Nantucket, MA Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Nantucket, MA

May 15, 2024 6:34 PM EDT (22:34 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 5:18 AM   Sunset 7:55 PM
Moonrise 12:10 PM   Moonset 1:56 AM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

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Marine Forecasts
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ANZ255 Coastal Waters Extending Out To 25 Nm South Of Marthas Vineyard And Nantucket- 403 Pm Edt Wed May 15 2024

.small craft advisory in effect from 11 pm edt this evening through Thursday evening - .

Tonight - E winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 20 to 25 kt after midnight. Gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft, building to 5 to 7 ft after midnight. Wave detail: E 3 ft at 8 seconds and S 2 ft at 8 seconds, becoming S 6 ft at 10 seconds and E 5 ft at 5 seconds. Patchy fog. Rain. Vsby 1 nm or less, increasing to 1 to 3 nm after midnight.

Thu - E winds around 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft. Wave detail: S 7 ft at 10 seconds and E 5 ft at 6 seconds. Patchy fog. Rain in the morning. Showers likely in the afternoon. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.

Thu night - NE winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft. Wave detail: E 7 ft at 8 seconds and S 6 ft at 9 seconds. Patchy fog in the evening. A chance of showers in the evening.

Fri - NE winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Wave detail: E 5 ft at 8 seconds and S 3 ft at 8 seconds.

Fri night through Sat night - NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Wave detail: E 5 ft at 8 seconds and S 2 ft at 8 seconds.

Sun through Mon - NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Wave detail: E 5 ft at 8 seconds and S 1 foot at 7 seconds.

Mon night - NE winds around 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.

ANZ200 403 Pm Edt Wed May 15 2024

Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters - A low pressures system will move from the mid-atlantic coast towards southern new england overnight with gusty easterly winds and occasional gale force gusts across the southern outer waters. In addition, coastal storm will bring periods of heavy rainfall which will reduce visibilities overnight into Thursday morning.
the low pressure system will shift east and away from southern new england Friday into Saturday. High pressure is expected late this weekend.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Nantucket, MA
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Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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FXUS61 KBOX 152021 AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 421 PM EDT Wed May 15 2024

SYNOPSIS

Steady rains spread in tonight as low pressure moves south of SNE. Rainfall could be heavy at times late tonight into early Thursday across CT, RI and perhaps into SE MA with some embedded thunder. Rain tapering off Thursday afternoon into the evening gradually from north to south. High pressure nosing southward from the Canadian Maritimes will result in mainly dry weather Friday through the weekend with nothing more than a spot shower or two. It will be cool along the immediate coast with onshore flow through the weekend, but pleasant across the interior.
Warmer temperatures are expected for the first half of next week with mainly dry weather continuing.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/

Highlights

* Steady rain spreads in late tonight into early Thu. Locally heavy rain possible across CT/RI and perhaps into southeast MA. Risk of poor drainage and nuisance flooding. Low prob of more significant urban/small stream flooding if higher rainfall amounts can be realized.

* Rain gradually tapering off on Thu from north to south as low pressure meanders further to the south/southeast.

Caught under cyclonic flow through this timeframe. A baggy trough is situated over the Mid Atlantic late this afternoon. The trough will lift toward southern New England tonight and cut off just south of southern New England into early Thu. The cutoff will gradually rotate south/southeastward later on Thu as a ridge builds into the eastern Great Lakes/Mid Atlantic. A frontal boundary is parked nearby our region while low pressure meanders off the Mid Atlantic coast. The low will gradually lift toward Long Island tonight before sliding further offshore on Thu.

Guidance continues to handle the immediate near term quite poorly, so confidence in the near term a bit lower than would like. Biggest change to the forecast was to significantly increase QPF amounts and have also increased PoPs. Main concern is the potential for poor drainage/nuisance flooding across CT/RI and perhaps into SE MA late tonight into early Thu. Though if higher rainfall totals are realized than currently forecast and shown by CAMs then we could have a more significant Urban/Small Stream flooding event occur.

Overall there aren't any big glaring signals in the PWATs with both the NAEFS/EPS guidance only 1.5-2 STD above model climo per the situational awareness table. This translates to roughly 1-1.5 inch PWATs, which is elevated but not overly impressive for this time of year. Despite this our 925 hPa jet is anticipated to increase to roughly 25-50 kt E to SE oriented LLJ. The GEFS is indicating a roughly 3-4 STD E/W component of the wind, which impinges on the south coast late tonight into early Thu. Will have this on top of a relatively stagnant synoptic setup as a cutoff low at 700 hPa developing just to our south tonight. During the winter time these situations result in "mid level magic", which generates a heavier band of precipitation. This time of year it can occur as well, but the big question is the baroclinicity and where exactly does this heavy band set up? At this point signs point to CT/ RI and perhaps into southeastern MA per ensemble guidance. The HRRR, NCAR MPAS and C-SHiELD all show low to high probs (10-70+ percent) of total QPF AOA 1 inch from roughly the MA Turnpike south with the highest probs across the immediate south coast of RI/CT. These pieces of guidance even are showing low to mod (10-50+ percent) of total QPF AOA 2 inches, again with the best shots across southern RI/CT. This even matches up with the EPS and to some extent the GEFS/GEPS guidance though the probs are much more muted. Based on these signals blended the NERFC forecast with the latest NAM guidance, but if the LPMM per the HRRR is correct then these totals may need to be increased further. For now am advertising 1-3 inches of rain across CT/RI with the highest amounts across southern RI. Elsewhere anywhere from roughly 0.25 to 1 inch is possible when precip is all said and done.

