Tuesday, May21, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Vernon Center, NJ

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 5:32AMSunset 8:15PM Tuesday May 21, 2019 6:49 PM EDT (22:49 UTC) Moonrise 11:09PMMoonset 7:48AM Illumination 91% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ338 NEw York Harbor- 347 Pm Edt Tue May 21 2019
Tonight..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft this evening, then 1 ft or less.
Wed..NW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming W in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less.
Wed night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Thu..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Thu night..S winds around 10 kt, becoming W after midnight. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms.
Fri..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Fri night..N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, becoming ne 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sat..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sat night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers.
Sun..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sun night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Winds and waves higher in and near tstms.
ANZ300 347 Pm Edt Tue May 21 2019
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. High pressure builds in through Wednesday, then offshore Wednesday night. A warm front will approach on Thursday and move across the area Thursday night. High pressure returns to the region on Friday. The first in a series of fronts will move into region during Saturday night, with subsequent fronts moving across the region during the remainder of the holiday weekend.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Vernon Center, NJ
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location: 41.21, -74.51     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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Fxus61 kphi 212227
afdphi
area forecast discussion
national weather service mount holly nj
627 pm edt Tue may 21 2019

Synopsis
High pressure will build into the area tonight and Wednesday
bringing dry and pleasant weather. A warm front will pass through
the area Wednesday night with a cold front arriving Thursday night
into Friday morning. High pressure will again be nearby the area
Friday and into Saturday. A cold front will likely cross the region
late Saturday into early Sunday potentially stalling just our south
towards the start of next week.

Near term until 6 am Wednesday morning
Winds beginning to diminish across the region, with gusts mainly
to 20 mph or so. Strongest winds up in the mountains, generally
gusting 30-35 mph.

Winds diminish to less than 10 mph after sunset.

Surface high pressure will build into the region tonight as the
mid-level ridge builds above it. We will see some cirrus track
through the area, but clouds won't be thick. So with just a thin
veil of cirrus at times and decreasing winds, lows tonight will
bottom out in the 40s and lower 50s most places. Highly
urbanized locales could stay in the mid 50s. No 30s expected, so
not concerns with frost.

Short term 6 am Wednesday morning through 6 pm Wednesday
For Wednesday, the surface high will be centered across the
region. The mid-level ridge axis will still be to our west. So
at worst we are expecting an increase in mid-level clouds during
the afternoon.

The northwest winds will be much lighter Wednesday and turn
more southerly southwesterly in the afternoon.

Temperatures will be warmer Wednesday... About 3 to 7 degrees
above today's highs. The normal high for philadelphia is
75... And that's what we're forecasting.

Only a slight increase in dewpoints are expected Wednesday, so
it will be comfortable.

Long term Wednesday night through Tuesday
Overview...

the forecast philosophy for the long term remains mostly unchanged.

A persistent combination of a western trough and a southeast ridge
continue to dictate the CONUS pattern, with the mid-atlantic sitting
on the northern periphery of the ridge. While there are some
indications this may start to break towards next week, it appears
this general configuration will likely carry us right through the
long weekend and into early next week. The strength of the ridge
will continue to favor near to above normal temperatures, though a
couple of frontal passages and occasional onshore wind components
will provide cooler air at times. As weather systems continue to
regularly track northeast out of the plains (fueling continued
severe weather there), we continue to see opportunities for air mass
changes and associated showers and storms every two or three days.

For the long term, the two potential areas of interest that stick
out for impactful weather are Thursday evening and overnight, as
well as late in the day on Saturday. In both of these cases, a cold
front will be approaching the area, and both times we may have a
threat of strong to severe storms. More details below.

Dailies...

Wednesday night-Thursday... A warm front should push through
Wednesday night. Some showers are likely, and an elevated
thunderstorm is also possible especially in the western half of the
region. These could linger into Thursday morning. Otherwise, most of
the daytime Thursday looks dry with temperatures warming above
average and dew points also increasing significantly in the
afternoon compared to much lower values in the morning.

Thursday evening-night... Currently this looks to be the most active
portion of the forecast period. On the synoptic level, everything
looks about the same as it did yesterday. Low pressure currently
moving northeastward out of the plains will make a hard turn to east
as it nears the western great lakes. It then turns southeast as it
rounds the top of the southeast ridge. Guidance is in good agreement
on the surface low re-strengthening as it makes this turn, which
will be accompanied by strengthening wind fields. All in all, what
appears to develop over the mid-atlantic Thursday evening is a
rather favorable environment for severe weather. The parameters not
in question are wind shear and moisture. 0-6km shear rises near to
above 50 kt during the evening and early overnight hours. SRH also
looks quite impressive including in the lowest levels. For moisture,
pwats look to surge towards 1.6-1.8 inches during the evening hours,
with surface dew points well into the 60s. The main question mark is
instability. To our west, strong instability in excess of 1500j kg
of surface based CAPE is likely to build during the day. As night
falls, a nocturnal inversion will probably start to develop, cutting
off the surface based instability. However, elevated instability is
likely to remain given steep mid-level lapse rates, so thunderstorms
will probably be able to sustain themselves, though the damaging
wind threat could decrease if a strong enough inversion forms. Spc
has placed most of the area in a slight risk for severe weather on
their day 3 outlook. While it's still a little early for specifics,
this period bears close watching.

