but vertical profiles are drying and there is a strengthening mid level cap with little if any lift to get above the LFC. Should get a better handle on this in the next 24h as CAMs get into the period of interest.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
Mid levels show nearly zonal flow Wednesday night with a trough moving in Thursday into Friday. Local region gets brief mid level ridging Saturday before another trough approaches for Sunday into early next week.
Weakening wave of low pressure moves farther east of the region Wednesday night into Thursday with a trailing cold front that will weaken and linger to the south of the area. Models depict a lull in the rain, with mainly dry conditions anticipated Wednesday night into early Thursday.
This front will eventually strengthen and move northward back towards the area Thursday as low pressure approaches from the west.
The front will return north as a warm front but stay south of Long Island. Vertical forcing with low level omega increases Thursday afternoon into Thursday night.
The center of the low reaches near the forecast area Thursday evening and eventually moves east of the area Friday. There are some model differences in terms of the number of waves of low pressure and their movement.
There is forecast an increasing chance for rainfall Thursday into Thursday night. Rain expected mid afternoon Thursday afternoon through Thursday evening. Some elevated instability is shown to be a possibility so there could be a few thunderstorms. Chances for rain decrease for late Thursday night into Friday but become higher across interior locations Friday afternoon into early Friday evening.
The model exhibit more coherence in pressure Friday night into Saturday as GFS, ECMWF and Canadian in that they depict low pressure getting farther east of the region with weak high pressure moving into the local area for the weekend. Chances for rain lower Friday night.
Would expect mainly dry conditions for the first half of the weekend with brief return of high pressure. However the high pressure will be of weak magnitude and very transient, allowing for a large trough to approach Sunday into Sunday night before flattening out going into early next week.
At the surface, more low pressure areas approach Sunday through potentially Monday as well. However, model differences become more apparent in this timeframe as well. Chances for rain increase Sunday and Monday, mainly in the afternoon into early evening hours.
Temperatures overall are forecast to not deviate too significantly from seasonal normal values.
AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
A cold front approaches from the northwest and passes through from early this evening through 05Z/06Z. Weak high pressure will briefly return on Tuesday.
VFR to start, with a chance of MVFR to IFR with the development of stratus and fog ahead of the cold front. Uncertain how extensive the lowered conditions will be. Winds light and variable to light SW. And then timing of improvement back to VFR will also depend of the timing of the front, with winds shifting to the west and then north to northwest.
VFR Tuesday with N to NE winds, and afternoon sea breezes.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Low confidence fcst this evening especially regarding the development and extent of stratus and fog with MVFR to IFR.
Timing of improvement will be dependent of cold frontal passage and wind shift to the north.
Unscheduled AMD likely.
OUTLOOK FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
Tuesday night: Mainly VFR. Chance of showers late with MVFR possible. Slight chance of a thunderstorm inland.
Wednesday: MVFR cond expected, IFR possible. Cond improving to VFR late day. Chance of showers. Tstms possible mainly in the afternoon.
Thursday: MVFR/IFR. Showers likely and possibly a tstm, especially in the afternoon and at night.
Friday: MVFR/VFR with chance of showers.
Saturday: Chance of showers with MVFR cond at KSWF, otherwise VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90
MARINE
Marine dense fog advisory in effect for ocean from Moriches to Montauk out 20 NM. Some patches of this fog were seen from the webcams along the beaches in the Hamptons and out towards Montauk so there is a marine weather statement for the some of the South Shore Bays, those between Moriches and the Hamptons which is in effect for much of the evening. Expecting the fog to persist this evening into the overnight, so marine dense fog advisory is in effect until 6AM Tuesday.
Otherwise, areas of fog are likely to redevelop this evening, especially on the rest of the forecast ocean waters. There is the potential for a period of dense fog for these other forecast ocean waters. A cold front moves through during the early morning hours with improving conditions. Otherwise, winds and seas are expected to remain below SCA conditions through Wednesday.
