Monday, November20, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Guilford Center, CT

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:44AMSunset 4:28PM Monday November 20, 2017 12:23 PM EST (17:23 UTC) Moonrise 9:26AMMoonset 7:21PM Illumination 4% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 2 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ330 Long Island Sound East Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 1154 Am Est Mon Nov 20 2017
.small craft advisory in effect through this evening...
This afternoon..W winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Tonight..W winds 20 to 25 kt, becoming sw 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 3 to 5 ft, subsiding to 2 to 3 ft after midnight.
Tue..SW winds 15 to 20 kt, increasing to 20 to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Tue night..SW winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Rain likely after midnight.
Wed..W winds around 10 kt, becoming nw in the afternoon. Gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 1 to 2 ft. Rain likely, mainly in the morning.
Wed night..N winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Thu..NW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming W in the afternoon. Seas around 2 ft.
Thu night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Fri..W winds around 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft in the morning, then 1 ft or less.
Fri night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
ANZ300 1154 Am Est Mon Nov 20 2017
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. High pressure builds south of the waters today and tracks offshore on Tuesday. A cold front passes through on Wednesday followed by more high pressure for Thursday and Friday. Yet another cold front passes through over the weekend.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Guilford Center, CT
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location: 41.27, -72.67     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 201453
afdokx
area forecast discussion
national weather service new york ny
953 am est Mon nov 20 2017

Synopsis
High pressure over the carolinas this morning tracks rapidly east
over the atlantic tonight into Tuesday. A cold front passed on
Wednesday followed by high pressure. Another cold front passes
late Saturday into Sunday.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
First snow of the season at the NWS upton office - 240 am est!
forecast on track this morning with just some minor adjustments
to reflect latest observations.

Otherwise, moderately strong westerly flow prevails today with
ncep bufr model soundings from hrrrx (version 3) and rapx
(version 4) showing good consistency with the operational gfs.

Momentum transfer supports gusts of 20-25 kt this morning and
then a few kt higher early this afternoon, before winds slacken
by late afternoon.

The light rain snow showers have dissipated per all high
resolution models. Bands of strato-cumulus are around this
morning though, but expect them to dissipate to mostly sunny by
noon.

Used a blend of GFS nam and ECMWF mos, which showed little spread,
for temps.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 pm Tuesday
The high moves off the mid atlantic coast tonight as low level
flow backs to sw. Expect a mainly clear night - seasonable.

Still a fairly strong pressure gradient. Thus, do not expect
much in the way of boundary layer decoupling outside of the
normal locals. Used the warmer GFS mos and warmed it manually
outside the ny metro area. Even this may be too low.

Tuesday sees gusty ssw flow as the cold front approaches from the
west - still mostly sunny. Used the warmer ECMWF gfs mos
resulting in about 5 degrees above normal.

Long term Tuesday night through Sunday
Nwp in good agreement at h5 through the weekend with a fairly
progressive flow. The period starts with deep SW flow as an
upper trough approaches from the west Tue night. There is good
agreement that the best upper support passes N and W of the
local area on wed. Upper pattern then briefly flattens before
a weak shortwave passes through on thu, followed by another on
fri. Brief ridging again builds in for Fri night with yet
another trough for sun.

At the sfc, return flow across the area Tue night will result in
steady to slowly rising temps overnight with near normal temps
on wed. Developing low pres over the SE coast will gradually
lift up the eastern seaboard as a cold front approaches from the
west. Rain expected to move in late Tue night although there is
some uncertainty in the westward extent of the pcpn shield.

Most of the rain associated with the front appears to dry
up lift N of the area where the better upper support is, with
the remainder from the developing coastal low. Have likely pops
mostly confined to eastern areas, but this may extend westward
in later forecasts. 20 00z GFS is much further east than the
remainder of consensus so it has been discounted. Rain should
end by mid aftn Wed as the low pulls away, but it will become
gusty as the low deepens and the pres gradient tightens.

High pres then builds into the area with dry and cool weather
through Fri night. Temps expected to avg 5-10 degrees below
normal during this time. Another cold front approaches on sat
tracks across the area Sat night with a gusty NW flow expected
in strong CAA on sun.

Aviation 15z Monday through Friday
High pressure builds to the southwest today, passes to the
south, then southeast of long island tonight.

Vfr through the TAF period. Some ceilings around 5000ft through
this morning.

W-wnw winds will continue through the afternoon with gusts
around 25-30kt at most terminals. Winds will begin to back to
towards the w-wsw late this afternoon early this evening as
gusts subside. Inland terminals become light and variable
towards midnight.

Ny metro enhanced aviation weather support...

detailed information... Including hourly TAF wind component fcsts
can be found at:
http:

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 13 mi53 min NW 16 G 23 40°F 50°F1015.7 hPa
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 28 mi53 min NNW 6 G 8.9
NLNC3 - 8461490 - New London, CT 31 mi53 min NW 6 G 13 41°F 55°F1014.6 hPa
MTKN6 - 8510560 - Montauk, NY 41 mi53 min 42°F 51°F1014.6 hPa
44069 45 mi68 min W 18 G 21 41°F 47°F26°F

Wind History for New Haven, CT
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NW17
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
New Haven, Tweed-New Haven Airport, CT11 mi30 minWSW 9 G 1910.00 miMostly Cloudy43°F21°F42%1015.1 hPa
Chester, Chester Airport, CT12 mi28 minW 9 G 1710.00 miMostly Cloudy43°F15°F34%1014.2 hPa
Meriden, Meriden Markham Municipal Airport, CT19 mi30 minW 15 G 2010.00 miMostly Cloudy41°F19°F41%1014.9 hPa

Wind History from HVN (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW13
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W7W7W6W7W7W8W7W10
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5W8
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1 day agoCalmS8S10
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SW6CalmS11
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2 days agoNW13
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NW11NW8NW9N9NW4NW6W5W44NW443W3N4N3CalmCalmCalmNE3CalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Guilford Harbor, Connecticut
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Guilford Harbor
Click for Map
Mon -- 05:36 AM EST     0.51 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:45 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:25 AM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 11:54 AM EST     5.60 feet High Tide
Mon -- 04:27 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 06:08 PM EST     0.02 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:21 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
5.14.63.62.41.30.60.61.12.23.44.55.35.65.14.12.71.50.500.31.12.23.44.4

Tide / Current Tables for Branford, Branford River, Connecticut
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Branford
Click for Map
Mon -- 05:44 AM EST     0.51 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:45 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:25 AM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 12:00 PM EST     6.32 feet High Tide
Mon -- 04:27 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 06:16 PM EST     0.02 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:21 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
5.85.34.12.81.60.70.51.12.33.655.96.35.94.73.31.80.700.21.12.43.74.9

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.