The big question will also be the convective influences. There isn't a whole lot of instability, but given the LLJ and forcing could see some embedded thunder within the rain shield. Could also have some efficient rain with warm cloud layer depths of 2.5-3.5 km. These factors would increase the heavy rain and flood threat. Despite these factors am not confident in the exact location and the heaviest rains could be quite localized, so have held off on a Flood Watch in the latest update. Though we will need to closely monitor things tonight into early Thu.

Should see the precipitation gradually tapering off during the afternoon as the low pulls away. So those precip chances will diminish from north to south, but it may not be until Thu evening where areas south of the MA Pike become dry. Given the stronger E/ENE LLJ in the latest update have increased wind speeds/gusts, so will be a bit breezy on Thu and feel quite cool given the onshore flow.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT/

Highlights

* Any lingering rain showers across the south coast push offshore.
Cloud cover gradually decreasing with easing winds.

Ridge axis over the eastern Great Lakes/Mid Atlantic begins to build into western New England by early Fri. Caught between high pressure gradually building in from Upstate NY/northern New England and low pressure meandering SE of our region.

Low pressure continues to move further offshore, which will allow the high to gradually build in. This is anticipated to bring an end to the shower activity across the south coast Thu evening. Should see the cloud cover gradually diminishing, but there is some uncertainty here. Onshore flow could bring in a marine stratus layer, especially across eastern areas into early Fri. For now have kept the forecast more optimistic, but may need to be fine tuned in future updates especially if the high is weaker than currently forecast and isn't able to pump in the drier low level air.

Will still be a bit breezy during the evening, but should see those wind speeds/gusts diminishing as high pressure relaxes the pressure gradient.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Key Points...

* Dry weather dominates Fri/Sat/Sun with perhaps a spot shower or two * Highs Fri/Sat/Sun...55-65 immediate coast & 65-75 further inland * Warmer the first half of next week with mainly dry weather

Details...

Fri/Sat/Sun...

High pressure over the Canadian Maritimes will nose southwestward into our region Fri into the weekend. This will combined with a low pressure system well to our south to generate onshore flow. This should hold high temperatures mainly between 55 and 65 along much of the immediate coast Fri and into the weekend. Temperatures inland are more tricky and will be dependent on the amount of solar insolation. There will be clouds at times with the onshore flow...but also may see drier air circulating around the high pressure system in the Maritimes
So away from the coast
current thinking is highs will run between 65 and 75 and whether we end up on the lower/higher side of those numbers will be dependent on the amount of sunshine received.

There is not much synoptic scale forcing or deep moisture around to support much precipitation Fri into the weekend. Perhaps just a spot shower or two...but dry weather should dominate.

Mon/Tue/Wed...

It looks like the first half of next week should feature warmer temperatures as some upper level ridging builds into the region. The magnitude of the warmth remains uncertain as some shortwave energy will be moving across the mid-Atlantic states which may act to temper it
Nonetheless
temperatures probably average above normal with highs in the 70s to perhaps near 80 at times at least away from the immediate coast and any marine influences. Thinking dry weather continues to dominate given upper level ridging and lack of synoptic scale forcing.

AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Forecast Confidence Levels:

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Through 00Z...Moderate confidence.

Borderline VFR/MVFR across central/eastern MA with scattered rain showers. MVFR across elsewhere with rain showers. More steady rains pushing northward already into the south coast and will continue to do so as we head into the evening. Showers have had strong enough outflow to kick out the sea breeze, so anticipate S/SE winds at 5-10 kts. If a stronger shower slides through then could see some isolated gusts of 15-25 kts given the well mixed boundary layer.

Tonight...Moderate confidence.

Conditions deteriorate to MVFR/IFR and perhaps even some localized LIFR possible after 06Z as steadier rains push in.
Could see some embedded thunder as we head into the AM push for portions of the south coast, but given the limited instability the risk was too low to include in the latest update. Heavier rains possible across CT, RI and perhaps into SE MA. Winds shift to the E and increase to around 10-15 kts. Will have some 20-25 kt gusts along the immediate south coast late.

Thursday...Moderate confidence.

Expecting to start the day with MVFR to IFR conditions and perhaps some localized LIFR with a steady rain. Should see this precip shield gradually collapsing as the day progresses, but still could have some spotty showers linger into the afternoon.
Ceilings will gradually improve to MVFR/VFR by the afternoon from north to south, but it will be a slow process given the prolonged onshore E to ENE winds. Will have speeds of 10-15 kts with gusts of 20-25 kts and the highest speeds along the immediate south coast.

