Sunday, December16, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Clinton, CT

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:08AMSunset 4:24PM Sunday December 16, 2018 10:30 PM EST (03:30 UTC) Moonrise 1:54PMMoonset 1:14AM Illumination 71% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 9 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ330 Long Island Sound East Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 932 Pm Est Sun Dec 16 2018
.small craft advisory in effect through Monday afternoon...
.gale watch in effect from Monday evening through late Monday night...
Tonight..N winds 15 to 20 kt. Gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Periods of rain until early morning, then chance of rain late.
Mon..NW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming W 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Gusts up to 30 kt. Seas subsiding to 2 to 3 ft.
Mon night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt, increasing to 20 to 25 kt after midnight. Gusts up to 35 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Tue..NW winds 20 to 25 kt, diminishing to 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Gusts up to 35 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Tue night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 4 ft, subsiding to around 2 ft after midnight.
Wed..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Wed night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Thu..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming S in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of rain in the afternoon.
Thu night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less, then around 2 ft after midnight. Rain likely. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Fri..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Rain likely. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Fri night..S winds around 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Chance of rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm in the evening.
ANZ300 932 Pm Est Sun Dec 16 2018
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. Low pressure tracks from south of long island to near nova scotia by Monday evening. Meanwhile a series of cold fronts cross the area Monday afternoon and night. Deep low pressure over the canadian maritimes Tuesday gives way to high pressure mid week. Another low impacts the area Thursday and Friday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Clinton, CT
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location: 41.23, -72.53     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 170254
afdokx
area forecast discussion
national weather service new york ny
954 pm est Sun dec 16 2018

Synopsis
Low pressure tracks from south of long island to near nova
scotia by Monday evening. Meanwhile a series of cold fronts
cross the area Monday afternoon and night. Deep low pressure
over the canadian maritimes Tuesday gives way to high pressure
mid week. Another low impacts the area Thursday and Friday, then
moves into canada next weekend.

Near term until 6 am Monday morning
Reports of snow have made its way all the way into new york
city, with central park reporting some snow. This may be due to
cold air draining down the hudson river valley into the city.

At the time, there was also bright banding as well as more
intense precipitation as compared to other areas, which allowed
the column to cool and thus supported snow for about an hour. As
the precipitation lightened up, the snow has changed back over
to rain. There is another band over nassau county and southern
queens which may allow frozen precipitation there as well,
therefore, mentioned rain or snow or sleet for a large area,
mainly from new york city into northeast new jersey, all of the
lower hudson valley, and portions of southwest connecticut.

However, much of the precipitation is tapering off in these
areas, and should end over the next few hours.

A cutoff low tracks to the southeast of long island through
the overnight. Sfc low does the same. Expect precipitation to
taper off from W to E overnight with the exiting of the the low
level jet. Across interior zones, the question is how fast does
low level cold air work in to change the rain to sleet snow.

For now have the potential for up to an inch of sleet and snow
across northern interior zones, but could just as easily see no
accumulation if the low level cold air does not arrive in time.

Lows tonight should be around 5-10 degrees above normal.

Short term 6 am Monday morning through Monday night
Northern stream shortwave ridging crosses the area Monday
morning, with associated subsidence keeping things dry. The
axis of a northern stream trough then pushes through the area
Monday afternoon and then continues to push SE off the mid-
atlantic and NE seaboard Monday night. Low levels likely will be
too dry for any precipitation on downsloping low level NW flow
- but given expected low level instability cannot rule out a
stray flurry or sprinkle Monday afternoon.

It will become quite gusty Monday afternoon and night with gusts
of 25-35 mph Monday afternoon and 30-40 mph Monday night. At
this time it appears the area should remain below wind advisory
criteria Monday night. However, given either slightly stronger
cold air advection or a tighter pressure gradient and low end
wind advisory gusts could be achieved Monday night both near the
coast and at higher elevations inland.

Highs on Monday should occur by early afternoon with slowly falling
temperatures later in the day. Highs should peak out in the
lower to mid 40s and wind chills by late afternoon from the mid
20s to lower 30s.

Lows Monday night should be near normal, with wind chills
generally in the 10s by late Monday night(around 20 nyc).

Long term Tuesday through Sunday
General model agreement noted as upper ridge and sfc high builds
Tuesday-Wednesday ahead of digging shortwave energy that develops
into an amplified trough over the mississippi valley by Thursday.

The sharpening trough looks to close off near the southern
appalachians as a surface low deepens. The low moves north up the
appalachians on Friday. This stacked low lifts northward into canada
next weekend. A warm front approaches and lifts northward Friday,
and lagging sfc front trough passes Saturday as the low traverses
well to the north.

A noticeably less amplified overall mean flow is expected toward the
end of the period.

Looks like the best chance for rain occurs later Thursday night and
through the day Friday as a broad area of moisture sweeps northward
across most of the east coast.

Gusty NW winds Tuesday will add to the chill, but winds diminish tue
night and Wednesday as the pressure gradient relaxes. E SE winds
increase Thursday-Thursday night ahead of the warm front, with gusty
s SW winds Friday. These winds veer to the west, and remain rather
gusty through the weekend as a tight pressure gradient remains in
place.

Temps remain right around or slightly below normal Tuesday-Wednesday
before rebounding to above normal thu-Friday. Readings return to
normal in CAA behind the storm next weekend, especially Sunday.Day.

Aviation 03z Monday through Friday
Low pressure southeast of montauk point will move up the coast
overnight and into Monday while deepening. By Monday afternoon
the low will be in the canadian maritimes, and then move slowly
north through Monday night.

MVFR conditions continue overnight with light rain ending
05z to 06z west, and 09z to 10z east. A mix of light rain, snow,
and sleet will be possible across portions of the lower hudson
valley and into the nyc metro area.

