Friday, April26, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Fenwick, CT

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 5:53AMSunset 7:43PM Friday April 26, 2019 4:43 AM EDT (08:43 UTC) Moonrise 1:56AMMoonset 11:37AM Illumination 57% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 22 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ330 Long Island Sound East Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 348 Am Edt Fri Apr 26 2019
.small craft advisory in effect from Saturday morning through Saturday afternoon...
Today..E winds around 10 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt with occasional gusts up to 25 kt late this morning and afternoon. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Rain until late afternoon, then showers likely late.
Tonight..SE winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming sw after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Showers, mainly in the evening with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sat..W winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Sat night..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Sun..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming se in the afternoon. Seas around 2 ft in the morning, then 1 ft or less. Chance of rain.
Sun night..N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Mon..NW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming W around 5 kt in the afternoon. Seas around 2 ft in the morning, then 1 ft or less.
Mon night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of rain.
Tue..SE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming sw in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers.
Tue night..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
ANZ300 348 Am Edt Fri Apr 26 2019
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. A warm front moves across the area waters this morning through this afternoon, followed by a cold front this evening as the associated low pressure moves through the eastern great lakes. A series of lows will impact the area from Sunday through the upcoming week with brief periods of high pressure in between.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Fenwick borough, CT
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location: 41.27, -72.36     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 260700
afdokx
area forecast discussion
national weather service new york ny
300 am edt Fri apr 26 2019

Synopsis
High pressure continues to move further offshore overnight as a
warm front moves north toward the area. Low pressure will track
across the ohio valley and eastern great lakes into Friday,
dragging a cold front across the area Friday afternoon into
Friday night. Low pressure departs to the north Saturday as weak
high pressure briefly builds into the area. Weak low pressure
passes across the tri state area Sunday and Sunday night. High
pressure briefly builds again Monday into Monday night before a
series of frontal systems impact the area through the late week.

Near term until 6 am this morning
The warm front remains to the south of the region with periods
of light rain continuing across the southern portion of the
forecast area overnight. Under cloudy skies and warm advection
temperatures will hold nearly steady or even rise a degree or so
through the overnight. Adjusted temperatures and overnight
lows.

Short term 6 am this morning through 6 pm Saturday
A warm front will continue to push northward towards the area
Friday morning as a surface low over the ohio valley tracks
northeast. The warm front is forecast to move north across the
area by Friday afternoon with the cold front associated with the
low pressure expected to move across the area from west to east
by Friday night. As the warm front gets closer to the area,
rain will become more widespread, then rain may become more
intermittent during the afternoon then increase in coverage
again as the cold front moves across the area through Friday
night. Will continue the mention of thunder for later in the day
on Friday and into Friday evening as a few hundred joules per
kilogram of MUCAPE can be expected per latest weather models.

Total rainfall expected Friday into Friday night is forecast to
be between a half inch to one inch. Higher amounts are possible
with any thunderstorm development.

Temperatures on Friday will be in the upper 50s to mid 60s with
night time temperatures in the mid 40s to around 50.

Long term Saturday night through Thursday
The extended forecast period will remain active as the northern
stream jet dominates and a series of short waves move through the
area. The first wave will slowly depart on Saturday, but with
lingering cyclonic flow, periodic showers may be possible through
the day. Conditions will be breezy as the departing low pressure
intensifies and high pressure builds from the west. Saturday night
will offer only a brief reprieve before another short wave moves in
from the west, bringing a weak surface low reflection and another
chance of rain over the area for Sunday.

Deep layer ridging follows into Monday. Thereafter, the upper
pattern is expected to become more amplified as ridging builds over
the southeast us, and a trough deepens over the west. A transition
to more southwesterly flow between the two systems will allow an
influx of gulf moisture northward, setting the stage for periods of
heavy rainfall into the late week, especially in the vicinity of a
nearly stationary boundary where training cells will be possible.

There remains uncertainty as to where the boundary will set up, with
deterministic models generally suggesting near or just north of our
local area. Will need to monitor for the potential for greater
accumulations of rainfall into the mid to late week.

Temperatures in the extended will generally be within a few degrees
of climatological normals, with the coldest temperatures expected
for Sunday and Sunday night.

Aviation 07z Friday through Tuesday
A warm front is approaching the region. This will eventually
move into and across the region this afternoon into early tonight.

The warm front will be followed by a cold front later tonight.

InitiallyVFR conditions until near daybreak when MVFR to ifr
conditions will develop as heavier rain shower activity moves
in from the west. MVFR to ifr stratus expected to linger
through the day with more rain showers coming into place with
the cold front late in the day into tonight. In the afternoon
into tonight, along with the showers, there will be a slight
chance of thunderstorms.VFR expected to return behind the cold
front late tonight.

