Monday, February19, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Madison Center, CT

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:36AMSunset 5:31PM Monday February 19, 2018 2:21 PM EST (19:21 UTC) Moonrise 9:47AMMoonset 10:26PM Illumination 20% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 4 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ330 Long Island Sound East Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 149 Pm Est Mon Feb 19 2018
This afternoon..S winds around 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of light rain late.
Tonight..SW winds around 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Light rain in the evening, then patchy drizzle after midnight.
Tue..SW winds around 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less, then around 2 ft in the afternoon. Patchy drizzle in the morning. Patchy fog in the afternoon. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tue night..SW winds around 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Areas of fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Wed..SW winds around 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Areas of fog. Vsby less than 1 nm.
Wed night..SW winds around 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, becoming nw after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less. Areas of fog in the evening. Chance of showers after midnight. Vsby less than 1 nm in the evening.
Thu..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers.
Thu night..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Fri..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of rain in the afternoon.
Fri night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of rain.
ANZ300 149 Pm Est Mon Feb 19 2018
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. High pressure strengthens over the western atlantic today as a warm front slowly approaches from the south. The front is expected to lift into the region late tonight, possibly lifting through the tri state area on Tuesday. A cold front approaches Wednesday and moves south of the area Wednesday night into Thursday. High pressure builds across new england on Friday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Madison Center, CT
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location: 41.27, -72.6     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 191828
afdokx
area forecast discussion
national weather service new york ny
128 pm est Mon feb 19 2018

Synopsis
High pressure strengthens over the western atlantic today as a
warm front slowly approaches from the south. The front is
expected to lift into the region late tonight, possibly lifting
through the tri state area on Tuesday. A cold front approaches
Wednesday and moves south of the area Wednesday night into
Thursday. High pressure builds across new england on Friday.

Unsettled conditions follow for the upcoming weekend.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
Leading edge of some light rain ahead of an approaching warm
front working into far western portions of orange county in the
lower hudson valley. Expect widespread light rain across the
area working in from west to east this afternoon into early this
evening. Clouds have overspread all but the twin forks of
eastern long island and SE ct, but will do in the next hour.

Temps are expected to be 5-10 degrees above normal today ranging
from the lower 40s well NW to lower 50s in the nyc metro. There
been some slight adjustments.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 pm Tuesday
Strong SE ridging continues through Tue with a bermuda high
parked over the western atlantic. Challenging forecast for tue
wrt warm fropa. Rain continues into the evening as the shortwave
tracks through new england and isentropic lift becomes more
widespread. The organized rain is expected to exit around
midnight or so, although light rain or drizzle is then expected
overnight with saturated low levels and mid level drying.

Additionally, areas of fog are expected to develop and it could
become dense in coastal locations tonight.

All available guidance is indicating the front pushes through
late tonight or Tue morning, however pattern recognition
suggests it may only partially move through at the sfc. The low
associated with the front will be well west of the appalachians
and typically warm fronts have a very hard time completely
moving through the local area in this type of scenario due to
the colder coastal waters. There is a 25-35kt LLJ between
1000-975mb late tonight Tue morning which may be enough to push
it through at the sfc. Have higher confidence that the front
lifts through western portions of the tri-state area, but lower
confidence that it lifts through ct. Thus, there is high bust
potential on high temps tue.

Long term Tuesday night through Sunday
Anomalously strong ridge across the southeast us western atlantic
will be in place on Wednesday. The ridge will largely stay in place
through the end of the week, but the core gets suppressed a bit with
a more westerly flow aloft over the northeast. Several pieces of
energy shortwaves are progged to flow out of the western us trough
and around the periphery of the ridge late this week and into the
upcoming weekend. The timing of these waves in the flow is difficult
to resolve at present time, but there will likely be periods of
unsettled conditions late this week into the upcoming weekend.

Tuesday night into Wednesday... Moist and unseasonably warm air mass
will likely lead to the develop of stratus and fog Tuesday night. It
is a big early to determine if the fog will be dense, but enough
confidence based on bufkit profiles and the anomalous nature of this
environment to include of areas of fog. The fog should mix out
Wednesday morning except for coastal areas such as long island and
southeast ct. This is due to the cooler water temperatures and a
stronger inversion above the surface. Surface temperatures will be
held down a bit here due to the ocean influence and potential for
fog stratus to linger. Highs range from the middle 50s to near 60s
degrees. Elsewhere, the warmest day of 2018 is likely for Wednesday
as temperatures warm into the upper 60s inland and near 70 or even
lower 70s for nyc metro and NE nj. See climate section below for
record highs.

