Thursday, November15, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Flat Rock, OH

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:18AMSunset 5:12PM Thursday November 15, 2018 4:07 PM EST (21:07 UTC) Moonrise 1:41PMMoonset 12:00AM Illumination 53% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 8 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LEZ144 Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Maumee Bay To Reno Beach Oh- Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Reno Beach To The Islands Oh- Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From The Islands To Vermilion Oh- 419 Am Est Thu Nov 15 2018
Today..Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots. Snow this morning, then snow, rain and sleet this afternoon. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet.
Tonight..Southeast winds 5 to 15 knots becoming southwest 15 to 20 knots. Snow in the evening. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Friday..Southwest winds 15 to 25 knots becoming west. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 to 4 feet building to 3 to 5 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
Friday night..West winds 15 to 25 knots becoming southwest and diminishing to 10 to 15 knots. Cloudy. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet. SEe lake erie open lakes forecast for Saturday through Monday. The water temperature off toledo is 42 degrees, off cleveland 48 degrees and off erie 45 degrees.
LEZ144 Expires:201811151530;;332270 FZUS51 KCLE 150919 NSHCLE Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Cleveland OH 419 AM EST Thu Nov 15 2018 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LEZ142>144-151530-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Flat Rock, OH
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location: 41.2, -82.89     debug


Area Discussion for - Cleveland, OH
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Fxus61 kcle 152028
afdcle
area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
328 pm est Thu nov 15 2018

Synopsis
Low over upper ohio valley will merge with coastal low tracking
up the east coast tonight. The low will track across new
england tomorrow allowing a weak surface trough to rotate across
the area.

Near term through Friday night
Have ended advisory west of mfd area. The 850 temps have
dropped below freezing and the precip has transitioned to all
snow. Do not expect any additional icy precip there this
evening. Will however, get a light accumulation of snow
overnight. Still areas of freezing rain in east of mfd area so
will continue advisory through the rush hour. All models
continue to move the warm air aloft east of the forecast area by
00z. Precip will transition to snow from the west this evening
as the colder air aloft spreads over the forecast area. Left the
forecast of 2-4 inches across the inland snowbelt as seems
reasonable. Most other places could see an inch or so.

By daybreak tomorrow the coastal low will be off the mid atlantic
coast. The low will track into and hammer new england tomorrow
afternoon. This will allow a surface trough to rotate across the
forecast area. Expect a dusting, but kept pops in the chance
category

Short term Saturday through Sunday night
A cold front will push southeast through the forecast area Saturday
morning into Sunday morning with mainly upper level zonal flow
across the region. Light snow will be possible across the
area... Especially in far northern ohio and along the snowbelt into
northwest pa. By Sunday afternoon... An upper level shortwave will
move east toward western ohio... Bringing a chance of snow to pretty
much the entire forecast area Sunday into Monday morning... With
chances shifting eastward as the day continues on Monday.

Accumulation will be light with these snow showers... With most
locations not expected to pick up more than an inch through the
weekend.

Daytime high temperatures will remain cold... Generally in the mid to
upper 30s... Around 10 to 15 degrees below normal for the middle of
november.

Long term Monday through Thursday
Another cold front is forecast to move south toward northern ohio
Monday night into Tuesday morning... Keeping the chance of snow into
at least Tuesday night if not Wednesday morning. Surface high
pressure will build over the region Tuesday night into
Wednesday... With a dry forecast by Wednesday morning. A subtle
warming trend will take place toward the end of the forecast with
building surface high pressure. By Wednesday afternoon... We are
forecast to warm to near 40 degrees.

Aviation 18z Thursday through Tuesday
Precipitation this morning is rapidly deteriorating ceilings
and visibilities. Look for a quick turn around fromVFR to ifr
as mixed precipitation moves over the terminals. Freezing rain
will linger primarily through midday at which time surface
temperatures climb above freezing. Ifr conditions will be most
prevalent in bursts of snow showers which will continue into
tonight as the trough moves east. Ifr CIGS will persist
overnight.

Outlook... Non-vfr likely tonight area wide and in the northeast
Friday. Non-vfr again Saturday through Sunday.

Marine
Southwest winds will be present tonight as weak low pressure lifts
north across lake erie. Winds will ramp up on Friday ahead of a cold
front that will move east across the lake towards midday. Winds on
the lake will increase to 30 knots by the late morning hours. Can
not rule out that a few reports of near gale conditions may occur on
the east end of the lake but looks brief and will keep the winds at
30 knots for now.

Winds will be light Sunday then shift to the northwest and increase
with the passage of another cold front. Small craft advisories may
be needed again east of cleveland.

Cle watches warnings advisories
Oh... Winter weather advisory until 7 pm est this evening for
ohz009>013-019>023-029>033-038-047.

Winter weather advisory until 3 am est Friday for ohz014-089.

Pa... Winter weather advisory until 3 am est Friday for paz001>003.

Marine... Small craft advisory from 6 am Friday to 4 pm est Saturday for
lez145>149.

Small craft advisory from 6 am Friday to 3 am est Saturday for
lez142>144.

Synopsis... Djb
near term... Djb
short term... Riley
long term... Kec riley
aviation... Jamison
marine... Riley


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
HHLO1 - Huron Light, OH 23 mi67 min SSE 7 G 14 35°F 1013.2 hPa (-3.7)
OWXO1 - Old Woman Creek, OH 24 mi82 min ESE 2.9 35°F 1015 hPa33°F
MRHO1 - 9063079 - Marblehead, OH 25 mi37 min SE 6 G 8 34°F 41°F1015.2 hPa33°F
SBIO1 - South Bass Island, OH 30 mi67 min SE 13 G 16 36°F 1015.5 hPa (-3.7)
TWCO1 40 mi17 min SE 8 G 9.9 36°F 1011.9 hPa34°F
45005 - W ERIE 28NM Northwest of Cleveland, OH 42 mi27 min SSE 16 G 21 37°F 1015 hPa35°F
LORO1 42 mi37 min SE 8 G 9.9 36°F
THRO1 - 9063085 - Toledo, OH 46 mi37 min ESE 2.9 G 5.1 33°F 1014.8 hPa31°F

Wind History for Marblehead, OH
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Mansfield - Mansfield Lahm Regional Airport, OH32 mi75 minSE 92.50 miLight Snow Fog/Mist33°F33°F100%1015.3 hPa

Wind History from MFD (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE5NE6NE7NE8NE10NE8NE7E8E10E10E8E11E10E10E10E13E13E12E11SE11SE11SE8SE9SE8
1 day agoW9
G16
NW8W65NW5W5NW8NW10W9W11
G15
NW8NW8NW10N5CalmCalmNW3N3N6NW4E3CalmN4NE6
2 days agoE3N5CalmCalmCalmNW4CalmNW4NW4NW5NW5NW7NW10NW10NW7NW5NW9NW11
G17
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G18

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Cleveland, OH (16,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Cleveland, OH
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.