Saturday, May27, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Fenwick, CT

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:19AMSunset 8:15PM Saturday May 27, 2017 11:51 AM EDT (15:51 UTC) Moonrise 7:18AMMoonset 10:16PM Illumination 5% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 2 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ330 Long Island Sound East Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 1016 Am Edt Sat May 27 2017
Today..NW winds around 5 kt...becoming sw around 5 kt early this afternoon...then becoming S late. Seas 1 ft or less.
Tonight..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Patchy drizzle after midnight.
Sun..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Patchy drizzle in the morning.
Sun night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Mon..SE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 1 to 2 ft. Showers likely. Chance of tstms in the afternoon.
Mon night..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers in the evening.
Tue..E winds around 5 kt...becoming sw. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers at night.
Wed..SW winds around 5 kt...becoming w. Seas 1 ft or less. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
ANZ300 1016 Am Edt Sat May 27 2017
Synopsis for long island waters and new york harbor.. Multiple weak waves of low pressure will pass to the south through Monday...as high pressure gradually builds down from southeastern canada. This high will retreat to the northeast Monday night...followed by a series of weak fronts moving across from Tuesday through Wednesday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Fenwick , CT
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location: 41.27, -72.36     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 271501
afdokx
area forecast discussion
national weather service new york ny
1101 am edt Sat may 27 2017

Synopsis
Multiple weak waves of low pressure pass to the south through
Monday, as high pressure gradually builds down from southeastern
canada. This high retreats to the northeast Monday night. A
series of weak fronts or troughs of low pressure cross the area
Tuesday through Thursday. Weak high pressure then builds in
through Friday, as a front stalls to the south of long island.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
A dissipated convective complex and associated shortwave will
pass just to the SW S of the area this afternoon (consistent
with trajectory of mean 850-500 hpa flow). An isolated shower
possible across nyc metro and point N & W due to combined
shortwave forcing and weak instability. Additionally this
should result in sct-bkn CU this afternoon.

Highs today will be near normal... Generally upper 60s lower 70s
south coasts with afternoon sea breeze knocking temps back into
the 60s. Across nyc nj metro and interior lower to mid 70s.

There is a moderate risk of rip currents at the ocean beaches
today due to residual 3 ft southerly swells.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 pm Sunday
Northern stream 850-500 hpa ridging builds in tonight, as
onshore flow sets up below 900 hpa. Could end up seeing some
patchy drizzle late tonight into early Sunday morning as a
result. Lows tonight should be a few degrees above normal.

The aforementioned ridge axis transits over the area Sunday,
with moisture trapped under the subsidence inversion making for
a mostly cloudy day. Given expected cloud cover and onshore
flow, did cut back on highs to around 5-10 degrees below normal.

This was based on blending NAM ecwmf 2-meter temperatures in
with met ecs guidance and a mix down from 975-925 hpa per bufkit
soundings.

Long term Sunday night through Friday
The northern stream ridge slides offshore Sunday night, allowing
for light rain to overspread most of the area with some modest
isentropic ascent (could remain dry over far eastern portions).

A northern stream shortwave rotates across the area around the
base of a closed low over ontario northern great lakes Monday.

Even with onshore flow, showalter indices are progged down to -2
to -4 by afternoon in response to fairly steep mid-upper level
lapse rates, have opted for showers, with a chance of
thunderstorms by afternoon. Given showalter indices cannot rule
out some locally strong storms and cannot 100% rule out a
severe cell or two. The main threat would be large hail - with
wet bulb zero heights progged at 8-9 thousand feet late Monday
afternoon early Monday evening. The marine inversion likely will
prevent any gusts to severe levels.

The showers with embedded thunderstorms should come to an end
from SW to NE Monday night as the shortwave trough exits to the
ne.

The closed upper low and longwave trough will be slow to move
east through the middle to late part of next week as a series
of shortwaves rotate through the trough, while at the surface
weak lows, or troughs move through the area. There remains a lot
of uncertainty with the timing and placement of the systems
through the upcoming week. As a result, there could be a
prolonged period of unsettled weather. Will carry slight chance
to low chance probabilities through Thursday, highest over
northern zones, closest to the closed low any shortwaves
rotating around it. For now have gone with a dry forecast
Thursday night and Friday as the main axis of the opening
closed low is progged to lift to the northeast.

