Wednesday, April25, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Madison Center, CT

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.

Sunrise 5:53AMSunset 7:43PM Wednesday April 25, 2018 7:44 PM EDT (23:44 UTC) Moonrise 3:04PMMoonset 3:52AM Illumination 81% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 11 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ330 Long Island Sound East Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 715 Pm Edt Wed Apr 25 2018
.dense fog advisory in effect until 6 am edt Thursday...
Tonight..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Areas of fog. Showers, mainly this evening. Vsby less than 1 nm.
Thu..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Areas of fog early in the morning with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Thu night..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, becoming S around 5 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Fri..SE winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Chance of rain in the morning, then rain likely in the afternoon. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Fri night..SE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, becoming sw 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Seas around 2 ft. Chance of rain in the evening, then chance of showers after midnight.
Sat..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sat night..SW winds around 10 kt, becoming nw after midnight. Seas around 2 ft in the evening, then 1 ft or less.
Sun..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Sun night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 2 ft in the evening, then 1 ft or less.
Mon..W winds around 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Mon night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft in the evening, then 1 ft or less.
ANZ300 715 Pm Edt Wed Apr 25 2018
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. Low pressure over the delmarva region will ride up across the area tonight, with a trailing cold front also passing through late. The low will move into new england on Thursday. Another low will move through on Friday, followed by a cold frontal passage late Saturday. High pressure will then be in control early to mid next week.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Madison Center, CT
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location: 41.27, -72.6     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 252308
afdokx
area forecast discussion
national weather service new york ny
708 pm edt Wed apr 25 2018

Synopsis
Low pressure over the DELMARVA region will ride up across the
area tonight, with a trailing cold front also passing through
late. The low will move into new england on Thursday. Another
low will move through on Friday, followed by a cold frontal
passage late Saturday. High pressure will then be in control
early to mid next week.

Near term until 6 am Thursday morning
Pops were increased with this update for the early evening hours
across LI and ct based on latest obs and trends. Chances for
showers across the entire area drop off soon after this, then
there should be a return of scattered to numerous showers later
tonight as the weak sfc low moves across and takes a cold front
with it, aided by lift from an accompanying negatively-tilted
mid level shortwave trough.

Meanwhile, with the pressure gradient relaxing tonight and
abundant low level moisture remaining, expect a potential for
dense fog before cold fropa, particularly across long island and
southern ct, where both narre hrrr time-lagged ensembles are
flagging highest probabilities of vsby less than 1 4sm and 1sm,
respectively. Have already issued spss for at least locally
dense fog, and with light surface winds and a loss of turbulent
mixing potential at the top of the mixed layer, may very well
need to issue an advisory for some areas within the next hour or
two.

Iso sct thunderstorms should push north through SE ct early this
evening. Winds aloft are weak, so not expecting any strong
surface gusts with these storms.

Fcst low temps tonight are on the warmer side of the mos
envelope, in the upper 40s and lower 50s.

Short term 6 am Thursday morning through Thursday night
Gusty wnw flow expected along with mostly sunny skies for the
most part after the mid level shortwave passes through. A closed
mid level low passing just to the north may help provide enough
lift for sct-bkn CU development in the afternoon, more so
inland.

With downslope flow and mixing to between 875-850 mb expect
high temps to approach 70 in NE nj and rise well into the 60s
most elsewhere.

Thu night should start mostly clear, then become mostly cloudy
overnight as another low begins to approach from the sw. Low
temps should be in the 40s and lower 50s per MOS blend.

Long term Friday through Wednesday
Models in good agreement with the closed low over the central
plains tracking eastward through the deep south on Thursday.

This then lifts north toward the region Friday ahead of the next
northern stream trough digging into the mississippi river
valley on Thursday. At the surface, associated low pressure
lifts northeast towards the region on Friday. This is a
progressive system, with what looks like a quick hit of moderate
rain (1 4 to 3 4 inch, locally 1 inch). Still uncertainty on
where the axis of the heaviest rain will be, due to differences
in track of low pressure and consequently placement of best
lift instability axis.