SCA conditions possible within the Thursday through Friday night timeframe for most of the waters with highest chances across the ocean zones. Otherwise, mainly below SCA conditions forecast in the marine long term Wednesday night through Saturday night.
HYDROLOGY
There are currently no hydrologic concerns through the period.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
Astronomical tides are running high with the approach of a new moon Tuesday night.
A statement remains in effect for localized minor flooding with tonight's high tide cycle for Southern Fairfield County and the south shore back bays of Nassau County.
A more widespread minor flooding event that would necessitate advisories for these two locations plus Southern Queens will more likely occur with the nighttime cycles from Tuesday night through at least Thursday night. Statements for these 3 high tide cycles may be needed for other parts along western LI Sound, SW Suffolk County, as well as lower NY Harbor and Brooklyn.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 6 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ350.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 804 PM EDT Mon May 6 2024
SYNOPSIS
A weak cold front moves through the area tonight, followed by weak high pressure building in on Tuesday. The high gives way to an approaching warm front Tuesday night that moves across the area on Wednesday. A lingering frontal boundary south of the area Wednesday night into Thursday will eventually strengthen as low pressure approaches from the west. Low pressure moves across Thursday night into Friday. The low will be east of the region Friday night into next weekend. High pressure thereafter will be weak with more areas of low pressure potentially impacting the area late weekend into early next week.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
Put up special weather statement for SE Suffolk to cover for patchy dense fog for much of this evening. The webcams along the South Shore from the Hamptons to Montauk were indicating patches of dense fog. Otherwise, only minor adjustments made to cloud coverage and hourly temperatures and dewpoints with the forecast for tonight. Seeing as how multiple CAMs indicate in their reflectivity fields the presence of spotty coverage of rain showers this evening into part of overnight, left the slight chance of showers as contained in the previous forecast.
Shortwave energy rounding the base of an upper low over eastern Canada will give a cold front to the NW enough of a push to pass through the area tonight. The front is forecast to pass south of Long Island during the early morning hours with light and variable winds becoming light northerly. A spotty shower is possible this evening along and ahead of the front, but the forcing is weak and the airmass is relatively stable.
There is one area of concern tonight and that is with the extent of low clouds/fog that could potentially develop ahead of the cold front. This looks more likely near the coast and patchy inland. Confidence for widespread dense fog is low at this time as model soundings show drying of the vertical moisture profile. However, coastal locations do maintain some shallow moisture.
It will be a mild night with lows 5 to 10 degrees above normal, ranging from the around 50s well north and west, to the mid and upper 50s along the coast.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Quiet and warm for Tuesday as weak high pressure builds behind a cold front continuing to work south of the area. Ridging building aloft with warmer temperatures and mostly sunny skies should allow temperatures to get into the lower and mid 70s most locations, and even around 80 across portions of the NYC metro.
Immediate coastal locations, especially along the south shore of LI will likely be cooler with a weak onshore flow. There is also some uncertainty with 85h moisture poised just south and west along our doorstep. This could impact cloud cover.
For Tuesday night, the upper ridge weakens and translates eastward, while another piece of energy kicks out of the mid Mississippi Valley. This will send a frontal wave across the Ohio Valley Tuesday night and across New England on Wednesday.
The best thermal forcing will be during the morning hours with a good chance of showers. Instability is marginal but increasing into Wednesday. So have a mention of a slight chance of thunder. The area then gets into the warm sector from west to east on Wednesday, with perhaps the exception of eastern LI and SE CT. This will be tricky for temperatures as the western half of the area could get into the lower 80s, possibly higher depending on when the clearing takes place. NBM box and whisker plots show a decent range between the 25th and 75th percentiles of about 10 degrees. For KEWR, the 75th percentile is in the lower 90s. The deterministic (which is not the mean) is below the 10th percentile in many cases. This is likely due to bias correction in the springtime here which is a big challenge in forecasting due to onshore flow, low clouds and fog.
