Saturday, February23, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Westbrook Center, CT

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:32AMSunset 5:35PM Saturday February 23, 2019 10:12 AM EST (15:12 UTC) Moonrise 11:32PMMoonset 10:09AM Illumination 82% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 19 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ330 Long Island Sound East Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 914 Am Est Sat Feb 23 2019
.gale watch in effect from Sunday evening through late Monday night...
Today..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Tonight..SE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming E 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less, then around 2 ft after midnight. Chance of rain in the evening, then rain after midnight with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sun..SE winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming sw in the afternoon. Occasional gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sun night..W winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt, increasing to 25 to 30 kt with gusts up to 45 kt after midnight. Seas 3 to 5 ft, building to 4 to 7 ft after midnight.
Mon..W winds around 30 kt with gusts up to 45 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft.
Mon night..NW winds 25 to 30 kt, diminishing to 20 to 25 kt after midnight. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
Tue..NW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Tue night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Seas around 2 ft in the evening, then 1 ft or less.
Wed..NW winds around 10 kt, becoming sw in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less.
Wed night..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
ANZ300 914 Am Est Sat Feb 23 2019
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. High pressure will shift offshore this afternoon and tonight. A frontal system associated with strong low pressure tracking through the great lakes and southeast canada will impact the waters tonight into Sunday. High pressure returns early next week with a weaker area of low pressure possible during the middle of the week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Westbrook Center, CT
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location: 41.27, -72.47     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 231421
afdokx
area forecast discussion
national weather service new york ny
921 am est Sat feb 23 2019

Synopsis
High pressure moves offshore today. A deep low passing several
hundred miles west then north of the region will produce
unsettled weather tonight and Sunday. Mainly fair weather is
expected next week, with a low potential for both a midweek
system and an end of the week coastal low.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
Water vapor continues to indicates a stream of moisture pumping
directly into the area from the subtropical pacific. The goes-
east channel 4 (cirrus band) really shows the extent of the
cirrus really well. While there are thin spots, a mostly cloudy
characteristic fits what is being observed on satellite. The
cirrus will only thicken through the day in this pattern.

The forecast remains dry today as high pressure slowly drifts
offshore. Middle and upper level ridge axis overhead will also
help in keeping any precipitation with the approaching system
well to our south and west.

Highs will be near or slightly below average in the lower to
middle 40s.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 pm Sunday
The main challenge tngt, outside of timing the exact onset of pcpn,
is the fzra threat across the interior. Temps aloft will warm
quickly, but very lgt sely flow will likely not be sufficient to
displace the llvl cold air across the interior. Regardless, the
entire airmass should modify enough to change all pcpn across the
area to plain rain by around 10-12z sun.

For the fcst, a model blend of the 2m data minus one degree was used
for temps. The resultant temps are right around freezing across the
interior, so any deviations of a degree or two from the fcst will
result in as little as no fzra, or a more extensive area of fzra.

A winter wx advy has been issued for orange county, where the prob
of fzra is highest. Some pockets of fzra are possible from nwrn nj
zones to interior ct zones. These areas have some fzra included in
the fcst, along with a mention in the hwo. These areas could be
upgraded to an advy if necessary based on future data. Across the
rest of the area, all rain is expected.

The rain tapers off from SW to NE during the day on sun. Again, the
trend is slower, so ERN sections could see rain for most of the day.

The nbm was used for temps, with the guidance remaining consistently
mild for the day.

For winds, pres gradient begins to tighten late tonight between
departing high pres and strong low pres moving into the great
lakes. Winds will start to increase late tonight and continue
through sun, although low level inversion is expected to keep
much of the winds from mixing down until the cold FROPA late sun
aftn eve.

Long term Sunday night through Friday
The cold front associated with the sys comes thru Sun eve, right
around 00z per the GFS and nam. Persistent dpva could help to
trigger a few shsn Sun ngt and even mon, but moisture is limited.

The fcst was kept dry for now with the deepest moisture N of the
cwa.

For winds, guidance has been overdoing wind events all season.

Additionally, highest pressure rises behind the FROPA are
expected to be across southern nj. Therefore, while winds are
expected to be strong, am not confident enough to issue a high
wind watch at this time. Current thinking is a strong wind
advsy. Anticipating sustained winds between 25-35 mph with gusts
40-50mph, possibly 55mph with the strongest winds occurring on
Monday. Winds then gradually decrease Mon night.

Mainly fair and seasonably cold wx is then fcst for the rest of the
week. The GFS has backed off on the sys for wed, and the ECMWF and
gem are both dry. As a result, pops were reduced to 20 percent.

There are some hints of a cstl sys for the end of the week or next
weekend time period. A model blend was used with pops limited to
slight chance Fri and Fri ngt.

