Sunrise 5:41 AM   Sunset 7:53 PM Moonrise 3:53 AM   Moonset 3:52 PM

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ANZ330 Long Island Sound East Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 600 Am Edt Tue Mar 30 2021
Today - E winds around 5 kt, becoming S late this morning and afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less. Tonight - S winds around 10 kt. Seas 1 to 2 ft. Wed - S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Chance of showers in the morning, then chance of rain in the afternoon. Wed night - S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm. Thu - W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Showers.Thu night - NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Fri - NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Fri night - NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Sat - W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Sat night - SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.

ANZ300 553 Am Edt Sat May 4 2024
Synopsis for the long island and connecticut coastal waters - High pressure remains in place along the new england coast into tonight. A cold front then slowly approaches from the west on Sunday, eventually tracking through the region Monday. The boundary likely stalls to our south Monday afternoon through Wednesday before returning as a warm front late in the week.

FXUS61 KOKX 040959 AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 559 AM EDT Sat May 4 2024

SYNOPSIS
High pressure remains in place along the New England coast into tonight. A cold front then slowly approaches from the west on Sunday, eventually tracking through the region Monday. The boundary likely stalls to our south Monday afternoon through Wednesday before returning as a warm front late in the week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Light winds and fewer clouds have allowed the LI Pine Barrens to drop into the mid 30s, so lowered min Ts here a few degrees to align with the obs. Otherwise, a quiet start to the weekend with temperatures in the 40s and lower 50s this morning. Forecast remains on track and previous discussion follows.

Amplified ridging aloft remains over the Eastern US today, with surface high pressure in place along the New England coast. This will maintain a persistent onshore flow through the weekend, and lead to cooler than typical temperatures for early May.

Meanwhile, a weak area of low pressure associated with a shortwave riding over the ridge passes well to the northwest through the Upper Great Lakes late in the day, sending a slow approaching frontal boundary toward the region. While a spotty shower can't be ruled out this afternoon, mainly in far western portions of the region, the day will be predominantly dry. Expect a fair amount of cloud cover, thickening into this evening as the ridge axis shifts offshore, allowing deeper moisture to advect into the area in the SW flow. This should lead to eastward expansion of shower coverage off to the west that very gradually begins to work in tonight, likely after midnight even for the farthest west locales.

With the return flow and cloud cover, temperatures this weekend run up to 10 degrees below normal, with afternoon highs in the low to mid 60s today, falling into the 40s overnight into Sunday AM.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
By Sunday, the shortwave associated with an upper low over Central Canada attempts to break down the ridging over the East Coast, with the surface front draped along the Midwest starting to make progress eastward. Guidance continues to advance this boundary quite slowly, with the fropa perhaps not occurring locally until Monday. Ahead of it, plenty of deep moisture in the column and weak lift should instigate shower activity by the mid morning, at least for the western half of the region, before spreading east by the afternoon. Showers may continue intermittently into Sunday night before tapering west to east.
QPF appears light with this activity, generally ranging from a quarter to a half inch.

The shortwave energy pushes offshore Monday with the surface boundary stalling to our south and west. Ridging builds once again across the Great Lakes in response to a large upper low over the Northern Plains and Northern Rockies. Latest guidance is less enthused about energy riding under this and interacting with the stalled boundary, which would allow a return of steadier rain chances depending on placement. Trimmed back PoPs Monday night as a result, though still not out of the question a few showers make it into Long Island from the south. After the chilly Sunday in the low to mid 50s for most, temperatures rebound on Monday in SW flow back into the 70s across the interior and areas away from maritime influence.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
Tuesday begins with high pressure to our north and a stationary front across the Mid-Atlantic. This front is expected to slowly push north towards us as a warm front through the day. Looks like most of the day will be dry, but still a low threat of showers over roughly the western half of the forecast area - closer to the deeper moisture and lift.

A ridge aloft flattens Tuesday night into Wednesday with a surface low tracking east across the northern Great Lakes. The warm front will continue to try to push into the forecast area during this time, however a synoptic onshore flow off of cold waters along with influence from low pressure over the Canadian Maritimes with both serve to hold this front to our south. Chance of showers for this period, and maybe even a rumble of thunder Weds afternoon with elevated instability pushing in from the west.

The surface low to our north then weakens with the flattening ridge aloft Weds night into Thursday with another wave of low pressure heading east - this time tracking through the southern Great Lakes/Ohio Valley. The boundary to our south doesn't make much progress as the surface low is weak along with no significant llj to help push the front northward. PoPs however increase in the afternoon into nighttime with the approach of the surface low and associated moisture and lift.

Best guess right now is that this system shifts through at some point Thursday night into Friday, but there's uncertainty with this timing. There's also the potential of yet another wave of pressure forming to our west and maintaining rain chances through all of Friday.

NBM was used for temperatures through the long term.

AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
High pressure remains in place through tonight.

VFR today into early evening. MVFR develops later in the evening, with cigs lowering to IFR overnight. A shower possible starting late this afternoon, however rainfall doesn't become likely until Sunday afternoon.

Light easterly flow or variable in direction through at least 12z, then ESE-SE winds around 10kt through the rest of the TAF period.

NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Brief MVFR cigs possible before 12z.

OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

Tonight: IFR. Chance of showers.

Sunday...MVFR/IFR. Showers likely mainly in the afternoon. SE winds G15-20kt.

Monday...MVFR/IFR in the morning, then MVFR/VFR in the afternoon.

Tuesday... VFR.

Wednesday...MVFR or lower with a chance of showers.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE
Sub-SCA conditions can be expected through the weekend with high pressure along the New England coast maintaining an easterly or southeasterly flow across the waters and speeds generally at or under 10 kt.

Winds and seas should then remain below SCA criteria through the middle of next week with a weak pressure gradient in place.

HYDROLOGY
There are currently no hydrologic concerns through next week.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
Astronomical tides will increase with the approach of a new moon Tuesday night along with the threat of minor coastal flooding each night through this period and possibly including Wednesday night as well.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

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