Sunday, June16, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Fenwick, CT

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Sunrise 5:15AMSunset 8:27PM Sunday June 16, 2019 1:44 PM EDT (17:44 UTC) Moonrise 7:51PMMoonset 4:47AM Illumination 99% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 14 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ330 Long Island Sound East Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 1256 Pm Edt Sun Jun 16 2019
This afternoon..S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers late.
Tonight..SW winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, becoming W after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less. Showers likely, mainly in the evening.
Mon..NW winds around 5 kt, becoming sw in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less.
Mon night..SE winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms in the evening, then showers and tstms likely after midnight.
Tue..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers.
Tue night..E winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers.
Wed..NE winds around 5 kt, becoming se in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers.
Wed night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers.
Thu..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers in the afternoon.
Thu night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
ANZ300 1256 Pm Edt Sun Jun 16 2019
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. A cold front approaches today and passes through tonight. The front then stalls near the waters Monday through Thursday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Fenwick borough, CT
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location: 41.27, -72.36     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 161724
afdokx
area forecast discussion
national weather service new york ny
124 pm edt Sun jun 16 2019

Synopsis
A weakening cold front will approaches and passes through the
area late this afternoon into tonight. The front remains close
to the region through much of the upcoming week. Several waves
of low pressure may move along the front, bringing periods of
unsettled weather.

Near term through tonight
A weak cold front was from northern new england through eastern
upstate new york to western new york was moving little this
afternoon.

A few light showers were moving through the region early this
afternoon. Convective wave moving out of ohio was entering
western pennsylvania. Hrrr still taking main area with this
convective vort across the southern portions and south of the
area. May be a little too quick with the likely probabilities.

Cape and instability remain limited so slight chance of thunder
still looks good. With the uncertainty of the areal extent and
timing of the precipitation have lowered probabilities to likely
and chance. Also limited the timing from around 18z to 23z. The
storm prediction center has the southwestern portion of the
forecast area in a marginal risk.

There is a high risk for rip currents at the ocean beaches
today.

Short term Monday through Monday night
A lull in the precipitation is possible during the day on Monday,
before additional showers and thunderstorms potentially develop
Monday evening and night. Confidence is low due to a lack of model
agreement and consistency. The placement of a residual frontal
boundary will determine where the best focus for the rainfall will
be. The 00z consensus is that the front remains over the ocean
during the day, then comes back northward overnight. A model blend
was used for precipitation chances. Temperatures are likely to warm
a few degrees with highs in the mid 70s to lower 80s, and lows
in the 60s. There is a moderate rip current risk for Monday.

Long term Tuesday through Saturday
The main story of the long term continues to surround a nearly
stationary frontal boundary that will bring periods of unsettled
weather. Confidence in the timing, duration, and any impacts
from showers and possible storms still remains low, especially
from Monday night through the end of the week.

The flow around the base of an upper low trough across
southeast canada will send several shortwaves disturbance across
the tri- state, but the timing of these is still not well
resolved by the 12z model guidance. These shortwaves in the flow
are likely convectively induced and are difficult for models to
resolve past 48 hours. Another factor of uncertainty is how
much if any of these waves force the frontal boundary further
south causing lower precipitation chances.

The next potential shortwave and frontal wave may occur into
Tuesday. Due to model differences and uncertainty in the
strength, placement, and timing of this feature, have capped
pops at 50 percent on Tuesday. Instability looks weak, but have
included mention of a slight chance of thunder.

Another possible shortwave and frontal wave may occur on
Wednesday. However, the ECMWF is much flatter and weaker
compared to the gfs. Interestingly, the deterministic models are
progging a more well defined shortwave trough and frontal wave
for late Thursday into potentially Friday. This shortwave could
leave behind ridging into early next weekend. Will continue to
show chance pops for mainly showers during much of this time
period due to recent model performance in this pattern.

Temperatures through the long term will average near to slightly
above normal.

Aviation 18z Sunday through Friday
A weak cold front will slowly move across the terminals this
evening. The front likely stalls just south on Monday.

