Sunday, March26, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Guilford Center, CT

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 6:40AMSunset 7:11PM Sunday March 26, 2017 1:30 AM EDT (05:30 UTC) Moonrise 6:02AMMoonset 5:40PM Illumination 2% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 28 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ330 Long Island Sound East Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 1128 Pm Edt Sat Mar 25 2017
Overnight..NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 1 ft or less...then 2 to 3 ft.
Sun..E winds 10 to 15 kt...increasing to 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Chance of rain in the morning...then chance of showers in the afternoon.
Sun night..E winds 15 to 20 kt...diminishing to 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Light rain likely. Patchy fog in the evening. Areas of fog after midnight. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Mon..E winds 10 to 15 kt...becoming S in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Rain. Areas of fog in the morning. Patchy fog in the afternoon. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Mon night..S winds 5 to 10 kt...becoming sw after midnight. Seas 1 to 2 ft. Chance of rain in the evening. Patchy fog in the evening with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tue..S winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 to 2 ft.
Tue night..SW winds around 5 kt...becoming nw after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of rain.
Wed..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Thu..NW winds 10 to 15 kt...becoming N 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
ANZ300 1128 Pm Edt Sat Mar 25 2017
Synopsis for long island waters and new york harbor.. High pressure over new england will gradually slide east through the weekend...allowing a warm front to our south to approach the region Sunday night into Monday. A couple of weak frontal boundaries will be in the vicinity Monday night and Tuesday...followed by a cold front moving through during Tuesday night. High pressure then builds in for Wednesday and Thursday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Guilford Center, CT
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location: 41.27, -72.67     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 260338
afdokx
area forecast discussion
national weather service new york ny
1138 pm edt Sat mar 25 2017

Synopsis
High pressure over new england will gradually slide east
through the weekend... Keeping a cold front to our south through
Sunday... And then returning as a warm front Sunday night into
Monday. Another frontal system approaches on Tuesday and moves
across Tuesday night into Wednesday. High pressure returns
Thursday ahead of the next front on Friday.

Near term /until 6 am Sunday morning/
Based on latest guidance and temperature trends, have adjusted
rain chances down a bit towards daybreak and removed mention of
light freezing rain for all but northern portions of orange
county in the lower hudson valley. Any light freezing rain will
be spotty and brief in nature.

Northern stream trough moves east of the canadian maritimes
tonight... With shortwave ridging building towards the region.

Low level cold air damming... Under a mild w/sw flow aloft... Should
strengthen a low-level inversion over the area. This will be a
favorable set up for stratus tonight... But low-levels appear too dry
for any fog or drizzle under a NE flow. Spotty shower activity may
develop late tonight into Sunday morning across w/sw zones as mid-
level flow turns southerly with zone of theta-e advection.

Short term /6 am Sunday morning through Monday/
Models in good agreement with central plains closed low lifting
into the mid mississippi river valley tonight into
Sunday... With shortwave upper ridging moving across the area.

At the surface... New england high pressure gradually shifts to
the coast by late in the day.

A swath of scattered shower activity possible to work north
across the region during the day Sunday coincident with an
elevated warm front and corresponding zone of theta E advection.

Any shower activity should be light due to the weak forcing.

Increasing potential for shower activity late Sunday into
Sunday evening from SW to ne... As lead shortwave energy
approaches around the closed low to the west and moisture
increases in deepening SW flow. Warm front will slowly approach
from the south Sunday night... Supporting drizzle and fog in
addition to any shower activity.

Closed low opens up and crosses to the north on Monday... With
warm front likely struggling to lift north of the area as low
pressure tracks NE through southern ontario. The warm front
could stall over the area with potential for a weak low
pressure wave moving along it. The exact location of the warm
front/surface low will determine where the heaviest rain axis
will occur on Monday... But a wet day expected. There are some
hints of weak elevated instability across NW zones... So cant
rule out an embedded TSTM on Monday in this area as shortwave
energy pivots through. Rain should taper off from W to E late
Monday into Monday evening as weak low moves off to the east.

Long term /Monday night through Saturday/
A weak cold front washes out as it shifts into the region from the
nw during Monday night. Probably no showers in association with this
feature as lift weakens, however during the evening there could be
some lingering showers primarily over eastern sections in
association with an exiting shortwave. Clouds will keep overnight
lows above normal.

Models are split regarding the strength and track of a low pressure
wave that could bring the forecast area some rain on Tuesday,
primarily in the afternoon. A cold front would then pass through
late at night with the chance of more rain. Pops are capped at
chance for now. High temps on Tuesday will be above normal, and if
more sunshine occurs than currently forecast, some inland locations
west of the city could reach 70 degrees.

Wednesday and Thursday look to be dry with high pressure building
in. Cold air advection appears to be delayed enough to the point
where highs on Wednesday end up above normal, then near-normal for
Thursday. Friday could be completely dry as well, but perhaps some
rainfall sneaks into the western zones by the end of the day. High
temps again near normal. Global models then disagree with the track
of an area of low pressure that could bring rainfall on Saturday.

