Monday, June18, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Saybrook Manor, CT

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 5:15AMSunset 8:28PM Monday June 18, 2018 12:59 PM EDT (16:59 UTC) Moonrise 10:44AMMoonset 12:00AM Illumination 27% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ330 Long Island Sound East Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 1038 Am Edt Mon Jun 18 2018
Today..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt this afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less, then around 2 ft this afternoon.
Tonight..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 1 to 2 ft. Chance of showers and tstms. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tue..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers in the morning.
Tue night..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Wed..SE winds around 5 kt, becoming S in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less.
Wed night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming E after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers.
Thu..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Thu night..E winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming ne after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less.
Fri..NE winds around 5 kt, becoming se in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less.
Fri night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
ANZ300 1038 Am Edt Mon Jun 18 2018
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. A low pressure trough will set up to the west of the waters today, followed by a cold frontal passage from the north tonight. Weak high pressure will build in on Tuesday, then give way to another cold front pushing through on Wednesday. High pressure will build over the waters on Thursday, then slide offshore on Friday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Saybrook Manor, CT
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location: 41.21, -72.41     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 181516
afdokx
area forecast discussion
national weather service new york ny
1116 am edt Mon jun 18 2018

Synopsis
A trough of low pressure builds in to western portions of the
tri-state today, followed by a cold front crossing the area
tonight. Weak high pressure then builds in Tuesday and Tuesday
night before giving way to another cold front pushing through
the area Wednesday and Wednesday night. High pressure then
builds over the area through Thursday night then slides offshore
Friday and Friday night. Another frontal system impacts the area
this weekend.

Near term through tonight
A small decrease in clouds was made in the gridded forecast
database this morning with most observations within a few
degrees agreement with forecast values for temperatures and
dewpoints. The forecast overall remains on track.

Wnw flow sets up aloft by this afternoon as the deep layered
ridge axis sinks to the se. It should be dry this morning due to
subsidence from the departing ridge.

A weak 700-500 hpa shortwave trough moves into western areas
this afternoon, as a pre- frontal trough sets up over the lower
hudson valley and NE nj as well. The pre- frontal trough will
enhance low level convergence to the W and N of nyc with the
shortwave serving as a trigger to act on capes progged in this
area of at least 1500 j kg and around 30-35 kt of 0-6 km bulk
shear. Bulk richardson numbers are fairly high (generally
greater than 70) so they do not support super cells and but
favor the possibility of multi- cellular convection out ahead of
the cold front. The NAM has been fairly consistent in
indicating this potential over NE nj lower hudson valley late
this afternoon early this evening over the past two nights. The
latest convection allowing models (cams) are supporting this
idea as well, but a few hours faster. The GFS is a bit slower
than both the NAM and cams.

Based on this, agree with SPC in assessing a marginal risk for
severe thunderstorms over the lower hudson valley, but would
think that the threat GOES a bit farther S into NE nj than they
indicate. Any severe storms over the hudson valley could
maintain themselves as they track into interior portions of s
ct winchell, so there is a marginal severe threat there as
well. If there is any severe weather this afternoon early
evening in the threat area, it will be due to damaging wind
gusts.

After this first round of convection, there should be a lull,
then there should be another round late tonight ahead of the
cold front. There is some question as to how well this
convection holds together as it moves into our marine dominated
airmass, so have capped pops at chance.

However, precipitable waters increase to around 2" this
afternoon and remain high until the cold front moves through. As
a result, there is the threat for locally heavy rainfall with
both rounds of convection. Refer to the hydrology section of the
afd for details.

With the cmc-global being alone in wanting to linger
precipitation into Tuesday, have opted for the faster timing of
a non-cmc-global blend with the cold frontal precipitation.

Highs today should be around 10-15 degrees above normal. With
interior areas and most of nyc reaching the upper 80s to lower
90s and some pockets of mid 90s passable in NE nj and the lower
hudson valley. It is this area that there is a high likelihood
of heat indices reaching 100 degrees this afternoon. As a
result, have continued the heat advisory from 15z to 00z for ne
nj and the lower hudson valley. Elsewhere heat indices should
top out in the 90s over the interior and most of nyc and in the
80s near the immediate coast.

Lows tonight will run around 10 degrees above normal.

There is a high risk of rip currents at atlantic beaches mainly
this afternoon and evening.

Short term Tuesday
Nw flow at all levels will dry and clear things out fairly
rapidly.

Highs on Tuesday should be around 5 to 10 degrees above normal.

It likely will be warmer at coastal areas on Tuesday than
today, due to the lack of a seabreeze on Tuesday due to the nw
flow.

