Saturday, March17, 2018

Marine Weather and Tides
Vernon Center, NJ

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.

Sunrise 7:02AMSunset 7:08PM Saturday March 17, 2018 12:35 PM EDT (16:35 UTC) Moonrise 7:26AMMoonset 7:21PM Illumination 1% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 1 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ338 NEw York Harbor- 1224 Pm Edt Sat Mar 17 2018
.small craft advisory in effect until 6 pm edt this evening...
This afternoon..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Tonight..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Waves 1 to 2 ft this evening, then 1 ft or less.
Sun..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sun night..W winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming N 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt after midnight. Waves 1 ft or less in the evening, then 1 to 2 ft.
Mon..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Mon night..S winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming E after midnight. Waves 1 ft or less.
Tue..NE winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Chance of snow. Chance of rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tue night..NE winds 15 to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 3 ft. Chance of snow. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Wed..NE winds 15 to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 3 ft. Chance of snow. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Wed night..N winds around 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Chance of snow in the evening. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
ANZ300 1224 Pm Edt Sat Mar 17 2018
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. Low pressure over the canadian maritimes will move slowly eastward this weekend while a series of cold fronts will pass through, one this evening and another Sunday night. High pressure will then build from the northwest on Monday. A series of low pressure centers will then pass to the south and east during mid week.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Vernon Center, NJ
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location: 41.21, -74.51     debug

Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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Fxus61 kphi 171507
area forecast discussion
national weather service mount holly nj
1107 am edt Sat mar 17 2018

Low pressure will remain cutoff over the canadian maritimes this
weekend. Meanwhile, an area of low pressure will pass to our south
today, then high pressure builds in from the north and west tonight
and Sunday. A weak cold front progresses southward through the
region Sunday night. An area of low pressure tracking across the mid
south on Monday will move eastward along the virginia-north carolina
border Monday night. This low is expected to deepen as it moves
northeastward off the mid-atlantic coast on Tuesday. Another wave of
low pressure may develop along the slow-moving frontal boundary,
passing south and east of the region on Wednesday. High pressure
should start to build in Thursday and Friday.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
No major changes to the forecast today. Weak high pressure that
was across the area overnight continues weaken across the area,
but build near the bahamas, while an area of low pressure
remains near the canadian maritimes. An area of low pressure
will skirt just to our south today along a frontal boundary
located well to our south. Clouds will continue to increase
across the southern half of the area, while the northern half of
the area may remain mostly to partly sunny. As a short wave
moves across the area during the afternoon, the light rain to
our west may reach the southern half of the area. The delmarva
region and southern far southern new jersey have the highest
chances for light rain this afternoon.

Winds will gusty today, but not windy as Friday, with gusts
mostly in the 20-25 mph range, although some higher gusts around
30 mph will likely occur in the higher elevations.. Afternoon
highs will be mainly in the 40s except some upper 30s across the
southern poconos.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 am Sunday
Weak wave to our south quickly moves offshore through the evening
with an otherwise mainly clear and chilly night on tap as a NW flow
continues to dominate. Lows will be mainly in the 20s except around
30 over much of the DELMARVA as well as the philadelphia metro
area and upper teens over the southern poconos.

Long term Sunday through Friday
The focus in the long-term period continues to be on the midweek
storm. A positive note is there has been a clear trend in the
guidance over the past couple of cycles, including last night's 00z
run, toward a more progressive solution that would favor a
suppressed storm track for the first wave of low pressure Monday
night-Tuesday and even more notably for the second wave Wednesday-
Wednesday night. If these trends were to hold up, the extent,
duration and severity of impacts would be much lower than what
models were indicating 1-2 days ago. Given this storm is still 3-5
days out and the predictability skill for such a complex setup (with
a parade of disturbances in play along with the potential for
phasing to occur) is limited, it's a bit premature to rule out a
shift back in the other direction that would put us back in play for
a long duration, higher-impact event from late Monday night
through Wednesday night. The bottom line is the poor run-to-
run continuity and lingering spread among the operational models
and the individual ensemble forecast systems hinders our
ability to provide specific details with high certainty, on
things such as rain and snow accumulations, where the rain snow
line sets up and how it evolves over time, and the magnitude of
winds beach erosion coastal flooding.

Keeping the abovementioned caveats in mind, a huge motivating factor
for cautiously maintaining our message for a potentially high-impact
event is the vulnerability of our infrastructure following the
recent nor'easters this month: trees have been weakened damaged,
restoration efforts are still ongoing, and soils in E pa and nj are
still very saturated. This all makes our region more susceptible
than usual to another round of power outages and flooding if a
worst-case scenario would come to fruition... So we don't want
to let our guard down too soon.

Concerning the rain vs. Snow aspect of this storm... The track of
the primary surface low will likely be south of our region (along
the va-nc border) while a secondary coastal low develops near
norfolk and tracks northeastward over or nearby the gulf stream.

