Tuesday, October24, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Saybrook Manor, CT

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:12AMSunset 5:56PM Tuesday October 24, 2017 7:03 AM EDT (11:03 UTC) Moonrise 11:31AMMoonset 9:25PM Illumination 18% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 4 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ330 Long Island Sound East Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 432 Am Edt Tue Oct 24 2017
.gale warning in effect through late tonight...
Today..SE winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt, becoming S 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt late. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Showers likely this morning. Chance of tstms. Showers this afternoon. Vsby 1 to 3 nm late this morning and afternoon.
Tonight..S winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 40 kt, diminishing to 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 35 kt after midnight. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Showers and chance of tstms in the evening, then showers after midnight. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Wed..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Showers. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Wed night..S winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming W after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Chance of showers. Vsby 1 to 3 nm in the evening.
Thu..NW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming W 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 1 to 2 ft. Chance of showers in the afternoon.
Thu night..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, becoming nw 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 1 to 2 ft in the evening, then 1 ft or less.
Fri..W winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Fri night..SW winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sat..S winds around 5 kt, becoming se in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sat night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less, then around 2 ft after midnight. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
ANZ300 432 Am Edt Tue Oct 24 2017
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. A slow moving cold front approaches from the west today, slowly crossing the waters tonight into Wednesday. A wave of low pressure moves along the frontal boundary Thursday and moves into the canadian maritime Thursday night. High pressure builds into the waters Thursday night and dominates through the weekend.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Saybrook Manor, CT
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location: 41.21, -72.41     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 240901
afdokx
area forecast discussion
national weather service new york ny
501 am edt Tue oct 24 2017

Synopsis
A slow moving cold front approaches the region through tonight.

The front slowly moves across Wednesday and exits east of the
region Wednesday night. A cold front just east of the area
Thursday becomes stationary as a wave of low pressure tracks
northward along the front. The low moves into the canadian
maritime Thursday night as high pressure builds into the region.

High pressure dominates into Saturday. A cold front then merges
with a developing low along the southeastern coast Saturday
night into Monday.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
The upper level trough deepens to the southeast with likewise a
huge dip in the jet stream. The will strengthen a parent low in
the great lakes as well as and its associated cold front. The
front approaches the region as the parent low tracks into
quebec. The high precipitable water of 1.8 to 1.9 from all the
warm and moist air advection will be above the 90th percentile
for this time of year according to okx sounding climatology. The
low level jet will be a main reason for this with magnitude of
50-60 kt at 2kft. Instability will be increasing as well in the
low levels from this.

In terms of weather and potential hazards, rain showers become
more expansive in coverage today with rain showers becoming
heavy by this afternoon and into tonight out east. There will
also be a chance of thunderstorms. The winds will be increasing
out of the south, with higher winds potentially with the downward
momentum transport via heavy rain or thunderstorms. Low level
jet and surface southerly winds maximized most along the coast
where gusts of 40 to 50 mph are forecast so areal extent of
wind advisory was not changed. Inland zones have a lesser chance
of getting 40 to 50 mph gusts and models reflect this lower
magnitude in their wind gust fields as well.

Spc has placed much of the region in a slight risk for severe
thunderstorms, mainly due to the potential for damaging winds
with a very low percentage probability of a tornado.

Short term 6 pm this evening through Wednesday night
The front continues to approach tonight and then slowly moves
across Wednesday, exiting Wednesday night. Meanwhile, the region
will still be to the east of the very deep upper level trough
with high precipitable water over the region until late
Wednesday.

Wind advisory still will be in effect much of tonight for
central and eastern long island and southern ct while to the
west it ends at midnight. The heavy rain and potential
thunderstorms east of nyc will still keep that downward momentum
transfer going to bring down the low level jet at times. Again
there will be a slight chance for winds to be severe as
indicated in the slight risk area from spc. Late at night, the
intensity of rain and chances of thunderstorms for southern ct
and long island lowers with the forecast decrease in
instability.

Wednesday will have lighter winds but still some steady rain
mainly across long island and southern ct. Weather dries out
Wednesday night with a light west to northwest flow taking place
behind the cold front.

Long term Thursday through Monday
A negatively tilted upper trough will be moving through the region
Thursday with the axis moving to the northeast Thursday evening.