MainlyVFR through the TAF period. A brief shower is possible
early this afternoon. A broken line of showers may also develop
around city terminals 21z-00z. This activity then moves across
long island and southern connecticut terminals. A thunderstorm
is possible, but have continued with vcts at city terminals,
hpn, and swf due to uncertainty in coverage and timing. Any
showers could produce brief MVFR conditions.

S-sw winds 10-15 kt this afternoon. Gusts are still possible,
but are looking more occasional than frequent. It is entirely
possible that gusts do no occur at city terminals. Winds shift
towards the W this evening and then NW tonight as the front
settles to the south. Light n-ne flow develops around day break
Monday.

Outlook for 18z Monday through Thursday
Mon-thu Showers and isolated thunderstorms possible each
day, with the better chances Tue and wed.VFR, becoming MVFR
Monday night. Ifr possible Tue and wed.

Fri MainlyVFR. Slight chance of a shower.

Marine
No changes at this time.

Winds and seas forecast currently on track. Timing of weather
for this afternoon through tonight was adjusted.

Otherwise, SCA conds expected today and tonight on the ocean
waters, but there may be occasional gusts up to 25 kt along the
south shore bays this afternoon. Winds subside tonight but seas
will remain elevated on the ocean with a swell. Sub-sca conds
then follow through the rest of the forecast period with a
frontal boundary stalled near the waters and a relatively weak
pressure gradient. Waves of low pressure will move along this
boundary, but their timing and placement are uncertain. One of
these waves could increase winds on the waters, but overall,
conditions should stay below SCA levels into Thursday.

Hydrology
A frontal boundary approaches today and then stalls over the
region through much of next week. Basin average rainfall will
total around 1 4 to 1 2 inch through late tonight, with locally
higher amounts possible across the lower hudson valley into
northeastern new jersey, and metropolitan new york. At this time
significant hydrologic impacts are not expected.

Waves of low pressure moving along a nearly stationary frontal
boundary this week could produce periods of moderate to heavy
downpours. The timing, amounts, and any hydrologic impacts
remain uncertain.

Equipment
Nyc NOAA weather radio station kwo35 (162.55 mhz) remains off
the air.

Okx watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ny... High rip current risk until 9 pm edt this evening for nyz075-
080-081-178-179.

Nj... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until midnight edt tonight for anz355.

Small craft advisory until 6 am edt Monday for anz350-353.

Synopsis...

near term... 19
short term...

long term...

aviation... Ds
marine... 19
hydrology... 19
equipment...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
LDLC3 - New London Ledge CT - Ledge Light Weather 15 mi50 min SSW 13 G 14 65°F 1011.6 hPa61°F
44017 - 23 Nautical Miles Southwest of Montauk Point, NY 43 mi45 min SSW 14 G 18 64°F 1013 hPa61°F

Wind History for New London, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Chester, Chester Airport, CT11 mi70 minS 6 G 1210.00 miMostly Cloudy73°F64°F74%1012.2 hPa
Groton / New London, Groton / New London Airport, CT17 mi49 minSSW 910.00 miFair70°F62°F76%1011.8 hPa

Wind History from SNC (wind in knots)
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N8N76N6CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm354
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Tide / Current Tables for Old Saybrook Point, Connecticut
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Old Saybrook Point
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Sun -- 04:47 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 04:53 AM EDT     -0.09 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 05:15 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 10:53 AM EDT     3.15 feet High Tide
Sun -- 04:44 PM EDT     0.20 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 07:50 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 08:24 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 11:06 PM EDT     4.06 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.52.61.60.70.1-0.10.20.81.62.433.12.92.31.50.80.30.20.61.32.23.13.84.1

Tide / Current Tables for The Race, Long Island Sound, New York Current
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The Race
Click for Map
Sun -- 02:13 AM EDT     -3.70 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 04:46 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 05:14 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 05:37 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 08:28 AM EDT     2.93 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 11:42 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 02:33 PM EDT     -3.06 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 05:40 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 07:49 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 08:23 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 08:36 PM EDT     3.07 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 11:52 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-1.6-3-3.7-3.4-2.5-10.72.12.92.82.31.1-0.5-2-2.9-3-2.3-10.522.932.51.4

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.