Synoptically, this would be a favorable pattern for snow across the
region. However, thermal profiles look to be marginally supportive
of accumulating snow (more likely a rain-snow-sleet mix) at least
initially, especially in the i-95 corridor and coastal plain, given
the lack of cold air from a storm system of pac NW origin and the
influences of a high Sun angle in late march. A transition to wet
snow would be possible at some point as (1) canadian high pressure
building eastward allows cold air to drain southward into the region
and (2) the coastal low deepens off the mid-atlantic coast while the
upper low reaches our longitude. The latter would favor strong
dynamical cooling although it is highly conditional on deep ascent
and heavier precip rates setting up over our region- which is
becoming increasingly doubtful given the latest trends.

High pressure builds in behind the storm later Thursday into Friday.

Cold (5-10 degrees below normal) and dry conditions would be
expected in this pattern.

Aviation 15z Saturday through Wednesday
The following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg,
kilg, kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.

Today...VFR with increasing clouds. Cloud bases are expected to be
mainly above 10,000 feet. West to northwest wind around 8 to 12
knots with gusts of 15 to 20 knots.

Tonight...VFR. NW winds less than 10 knots.


Sunday and Monday...VFR. NW winds of 10 kt or less on Sunday may
briefly back out of the w-sw ahead of a surface trough Sunday
evening, then become n-ne late Sunday night-Monday morning. High
forecast confidence.

Monday night and Tuesday... Onset of precip and MVFR ifr conditions
likely to occur late sometime Monday night or Tuesday morning. At
this point, a wintry mix (rain, snow, sleet) would be favored for i-
95 terminals, rain farther S E (acy, miv) and snow or dry conditions
farther N W (abe rdg). Confidence on ptype and amounts of each
ptype are still low at this point. NE winds increase and become
very gusty with the strongest winds expected near the coast (e.G.,
acy) on Tuesday.

Tuesday night through Wednesday night... Following the first part of
the event Monday night-Tuesday, a second wave of low pressure could
prolong the precip, ifr conditions and gusty NE winds. However,
there is less support for this scenario from the latest model
guidance with the potential for drying conditions, especially
along and north of phl. Forecast confidence is low.

Expect marginal SCA conditions to continue through the day for
the nj coastal waters. The winds here could briefly subside
below SCA levels this morning before increasing again this

Heading into tonight, winds should diminish below SCA levels for all
areas by early this evening so SCA over the nj waters ends at 6


Sunday and Monday... Winds and seas below SCA criteria. A w-nw wind
direction on Sunday becomes n-ne Sunday night and eventually E on

Monday night through Wednesday... Nely winds should quickly
strengthen late Monday night and Tuesday to gale force while seas
build as a low pressure organizes to our south. Nely gales and
high seas will likely continue through Wednesday. A brief period
of storm force winds would be possible if the low deepens fast
enough but that is still highly uncertain at the point given the
southward trend with the storm track.

Fire weather
Relative humidity values will drop into the mid to upper 20s today
with gusts in the 20s as well. However, fuel moistures remain
above critical levels, so no enhanced statements are expected at
this time.&&

Phi watches warnings advisories
Pa... None.

Nj... None.

De... None.

Md... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 6 pm edt this evening for

Synopsis... Klein
near term... Fitzsimmons robertson
short term... Fitzsimmons
long term... Klein
aviation... Fitzsimmons klein
marine... Fitzsimmons klein
fire weather... Robertson

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MHRN6 43 mi47 min W 14 G 19
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 44 mi47 min 37°F 40°F1009.9 hPa
BGNN4 - 8519483 - Bergen Point West Reach, NJ 44 mi53 min 37°F 40°F1009.5 hPa
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 45 mi47 min W 19 G 22 35°F 1009.9 hPa
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 48 mi47 min NNW 16 G 19 35°F 38°F1009.8 hPa

Wind History for Bergen Point West Reach, NY
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1 day
2 days

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Sussex, Sussex Airport, NJ6 mi42 minW 6 G 1610.00 miFair37°F14°F39%1008.6 hPa
Andover, Aeroflex-Andover Airport, NJ18 mi41 minWNW 8 mi37°F10°F34%1009.7 hPa

Wind History from FWN (wind in knots)
Last 24hrW9
1 day agoW13
2 days agoW7W10

Tide / Current Tables for Haverstraw, Hudson River, New York
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Click for MapNote: Values for the Hudson River above the George Washington bridge are based upon averages for the six months May to October

Sat -- 05:49 AM EDT     -0.09 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:04 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:23 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 09:14 AM EDT     New Moon
Sat -- 11:17 AM EDT     3.58 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:10 PM EDT     -0.23 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:04 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 07:19 PM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 11:33 PM EDT     3.50 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Tide / Current Tables for Haverstraw (Hudson River), New York Current
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Haverstraw (Hudson River)
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Sat -- 01:25 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 05:06 AM EDT     -1.33 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 07:04 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:23 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 08:40 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 09:14 AM EDT     New Moon
Sat -- 10:49 AM EDT     0.99 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 01:49 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 05:30 PM EDT     -1.38 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 07:04 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 07:19 PM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 09:04 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 11:11 PM EDT     0.97 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.