Meanwhile, at the surface a cold front just east of long island and
extending south, offshore of the coast, will have a wave of low
pressure developing and moving along the front Thursday into
Thursday night. There are some spatial differences with the low,
with the GFS slightly farther to the east than the ecmwf. Now
looking like there will be a chance of some light precipitation, so
introduced slight to low chance probabilities for Thursday into
Thursday evening.

Weak upper ridging builds Thursday night and moves through during
Friday. Then Friday night into Saturday the ridge builds and
strengthens across the western atlantic as another northern stream
longwave trough moves through the northern plains and into the upper
midwest while digging into the southern plains and gulf coast region.

All signals still indicting that the full latitude trough will be
slow to progress eastward with the atlantic ridge in place.

Also a wave pf low pressure will be moving out of the gulf of mexico
and move through the eastern portion of the trough, and then merge
with a cold front and low pressure moving into from the ohio valley.

So will have a prolonged period of probabilities for rain early
Sunday through Monday, with the coastal low expected to track inland
and then move north through the eastern states. There remains
uncertainty with the location and timing of the low, and the
potential for any heavy precipitation with this system.

Aviation 09z Tuesday through Saturday
A slow moving cold front will approach the region today and
crosses the region tonight into Wednesday morning.

MVFR ifr CIGS have returned this morning along with some scattered
showers. The showers become more widespread from west to east
after 12z.

With the approach of a low level jet, showers with embedded thunder
are likely today. The rain will be heavy at times accompanied by
strong wind gusts, especially near the coast. Compression and low
level wind shear are likely, mainly ssw 45-55kt@2kft for coastal
terminals.

Se winds have been increasing this morning with gusts becoming more
frequent around 25kt. Some gusts 30-40kt possible after 12z today,
especially the nyc terminals.

Ny metro enhanced aviation weather support...

detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: http:

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44039 - Central Long Island Sound 14 mi48 min SSE 19 G 25 68°F 2 ft
LDLC3 - New London Ledge CT - Ledge Light Weather 19 mi33 min SE 18 G 20 67°F 1014.6 hPa65°F
NLNC3 - 8461490 - New London, CT 20 mi45 min SSE 12 G 17 67°F 65°F1015.1 hPa
MTKN6 - 8510560 - Montauk, NY 26 mi45 min 66°F 64°F1014.7 hPa
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 27 mi45 min S 12 G 18 69°F 66°F1013.7 hPa
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 41 mi51 min S 15 G 19 69°F 66°F1012.4 hPa

Wind History for New London, CT
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Chester, Chester Airport, CT13 mi68 minSSE 12 G 1710.00 miOvercast68°F66°F94%1014.9 hPa
Groton / New London, Groton / New London Airport, CT21 mi67 minSSE 22 G 3110.00 miOvercast and Breezy68°F64°F90%1015.1 hPa

Wind History from SNC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmE4SE5SE5
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SE7SE5SE3CalmSE4SE6SE7SE6SE10S11
G18
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1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW55S85
G11
S5S4S4CalmS5S5--CalmCalm--Calm--CalmS4S3
2 days agoNW7NW5NW4CalmCalmSW64SW6S85SW6SW7SW7SW6SW5SW564W5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Saybrook Jetty, Connecticut River, Connecticut
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Saybrook Jetty
Click for Map
Tue -- 02:06 AM EDT     3.33 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:11 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 07:53 AM EDT     0.98 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 11:29 AM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 02:23 PM EDT     3.97 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:54 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 08:40 PM EDT     0.59 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 09:24 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
2.73.13.33.12.621.51.111.21.82.63.23.73.93.93.32.61.91.20.70.611.6

Tide / Current Tables for The Race, Long Island Sound, New York Current
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The Race
Click for Map
Tue -- 02:56 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 05:54 AM EDT     -2.47 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 07:10 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:57 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 11:28 AM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 11:49 AM EDT     2.35 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 03:03 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 05:53 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 06:17 PM EDT     -2.75 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 09:23 PM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 09:34 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
2.41.81-0.1-1.2-2.2-2.5-2-1.10.11.22.12.31.91.10.1-1.1-2.1-2.7-2.6-1.8-0.70.51.5

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.