Monday, June18, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Fenwick, CT

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 5:15AMSunset 8:28PM Monday June 18, 2018 12:12 AM EDT (04:12 UTC) Moonrise 10:44AMMoonset 12:00AM Illumination 22% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ330 Long Island Sound East Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 1019 Pm Edt Sun Jun 17 2018
Overnight..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Mon..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less.
Mon night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tue..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms in the morning with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tue night..NE winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Wed..N winds around 5 kt, becoming sw in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less.
Wed night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming W after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less.
Thu..N winds around 5 kt, becoming S in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less.
Thu night..SE winds around 5 kt, becoming E after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less.
Fri..E winds around 5 kt, becoming se in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less.
Fri night..S winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming sw after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
ANZ300 1019 Pm Edt Sun Jun 17 2018
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. High pressure remains offshore in the atlantic through Monday. A cold front approaches from the north Monday night, then crosses the area early Tuesday. Weak high pressure builds in from the northwest thereafter into midweek. Outside of a reinforcing cold front Wednesday night, high pressure will remain across the region through Friday night.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Fenwick , CT
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location: 41.27, -72.36     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 180229
afdokx
area forecast discussion
national weather service new york ny
1029 pm edt Sun jun 17 2018

Synopsis
Offshore high pressure remains through Monday. A cold front will
approach from the north Monday and move across early Tuesday.

Weak high pressure builds in Tuesday afternoon into midweek.

Outside of a reinforcing cold front Wednesday night, high
pressure will remain across the region through Saturday. A
frontal system then approaches Saturday night into Sunday.

Near term until 6 am Monday morning
The forecast remains on track. Cirrus will continue to spill
over the large ridge centered across the southeast us through
the night.

High pressure will be offshore in the atlantic. There will be
s-sw flow, allowing for warmer and more humid conditions. Used a
combination of mav and ecs for the lows, ranging from near 70
in nyc to lower 60s in some parts of the interior, se
connecticut and eastern long island.

Short term 6 am Monday morning through Tuesday
The mid level and upper levels have nearly zonal flow that remains
but there will be some progression eastward as the base of the
ridge moves farther east in the southeast us. There will be a
mid and upper level trough making its way into quebec.

The mid and upper level trough moves across northern new england
Monday night into early Tuesday. The trough begins to lift
northeast of the region Tuesday afternoon.

At the surface, low pressure moves eastward just north of maine
Monday, moving into the canadian maritimes Monday night. This
will bring a cold front that will approach the region from the
north Monday night. The front moves across the region early
Tuesday. Weak high pressure builds in from the north behind the
front.

For Monday, hot and humid conditions with highest combination
across the lower hudson valley and northeast nj. Just high
enough temperatures and dewpoints across northeast nj and the
lower hudson valley to make for heat indices near 100.

Elsewhere, expecting heat indices in the mid to upper 90s for
nyc (mostly 95 to 97) and in the 90s for southern connecticut
and nassau into western suffolk. Lower heat indices are expected
farther east. Actual high temperatures are in the mid 90s across
parts of northeast nj and the lower hudson valley and with
moisture advection and pooling of dewpoints near the hudson
river, that is why the heat indices are a few degrees higher for
these locations. Actual highs for nyc are in the lower 90s with
dewpoints more in the upper 60s.

The highs forecast on Monday are a combination of the 00z ecs
and the previous forecast, going a little above the mav and met
guidance.

Rain returns to the forecast in the form of showers and
thunderstorms late Monday afternoon through Monday night. These
will taper off early Tuesday. These could produce locally heavy
rain and gusty winds, but the severe threat looks to be limited
to locations farther north of the region, where more wind shear
will exist with lower heights and closer to the base of the
upper level trough.

Went for warmer lows Monday night (mainly in the 70s) as
airmass remains very warm and humid with showers and
thunderstorms across parts of the region. Some model differences
on whether this moves across as a MCS or a weakened one. The
lows Monday night were from a combination of mav met ecs.

Expecting another warm but drier day Tuesday behind the front.

Went with warmer combination of mav ecs for highs, mid 80s to
near 90.

There is a moderate rip current risk for Monday.

