Sunday, August20, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Fenwick, CT

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:04AMSunset 7:42PM Sunday August 20, 2017 8:54 PM EDT (00:54 UTC) Moonrise 4:37AMMoonset 7:04PM Illumination 2% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 28 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ330 Long Island Sound East Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 611 Pm Edt Sun Aug 20 2017
Tonight..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Mon..W winds around 5 kt, becoming sw in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less.
Mon night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Tue..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming S 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less, then 1 to 2 ft in the afternoon.
Tue night..SW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Chance of showers and tstms.
Wed..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Chance of showers and tstms.
Wed night..W winds around 10 kt, becoming N with gusts up to 20 kt after midnight. Seas around 1 ft.
Thu..NW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming W in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less.
Thu night..W winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming N after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less.
Fri..NE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming se in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less.
Fri night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming ne after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
ANZ300 611 Pm Edt Sun Aug 20 2017
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. High pressure building into the region through Monday morning will settle to the south and east Monday afternoon, allowing a weak warm front to approach Monday night, and pass through by early Tuesday. A cold front will pass through on Wednesday, followed by high pressure later this week.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Fenwick , CT
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location: 41.27, -72.36     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 202320
afdokx
area forecast discussion
national weather service new york ny
720 pm edt Sun aug 20 2017

Synopsis
High pressure building into the region through Monday morning
will settle to the south and east Monday afternoon, allowing a
weak warm front to approach Monday night. After a hot and humid
Tuesday, a cold frontal passage on Wednesday will produce a
drastic cool down for the end of the week.

Near term until 6 am Monday morning
The fcst is on track with no major changes made. CU continue to
slowly thin out, with a mostly clear night coming up. This
along with diminishing winds should allow temps to trop to the
50s and 60s in most areas, with only nyc remaining above 70
overnight.

Short term 6 am Monday morning through Monday night
Sky cover could be tricky in spots for the partial solar
eclipse, which should run from about 120 pm to 400 pm in nyc
and peak at 244 pm. Do expect some sct high clouds and also some
sct cu, possibly a narrow band of broken CU with the sea breeze
closer to the north shore of long island and in southern ct.

South facing coastlines may be better viewing locations as any
lower clouds that form inland with the sea breeze.

Temps should rise quickly into early afternoon, and per 15z run
of the hrrrx which has been modified to incorporate impact on
incoming solar radiation due to the eclipse, may actually drop a
couple of degrees between 2-4 pm, then rebound. Overall temps
should still reach the mid upper 80s, possibly 90 in parts of
urban NE nj.

The approaching warm front could spark an isolated shower or
tstm toward sunset well west of nyc, with slight chances
overspreading nearly all the area later Mon night. Lows should
be in the upper 60s lower 70s, and it will become muggy as
dewpoints also increase into that range.

There is a moderate risk of rip currents at atlantic beaches on
Monday.

Long term Tuesday through Sunday
A cold front will reach the area on Wednesday per the 12z suite of
model guidance, which was in good agreement. This means that Tue is
setting up to be hot and humid. Winds progged around 200 degrees
will pump lots of humidity into the area, and across the ERN half of
the CWA keep actual temps slightly suppressed despite h85
warming towards 20c. The humidity will compensate for any lack
of heat, with just about all areas likely AOA 90 for a heat
index. Across the normally hottest areas like nj zones, the
heat index ATTM looks to reach about 100. There could be a few
aftn and eve tstms, particularly N and W of nyc, but there will
at least be an increase in dense cirrus from upstream
convective debris. As a result the fcst GOES mostly cloudy by
tue eve. Shwrs and tstms ahead of the front Tue ngt and wed,
then the area dries out for the remainder of the fcst period.

The cold front will be driven by a 100-kt h3 jet, so tstms will
be easier to sustain or initiate at ngt. If the timing ends up
slightly slower, a svr outbreak is possible on Wed as CAPE could
soar to 3000 j kg or more. Even with the progged faster timing
however, there could still be svr at any time ahead of the front
with the jet acting on MUCAPE around 1500-2000 j kg. Much cooler
weather will then settle in for thu-sun, with temps averaging
blw climo.