Thursday Night...Moderate confidence.

Should see conditions improve to VFR for most. Any lingering showers across the south coast should push offshore before midnight. Given the prolonged onshore flow there is potential that eastern MA could see some MVFR/IFR stratus/fog. For now have kept in VFR range, but something we will need to hone in on as we get closer as it would likely impact the Fri AM push.
Winds ENE to NE at 5-10 kts.

KBOS TAF...Moderate confidence in TAF.

VFR this afternoon with hit/miss showers becoming a more steady rain this evening. Any of these showers could briefly bring moderate rain and visibilities down to 2-3 SM. Conditions lowering to MVFR/IFR tonight as steadier rains move in and will impact the Thu AM push. Winds shift to the E/ENE tonight. Winds remaining out of the ENE on Thu with rain showers gradually tapering off and ceilings slowly improving to MVFR/VFR.

KBDL TAF...Moderate confidence in TAF.

MVFR through the forecast with steadier rains pushing in this evening. Will have ceilings gradually lowering to IFR tonight and winds shift from the SE to the E/ENE. Winds becoming gusty Thu morning through the afternoon, but showers gradually tapering off and slowly improving from IFR to MVFR/VFR.

Outlook /Friday through Monday/...

Friday: VFR. Breezy.

Friday Night through Saturday: VFR.

Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Slight chance SHRA.

Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy. Slight chance SHRA.

Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Breezy.
Slight chance SHRA.

Monday: VFR.

MARINE

Forecaster Confidence Levels:

Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Have expanded the SCA to include Buzzards Bay and Vineyard Sound due to the strong E/ENE winds/gusts.

Tonight...High confidence.

Increasing E/ENE winds 15-25 kt toward Thu morning. Winds gusting 15-30 kts with the highest gusts across the southern waters. Could even have some brief gale force gusts across the southern outer waters into Thu AM. Could also see some embedded thunderstorms across the southern waters. Vsby lowers to 1-3 miles in areas of fog and rain, especially southern MA and RI waters.

Thursday...High confidence.

E/ENE winds 15-25 kts, gusts 20-30 kts possible. Areas of rough seas with rain. Could still see some embedded thunderstorms across the southern waters through the first half of the day.
Rain tapering off from north to south across the eastern waters during the afternoon.

Thursday Night...High confidence.

Rain tapering off across the southern waters north to south as the night progresses. Winds ENE to NE at 10-20 kts with gusts 15-20 kts gradually easing as the night progresses.

Outlook /Friday through Monday/...

Friday through Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft.

Saturday Night through Sunday Night: Winds less than 25 kt.
Seas up to 5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers.

Monday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft.

BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM to 8 PM EDT Thursday for ANZ232>234.
Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM to 11 PM EDT Thursday for ANZ235-237-254.
Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 11 PM EDT Thursday for ANZ255-256.




Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesinHgDewPt
NTKM3 - 8449130 - Nantucket Island, MA 2 mi64 min SE 5.1G8 59°F 58°F29.86
44020 - NANTUCKET SOUND 20 mi24 min E 7.8G9.7 55°F 55°F29.8354°F
CHTM3 29 mi64 min 55°F 58°F29.88
BZBM3 - 8447930 - Woods Hole, MA 37 mi64 min 57°F 56°F29.86
44090 42 mi34 min 56°F 54°F


Wind History for Nantucket Island, MA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherTempDewPtRHinHg
KACK NANTUCKET MEMORIAL,MA 1 sm41 minE 0910 smOvercast Lt Rain 55°F54°F94%29.85
Link to 5 minute data for KACK


Wind History from ACK
(wind in knots)
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Tide / Current for Nantucket, Nantucket Island, Nantucket Island, Massachusetts
   
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Nantucket, Nantucket Island, Nantucket Island, Massachusetts, Tide feet


Tide / Current for Nantucket Harbor Entrance Channel, Massachusetts Current
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Nantucket Harbor Entrance Channel
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Wed -- 12:39 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 01:56 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 02:15 AM EDT     0.69 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 05:04 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 05:21 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:49 AM EDT     First Quarter
Wed -- 10:41 AM EDT     -1.27 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 12:10 PM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 12:54 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 02:44 PM EDT     0.90 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 07:52 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 08:01 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 11:14 PM EDT     -1.36 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Nantucket Harbor Entrance Channel, Massachusetts Current, knots
12
am
-0.5
1
am
0.3
2
am
0.7
3
am
0.6
4
am
0.2
5
am
0
6
am
-0
7
am
-0.1
8
am
-0.3
9
am
-0.7
10
am
-1.2
11
am
-1.2
12
pm
-0.8
1
pm
0.1
2
pm
0.7
3
pm
0.9
4
pm
0.6
5
pm
0.3
6
pm
0.2
7
pm
0.2
8
pm
0
9
pm
-0.4
10
pm
-1
11
pm
-1.3


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GEOS Local Image of north east   
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Boston, MA,




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