Wednesday night into Thursday night... There is overall excellent
agreement among the 00z models and the last few runs of the
deterministic and ensemble guidance for a cold front to sink south
of the area Wednesday night into Thursday. The ridge breaks down
just enough to allow the front to move through the area. The models
do differ on the amount of shower activity with the front and then
again with any overrunning on Thursday as high pressure builds
across new england. Will continue with chance pops until Thursday
night when there is enough surface ridging to suppress the front and
moisture well to our south. Temperatures on Thursday will be about
10-15 degrees cooler than Wednesday, but still well above normal for
this time of year.

Friday into the upcoming weekend... Active and unsettled weather
pattern will continue as several shortwaves move around the
periphery of the southeast ridge. The best chance of rain based on a
blend of the latest guidance appears to be Friday into Friday night
and then again on Sunday. However, there are significant differences
among the GFS gefs ECMWF eps which indicate potential for rain on
Saturday as well. Temperatures will continue unseasonably mild
Saturday and Sunday.

Aviation 18z Monday through Saturday
High pressure continues to slide east as a warm front
approaches the area later this evening and tonight.

Vfr conditions with southerly winds 5 to 10 kt. Stratus has
overspread much of the region and rain will move in from the
west late. MVFR ceilings are possible by mid to late afternoon,
after 20-22z. S winds around 10 kt are forecast, and these
winds lighten by evening.

MVFR to ifr conditions are likely tonight as ceilings lower and
fog develops. Cannot rule out lifr ceilings and visibilities at
times as the night progresses. Llws in the forecast most
terminals for SW winds around 2 kft at 35-40 kt.

Low conditions continue Tuesday morning, however some
improvement is expected by mid to late morning. Uncertain to if
we actually reachVFR before 18z.

Ny metro enhanced aviation weather support...

detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: http:

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44039 - Central Long Island Sound 10 mi51 min S 3.9 G 5.8 41°F 1 ft
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 16 mi51 min S 4.1 G 5.1 42°F 38°F1030.3 hPa
NLNC3 - 8461490 - New London, CT 28 mi51 min S 5.1 G 8 46°F 38°F1030.6 hPa
LDLC3 - New London Ledge CT - Ledge Light Weather 28 mi41 min S 8 G 8.9 44°F 38°F
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 31 mi51 min S 2.9 G 4.1 1029.6 hPa
MTKN6 - 8510560 - Montauk, NY 37 mi51 min 46°F 38°F1030.6 hPa

Wind History for New Haven, CT
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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N8
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SE7
G11
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ago
NW18
G23
N10
G14
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G18
N15
G20
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G26
N16
G23
N16
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G27
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G14
NE10
G13
N6
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SW6
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G10
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G13
SE8

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Chester, Chester Airport, CT9 mi26 minSSW 810.00 miOvercast48°F37°F66%1029.5 hPa
New Haven, Tweed-New Haven Airport, CT15 mi28 minS 510.00 miOvercast44°F35°F71%1029.6 hPa
Meriden, Meriden Markham Municipal Airport, CT21 mi28 minS 810.00 miOvercast45°F36°F71%1029.4 hPa

Wind History from SNC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW14
G20
N76N8NW4CalmN4CalmCalmN3Calm--CalmCalmSE4S5S3CalmS6S8S12
G19
S12SW8
G18
S11
G17
1 day agoSE8
G14
SE7
G15
SE9
G16
4--Calm4SE5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW4NW8NW17
G29
N11
G27
NW12
G18
NW10W8
G15
2 days agoW7
G13
W7
G12
NW11
G18
NW15
G22
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G19
NW15
G24
NW12
G26
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NW9NW7NW10
G18
N7
G13
N5N4
G15
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G11
N6NW7N7CalmCalm3S7SE7
G13

Tide / Current Tables for Madison, Connecticut
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Madison
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:50 AM EST     5.12 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:39 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 06:57 AM EST     -0.10 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 08:46 AM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 01:11 PM EST     5.02 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:29 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 07:15 PM EST     -0.15 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 09:26 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
4.95.14.63.62.210.2-0.10.31.22.53.74.654.83.92.61.30.4-0.100.92.13.4

Tide / Current Tables for Duck Island, Connecticut
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Duck Island
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:37 AM EST     4.76 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:39 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 06:42 AM EST     -0.15 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 08:46 AM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 12:57 PM EST     4.67 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:28 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 07:00 PM EST     -0.13 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 09:26 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
4.64.74.131.70.70-0.10.41.42.63.74.44.74.33.32.10.90.2-0.10.212.23.4

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.