Winds will be initially east around 5 kts going into early
morning and then increasing to near 10 kts. The winds become
more se-s by mid to late afternoon into the evening and
increase to 10-15 kts. Winds veer to SW direction tonight and
eventually west late with potential for gusts up to 20 kt.

Additionally, llws is expected at coastal terminals this
afternoon into this evening with 2kft SW winds of near 40-50kt.

Outlook for 06z Saturday through Tuesday
Late tonight Vfr returns behind cold fropa.

Saturday Vfr. W to NW gusts up to 30 kt.

Sunday A chance of showers with MVFR conditions.

Monday Vfr.

Monday night-Tuesday Chance of showers and MVFR conditions.

Marine
No changes to winds and seas at this time.

Below SCA conditions expected through early Friday. Seas and
winds increase Friday afternoon ahead of a low pressure system
and its associated cold front. Therefore a SCA advisory has been
issued for Friday evening and into early Saturday.

West-northwest winds will rapidly increase into Saturday behind the
departing cold front, with SCA to possible gales on all waters.

Ocean temperatures remain cold, so it is possible that an inversion
will hinder stronger gusts. As such will hold off on a gale watch
for now. Winds then slowly decrease into the evening, though ocean
seas will remain elevated into Saturday night.

Another low and frontal system are forecast to move over the waters
Sunday, with winds strengthening to SCA levels in its wake Sunday
night. Ocean seas will once again build in response, before winds
and seas subside again into Monday and Tuesday as high pressure
builds over the waters.

Hydrology
Rainfall amounts of at least half inch, to possibly over an
inch in spots, will occur through Friday night. Quick motion of
the cells may limit a more widespread flooding threat, with
nuisance urban poor draining flooding the main concerns at this
time.

A series of frontal systems will bring a chance of precipitation
Sunday through Wednesday. Significant precipitation is not
expected, with a total of 1 2 inch to 3 4 of an inch through the
period.

Equipment
Nyc NOAA weather radio station kwo35 (162.55 mhz) remains off
the air.

Okx watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ny... None.

Nj... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory from 4 pm this afternoon to 6 am edt
Saturday for anz350-353-355.

Synopsis... Md fig
near term... 12 fig
short term... Fig
long term... Md
aviation... Jm
marine... Md fig
hydrology... Md fig
equipment...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
LDLC3 - New London Ledge CT - Ledge Light Weather 15 mi49 min E 13 G 15 50°F 1006.3 hPa44°F
NLNC3 - 8461490 - New London, CT 16 mi50 min E 5.1 G 7 50°F 48°F1011.4 hPa
MTKN6 - 8510560 - Montauk, NY 26 mi50 min 49°F 51°F1011.6 hPa
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 29 mi50 min ESE 5.1 G 9.9 51°F 54°F1011 hPa
44017 - 23 Nautical Miles Southwest of Montauk Point, NY 43 mi54 min ESE 9.7 G 12 50°F 49°F2 ft1011 hPa (-2.5)46°F
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 44 mi50 min E 5.1 G 8.9 51°F 49°F1010.4 hPa

Wind History for New London, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Chester, Chester Airport, CT11 mi49 minESE 410.00 miMostly Cloudy50°F46°F88%1011.2 hPa
Groton / New London, Groton / New London Airport, CT17 mi48 minE 810.00 miOvercast50°F43°F77%1011.4 hPa

Wind History from SNC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmNW4N7N6CalmCalm45
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Tide / Current Tables for Old Saybrook Point, Connecticut
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Old Saybrook Point
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Fri -- 01:55 AM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 04:48 AM EDT     3.14 feet High Tide
Fri -- 05:53 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 11:20 AM EDT     0.42 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 11:37 AM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 05:36 PM EDT     2.77 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:19 PM EDT     Last Quarter
Fri -- 07:41 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 11:33 PM EDT     0.79 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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11.52.12.733.12.92.41.81.20.70.40.50.81.31.92.42.72.72.52.11.61.10.8

Tide / Current Tables for The Race, Long Island Sound, New York Current
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The Race
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Fri -- 01:54 AM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 02:07 AM EDT     1.97 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 05:31 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 05:52 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:37 AM EDT     -2.43 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 11:36 AM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 12:05 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 02:47 PM EDT     1.88 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 06:17 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 06:19 PM EDT     Last Quarter
Fri -- 07:40 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 09:08 PM EDT     -2.04 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.71.621.81.30.5-0.5-1.6-2.3-2.4-1.9-1.1-0.111.71.91.61.10.3-0.7-1.6-2-1.8-1.2

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (4,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.