Sunrise 6:21 AM   Sunset 8:32 PM Moonrise 3:35 AM   Moonset 3:35 PM

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LEZ144 Expires:202405050230;;623548 Fzus51 Kcle 041949 Nshcle
nearshore marine forecast national weather service cleveland oh 349 pm edt Sat may 4 2024
for waters within five nautical miles of shore
waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum.
lez142>144-050230- maumee bay to reno beach oh-reno beach to the islands oh- the islands to vermilion oh- 349 pm edt Sat may 4 2024
Tonight - East winds 5 to 10 knots becoming south. Scattered showers and Thunderstorms through the early overnight, then isolated showers and Thunderstorms late. Patchy fog from late evening on. Waves 2 feet or less. Sunday - Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming northwest. Patchy fog in the morning. Scattered showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 1 foot or less. Sunday night - North winds 5 to 10 knots becoming northeast. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less. Monday - Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Partly Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
see lake erie open lakes forecast for Tuesday through Thursday.
the water temperature off toledo is 60 degrees, off cleveland 51 degrees, and off erie 53 degrees.

LEZ100
No data

FXUS61 KCLE 050004 AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 804 PM EDT Sat May 4 2024

SYNOPSIS
An unsettled weather pattern will continue through at least the middle of next week. A warm front will lift northward across the region this afternoon. Low pressure will move west to east through the Great Lakes tonight into Sunday pulling a weak cold front across the area. This frontal boundary will stall across southern Ohio Monday as weak high pressure builds over the Great Lakes Region.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
7 PM Update Minor adjustments to pops to reflect ongoing trends, otherwise no major changes to the forecast. Will likely need to look at lowering pops overnight for much of the area, with scattered/isolated being more of the flavor after 06Z across the area. Will also need to assess fog potential as well, although patchy wording still looks representative at this time.

Original discussion...
The next 24 hours now through Sunday evening will remain unsettled scattered rain showers and a few thunderstorms possible. OVerall the weather will be warm and a little wet at times with passing showers but not a total washout this weekend.

A small mid level disturbance is tracking across eastern Ohio this afternoon. It shows up fairly well on the KCLE radar with slight swirl in the reflectivity. A warm front is lifting through the area this afternoon into the evening. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue through the late evening before decreasing in coverage after midnight. Any areas that sees rainfall today may see some patchy fog late tonight into early Sunday morning.

A weak cold front will move from west to east across northern Ohio and northwest Pennsylvania Sunday afternoon. Rain chances will increase between 40 to 60 percent midday Sunday into the afternoon with the frontal passage. Thermodynamics looks limited but may be just enough for the potential of a couple strong to severe storms possible Sunday afternoon. SPC has NEOH and NWPA in a marginal threat on the Day 2 outlook. An isolated damaging wind gust would be the main hazard with any organized and stronger storm. Rain chances will gradually decrease by Sunday evening after the frontal passage and weak high pressure builds in over the Great Lakes. High temps on Sunday will be in the middle to upper 70s areawide.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
By Monday, the short wave from the Hudson Bay to the Great Lakes will rotate east and become negatively tilted. This move will provide a northwest descent flow over the Great Lakes on Monday. As a result, drying will occur across Lake Erie, lakeshore counties and at least county inland. At the same time, a slight disturbance underneath the ridge axis and moisture will provide a threat of rain and thunderstorms across the Ohio Valley and central Ohio Monday afternoon. High temperatures will be near normal around 70F Monday afternoon. Short wave over the Ohio Valley will continue to lift northeast and maintain a threat of showers Monday night.

A vigorous wave lifting east from the Four Corners on Monday will evolve into the closed low over the Dakotas Tuesday morning. The upper level low will remain stationary over the Northern Plains and yield increased thickness layers across the area. The associated surface low will drag a warm front across the area Tuesday. As a result, temps will increase for highs approaching 80 on Tuesday and lows remaining in the 60s Wednesday morning.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
A cold front will push through Wednesday morning. Limited to nil cold air advection will take hold on Wednesday. The main surface low will finally track east across Ohio on Thursday. As the low passes through the forecast area Thursday, another cold front pushes through late Thursday. With moisture remaining play and warm sector the Ohio Valley Wednesday and Thursday, the better chance of strong to severe convection is possible just west of the late Tuesday, southwest of the forecast area on Wednesday, and south half of the forecast on Thursday. There is still great deal of uncertainty with the instability and shear in the middle of next week. Elevated rain chances will exist Tuesday through Thursday. As a result, periods of rainfall could cause some impacts across northern Ohio and northwest Pennsylvania during the middle of next week. Cooler air will finally return on Friday and Saturday.

AVIATION /00Z Sunday THROUGH Thursday/
At the onset of the TAF period, SHRA and some TSRA could impact KTOL for the first few hours of the period, but otherwise, scattered SHRA across the region has a low probability of impact to the terminals through the period. Some deterioration in flight category through the night possible with some IFR stratus spreading northeast through KCAK now and KYNG and possibly KMFD through 06Z. Some MVFR BR and/or cigs possible at the other terminals through 12Z. Some scattering and lifting of ceilings after 12Z is expected with improvements in flight categories.
Some SHRA/TSRA possible along/west of KMFD to KCLE line after 18Z, but probability too low for TAF mention at this time. Winds generally remain southeast to southerly overnight, becoming more southwesterly to westerly through the day Sunday. Some southeast gusts 25-30 kts cannot be ruled out early in the period at KERI.

Outlook...Non-VFR likely with periodic showers and thunderstorms on Tuesday and Wednesday.

MARINE
Southeasterly winds are expected with the eastern legs or Pennsylvania waters approaching 15 to 20 knots late tonight.
Surface low will push east across Lake Erie Sunday will allow winds to subside on Sunday and become northerly Sunday night.
Aside from relatively brisk offshore winds across the eastern basin tonight, winds will remain below 15kts and wave heights in the nearshore and open waters to remain below 2ft except for Monday. Waves could briefly be over 2ft in northerly winds behind a cold front at that time in the central and western basin, and again towards the end of next week.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...None.
PA...None.
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

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