Thursday, June21, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Fenwick, CT

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 5:16AMSunset 8:28PM Thursday June 21, 2018 10:11 AM EDT (14:11 UTC) Moonrise 2:05PMMoonset 1:36AM Illumination 57% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 8 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ330 Long Island Sound East Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 1003 Am Edt Thu Jun 21 2018
Today..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Slight chance of rain late this morning.
Tonight..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Fri..E winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Fri night..E winds around 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers after midnight.
Sat..E winds around 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers.
Sat night..SE winds around 10 kt, becoming sw after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of tstms. Showers likely, mainly in the evening.
Sun..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less, then around 2 ft in the afternoon.
Sun night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft in the evening, then 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms.
Mon..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers in the morning.
Mon night..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
ANZ300 1003 Am Edt Thu Jun 21 2018
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. Low pres tracks se of the waters today. High pressure retreats to the north and east on Friday as the next frontal system approaches. This frontal system will move across the region this weekend. High pressure returns for next week.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Fenwick borough, CT
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location: 41.27, -72.36     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 211404
afdokx
area forecast discussion
national weather service new york ny
1004 am edt Thu jun 21 2018

Synopsis
Low pressure will track southeast of the region today, allowing
high pressure to build in from the north on Friday. A warm
front passes early this weekend, then is followed by a cold
front later this weekend. High pressure builds next week.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
Last of the showers were passing across the south fork of
eastern long island with skies forecast to clear from NW to se
through early this afternoon.

Low pressure will pass south and east of long island today.

The NE flow is progged to be less than 10kt, and with h85 flow
falling below 15kt early this afternoon. This may allow for the
development of a seabreeze. The model consensus is for the flow
to veer to around 100 degrees, but it would not be surprising
to see spots along the immediate south coasts to go closer to
true sea breeze direction. The nbm was used for temps.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 pm Friday
High pres builds into NRN new england tngt, and there is a
suggestion that some marine stratus flows in from the e. The
nam is much more aggressive than the gfs, which is typical, but
the GFS has a significant amount of cirrus as well, which is
supported by the current water vapor imagery. As a result, the
fcst is ptcloudy, with room for upward adjustment based on the
evolution of the marine stratus and eventual thickness of the
cirrus. Increasing clouds from the S then on Fri as SW flow
aloft develops. Increasing thetae could support a few shwrs,
particularly late in the day across the swrn portion of the cwa.

Pops have been limited to slight chc however in line with the
model consensus data. The NAM holds firm with the high resulting
in dry wx. The nbm was used for temps, with cooler highs due to
onshore ely flow.

Long term Friday night through Wednesday
Closed upper low opens as it traverses across the great lakes region
and into new england this weekend. Models are in overall agreement
on main features, with details still differing somewhat.

In general, warm front approaches Friday night, with a wave of low
pressure riding along the front, passing south and east by Saturday.

Ridging from the northeast could result in drier conditions,
providing subsidence and stability, with persistent onshore flow
prevailing north of the front, and wave.

However, the upper low and trough are progged to open up as
mentioned and broaden as the system lifts towards the great lakes.

The main upper trough axis swings through Saturday evening and
Saturday night leaving behind a westerly flow on Sunday. Another
upper trough should cross the region Sunday night into Monday,
finally taking the frontal system offshore.

Will maintain previous forecast of gradually increasing pops on
Friday night into Saturday morning. Chance coverage to
likely numerous coverage for showers. Meager instability noted, so
thunder chances remain quite low Saturday.

It appears at this time the best forcing will be with the upper
shortwave axis and passage of the warm front Saturday evening into
Saturday night, so showers thunder possible during that time frame.

Conditions should dry out Sunday with the region fully in the warm
sector. Westerly flow aloft and a much drier middle and upper
atmosphere prevents anything more than a chance for showers and
thunderstorms with a cold front nearby. The chance for showers and
thunderstorms continues into Monday morning with the upper trough
axis passing across the area eastern new england. Drier weather
returns Monday per 00z model suite.

While the weekend certainly does not look like a washout, there will
be periods of showers and possible storms Saturday night into
Sunday. Locally heavy rainfall is possible in any convection.

High pressure returns behind the upper trough and frontal
system moving offshore on Monday. The high will be in control
through the middle of the week.

Temperatures average below normal Saturday and then above normal on
Sunday. Temperatures should then average near normal for next
week.

Aviation 14z Thursday through Monday
A wave of low pressure passes south of the terminals this
morning. High pressure begins to slowly build south tonight.

Rain continues to push east of the area this morning. MVFR and
isolated ifr conditions may linger for another hour or two at
city and coastal terminals, otherwise conditions are expected
to improve toVFR by 15-16z. With northeast to easterly flow,
there is some potential for lower ceilings to move back into the
area from the east during the overnight hours, but confidence
in this occurring is low at this time. Any lower ceilings
tonight would be most likely to impact kisp kgon.

Northeast winds around 10 kt will become more easterly this
afternoon at coastal terminals. Winds then diminish to 5-10 kt
or less everywhere tonight.

Ny metro enhanced aviation weather support...

detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: http:

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
LDLC3 - New London Ledge CT - Ledge Light Weather 15 mi32 min E 6 G 7 63°F 1009.1 hPa60°F
NLNC3 - 8461490 - New London, CT 16 mi42 min SE 1.9 G 5.1 67°F 64°F1008.2 hPa
44039 - Central Long Island Sound 18 mi42 min E 5.8 G 5.8 65°F 1 ft
MTKN6 - 8510560 - Montauk, NY 26 mi42 min 64°F 65°F1008.6 hPa
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 29 mi42 min SW 4.1 G 4.1 67°F 67°F1008.7 hPa
44017 - 23 Nautical Miles Southwest of Montauk Point, NY 43 mi82 min E 9.7 G 12 63°F 62°F2 ft1007.9 hPa (+0.0)63°F
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 44 mi48 min S 5.1 G 6 70°F 62°F1008 hPa

Wind History for New London, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Chester, Chester Airport, CT11 mi77 minN 010.00 miMostly Cloudy70°F66°F88%1008.8 hPa
Groton / New London, Groton / New London Airport, CT17 mi76 minE 510.00 miOvercast65°F61°F87%1008.2 hPa

Wind History from SNC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalm5W4W44
G10
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G11
SW7SW6S5S5S5SW3SW5SW3CalmSW7SW5S6CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
1 day agoN11
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N8CalmNW3NW4CalmN3N4N4N4NW3CalmCalmCalmN3Calm
2 days agoS10
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SW106S3SW5SW65SW5W6
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Tide / Current Tables for Old Saybrook Point, Connecticut
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Old Saybrook Point
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:35 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 05:16 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 06:01 AM EDT     3.29 feet High Tide
Thu -- 12:15 PM EDT     0.06 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 02:05 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 06:43 PM EDT     3.73 feet High Tide
Thu -- 08:26 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.30.51.11.82.53.13.33.12.61.810.40.10.20.71.52.33.13.63.73.42.71.91.1

Tide / Current Tables for The Race, Long Island Sound, New York Current
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The Race
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:42 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 01:34 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 03:29 AM EDT     2.51 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 05:15 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 06:46 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 09:45 AM EDT     -2.95 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 01:01 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 02:04 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 03:59 PM EDT     2.78 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 07:21 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 08:24 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 10:22 PM EDT     -3.07 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-10.41.72.42.421-0.3-1.7-2.7-2.9-2.4-1.4-01.42.52.82.51.80.5-1-2.3-3-2.9

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
target = "new">Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (10,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.