Long term Tuesday night through Sunday
Nw flow aloft continues Tuesday night and with no shortwaves
progged to move through the area, it should remain dry with
minimal cloud cover.

The flow flattens on Wednesday as a northern stream closed low
builds into quebec. As it does so, a shortwave rotating around
the base of this trough moves towards the area in the afternoon.

This could bring some spotty showers to mainly western zones
Wednesday afternoon. The axis of this cutoff low then crosses
the area Wednesday night, brining more widespread showers to
the entire area. In addition with showalter indices progged to
go to the 0 to 4 range, have added a slight chance of thunder
to the forecast as well. Precipitable waters return to around
1.75 to 2 by late Wednesday, so locally heavy rainfall could
again be possible. See the hydrology section of the afd for
details.

Nw flow then returns to the region on the backside of the trough
Thursday and Thursday night. With relatively dry low levels,
both of these periods should remain dry.

Deep layered ridging builds in Friday and Friday night, with
associated subsidence keeping things dry.

A mean trough builds into the NE for the upcoming weekend with
unsettled weather the likely outcome - so should see a few
rounds of showers and possibly some rumbles of thunder as well
mainly from Saturday afternoon through Sunday.

Temperatures Wednesday-Sunday should generally be within a few
degrees of either side of normal.

Aviation 15z Monday through Friday
High pressure to the south will give way to an approaching cold
front tonight.

Stratus continues to advect up the coast today. Will likely hold
right along the beachfront during the day light hours, but could
see occasional sct MVFR clouds this afternoon. Will have to
watch potential for it to come onshore at kisp or kgon with sct-
bkn ifr CIGS this evening.

Widely scattered tstms with brief MVFR ifr vsby and gusty winds
are possible with a pre-frontal trough late today and early
this evening, most likely from about 20z-22z at kswf, 21z-23z at
khpn kbdr, 22z-01z at the nyc metro terminals, and 00z-02z at
kisp. Since the expected coverage is scattered at most and not
guaranteed to have direct terminal impacts, have continued to
mention via vcts rather than prob30 tempo. Currently a low to
moderate confidence forecast on development and timing.

An additional round of showers isolated tstms possible with the
front itself late tonight as it passes through.

S-sw flow will increase today, with sustained winds 10-15 kt
and gusts around 20 kt this afternoon and early evening. Sea
breezes at kjfk klga kisp could be stronger, with sustained
winds at or just over 15 kt and gusts approaching 25 kt.

Ny metro enhanced aviation weather support...

detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component fcsts,
can be found at: http:

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
LDLC3 - New London Ledge CT - Ledge Light Weather 19 mi50 min SW 15 G 16 69°F 1015.5 hPa62°F
NLNC3 - 8461490 - New London, CT 20 mi42 min SSW 8.9 G 15 80°F 63°F1014.3 hPa
MTKN6 - 8510560 - Montauk, NY 26 mi42 min 71°F 64°F1014.9 hPa
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 27 mi42 min S 6 G 7 71°F 66°F1014.5 hPa
44017 - 23 Nautical Miles Southwest of Montauk Point, NY 41 mi70 min SSW 16 G 18 65°F 62°F2 ft1015.9 hPa (-1.7)64°F
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 41 mi48 min S 6 G 11 78°F 62°F1013.8 hPa

Wind History for New London, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Chester, Chester Airport, CT13 mi65 minSW 10 G 1810.00 miFair82°F69°F66%1014.9 hPa
Groton / New London, Groton / New London Airport, CT21 mi64 minSW 1210.00 miFair75°F66°F74%1014.2 hPa

Wind History from SNC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmSW8S7S7S5
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SW6SW4SW4SW6W6SW7SW7SW6W5CalmCalm--NW4N6N4N6NW73
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Tide / Current Tables for Saybrook Jetty, Connecticut River, Connecticut
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Saybrook Jetty
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Mon -- 02:40 AM EDT     4.53 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:15 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:03 AM EDT     -0.28 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 10:44 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 03:19 PM EDT     4.00 feet High Tide
Mon -- 08:25 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 09:24 PM EDT     0.33 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
3.244.44.543.22.21.20.2-0.300.922.93.643.93.32.61.810.40.41.1

Tide / Current Tables for The Race, Long Island Sound, New York Current
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The Race
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:21 AM EDT     3.22 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 03:37 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 05:14 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 06:46 AM EDT     -3.71 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 10:04 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 10:42 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 12:56 PM EDT     3.21 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 04:20 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 07:18 PM EDT     -3.28 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 08:23 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 10:31 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
3.232.21-0.6-2.3-3.4-3.7-3-1.7-0.11.52.83.22.81.90.5-1.1-2.5-3.2-3.1-2.1-0.80.7

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.