Aviation 00z Monday through Friday
Vfr through the TAF period as high pressure remains in control
through Monday.

Nw winds will diminish this evening to around 5 kt at city
terminals and become light and variable elsewhere. There is a
chance the direction could back to the SW at city terminals
overnight, but speeds should remain 5 kt or less.

Winds will increase late Monday morning into the afternoon out
of the sw-sw and back towards the south at coastal terminals.

Sea breeze enhancement may allow for gusts in the upper teens at
kjfk and kisp in the afternoon.

Outlook for 00z Tuesday through Friday
Monday night MainlyVFR, with low chance MVFR or lower at
mainly long island terminals.

Tuesday-Wednesday A chance of showers and thunderstorms with
brief periods of MVFR or lower possible. SW winds g15-20kt
Tuesday afternoon.

Wednesday night-Friday Vfr.

Marine
Winds and seas will ramp up on tue, with SCA conditions
developing on all waters. Winds will decrease after a cold
frontal passage, bringing winds the protected waters blw sca
lvls by Wed eve. On the ocean, seas should linger around 5 ft
into Wed ngt. Winds and seas are then progged to remain, in the
absence of any increased swell, blw SCA lvls thru the weekend.

Hydrology
No widespread hydrologic impacts foreseen attm.

Okx watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ny... None.

Nj... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Jmc goodman
near term... Jmc goodman
short term... Goodman
long term... Jmc
aviation... Ds
marine... Jmc goodman
hydrology... Jmc goodman


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NLNC3 - 8461490 - New London, CT 16 mi55 min NW 2.9 G 4.1 77°F 70°F1017.9 hPa (+1.6)
MTKN6 - 8510560 - Montauk, NY 26 mi55 min 74°F 73°F1018.5 hPa (+1.4)
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 29 mi55 min WNW 5.1 G 6 78°F 78°F1018.9 hPa (+1.6)
44017 - 23 Nautical Miles Southwest of Montauk Point, NY 43 mi125 min 74°F 73°F3 ft1017.9 hPa (+0.6)69°F
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 44 mi55 min NNW 2.9 G 4.1 78°F 75°F1018.2 hPa (+1.3)

Wind History for New London, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Chester, Chester Airport, CT11 mi60 minN 010.00 miFair73°F59°F61%1019 hPa
Groton / New London, Groton / New London Airport, CT17 mi59 minW 510.00 miFair76°F59°F56%1017.8 hPa

Wind History from SNC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW5SW54SW3SW333CalmNW3NW6NW7NW8NW11
G18
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1 day agoS5S65SW7SW4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalm5NW4N4CalmCalmCalmSW8
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2 days ago------------------------------------S6
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Tide / Current Tables for Old Saybrook Point, Connecticut
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Old Saybrook Point
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Sun -- 04:08 AM EDT     -0.27 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 04:37 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 06:03 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 10:16 AM EDT     3.63 feet High Tide
Sun -- 04:17 PM EDT     -0.10 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 07:03 PM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 07:40 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 10:35 PM EDT     4.19 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
2.91.90.80.1-0.3-0.10.61.52.53.23.63.52.921.10.3-0.100.61.62.63.54.14.1

Tide / Current Tables for The Race, Long Island Sound, New York Current
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The Race
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Sun -- 01:34 AM EDT     -3.88 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 04:36 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 04:54 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 06:02 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 07:46 AM EDT     3.29 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 11:02 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 01:58 PM EDT     -3.56 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 05:09 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 07:02 PM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 07:39 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 08:05 PM EDT     3.48 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 11:21 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-2.7-3.7-3.8-3-1.60.21.933.32.81.70.1-1.7-3.1-3.6-3.1-1.9-0.31.52.93.53.22.20.7

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (20,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.