Sunday, September23, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Fenwick, CT

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
9/17/2018 XTide broke when 1and1 "upgraded" my server. It has been esculated. I am sorry for the problem.

Sunrise 6:38AMSunset 6:46PM Sunday September 23, 2018 4:39 PM EDT (20:39 UTC) Moonrise 6:27PMMoonset 4:55AM Illumination 99% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 14 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ330 Long Island Sound East Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 311 Pm Edt Sun Sep 23 2018
.small craft advisory in effect from Monday morning through late Monday night...
Tonight..S winds around 5 kt, becoming ne with gusts up to 20 kt late this evening and overnight. Seas 1 ft or less.
Mon..E winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Mon night..E winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Chance of rain in the evening, then rain likely after midnight.
Tue..SE winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Showers. Vsby 1 to 3 nm in the afternoon.
Tue night..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 2 ft in the evening, then 1 ft or less. Showers likely. Patchy fog after midnight. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Wed..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 1 ft or less, then around 2 ft in the afternoon. Chance of showers.
Wed night..SW winds around 10 kt, becoming nw after midnight. Seas around 2 ft. Chance of showers. Vsby 1 to 3 nm in the evening.
Thu..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Thu night..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Patchy fog. Chance of showers after midnight. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Fri..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers.
Fri night..W winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming nw after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less.
ANZ300 311 Pm Edt Sun Sep 23 2018
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. High pressure gradually builds in from the great lakes, then slides offshore Monday. A warm front slowly moves northward through the area Tuesday into Tuesday night, followed by a cold frontal passage Wednesday night. High pressure then builds to the north through late week, while a series of weak lows move along a stalled frontal boundary to the south of the area.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Fenwick , CT
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location: 41.27, -72.36     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 231930
afdokx
area forecast discussion
national weather service new york ny
330 pm edt Sun sep 23 2018

Synopsis
High pressure building across quebec on Monday will reach the
maritimes Monday night, allowing a warm front to approach the tri-
state region from the south. The warm front slowly moves
northward through the area Tuesday into Tuesday night,
followed by a cold frontal passage Wednesday night. High
pressure then builds to the north through late week, while a
series of weak lows move along a stalled frontal boundary to the
south of the area. A stronger area of high pressure builds from
the west through the weekend.

Near term until 6 am Monday morning
Mid lvl front remains just S of the cwa, with light rain and
sprinkles confined to the ocean S of LI as a result. This frontal
zone will be suppressed swd tngt as the pres rises across the area.

Stlt shows extensive cloud cover to the oh valley. Only gradual
erosion from the N is expected. This presents a temp fcst problem
for tngt, as much of the modeling is showing mainly clr skies late
tngt. Based on the current stlt pics and trends, it seems this may
be too quick. Nevertheless, clearing could still take place within
an hour or two of sunset, allowing for a quick but significant drop
in temps. Because of this, the coldest blend of MOS has not been
used, but the warmest nbm and raw consensus was not used either. The
superblend was in the middle, and was used for the fcst.

There is a low rip current risk thru this eve.

Short term 6 am Monday morning through Monday night
A strong high approaching 1040 will be INVOF quebec city Mon mrng.

The influence of the high will keep the CWA dry for most if not all
of the day. A second shot of thick cirrus, as well as some low
clouds advecting in on increasing ely flow, should produce a mostly
cloudy late mrng and aftn. Mid lvl moisture transport increases mon
ngt, with a theta-e ridge building in rapidly. This will result in
rain developing and spreading nwd across the CWA late Mon and mon
ngt.

The pres gradient will be increasing due to the strong high to the n
and the approaching warm front to the s. Winds will respond, with
increasing flow thru the day and ngt. Gusts to 30 mph can be
expected, particularly along the coasts, from late in the day thru
the overnight.

A blend of the guidance was used for temps.

There is a high rip current risk on mon.

Long term Tuesday through Sunday
The main concern for the extended will be the potential for heavy
rainfall, especially Tuesday with the warm frontal passage as
instability begins to increase, aiding in the potential for
convective downpours. With antecedent high pressure centered
offshore, there will be a prolonged period for moisture advection,
both from atlantic and gulf regions as wind profiles veer with
height. Pwat values will quickly increase with the warm frontal
passage to around 1.75-2.00 inch, which per SPC sounding climatology
is close to maximum values for time of year. The best chance for any
heavy rainfall will be with and following the warm frontal passage,
particularly as instability increases across the area. Additionally,
despite warm temperatures aloft, there will be instability
concentrated below roughly 500 mb, and with strong veering winds
with height as the front moves through (0-3km SRH around 200-350
m2 s2), there will be potential for brief low topped supercells
capable of damaging winds.

Rainfall may become more periodic into Tuesday night and Wednesday
in the warm sector as broad height falls and cooling temperatures
aloft increase deep layer instability across the area. At the
moment, SPC has much of our forecast area in a 15% outlook for
severe wind potential due to the low CAPE but high shear
environment. The greatest potential for any severe weather and, once
again heavy rainfall will be Wednesday night as a short wave and
attendant cold front move through. However, broad southwest flow
aloft will remain as a western atlantic high begins to retrograde,
and a phased upper low lingers across central canada into the great
lakes. As a result, the forward progression of the cold front will
significantly slow, with the front expected to stall across the
south and potential for us to remain in a humid and somewhat
unsettled period into at least Thursday.

