Friday, March24, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Flat Rock, OH

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 7:23AMSunset 7:49PM Friday March 24, 2017 8:00 PM EDT (00:00 UTC) Moonrise 4:30AMMoonset 3:11PM Illumination 7% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 27 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LEZ144 Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Maumee Bay To Reno Beach Oh- Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Reno Beach To The Islands Oh- Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From The Islands To Vermilion Oh- 1229 Pm Edt Fri Mar 24 2017
.small craft advisory in effect until 9 pm edt this evening...
This afternoon..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots with gust to 30 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Tonight..Southwest winds 10 to 20 knots becoming south and diminishing to 5 to 10 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet.
Saturday..South winds 10 knots or less becoming east and increasing to 10 to 20 knots. A chance of showers in the morning...then showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Waves 2 feet or less.
Saturday night..East winds 10 to 20 knots diminishing to 5 to 15 knots. Showers with a chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet. Winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms. SEe lake erie open lakes forecast for Sunday through Tuesday. The water temperature off toledo is 36 degrees...off cleveland 37 degrees and off erie 35 degrees.
LEZ144 Expires:201703242015;;012185 FZUS51 KCLE 241629 NSHCLE NEARSHORE MARINE FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH 1229 PM EDT FRI MAR 24 2017 FOR WATERS WITHIN FIVE NAUTICAL MILES OF SHORE LEZ142>144-242015-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Flat Rock, OH
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location: 41.2, -82.89     debug


Area Discussion for - Cleveland, OH
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Fxus61 kcle 241925
afdcle
area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
325 pm edt Fri mar 24 2017

Synopsis
A front north of lake erie will move little overnight but will
move back south of the lake on Saturday where it will stall
again. Low pressure over oklahoma will move to northern illinois
by early Sunday and then across the central great lakes Sunday
night and Monday. A front from this low will move across the
local area late Sunday. Another area of low pressure will pass
just to the southeast of the area on Tuesday.

Near term /until 6 am Saturday morning/
The shower activity from earlier in the day has ended and much
of the area should be dry overnight. The earlier activity was
likely caused by some mid level warming and moistening.

Overnight precip chances will be confined to mainly NW pa which
will be closest to the front. The front will begin to drift back
south after 06z and it is possible that the NW tip of the area
could see some showers by 12z. Temps will again be tricky as it
has gotten warm today. Guidance numbers are in good agreement
and will be followed.

Short term /6 am Saturday morning through Monday night/
Precip chances will continue to be a challenge during the
period. It looks like much of the area could remain dry both
Saturday and Saturday night. Precip chances will be mainly
confined to the western and northern ends of the area. Have
gone ahead and lowered precip chances most areas for both
periods. No longer expecting all day rains just passing showers
from time to time. The other challenge for Saturday is the
front which will move back south of the lake by midday.

Depending on which guidance you believe the front will be
through cle between mid and late morning with temps falling
considerably behind this feature. Lows near the lakeshore will
likely occur by mid morning. Further inland it will be another
warm day so by 18z there could be a 20 degree or more
temperature gradient. Precip chances will finally advance to the
southeastern end of the area on Sunday as the surface low
crosses the western lakes. A front from this low will lift
across the area by the end of the day. Will go with high pops
and warm temps all areas. Sunday will also see the best chances
for thunder as surface dewpoints will be in the lower 50s.

Things will try to dry out from southwest to northeast on Sunday
night. Cannot rule out a few showers on Monday. It will again
be warm with highs 10 to 15 degrees above normal. Precip chances
will begin to increase again Monday night as another low
approaches from the southwest. Lot's of model differences with
that system and those can be dealt with later.

Have stayed on the warm side of guidance for highs.

Long term /Tuesday through Thursday/
Rather fast zonal flow with progressive embedded cut off lows will
persist across the eastern half of the us during the period. A weak
system will be exiting the region Tuesday with a few lingering
showers over the eastern half of the CWA mainly in the morning. Weak
seasonably cool high pressure will build by to the north and produce
a cool northerly flow off of still chilly lake erie. The next
system will approach the region Thursday with some uncertainty in
timing and phasing of the northern and southern jet streams. The
ecmwf phases both streams into another major storm west of the
region while the GFS is weaker and slower with a more southern
track. In either case moisture will move into the region late
Thursday or Thursday night and last into Friday with showers.

Aviation /18z Friday through Wednesday/
Strong mixing behind a warm front has produced wind gusts around
25kt across the terminals. This will gradually diminish after
dark and once the mixing and low level jet weaken. Moisture
advection will support some cloudy conditions overnight which
will help prevent fog development despite dew points around 50
degrees. Ceilings will move in around 5k feet, but could drop as
low as 2500 feet closer to the warm front near the lakeshore.

The primary challenge on Saturday will be the location and
timing of the front as it dips back south into the region. The
erie airport will see the wind shift to the northeast will occur
around 12z with MVFR and possible ifr conditions thereafter.

For cle the timing will be difficult as models waver between 14
and 18z. MVFR will likely transition to ifr during the day as
rain chances increase. The next TAF site to see reduced
conditions will be tol which will be at the tail end of this taf
period.

Outlook... Areas of non-vfr Saturday and Sunday. NonVFR
possible again Monday night and Tuesday.

Marine
Small craft advisories are in place for the nearshore waters through
the evening for the frequent gusts around 25 knots. There will be a
drop in winds and waves overnight as the pressure gradient relaxes
with high pressure over eastern canada. The frontal boundary over
the northern part of the lake will move south as a backdoor cold
front late tonight into early Saturday morning. This will keep rain
and cooler conditions over the lake. Northeast winds will strengthen
on Saturday afternoon as the low over missouri deepens and moves
towards the ohio valley. Small craft conditions will likely develop
especially given the favorable fetch in northeast flow. Southeast
winds will develop on Sunday as the low lifts north of the region.

Conditions will continue to improve into Monday.

Cle watches/warnings/advisories
Oh... None.

Pa... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until midnight edt tonight for lez145>149.

Small craft advisory until 9 pm edt this evening for
lez142>144.

Synopsis... Kubina
near term... Kubina
short term... Kubina
long term... Laplante
aviation... Jamison
marine... Jamison


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
OWXO1 - Old Woman Creek, OH 24 mi76 min SW 7 73°F 1015 hPa56°F
MRHO1 - 9063079 - Marblehead, OH 25 mi43 min SSW 4.1 G 8.9 69°F
SBIO1 - South Bass Island, OH 30 mi61 min SW 23 G 24 59°F 1015.1 hPa (+0.4)
THRO1 - 9063085 - Toledo, OH 46 mi43 min W 14 G 21 74°F 1014.2 hPa
THLO1 - Toledo Light No. 2 OH 46 mi61 min SW 18 G 19 60°F

Wind History for Marblehead, OH
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W8
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NE14
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NW3
G6
NE6
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Mansfield - Mansfield Lahm Regional Airport, OH32 mi69 minSW 16 G 2410.00 miFair70°F52°F53%1017.5 hPa

Wind History from MFD (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE8SE9SE9SE10S10S10SE9S9SE10S10S15S18S25
G32
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G36
SW17
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1 day agoNE6N5NE5NE5E4E4E6E5E6E8SE8SE9SE11E9E14E10E10E11E9SE12SE11S12SE8SE8
2 days agoW8W10N17
G27
N13
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G24
N14
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N12
G20
N14N16
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G22
N14
G22
N13N12
G20
N14N12N11N11N10
G15
N7
G15
NW10N10N11N7N8

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Cleveland, OH (20,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Cleveland, OH
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.