Thursday, October18, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Fenwick, CT

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:05AMSunset 6:05PM Thursday October 18, 2018 2:51 PM EDT (18:51 UTC) Moonrise 3:25PMMoonset 12:46AM Illumination 68% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 9 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ330 Long Island Sound East Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 105 Pm Edt Thu Oct 18 2018
.small craft advisory in effect until 8 pm edt this evening...
This afternoon..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Tonight..NW winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming W 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Seas around 2 ft.
Fri..W winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming sw 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas around 2 ft.
Fri night..SW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Sat..SW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Chance of showers in the morning.
Sat night..NW winds around 15 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Sun..NW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Sun night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Mon..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Mon night..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
ANZ300 105 Pm Edt Thu Oct 18 2018
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. Canadian high pressure will remain in control through Friday. A cold front approaches Friday night and pushes off shore Saturday. High pressure builds in for the rest of the weekend and pushes off shore Monday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Fenwick borough, CT
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location: 41.27, -72.36     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 181752
afdokx
area forecast discussion
national weather service new york ny
152 pm edt Thu oct 18 2018

Synopsis
Canadian high pressure will remain in control through Friday. A
cold front approaches Friday night and pushes off shore Saturday.

High pressure builds in for the rest of the weekend and pushes off
shore Monday. Another cold front moves late Tuesday.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
No changes at this time.

Cold advection will continue with 850 mb temps progged to
moderate into this evening. Longwave upper trough moves well
offshore with heights rising aloft. Mixing heights are progged
to be between 850 and 900 mb, but winds in the boundary layer
gradually weaken.

The cold temperatures will be the main story for today. Highs are
forecast to reach the upper 40s to near 50 degrees. These
temperatures are around 15 degrees below normal for this time of
year. Record minimum high temperatures for october 18 are close to
current forecast highs at a few locations. See climate section below
for these records.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 pm Friday
Good radiational cooling conditions are expected tonight as
winds become light and combine with clear skies and a dry air
mass. The core of the high pressure will settle to our south,
but locations away from the nyc metro should be able to see the
boundary layer decouple to allow temperatures to drop more
significantly than what occurred early Thursday morning.

Temperatures will bottom out in the upper 20s and low 30s across
the interior. Have issued a freeze warning for western passaic,
interior lower hudson valley, and interior southern
connecticut. Areas of frost are also likely and have therefore
issued a frost advisory for portions of NE nj, SE coastal ct,
and eastern long island, where temperatures likely fall into the
middle 30s. Elsewhere, lows will be in the upper 30s and lower
40s.

Middle and upper ridge axis moves across on Friday with the
surface high passing to our south and east. The air mass over
the region moderates significantly with 850 mb temperatures
approaching 10c in the afternoon. High temperatures will about
10 degrees warmer than Thursday, in the upper 50s to near 60
degrees.

Long term Friday night through Wednesday
A cold front will approach Friday night along with the next
long wave trough. This front will move through late in the day
on Saturday, with a low chance for showers for the entire area.

The upper level trough will be slower to push offshore as a
closed low sets up over eastern canada. This trough will remain
over the northeast through the rest of the long term period as
well as help to lock in cooler than normal temperatures through
the period with the exception of Saturday, which will be near
normal.

After the cold frontal passage, lake effect precipitation will
commence as cooler air move over the great lakes. There is the
potential for a shower to affect northwestern portions of the
area, such as orange county. Additionally, the ECMWF is hinting
at ocean effect precipitation possibly affect long island.

However, confidence and precipitation amounts will be too low to
include even a slight chance just yet, so will keep conditions
dry for Saturday night through the beginning of next week.

Thereafter, a cold front approaches and moves through Tuesday.

However, there are differences in the operational models with
the track of a weak low pressure system associated with this
frontal system. The ECMWF brings it farther south than the gfs.

Will include slight chance pops for this possibility.

Aviation 18z Thursday through Tuesday
Vfr as high pressure builds into the region.

Wnw winds will gust 20-30 kt (but should gust mostly in the
middle 20s, and will diminish as we head into the late afternoon)
through 00z. Wind direction 280-300 true for the rest of this
afternoon and tonight with gusts ending between 00-02z. Winds
shift to the W and SW late tonight into Friday morning, with
gusts 15-20 kt for the 30 hours tafs.

Ny metro enhanced aviation weather support...

detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: http:

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
LDLC3 - New London Ledge CT - Ledge Light Weather 15 mi37 min WNW 23 G 29 46°F 1024.8 hPa16°F
NLNC3 - 8461490 - New London, CT 16 mi34 min NW 9.9 G 15 47°F 66°F1024.1 hPa
44039 - Central Long Island Sound 18 mi82 min NW 19 G 23 47°F 66°F3 ft
MTKN6 - 8510560 - Montauk, NY 26 mi34 min 46°F 61°F1024.1 hPa
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 29 mi34 min NW 16 G 22 47°F 65°F1025.6 hPa
44017 - 23 Nautical Miles Southwest of Montauk Point, NY 43 mi62 min W 21 G 27 46°F 63°F4 ft1025.4 hPa (+0.0)28°F
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 44 mi40 min WNW 7 G 12 48°F 64°F1025.1 hPa

Wind History for New London, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Chester, Chester Airport, CT11 mi57 minNW 14 G 2210.00 miFair46°F12°F25%1024.7 hPa
Groton / New London, Groton / New London Airport, CT17 mi56 minNNW 16 G 2210.00 miFair48°F17°F29%1024.3 hPa

Wind History from SNC (wind in knots)
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1 day ago54SW4SW4W4CalmCalmW4W46W5CalmW44W5W5SW4SW6SW9W8
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Tide / Current Tables for Old Saybrook Point, Connecticut
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Old Saybrook Point
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:35 AM EDT     0.57 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 12:47 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 06:51 AM EDT     2.95 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:04 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 12:52 PM EDT     0.83 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 03:24 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 06:03 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 07:03 PM EDT     3.17 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.60.60.91.31.92.52.82.92.82.41.81.30.90.811.422.633.232.621.4

Tide / Current Tables for The Race, Long Island Sound, New York Current
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The Race
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:45 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 01:26 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 04:11 AM EDT     1.83 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 07:03 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:37 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 10:29 AM EDT     -2.08 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 01:48 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 03:23 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 04:33 PM EDT     1.84 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 06:02 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 07:54 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 10:55 PM EDT     -2.37 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-1.3-0.50.61.51.81.71.30.6-0.4-1.4-2-2-1.5-0.80.21.21.81.81.50.9-0.1-1.2-2.1-2.4

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.