Models then in general agreement with partial phasing of the
southern energy and digging northern stream trough to develop
a deep trough over the great lakes into the NE us this weekend.

Some spread in intensity amplitude of this trough, but general
consensus on its axis moving through Sunday. At the surface, an
associated cold front moves through late Sat sat evening, with a
couple of weak troughs moving through Sunday. Seasonable temps
on Saturday in WAA ahead of the front, dropping back down to a
few degrees below seasonable on Sunday with cold pool and
instability cloud cover.

In its wake, deep layered ridging builds in for early next week,
with potential for unseasonable warmth by midweek as ridging
takes a bermuda position. Temps moderate to seasonable on Monday
and then above seasonable on Tuesday. Potential for the first
real warm spell of the season mid to late week, with high temps
in the 80s for nyc nj metro and interior, and well into the 70s
along the coast.

Aviation 23z Wednesday through Monday
Low pressure tracks from the mid-atlantic coast this evening to
northern maine by early Thursday afternoon.

Ifr or less through at least 06z. Light rain drizzle continues
through then. Cannot rule out some pockets of moderate rain
through midnight. Fog will continue to overspread the
terminals this evening. Expect the fog to remain over the area
until the winds become westerly (by around 08-10z).

Conditions improve toVFR from 12z-15z from W to e.

Winds become light and variable throughout early this evening
and remain so into the overnight hours. Winds become westerly
late tonight early Thursday morning (08-10z).

Ny metro enhanced aviation weather support...

detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: http:

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44039 - Central Long Island Sound 10 mi45 min SE 5.8 G 7.8 51°F 2 ft
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 16 mi45 min SE 4.1 G 6 55°F 49°F1005.8 hPa (-1.5)
NLNC3 - 8461490 - New London, CT 28 mi45 min S 4.1 G 6 52°F 45°F1006.5 hPa (-1.4)
LDLC3 - New London Ledge CT - Ledge Light Weather 28 mi35 min SSE 9.9 G 12 52°F 52°F
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 31 mi45 min NNE 2.9 G 5.1
MTKN6 - 8510560 - Montauk, NY 37 mi45 min 50°F 43°F1006 hPa (-1.8)
44017 - 23 Nautical Miles Southwest of Montauk Point, NY 49 mi55 min SSE 12 G 14 49°F 44°F11 ft1005.7 hPa (-1.9)49°F

Wind History for New Haven, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Chester, Chester Airport, CT9 mi50 minN 00.15 miFog54°F53°F100%1006.4 hPa
New Haven, Tweed-New Haven Airport, CT15 mi52 minESE 60.25 miFog55°F53°F93%1005.6 hPa
Meriden, Meriden Markham Municipal Airport, CT21 mi52 minESE 32.00 miFog/Mist56°F55°F97%1005.8 hPa

Wind History from SNC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE4CalmCalmCalmE4E65
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SE7E5E4Calm
1 day agoS4S3CalmCalmS3CalmCalmS3CalmCalmSW3SW4CalmS7
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2 days agoSW10W7--W6W5CalmCalmN4N4N4N4N3NE4E6E6CalmS7S10S9S9S7S8
G14
S11S8

Tide / Current Tables for Madison, Connecticut
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Madison
Click for Map
Wed -- 01:35 AM EDT     0.25 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 03:52 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 05:56 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:52 AM EDT     5.15 feet High Tide
Wed -- 02:07 PM EDT     0.04 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 03:04 PM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 07:41 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 08:25 PM EDT     5.31 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.10.40.30.91.934.14.95.14.73.82.71.50.500.31.12.33.64.65.35.24.53.4

Tide / Current Tables for Duck Island, Connecticut
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Duck Island
Click for Map
Wed -- 01:31 AM EDT     0.26 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 03:51 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 05:55 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:49 AM EDT     4.67 feet High Tide
Wed -- 02:00 PM EDT     0.08 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 03:04 PM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 07:40 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 08:21 PM EDT     4.80 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
10.30.30.91.72.83.84.54.74.33.42.41.30.40.10.41.22.23.34.34.84.743

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
target = "new">Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (19,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.