The warm sector does get moderately unstable to the north and west of NYC Wednesday afternoon, but vertical profiles are drying and there is a strengthening mid level cap with little if any lift to get above the LFC. Should get a better handle on this in the next 24h as CAMs get into the period of interest.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
Mid levels show nearly zonal flow Wednesday night with a trough moving in Thursday into Friday. Local region gets brief mid level ridging Saturday before another trough approaches for Sunday into early next week.
Weakening wave of low pressure moves farther east of the region Wednesday night into Thursday with a trailing cold front that will weaken and linger to the south of the area. Models depict a lull in the rain, with mainly dry conditions anticipated Wednesday night into early Thursday.
This front will eventually strengthen and move northward back towards the area Thursday as low pressure approaches from the west.
The front will return north as a warm front but stay south of Long Island. Vertical forcing with low level omega increases Thursday afternoon into Thursday night.
The center of the low reaches near the forecast area Thursday evening and eventually moves east of the area Friday. There are some model differences in terms of the number of waves of low pressure and their movement.
There is forecast an increasing chance for rainfall Thursday into Thursday night. Rain expected mid afternoon Thursday afternoon through Thursday evening. Some elevated instability is shown to be a possibility so there could be a few thunderstorms. Chances for rain decrease for late Thursday night into Friday but become higher across interior locations Friday afternoon into early Friday evening.
The model exhibit more coherence in pressure Friday night into Saturday as GFS, ECMWF and Canadian in that they depict low pressure getting farther east of the region with weak high pressure moving into the local area for the weekend. Chances for rain lower Friday night.
Would expect mainly dry conditions for the first half of the weekend with brief return of high pressure. However the high pressure will be of weak magnitude and very transient, allowing for a large trough to approach Sunday into Sunday night before flattening out going into early next week.
At the surface, more low pressure areas approach Sunday through potentially Monday as well. However, model differences become more apparent in this timeframe as well. Chances for rain increase Sunday and Monday, mainly in the afternoon into early evening hours.
Temperatures overall are forecast to not deviate too significantly from seasonal normal values.
AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
A cold front approaches from the northwest and passes through from early this evening through 05Z/06Z. Weak high pressure will briefly return on Tuesday.
VFR to start, with a chance of MVFR to IFR with the development of stratus and fog ahead of the cold front. Uncertain how extensive the lowered conditions will be. Winds light and variable to light SW. And then timing of improvement back to VFR will also depend of the timing of the front, with winds shifting to the west and then north to northwest.
VFR Tuesday with N to NE winds, and afternoon sea breezes.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Low confidence fcst this evening especially regarding the development and extent of stratus and fog with MVFR to IFR.
Timing of improvement will be dependent of cold frontal passage and wind shift to the north.
Unscheduled AMD likely.
OUTLOOK FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
Tuesday night: Mainly VFR. Chance of showers late with MVFR possible. Slight chance of a thunderstorm inland.
Wednesday: MVFR cond expected, IFR possible. Cond improving to VFR late day. Chance of showers. Tstms possible mainly in the afternoon.
Thursday: MVFR/IFR. Showers likely and possibly a tstm, especially in the afternoon and at night.
Friday: MVFR/VFR with chance of showers.
Saturday: Chance of showers with MVFR cond at KSWF, otherwise VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90
MARINE
Marine dense fog advisory in effect for ocean from Moriches to Montauk out 20 NM. Some patches of this fog were seen from the webcams along the beaches in the Hamptons and out towards Montauk so there is a marine weather statement for the some of the South Shore Bays, those between Moriches and the Hamptons which is in effect for much of the evening. Expecting the fog to persist this evening into the overnight, so marine dense fog advisory is in effect until 6AM Tuesday.
Otherwise, areas of fog are likely to redevelop this evening, especially on the rest of the forecast ocean waters. There is the potential for a period of dense fog for these other forecast ocean waters. A cold front moves through during the early morning hours with improving conditions. Otherwise, winds and seas are expected to remain below SCA conditions through Wednesday.