Friday-Friday night... Behind the front, high pressure will be
firmly in control for what looks like a warm and pleasant day
Friday. Dry weather continues for the overnight.

Saturday-Saturday night... High pressure should allow dry weather to
continue for most of the day Saturday. A warm frontal passage, which
currently looks like a dry front, is likely early on Saturday, which
should set up a warm afternoon away from the coast where a lingering
onshore wind will keep things cooler. By Saturday evening and
overnight, the next cold front will be approaching as the parent low
tracks through ontario. This will bring a renewed threat of showers
and thunderstorms. The threat for strong storms appears lower here
compared to Thursday night, but there could be some threat
especially well away from the cooler coastal areas. SPC day 5
outlook is highlighting our far northwest zones for severe
potential.

Sunday-Sunday night... Sunday still looks to have a good chance to
remain mostly dry, as the front should get just far enough south to
put us in a true post-frontal air mass. It continues to look warm as
well with winds turning offshore out of the west. Mid to upper 80s
are likely in most areas. Still cannot completely rule out the front
stalling a little closer, which would mean an afternoon shower or
storm risk especially in southwestern portions of the region.

Monday-Tuesday... Very low confidence as model timings are
drastically different with the approach of the next frontal system.

Best thinking at the moment is another fairly warm day on Monday
with a late day shower or storm risk as a front approaches. This
would yield drier weather for Tuesday. However, much fine tuning
will need to be done here.

Aviation 22z Tuesday through Sunday
The following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg, kilg,
kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.

Tonight... VFR. Northwest winds diminishing to 5 to 10 knots.

Wednesday... VFR. Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming south or
southwest in the afternoon.

Outlook...

Wednesday night-Thursday night... VFR or MVFR Wednesday night with a
few showers possible. Most of the daytime Thursday should beVFR.

Thunderstorms possible Thursday evening and overnight. Southwesterly
winds shifting to northwesterly Thursday night. Gusts to 20 kt
possible during the day Thursday.

Friday-Friday night... VFR. Northwest wind gusting up to 20 kt,
becoming northeasterly and decreasing Friday night.

Saturday-Saturday night... VFR expected most of the day Saturday.

Showers and thunderstorms possible Saturday evening and overnight.

Winds gradually shifting from east to south on Saturday then south
to west on Saturday night.

Sunday... VFR. Light west-northwest wind.

Marine
Tonight... Sub-sca conditions with northwesterly winds 10 to 15
knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet.

Wednesday... Sub-sca conditions with northwesterly winds 10 to 15
knots, subsiding to 5 to 10 knots and becoming southeast in the
afternoon. Seas 1 to 2 feet.

Outlook...

Wednesday night-Sunday... A period of SCA conditions due to
southwesterly winds gusting near to above 25 kt is possible Thursday
afternoon and into the first part of the overnight. Otherwise, winds
and seas are expected to remain below SCA criteria.

Rip currents...

a northwest wind with little to no sea breeze expected should result
in a low risk.

Equipment
The kdix radar is back online. However, it will be in a test phase
through this afternoon. Intermittent outages are possible.

Phi watches warnings advisories
Pa... None.

Nj... None.

De... None.

Md... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Kruzdlo
near term... Kruzdlo mps
short term... Kruzdlo
long term... O'brien
aviation... Kruzdlo mps o'brien
marine... Kruzdlo mps o'brien
equipment...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MHRN6 43 mi49 min NW 16 G 20
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 44 mi43 min 71°F 60°F1014.3 hPa
BGNN4 - 8519483 - Bergen Point West Reach, NJ 44 mi43 min 70°F 64°F1014.4 hPa
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 45 mi43 min NW 22 G 27 70°F 1013.9 hPa
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 48 mi43 min N 20 G 24 67°F 59°F1014.7 hPa

Wind History for Bergen Point West Reach, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Sussex, Sussex Airport, NJ6 mi56 minNW 9 G 1510.00 miFair68°F35°F30%1015.5 hPa
Andover, Aeroflex-Andover Airport, NJ18 mi55 minNNW 10 G 17 mi68°F34°F28%1015.4 hPa

Wind History from FWN (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW9
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2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW3S3SW46SW65SW10
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Tide / Current Tables for Haverstraw, Hudson River, New York (2)
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Haverstraw
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Tue -- 12:29 AM EDT     3.63 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:32 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 07:28 AM EDT     -0.14 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:45 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 01:07 PM EDT     2.93 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:32 PM EDT     0.23 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 08:12 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 11:06 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.63.63.22.51.710.3-0.1-00.61.52.32.72.92.82.41.71.10.60.30.30.91.92.7

Tide / Current Tables for Haverstraw, Hudson River, New York
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Haverstraw
Click for Map
Tue -- 12:44 AM EDT     3.46 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:32 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 07:26 AM EDT     -0.24 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:45 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 01:18 PM EDT     2.73 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:31 PM EDT     0.14 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 08:12 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 11:06 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.43.43.12.51.70.90.3-0.2-0.10.51.42.12.52.72.62.21.610.50.20.20.71.62.5

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (18,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.