Have capped pops at 40% for now.

Aviation /04z Sunday through Thursday/
As a cold front settles south across the mid atlantic states
overnight, high pressure will build southward across the area
with a push of drier air.

Much of the area will experience MVFR conditions for a time
overnight withVFR conditions working in from the ne.

Amendments area likely for the timing of the improvement.

Flight cat Sunday morning uncertain. Started offVFR, then
lowered to MVFR after about 13z-14z with light rain moving in
well in advance of the warm front. Dry air through may win out,
delaying the onset of the MVFR CIGS and light rain until the
afternoon/evening, especially east of the nyc terminals.

N-ne winds around 10 kt will gradually pick up overnight, then
the direction becomes more easterly after daybreak, with a few
gusts g15-20kt possible in the afternoon at the coastal/nyc
metro terminals.

Outlook for 00z Monday through Thursday
Sunday night Lowering to ifr/lifr with light
rain/drizzle/fog ahead of an approaching warm front.

Monday Ifr/lifr to start. Conds could improve to MVFR orVFR
by late morning or afternoon if the warm front moves through.

Monday night-tue night Ifr likely, lifr possible with low
clouds/fog.

Wednesday Vfr. NW winds g20-25kt, possibly stronger.

Thursday Vfr.

Marine
Northeast flow strengthens overnight through Sunday between
high pressure to the north and the cold front to the south/low
pressure to the west. Marginal SCA gusts are possible on the
ocean waters late tonight through Sunday night. The resultant
easterly fetch should allow for ocean seas to build to 4 to 7
ft. Winds are expected to weaken and veer SE on Monday as a
warm front works into the waters... But e/se swells will likely
keep seas at SCA levels.

Ocean seas may still be up to 5 ft Monday night due to a lingering
swell. Otherwise, sub-sca conditions are expected across all waters
through at least Wednesday, however there is a chance that the swell
could still linger and bring seas to 5 ft on the ocean waters at
times during this period. Winds then increase and become more gusty
by Wednesday night with chance of 25 kt gusts mainly on the ocean
into Thursday.

Hydrology
Measurable rain chances gradually increase late Sunday through
Monday, with around a half inch to an inch accumulation overall.

No hydrologic concerns are anticipated with any periods of rain that
occur within the forecast period.

Tides/coastal flooding
A persistent easterly flow may bring water levels close to minor
thresholds across the most vulnerable western great south bay
and western LI sound locales for the Sunday night and Monday
morning high tide.

As astronomical tides rise through the week... Water levels may
flirt with minor levels in the most vulnerable spots during high
tides.

Okx watches/warnings/advisories
Ct... None.

Ny... None.

Nj... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 8 am edt Monday for anz350-353-355.

Synopsis... Jc/nv
near term... Nv/dw
short term... Nv
long term... Jc
aviation... Dw
marine... Jc/nv
hydrology... Jc/nv
tides/coastal flooding... Nv


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44039 - Central Long Island Sound 9 mi60 min NE 9.7 G 12 39°F
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 13 mi42 min NE 6 G 7 37°F 39°F1030.8 hPa
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 28 mi48 min NE 6 G 7 38°F 1029.8 hPa
NLNC3 - 8461490 - New London, CT 31 mi42 min NE 1 G 1.9 38°F 40°F1030 hPa
MTKN6 - 8510560 - Montauk, NY 41 mi42 min 38°F 39°F1030.2 hPa

Wind History for New Haven, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
New Haven, Tweed-New Haven Airport, CT11 mi37 minN 49.00 miFair34°F32°F92%1030.4 hPa
Meriden, Meriden Markham Municipal Airport, CT19 mi37 minN 310.00 miFair36°F32°F86%1030.5 hPa

Wind History from HVN (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS4N3CalmCalmN3CalmS3N3N4N8N5N9N7N12N13
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CalmN12N7N6NE4N5NE6N4
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmN4S4SW8S10SW9SW8S9S8S11SW8SW7SW9SW6CalmS3CalmCalmCalmSW6CalmCalm
2 days agoNW12
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Tide / Current Tables for Guilford Harbor, Connecticut
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Guilford Harbor
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Sun -- 04:19 AM EDT     -0.12 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 06:02 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 06:43 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 10:36 AM EDT     5.62 feet High Tide
Sun -- 04:41 PM EDT     -0.36 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 05:39 PM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 07:09 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 10:58 PM EDT     5.77 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
4.331.70.6-0.10.10.92.23.64.75.55.64.83.62.10.8-0.1-0.30.31.63.14.45.45.8

Tide / Current Tables for Branford, Branford River, Connecticut
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Branford
Click for Map
Sun -- 04:27 AM EDT     -0.12 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 06:02 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 06:44 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 10:42 AM EDT     6.35 feet High Tide
Sun -- 04:49 PM EDT     -0.36 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 05:40 PM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 07:10 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 11:04 PM EDT     6.52 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
53.62.10.8-000.92.33.95.26.16.35.64.22.61.1-0-0.30.31.63.34.866.5

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (1,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.