Aviation 14z Saturday through Wednesday
Vfr into much of this evening as high pressure slides across. As a
warm front approaches tonight, light rain with some MVFR CIGS may
make it to the nyc metros after 03z-04z, becoming more
widespread thereafter. A brief period of mixed precip is possible
at the onset (around 06z) at kswf. Ifr likely develops aft 06z.

N winds 5-10 kt to start will veer NE this morning, then become
mainly se. Light E winds expected first half of tonight then
increase back to around 10-14 kt at coastal terminals towards
12z with llws developing.

Outlook for 12z Sunday through Wednesday
Sunday Rain with ifr lifr conds and llws at coastal terminals
during the morning. MVFR returns during the aftn behind warm
fropa, thenVFR late behind cold fropa.

Sunday night and Monday Vfr. Monday w-nw winds 15-25kt g35-45kt.

Isolated stronger winds possible.

Tuesday Vfr.

Wednesday Chance of light snow with MVFR local ifr conds.

Marine
High pressure over the northeast shifts offshore this aftn and
tonight as low pressure in the central plains tracks NE towards the
great lakes while strengthening. The pres gradient will tighten late
tonight with SCA conds developing on the ocean waters by sun
morning. A warm front will lift into the waters during the morning,
with a cold front passing late Sun aftn and eve. Winds will
strengthen to gale force Sun eve with possibly even storm force
gusts on the ocean waters late Sun night through mon. The strongest
winds and highest seas will be during this time. Winds and seas
gradually diminish Mon night and Tue although headlines will likely
be needed through this time.

Sub-advsy conds are then expected through the remainder of the
forecast period.

Hydrology
Around 1-1.5 inches of rain is fcst tngt and sun. Some minor urban
or poor drainage flooding will be possible. Otherwise, no hydrologic
impacts are anticipated thru fri.

Equipment
Nyc central park winds are out of service until further notice.

Loss of data is due to a severed cable. Parts are on order.

Nyc NOAA weather radio station kwo35 (162.55 mhz) will remain off
the air for an extended period of time.

Okx watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ny... Winter weather advisory from 7 pm this evening to 6 am est
Sunday for nyz067.

Nj... None.

Marine... Gale watch from Sunday evening through late Monday night for
anz330-335-338-340-345.

Storm watch from Sunday evening through Monday afternoon for
anz350-353-355.

Small craft advisory from 6 am to 6 pm est Sunday for anz350-
353-355.

Synopsis... Jmc
near term... Jmc ds
short term... Jmc 24
long term... Jmc 24
aviation... 24
marine... 24
hydrology... Jmc
equipment...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
LDLC3 - New London Ledge CT - Ledge Light Weather 21 mi47 min NNE 5.1 G 7 35°F 1032.1 hPa20°F
NLNC3 - 8461490 - New London, CT 21 mi42 min N 2.9 G 7 35°F 39°F1032.4 hPa
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 23 mi42 min NE 7 G 8.9 33°F 38°F1033 hPa
MTKN6 - 8510560 - Montauk, NY 31 mi42 min 34°F 38°F1032.4 hPa
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 38 mi42 min ENE 5.1 G 8
44017 - 23 Nautical Miles Southwest of Montauk Point, NY 46 mi82 min NE 12 G 14 37°F 41°F2 ft1032.8 hPa (+0.9)28°F

Wind History for New London, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Chester, Chester Airport, CT8 mi37 minVar 410.00 miFair36°F17°F48%1031.8 hPa
New Haven, Tweed-New Haven Airport, CT22 mi79 minNNE 410.00 miOvercast35°F19°F54%1032.7 hPa
Groton / New London, Groton / New London Airport, CT23 mi76 minNNE 910.00 miFair35°F19°F54%1032.5 hPa

Wind History from SNC (wind in knots)
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2 days agoCalmCalmSE5S55
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S6S3E4CalmCalmE3E3CalmCalmCalmSE6E4CalmN5N7NW6N6CalmN3

Tide / Current Tables for Westbrook, Duck Island Roads, Connecticut
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Westbrook
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Sat -- 01:18 AM EST     4.60 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:33 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:30 AM EST     -0.62 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 09:09 AM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 01:46 PM EST     4.32 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:33 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 07:53 PM EST     -0.42 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 10:31 PM EST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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44.64.43.62.51.20.1-0.5-0.50.11.12.33.44.14.33.82.91.70.6-0.2-0.4-00.92

Tide / Current Tables for The Race, Long Island Sound, New York Current
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The Race
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Sat -- 01:59 AM EST     -0.01 knots Slack
Sat -- 05:02 AM EST     -3.87 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 06:32 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:17 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 09:07 AM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 11:06 AM EST     3.31 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 02:23 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 05:24 PM EST     -3.58 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 05:31 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 08:35 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 10:30 PM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 11:30 PM EST     3.35 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.91.7-0-1.9-3.3-3.9-3.4-2.2-0.51.32.73.3320.6-1.1-2.6-3.5-3.4-2.5-10.72.33.2

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (10,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.