After the precipitation ends, MVFR ceilings will likely remain
overnight, until around 12z Monday when conditions improve to
vfr.

Winds will be northerly 10-15kt with gusts 20-25kt. Gusts
become more occasional, and possibly end for several hours late
this evening, and into the overnight. Winds will be backing to
the NW overnight with NW winds and gusts increasing Monday. The
highest winds and gusts will be during the afternoon and into
Monday evening. Sustained winds increase to around 20kt with
gusts 30-35kt.

Outlook for 00z Tuesday through Friday
Monday night Vfr. Gusty NW winds 15-20kt, g25-35kt, gradually
diminishing late.

Tuesday-Wednesday night Vfr. NW wind g15-25kt possible Tuesday, w-
wsw winds g15-20kt possible Wednesday.

Thursday Vfr, possibly becoming MVFR or lower late with rain.

Llws possible late.

Friday MVFR or lower in rain. SE winds 15-20kt g30kt
possible. Llws.

Marine
Sca now in effect ocean waters west of moriches inlet tonight.

Sca all non ocean waters (gusts up to 30 kt through Monday).

Gale gusts should fall off by midnight east of moriches inlet.

Gale gusts should return on the ocean waters by Monday
afternoon and on all waters Monday night in response to
strengthening low level cold advection. So have issued a gale
watch for Monday and Monday night for the coastal ocean waters
and for Monday night for the non-ocean waters.

Gusty NW winds persist Tuesday as deep low pressure moves along the
canadian maritimes and a tight pressure gradient remains in place.

Gale force gusts are possible, especially the ocean waters and
eastern LI sound before winds diminish Tuesday night and Wednesday.

The diminishing winds are due to high pressure, as it builds over
the waters.

Winds eventually shift around the s, then E SE Thursday as the high
moves east and a warm front approaches from the south. The warm
front likely moves north later Friday. Gusty winds are expected
Thursday night through Friday as deep low pressure passes to the
west of the local waters.

Rough seas Tuesday will subside Wednesday into Thursday. In general,
tranquil conditions are anticipated during the mid week period. Seas
build once again Thursday night and Friday due to increasing
winds.

Hydrology
Less than .25" western locations of additional rainfall is
expected, with 0.50-1.0" east. There is a low chance of minor
nuisance poor drainage flooding through this evening as a
result.

The next chance for significant rainfall of at least a half an inch
is expected to occur late in the week (Thursday night-Friday). Still
too early to determine if there will be any hydrologic concerns with
this potential late week event.

Equipment
Nyc central park winds are out of service until further notice.

Loss of data is due to a severed cable. Parts are on order.

Nyc NOAA weather radio station kwo35 (162.55 mhz) will remain off
the air for an extended period of time.

Okx watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ny... None.

Nj... None.

Marine... Gale watch from Monday evening through late Monday night for
anz330-335-338-340-345.

Small craft advisory until 6 pm est Monday for anz330-335-338-
340-345.

Gale watch from 6 am est Monday through late Monday night for
anz350-353-355.

Small craft advisory until 6 am est Monday for anz353-355.

Gale warning until midnight est tonight for anz350.

Synopsis... Maloit jp pw
near term... Maloit pw
short term... Maloit
long term... Pw
aviation... Met
marine... Maloit jp pw
hydrology... Maloit pw
equipment...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44039 - Central Long Island Sound 9 mi60 min N 18 G 21 41°F 45°F2 ft
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 20 mi30 min NNE 13 G 19 38°F 46°F1007.3 hPa (-1.7)
NLNC3 - 8461490 - New London, CT 25 mi30 min NNE 4.1 G 12 40°F 45°F1005.6 hPa (-2.2)
MTKN6 - 8510560 - Montauk, NY 33 mi30 min 42°F 43°F1004.9 hPa (-1.9)
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 35 mi36 min N 9.9 G 15 39°F 44°F1007.2 hPa
44017 - 23 Nautical Miles Southwest of Montauk Point, NY 45 mi40 min N 27 G 33 45°F 50°F12 ft1003.4 hPa (-1.5)44°F

Wind History for New Haven, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Chester, Chester Airport, CT11 mi35 minN 10 G 163.00 miLight Rain39°F37°F93%1006.4 hPa
New Haven, Tweed-New Haven Airport, CT19 mi37 minN 17 G 2310.00 miOvercast39°F36°F89%1007 hPa

Wind History from SNC (wind in knots)
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1 day agoSW4CalmSW3SW33SW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN5N5N5N5N3N6NE76NE6
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2 days agoN3NE3N3--CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE5Calm3SE4S6SE3SE5CalmCalmS3S5S53

Tide / Current Tables for Duck Island, Connecticut
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Duck Island
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:14 AM EST     Moonset
Sun -- 04:56 AM EST     4.41 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:09 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 11:08 AM EST     0.70 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 12:53 PM EST     Moonrise
Sun -- 04:21 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 05:17 PM EST     4.18 feet High Tide
Sun -- 11:25 PM EST     0.52 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.11.92.83.64.24.44.13.42.51.610.70.91.52.33.23.84.243.42.61.710.6

Tide / Current Tables for Shinnecock Canal, Railroad Bridge, New York Current
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Shinnecock Canal
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:14 AM EST     Moonset
Sun -- 12:23 AM EST     1.12 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 03:42 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 06:59 AM EST     -1.17 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 07:08 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 10:32 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 12:42 PM EST     1.03 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 12:53 PM EST     Moonrise
Sun -- 03:53 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 04:23 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 07:19 PM EST     -1.33 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 10:51 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.11.10.90.5-0.2-0.7-1-1.2-1-0.7-0.30.30.910.80.5-0.1-0.7-1.1-1.3-1.2-0.9-0.50.1

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (22,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.