Wednesday, June19, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Clinton, CT

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6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 5:15AMSunset 8:28PM Wednesday June 19, 2019 1:43 PM EDT (17:43 UTC) Moonrise 10:29PMMoonset 7:14AM Illumination 95% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ330 Long Island Sound East Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 1228 Pm Edt Wed Jun 19 2019
This afternoon..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Slight chance of showers early, then chance of showers late. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tonight..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Showers likely, mainly this evening. Areas of fog mainly after midnight. Vsby 1 to 3 nm, decreasing to less than 1 nm after midnight.
Thu..E winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Areas of fog in the morning. Chance of showers. Vsby less than 1 nm, increasing to 1 to 3 nm in the afternoon.
Thu night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming sw after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less. Showers likely. Chance of tstms in the evening. Vsby 1 to 3 nm in the evening.
Fri..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Chance of showers in the morning.
Fri night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 1 to 2 ft.
Sat..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 1 to 2 ft.
Sat night..NW winds around 10 kt. Seas around 1 ft.
Sun..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sun night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
ANZ300 1228 Pm Edt Wed Jun 19 2019
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. A stationary front will remain to the south through Thursday morning, then lift into the waters as a warm front Thursday afternoon and evening ahead of approaching low pressure and a trailing cold front. The cold front will move through Thursday night and pass east on Friday, with high pressure returning for the weekend.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Clinton, CT
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location: 41.23, -72.53     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 191637
afdokx
area forecast discussion
national weather service new york ny
1237 pm edt Wed jun 19 2019

Synopsis
A stationary front will remain to the south through Thursday
morning, then should lift into the area as a warm front Thursday
afternoon and evening ahead of approaching low pressure and a
trailing cold front. The cold front will move through Thursday
night and pass east on Friday, with high pressure returning for
the weekend. Another frontal system may approach early next
week.

Near term through tonight
Just minor updates to temperatures and pops to reflect current
observations and latest trends.

Otherwise, clouds will continue to dominate through the day as
moisture returns via low level flow turn se-s. Scattered showers
will continue to develop through this afternoon and will be
mainly focused near just north of the stationary front cutting
across central nj. Do not think we will see heavy rain, but may
have to watch our far SW flank (staten island ny and union nj)
as these parts of our CWA will most likely to be closest to any
heavy rain the develops.

Another relatively cool day, with high temps about 10 deg below
avg (mainly upper 60s lower 70s), expected for the bulk of the
area. Mid 70s expected across far interior sections, where precip
chances will be later to increase.

Showers chances increase across the entire region this evening
as a weak wave of low pressure ripples along the stationary
front. Low temps should be in the lower mid 60s, possibly some
upper 50s across far eastern long island via greater marine
influence.

Short term Thursday
The stationary front should remain south of the area most of the
day, with scattered showers to its north. By late day however,
this front should begin to lift northward as a warm front as an
associated sfc low approaches western upstate ny, with
increasing chances for showers tstms especially for NE nj and
perhaps also nyc and adjacent portions of the lower hudson
valley. A few strong tstms may be possible by late day in near
these areas as instability increases in the warm sector and as
mid level wsw flow increases to near 40 kt.

High temps should range from the upper 60s across far ern
coastal sections, to the mid upper 70s in the nyc metro area.

Sided with a slower warm FROPA per nam, but if the front is
faster to lift through per GFS ecmwf, highs could be a few
degrees warmer, with 80-85 possible in nyc metro and NE nj and
well into the 70s elsewhere, with perhaps a correspondingly
higher and more widespread late day severe threat.

There will be a low rip current risk for atlantic ocean beaches
on Thursday.

Long term Thursday night through Tuesday
The synoptic pattern will change from its current state through the
long term period which helps bring a return to drier and more
seasonable conditions from Friday into the weekend. The persistent
closed upper low over eastern canada will still be in place Thursday
night, but will gradually shift towards the canadian maritimes this
weekend and then north atlantic early next week. Heights aloft will
rise behind the departing upper low into the weekend with a deep-
layered ridge settling over the eastern states Sunday into Monday.

The ridge should eventually move offshore on Tuesday, but the timing
remains uncertain as models can break ridges down too quickly.