Long term Tuesday night through Sunday
Models have continued to trend toward a drier forecast with
mainly seasonable temperatures. There had been concern with the
proximity of a frontal system stalling close enough to the area
for potential wet weather toward the end of the week. However,
a northern branch upper trough drops southeast across eastern
canada and into the northeast for the midweek period, lifting
out toward the end of the week into the weekend. A southern
branch shortwave trough approaches for the second half of next
weekend.

At the surface, high pressure prevails across the region through
much of the period, until a frontal system approaches Saturday
night into Sunday.

Aviation 03z Monday through Friday
High pressure to the south of long island tonight into Monday
morning will give way to an approaching cold front late Monday
and Monday evening.

MainlyVFR through the TAF period. There is a chance for MVFR
conditions in tsra Monday evening.

S-ssw winds will continue to diminish through the night. Sw
flow increases during Monday with sustained winds 10-15 kt and
gusts around 20 kt in the late morning and afternoon.

Outlook for 00z Tuesday through Friday
Monday night Chance of MVFR in showers and thunderstorms.

Tuesday MainlyVFR. Small chance of a shower or thunderstorms
in the morning.

Tuesday night-Friday Vfr.

Marine
Weak high pressure based offshore, will keep a weak pressure
gradient and conditions below SCA for tonight into early Monday.

Winds and seas increase ahead of a cold front Monday afternoon
into Monday night, but forecast has conditions staying mainly below
sca outside of some brief 25kt gusts on the ocean. The sub-sca
conditions remain on Tuesday.

High pressure prevails Wednesday through Friday with winds 10
kt or less and seas 2 ft or less.

Hydrology
Showers and thunderstorms late Monday through early Tuesday
could result in locally heavy rain. The precipitable water value
of the airmass is forecast to reach near 2 inches. Locally minor
flooding is possible.

Equipment
Nyc NOAA weather radio station kwo-35 (162.55 mhz) remains off
the air for an extended period of time.

Okx watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ny... Heat advisory from 11 am to 8 pm edt Monday for nyz067>071.

Nj... Heat advisory from 11 am to 8 pm edt Monday for njz002-004-006-
103>108.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Jm dw
near term... Jm ds
short term... Jm
long term... Dw
aviation... Ds
marine... Jm dw
hydrology... Jm dw
equipment...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NLNC3 - 8461490 - New London, CT 16 mi43 min SSW 1.9 G 5.1 66°F 60°F1018.1 hPa
44039 - Central Long Island Sound 18 mi133 min S 5.8 G 7.8 70°F
MTKN6 - 8510560 - Montauk, NY 26 mi43 min 65°F 64°F1018.5 hPa
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 29 mi43 min S 5.1 G 5.1 69°F 66°F1018.3 hPa
44017 - 23 Nautical Miles Southwest of Montauk Point, NY 43 mi83 min SSW 7.8 G 9.7 65°F 64°F1 ft1019 hPa (+0.0)64°F
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 44 mi49 min SSW 4.1 G 6 71°F 63°F1017.5 hPa

Wind History for New London, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Chester, Chester Airport, CT11 mi18 minSW 510.00 miFair68°F59°F73%1018.6 hPa
Groton / New London, Groton / New London Airport, CT17 mi17 minS 39.00 miFair62°F59°F90%1018 hPa

Wind History from SNC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW7SW7SW6W5CalmCalm--NW4N6N4N6NW73
G10
CalmSW8S7S7S5
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1 day agoCalmCalmW554W4W3NW5NW5
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2 days agoNW5NW10
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Tide / Current Tables for Old Saybrook Point, Connecticut
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Old Saybrook Point
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Mon -- 02:55 AM EDT     3.93 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:15 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:22 AM EDT     -0.28 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 10:44 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 03:42 PM EDT     3.59 feet High Tide
Mon -- 08:25 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 09:46 PM EDT     0.26 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
2.23.13.73.93.62.9210.2-0.2-0.20.31.22.12.93.53.63.22.51.70.90.40.30.6

Tide / Current Tables for The Race, Long Island Sound, New York Current
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The Race
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:21 AM EDT     3.22 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 03:37 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 05:14 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 06:46 AM EDT     -3.71 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 10:04 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 10:42 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 12:56 PM EDT     3.21 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 04:20 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 07:18 PM EDT     -3.28 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 08:23 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 10:31 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
3.232.21-0.6-2.3-3.4-3.7-3-1.7-0.11.52.83.22.81.90.5-1.1-2.5-3.2-3.1-2.1-0.80.7

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (0,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.