Saturday, November18, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Flat Rock, OH

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:21AMSunset 5:09PM Saturday November 18, 2017 2:19 PM EST (19:19 UTC) Moonrise 7:16AMMoonset 5:44PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LEZ144 Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Maumee Bay To Reno Beach Oh- Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Reno Beach To The Islands Oh- Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From The Islands To Vermilion Oh- 432 Am Est Sat Nov 18 2017
.gale warning in effect from 4 pm est this afternoon through Sunday morning...
Today..South winds 15 to 25 knots becoming west to 30 knots late. Showers with a chance of Thunderstorms this afternoon. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Tonight..Northwest gales to 35 knots. Rain showers likely, mainly in the evening. Waves 3 to 6 feet building to 5 to 9 feet. Waves occasionally around 11 feet.
Sunday..Northwest gales to 35 knots decreasing to 15 to 25 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 5 to 8 feet subsiding to 3 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 10 feet.
Sunday night..West winds 15 to 25 knots. Mostly cloudy in the evening, then becoming partly cloudy. Waves 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 2 to 4 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet. Winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms. SEe lake erie open lakes forecast for Monday through Wednesday. The water temperature off toledo is 43 degrees...off cleveland 50 degrees and off erie 48 degrees.
LEZ144 Expires:201711181530;;586481 FZUS51 KCLE 180932 NSHCLE Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Cleveland OH 432 AM EST Sat Nov 18 2017 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LEZ142>144-181530-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Flat Rock, OH
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location: 41.2, -82.89     debug


Area Discussion for - Cleveland, OH
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Fxus61 kcle 181740
afdcle
area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
1240 pm est Sat nov 18 2017

Synopsis
Low pressure will move northeast across the western basin of
lake erie this afternoon. A warm front will lift north across
the eastern half of ohio and northwest pennsylvania today. A
strong cold front associated with the low pressure system is
expected to move from west to east across the local area late
this afternoon into this evening. A ridge of high pressure will
build slowly east across the area following the cold front
tonight through Sunday night. High pressure will then build into
the tennessee valley Monday and off the virginia coast Tuesday.

Near term through Sunday
Trends still in line with the forecast. Low pressure near ind
with ht falls across NW oh. Line of tsra developing ahead of the
trailing cold front.

Original discussion...

a lot going on in the next 36 hours with strong deepening low
pressure expected to move northeast toward the western basin of
lake erie today. This storm system is expected to force a warm
front northeast into the eastern portions of the forecast area.

A secondary surge of warm air will arrive late this afternoon
and will push temperatures into the lower 60s from cleveland to
mansfield east. Dewpoint temperatures will also climb into the
50s as well across the same area. Areas further west will be
closer to the low and will struggle to get out of the 50s today.

There will be a few rounds of precipitation today. The first
round is currently moving east across the area at this time. The
second round is already beginning to develop along the warm
front across central indiana to central ohio. This area of
showers and possibly a few thunderstorms will move north toward
the forecast area during the early daylight hours today and lift
northeast with the front. The warm front appears it will stall
along the lake shore as the low moves northeast forcing another
line of showers and thunderstorms across the area with the cold
front.

As of right now, with potential break in the precipitation this
afternoon in the eastern half of the area, some breaks in the
overcast could occur helping somewhat to boost temperatures in
the east. Most unstable CAPE values approaching 1000 in the east
and 850 mb winds reaching 60 knots in the nose of the low level
jet. SPC has a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms nosing
into the forecast area but I think this evening the area will
need to be extended northeast up toward erie, pa. So, main
threat will be from damaging winds in any thunderstorms that tap
into the winds aloft. Quite a bit of shear is noted up near the
warm front so will have to closely monitor any storms that
develop this afternoon and evening.

As cold front pushes east, colder air will follow but models are
slowing the forward progress of the cold air and will likely
hold off until Sunday afternoon. So, will cut back on colder
temperatures tonight and Sunday and then begin to drop
temperatures off in the afternoon when the colder air finally
arrives. Snow totals will be reduced as well and most likely any
accumulations will be confined to higher elevations in the east
tonight.

Due to the gusty wind in the mid levels mixing down to the
surface behind the cold front, expect the potential for gusty
winds at the surface and will continue the wind advisory across
the area.