For sensible weather, showers and possible thunderstorms will
continue Thursday night and gradually taper off early Friday morning
as the cold front finally moves offshore. The trend in the models
over the last 24 hours is to dry the atmosphere out quicker with
showers ending by 12z Friday. High pressure then builds later Friday
and the pressure gradient between the high and the departing low
supports gusty NW winds Friday afternoon. Gusts 25 to 30 mph are
possible, especially near the coast. Dry conditions and mostly sunny
skies prevail this weekend as high pressure settles over the region.

The high should move offshore into Monday with the next frontal
system approaching early next week. The timing of this front will be
dependent on how quickly the ridge moves offshore. Prefer a slower
overall timing with low chance pops late Monday into Tuesday.

Temperatures near seasonable levels are forecast Friday through the
weekend. Humidity levels lower considerably on Friday and will
continue to be pleasant this weekend. A warming trend is then
possible early next week with temperatures several degrees above
normal and increased humidity levels.

Aviation 18z Wednesday through Monday
A stalled frontal boundary remains near the terminals through
the TAF period.

The low stratus and light winds under 10 kts will continue.

Expect mainly ifr to MVFR for the balance of the morning, with
marginal improvements to ifr to MVFR into this afternoon but a
return to mainly ifr tonight.

Showers will become more widespread this afternoon into this
evening with a slight chance of thunder.

The uncertainty is with the timing of the lower conditions and
showers. Conditions may fluctuate between categories at times.

Ifr may end up lasting much of today.

Winds mostly SE today under 10kt, becoming more variable in
direction tonight.

Ny metro enhanced aviation weather support...

detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component fcsts,
can be found at:
http:

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 20 mi55 min S 5.1 G 6 69°F 66°F1011.8 hPa
LDLC3 - New London Ledge CT - Ledge Light Weather 25 mi63 min SE 5.1 G 6 65°F 1006.2 hPa62°F
NLNC3 - 8461490 - New London, CT 25 mi55 min SSW 5.1 G 8 72°F 60°F1011.5 hPa
MTKN6 - 8510560 - Montauk, NY 33 mi55 min 65°F 60°F1012.3 hPa
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 35 mi61 min SE 7 G 7 67°F 64°F1011 hPa
44017 - 23 Nautical Miles Southwest of Montauk Point, NY 45 mi43 min ESE 3.9 G 5.8 63°F 63°F1012.4 hPa63°F
44069 47 mi88 min ESE 3.9 G 5.8 65°F 71°F64°F

Wind History for New Haven, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Chester, Chester Airport, CT11 mi48 minSSE 410.00 miOvercast73°F66°F78%1011.8 hPa
New Haven, Tweed-New Haven Airport, CT19 mi50 minESE 610.00 miOvercast73°F64°F76%1011.5 hPa

Wind History from SNC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE443SE4CalmNE4CalmCalmNE3N5N4CalmN4N3NW3N3CalmCalmCalmCalmS4S45S5
1 day ago544SW73S3S4Calm3CalmS43CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE3SE5E5
2 days agoS6
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Calm3S6S5CalmCalmCalm3W4W3CalmNW4N4CalmNW4N3N4N5N6NW4CalmN43

Tide / Current Tables for Duck Island, Connecticut
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Duck Island
Click for Map
Wed -- 12:38 AM EDT     5.08 feet High Tide
Wed -- 05:16 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 06:55 AM EDT     -0.12 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:14 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 01:09 PM EDT     4.53 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:05 PM EDT     0.41 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 08:25 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 10:28 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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554.53.42.21.10.2-0.10.31.12.23.34.14.54.33.62.61.60.80.40.71.42.53.5

Tide / Current Tables for Shinnecock Canal, Railroad Bridge, New York Current
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Shinnecock Canal
Click for Map
Wed -- 02:30 AM EDT     -1.77 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 05:17 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 06:07 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 07:15 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 08:29 AM EDT     1.21 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 11:27 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 02:39 PM EDT     -1.48 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 05:59 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 08:24 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 08:38 PM EDT     1.56 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 10:27 PM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 11:58 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.6-1.3-1.7-1.7-1.4-0.9-0.10.81.21.210.4-0.4-1-1.4-1.5-1.1-0.600.91.51.51.30.8

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.