SCA conditions possible within the Thursday through Friday night timeframe for most of the waters with highest chances across the ocean zones. Otherwise, mainly below SCA conditions forecast in the marine long term Wednesday night through Saturday night.
HYDROLOGY
There are currently no hydrologic concerns through the period.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
Astronomical tides are running high with the approach of a new moon Tuesday night.
A statement remains in effect for localized minor flooding with tonight's high tide cycle for Southern Fairfield County and the south shore back bays of Nassau County.
A more widespread minor flooding event that would necessitate advisories for these two locations plus Southern Queens will more likely occur with the nighttime cycles from Tuesday night through at least Thursday night. Statements for these 3 high tide cycles may be needed for other parts along western LI Sound, SW Suffolk County, as well as lower NY Harbor and Brooklyn.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 6 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ350.
| Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
| BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT | 4 mi | 59 min | SW 5.1G | 65°F | 29.80 | |||
| NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT | 12 mi | 59 min | S 4.1G | 63°F | 58°F | 29.86 | ||
| 44022 - Execution Rocks | 39 mi | 44 min | SSW 7.8 | 63°F | 29.84 | 60°F | ||
| KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY | 44 mi | 59 min | SSE 8G | 64°F | 29.87 |
toggle option: (graph/table)
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KBDR IGOR I SIKORSKY MEMORIAL,CT | 3 sm | 66 min | SSW 05 | 10 sm | Clear | 64°F | 59°F | 83% | 29.85 | |
| KHVN TWEEDNEW HAVEN,CT | 12 sm | 65 min | S 03 | 5 sm | Clear | Mist | 64°F | 61°F | 88% | 29.85 |
| KOXC WATERBURYOXFORD,CT | 19 sm | 67 min | S 04 | 9 sm | Partly Cloudy | 66°F | 63°F | 88% | 29.88 | |
| KDXR DANBURY MUNI,CT | 23 sm | 65 min | var 04 | 10 sm | Clear | 70°F | 63°F | 78% | 29.87 |
Tide / Current for Stratford, I-95 bridge, Housatonic River, Connecticut
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Stratford, I-95 bridge, Housatonic River, Connecticut, Tide feet
Black Rock Harbor entrance
Click for Map
Mon -- 04:15 AM EDT -0.83 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 04:43 AM EDT Moonrise
Mon -- 05:43 AM EDT Sunrise
Mon -- 10:21 AM EDT 7.30 feet High Tide
Mon -- 04:29 PM EDT -0.35 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:28 PM EDT Moonset
Mon -- 07:55 PM EDT Sunset
Mon -- 10:39 PM EDT 8.31 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Mon -- 04:15 AM EDT -0.83 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 04:43 AM EDT Moonrise
Mon -- 05:43 AM EDT Sunrise
Mon -- 10:21 AM EDT 7.30 feet High Tide
Mon -- 04:29 PM EDT -0.35 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:28 PM EDT Moonset
Mon -- 07:55 PM EDT Sunset
Mon -- 10:39 PM EDT 8.31 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Black Rock Harbor entrance, Connecticut, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 5.7 |
| 1 am |
| 3.7 |
| 2 am |
| 1.7 |
| 3 am |
| 0 |
| 4 am |
| -0.8 |
| 5 am |
| -0.5 |
| 6 am |
| 0.8 |
| 7 am |
| 2.7 |
| 8 am |
| 4.7 |
| 9 am |
| 6.3 |
| 10 am |
| 7.2 |
| 11 am |
| 7.1 |
| 12 pm |
| 6 |
| 1 pm |
| 4.3 |
| 2 pm |
| 2.4 |
| 3 pm |
| 0.8 |
| 4 pm |
| -0.2 |
| 5 pm |
| -0.2 |
| 6 pm |
| 0.9 |
| 7 pm |
| 2.8 |
| 8 pm |
| 4.9 |
| 9 pm |
| 6.8 |
| 10 pm |
| 8.1 |
| 11 pm |
| 8.2 |
Upton, NY,
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