Short term Sunday night through Tuesday night
The best chance for lake effect snow seems to be Sunday night into
Monday morning as the next short wave drops across the eastern great
lakes and the core of the coldest air slides by. The northwest flow
will back to westerly and eventually southwesterly on Monday so the
focus of the lake effect will shift from inland locations to include
the lakeshore by Monday morning. Several inches is certainly
possible especially in the hills in erie county pa and if a
persistent band of snow were to develop then somebody could have a
decent shot of snow before the snow weakens and shifts toward
buffalo by Monday afternoon. Warm advection increases on Monday and
outside of extreme NE oh and NW pa, there will likely be just some
patchy mid and high clouds and it should begin to warm up with highs
in the 40s.

There are still some timing issue with the next front on Tuesday.

The GFS remains somewhat faster than the other models and the
forecast will stay a few hours slower than the gfs. Will keep
Tuesday dry with high temperatures up to around 50 in many areas.

Will mention a chance of rain snow showers Tuesday night, mainly
across NE oh and NW pa.

Long term Wednesday through Friday
Just cold enough for some lake effect rain snow showers flurries on
Wednesday with highs in the 30s. The lake effect could linger into
Thursday but a zonal flow aloft late in the week will take the
surface high off the mid atlantic coast and winds will back to the
southwest on Friday. The next front will likely sag south across the
great lakes sometime early next weekend.

Temperatures will remain below normal Wednesday and Thursday, then
recover toward normal by Friday.

Aviation 18z Saturday through Thursday
Low pressure centered near ind will move across NW oh and then
ne over lake erie this afternoon and evening. Warm front still
near the ohio river so winds not mixing down to surface so with
925mb winds 40-45kt could see some llws early this afternoon.

Low will track east across lake erie dragging an arctic front
across the forecast area. Will be tsra ahead of the front.

Widespread ifr will envelop the area. Behind the front NW winds
25g35kt will develop. Front should be move east of the forecast
area toward midnight local.

Outlook... Non-vfr continues through Sunday and into Monday
across northeast ohio and northwest pennsylvania. A brief period
of non-vfr possible Tuesday night all areas.

Marine
Low pressure will track across the western basin of lake erie today.

There is some question as to whether the low will track into ontario
or perhaps track northeast along the spine of lake erie. In any
case, a south to southwest flow will continue today ahead of the
low. The air mass is rather stable and the marine layer will likely
prevent efficient mixing until the low and associated cold front
sweeps across the lake from west to east this afternoon and evening.

Will have to watch water levels in the western basin but there are
currently equipment outages so we have limited information. Masters
may want to call the coast guard for water level information before
navigating the western basin to and early tonight.

The west to northwest gales behind the system will persist into
Sunday morning on the western basin and Sunday afternoon on the
eastern basin. Small craft advisories will be posted as the gale
warnings come down.

Winds will gradually back to southwest on Monday ahead of the next
cold front and a brisk southwest flow will continue until the
frontal passage late in the day Tuesday. Small craft advisories may
need to continue with the brisk southwest flow and will certainly be
needed again after the next cold front.

High pressure will build in from the west on Wednesday and winds
should begin to calm down on the lake.

Cle watches warnings advisories
Oh... Wind advisory from 7 pm this evening to 10 am est Sunday for
ohz009>014-019>023-027>033-036>038-047-089.

Flood watch until midnight est tonight for ohz017-020>023-
027>033-036>038-047.

Wind advisory from 4 pm this afternoon to 7 am est Sunday for
ohz003-006>008-017-018.

Pa... Wind advisory from 7 pm this evening to 10 am est Sunday for
paz001>003.

Marine... Gale warning from 4 pm this afternoon to 9 am est Sunday for
lez142>144-162>164.

Gale warning from 7 pm this evening to 4 pm est Sunday for
lez145>149-165>169.

Synopsis... Lombardy
near term... Djb lombardy
short term... Kosarik
long term... Kosarik
aviation... Djb
marine... Kosarik


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
HHLO1 - Huron Light, OH 23 mi79 min S 8.9 G 13 52°F 991.9 hPa (-5.7)
OWXO1 - Old Woman Creek, OH 24 mi94 min S 2.9 51°F 994 hPa51°F
SBIO1 - South Bass Island, OH 30 mi79 min SE 8.9 G 9.9 48°F 992.8 hPa (-5.5)
LORO1 42 mi49 min S 16 G 21 51°F
45005 - W ERIE 28NM Northwest of Cleveland, OH 42 mi39 min SSE 9.7 G 12 49°F 47°F993 hPa47°F
THLO1 - Toledo Light No. 2 OH 46 mi39 min ESE 11 G 11 46°F

Wind History for Marblehead, OH
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Mansfield - Mansfield Lahm Regional Airport, OH32 mi27 minSE 149.00 miOvercast50°F48°F96%992.5 hPa

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1 day agoW9
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
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GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Cleveland, OH (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Cleveland, OH
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.