Aviation 15z Saturday through Wednesday
Weak high pressure remains over the terminals today.

Vfr. Light NW to W winds give way to sea breezes with winds
shifting S to SE at 10 kt or less.

Outlook for 12z Sunday through Wednesday
Sunday MVFR and any local ifr CIGS gradually improving toVFR
by afternoon.

Sunday night Vfr, but with chance of light rain late.

Monday MVFR conds likely and ifr conds possible. Showers
likely and chance of tstms.

Monday night Conds improving toVFR by late evening.

Tuesday-Wednesday MainlyVFR. Chance of showers tstms mainly
nw of the nyc metro terminals.

Marine
Quiet through Sunday night as ocean swells subside and winds
remain light. SE winds increasing to 15-20 kt on Mon could
lead to ocean seas reaching 5 ft again Mon afternoon evening.

Otherwise, outside of any tstms on Monday, winds seas on the
waters should remain tranquil.

Hydrology
No significant widespread hydrologic impacts are expected
through at least the middle of next week.

Tides coastal flooding
The combination of high astronomical tides and southerly swell
will keep water levels within striking distance of minor coastal
flood benchmarks for several high tide cycles into early next
week. A coastal flood advisory is in effect for the high tide
cycle tonight for the south shore bays of brooklyn queens nassau,
also for the shores of westchester fairfield along western long
island sound.

Okx watches warnings advisories
Ct... Coastal flood advisory from midnight tonight to 3 am edt
Sunday for ctz009.

Ny... Coastal flood advisory from midnight tonight to 3 am edt
Sunday for nyz071.

Coastal flood advisory from 9 pm this evening to 2 am edt
Sunday for nyz075-178-179.

Nj... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Maloit
near term... Maloit nv
short term... Maloit
long term... Maloit met
aviation... Goodman jc
marine... Goodman met
hydrology... Maloit met
tides coastal flooding...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
LDLC3 - New London Ledge CT - Ledge Light Weather 15 mi37 min N 9.9 G 12 60°F 1011.1 hPa48°F
NLNC3 - 8461490 - New London, CT 16 mi52 min N 2.9 G 6 60°F 54°F1011.5 hPa (+0.6)
MTKN6 - 8510560 - Montauk, NY 26 mi52 min 57°F 55°F1011.9 hPa (+0.6)
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 29 mi52 min N 7 G 9.9 64°F 59°F1011.6 hPa (+0.0)
44017 - 23 Nautical Miles Southwest of Montauk Point, NY 43 mi62 min 57°F 55°F4 ft1011.8 hPa (+0.5)53°F
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 44 mi52 min S 7 G 9.9 62°F 1010.9 hPa (+0.0)

Wind History for New London, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Chester, Chester Airport, CT11 mi57 minNNW 910.00 miOvercast63°F48°F60%1011.8 hPa
Groton / New London, Groton / New London Airport, CT17 mi56 minN 1010.00 miOvercast61°F48°F65%1011.5 hPa

Wind History from SNC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr45NW5
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3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW5
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NW5NW6NW5CalmCalmNW6NW4NW5Calm3N7NW8N6
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1 day agoE11
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S10S7SE4SE3SE5SE3CalmCalmCalm5CalmE5E7NE66NE7E7
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Tide / Current Tables for Old Saybrook Point, Connecticut
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Old Saybrook Point
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Sat -- 12:12 AM EDT     4.49 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:21 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 06:41 AM EDT     -0.55 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:18 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 12:49 PM EDT     3.59 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:45 PM EDT     -0.14 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 08:12 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 10:16 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
4.54.33.62.51.30.2-0.4-0.5-0.10.81.82.83.43.63.22.51.50.60-0.10.31.12.23.2

Tide / Current Tables for The Race, Long Island Sound, New York Current
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The Race
Click for Map
Sat -- 12:54 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 04:06 AM EDT     -4.41 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 05:20 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:17 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 07:24 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 10:14 AM EDT     3.69 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 01:32 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 04:30 PM EDT     -3.74 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 07:34 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 08:11 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 10:14 PM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 10:31 PM EDT     3.74 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.6-0.2-2.1-3.7-4.4-4-2.6-0.81.22.93.73.42.41-0.8-2.6-3.6-3.6-2.6-10.82.53.63.6

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (11,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.