By late week, flow aloft becomes more northwesterly, with increasing
confluence allowing a surface high to strengthen and build into the
area for the weekend, with a return to a cooler and much drier fall-
like air mass.

High temperatures in general will be within a few degrees of
climatological normals with the exception of Wednesday as we remain
in the warm sector following the warm frontal passage. Low
temperatures initially will be 10 to 15 degrees above normal, before
returning to within around 5 degrees above normal for late week with
the passage of the cold front.

Aviation 20z Sunday through Friday
A frontal boundary will remain near stationary across the mid
atlantic states through Monday, while canadian high pressure
gradually build into new england. A frontal system will approach
Monday night.

Main light rain shield will continue to be suppressed south of
nyc long island the next 24 hours, but a weak convergence zone
along the south shore of LI will bring some MVFR conds (low prob
of ifr) in light rain mist to jfk into early evening push. This
could perhaps spread to kewr klga.

Otherwise... MVFR CIGS across nyc nj metro and LI terminals expected
into evening push, while northern terminals vary between sct-bkn.

Moderate confidence in cig forecast through evening push.VFR cigs
expected tonight, with redevelopment of MVFR CIGS likely late sun
morning into Sunday afternoon.

E NE winds below 10 kt, strengthening to 10 to 15 kt during
morning push. E NE winds of 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt
likely developing Monday morning for coastal terminals.

Outlook for 18z Monday through Friday
Monday afternoon Pockets of MVFR likely. E wind gusts of
25-30kt

Monday night-Tuesday Periods of rain showers with ifr or
lower. E wind gusts of 25-30 kt, becoming SE tue.

Tuesday night-Wednesday Showers and isolated tstms possible
with MVFR or lower at times. Southerly winds.

Thursday MainlyVFR.

Friday MVFR with rain possible.

Marine
Winds and seas will remain blw SCA lvls tngt, then increase to solid
sca lvls Mon and Mon ngt. Winds remain strong from the east
then southeast as a warm front passes through the waters on
Tuesday. At least SCA conditions will exist on all waters, with
the potential for gale-force gusts on the ocean waters early in
the day. Winds gradually decrease into Wednesday, though a few
gusts to near sca-levels will remain possible before the cold
frontal passage Wednesday night. Even though winds decrease
further into Thursday, ocean seas will remain elevated before
gradually falling below SCA levels Thursday night into Friday as
the pressure gradient relaxes.

Hydrology
No hydrologic impacts are expected thru mon. A frontal system
will bring locally heavy rainfall and the potential for
localized flooding Monday night into Wednesday night. At the
moment, the greatest potential for any impacts is expected to be
Tuesday with the warm frontal passage. Storm total
accumulations are expected to range from around an inch to three
inches over the course of three days.

Tides coastal flooding
Minor coastal flooding possible during the times of high tide
Monday night and Tuesday morning in response to a strengthening
easterly flow ahead of an approaching low pressure system.

Surges of around 1 1 2 to 1 3 4 ft, and locally up to 2 1 4 ft,
are needed for minor flooding.

Equipment
Nyc NOAA weather radio station kwo-35 (162.55 mhz) remains off
the air for an extended period of time.

Okx watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ny... None.

Nj... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory from 6 am Monday to 6 am edt Tuesday for
anz330-335-338-340-345-350-353-355.

Synopsis... Jmc md
near term... Jmc
short term... Jmc
long term... Md
aviation... Nv
marine... Jmc md
hydrology... Jmc md
tides coastal flooding...

equipment...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
LDLC3 - New London Ledge CT - Ledge Light Weather 15 mi45 min Calm G 1 65°F 1024.8 hPa52°F
NLNC3 - 8461490 - New London, CT 16 mi40 min 65°F 70°F1023.3 hPa (-1.0)
44039 - Central Long Island Sound 18 mi55 min NE 3.9 G 5.8 64°F 72°F
MTKN6 - 8510560 - Montauk, NY 26 mi40 min 64°F 70°F1023.2 hPa (-0.9)
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 29 mi40 min 65°F 75°F1023.8 hPa (-0.9)
44017 - 23 Nautical Miles Southwest of Montauk Point, NY 43 mi50 min Calm G 3.9 64°F 68°F3 ft1023.8 hPa (-0.6)55°F
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 44 mi40 min 64°F 73°F1023.1 hPa (-0.8)

Wind History for New London, CT
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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N5
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G12
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G15
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G15

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Chester, Chester Airport, CT11 mi45 minN 010.00 miOvercast64°F48°F56%1024 hPa
Groton / New London, Groton / New London Airport, CT17 mi44 minN 010.00 miFair64°F53°F68%1023.5 hPa

Wind History from SNC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE3CalmCalmNW3NW5CalmN4CalmN3CalmN4N4N3CalmN4N4N4N5N4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
1 day agoS9S6
G13
S11S10SW10
G17
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2 days agoS4SE4SE4SE33CalmE4CalmCalmCalm--CalmSE3--SE4SE53S7
G12
--S11S10
G15
S8
G14
S11S8
G13

Tide / Current Tables for Old Saybrook Point, Connecticut
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for The Race, Long Island Sound, New York Current
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (16,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.