Wednesday, January23, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Guilford Center, CT

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:08AMSunset 4:57PM Wednesday January 23, 2019 5:10 PM EST (22:10 UTC) Moonrise 9:09PMMoonset 10:02AM Illumination 91% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ330 Long Island Sound East Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 449 Pm Est Wed Jan 23 2019
.small craft advisory in effect through late tonight...
.gale warning in effect from Thursday morning through Thursday afternoon...
Tonight..S winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 1 to 2 ft this evening, then 2 to 3 ft. Slight chance of rain early this evening, then chance of rain late this evening. Rain after midnight. Vsby 1 to 3 nm late.
Thu..S winds 25 to 30 kt, becoming sw in the afternoon. Gusts up to 40 kt. Seas building to 3 to 5 ft. Rain in the morning, then showers in the afternoon. Vsby 1 to 3 nm in the morning.
Thu night..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Fri..W winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Fri night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt, becoming W 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Sat..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas subsiding to 1 ft or less.
Sat night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of snow showers after midnight with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sun..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 1 to 2 ft.
Sun night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming W 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Mon..NW winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas around 2 ft.
Mon night..NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Chance of snow after midnight with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
ANZ300 449 Pm Est Wed Jan 23 2019
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. A cold front approaches from the west tonight, with a wave of low pressure riding along it. The front and low cross the area on Thursday, followed by high pressure building in from Thursday night. Into Saturday. A cold front will then approach from the great lakes on Sunday, and pass through Sunday night. Low pressure moving out of the plains states on Monday will approach Monday night.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Guilford Center, CT
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location: 41.27, -72.67     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 232116
afdokx
area forecast discussion
national weather service new york ny
416 pm est Wed jan 23 2019

Synopsis
A cold front approaches from the west tonight, with a wave of
low pressure riding along it. The front and low cross the area
on Thursday, followed by high pressure building in from Thursday
night. Into Saturday. A cold front will then approach from the
great lakes on Sunday, and pass through Sunday night. Low
pressure moving out of the plains states on Monday will approach
Monday night into Tuesday, then pass through along with a cold
front Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.

Near term until 6 am Thursday morning
A deep layered ridge continues to slowly exit to the east
tonight. As it does so, it will allow for a mainly light rain to
build in from west to east. However, the rain should increase in
intensity over mainly NE nj nyc lower hudson valley and parts of
sw ct late tonight in response to increasing isentropic lift.

Lows tonight should be around 15-20 degrees above normal.

Short term 6 am Thursday morning through Thursday night
A northern stream 700-500 hpa shortwave trough crosses the area
on Thursday. Associated forcing, coupled with the region being
in the right rear quadrant of a 160+ kt 300 hpa jet and a
80-105kt 950-850 hpa jet passing near over southern portions of
the area, and increasing isentropic lift, will have ample
forcing to produce moderate to locally heavy rainfall into
Thursday afternoon. In addition showalter indices are progged
down to around 2 to -2 ahead of the surface cold front mid
Thursday morning-mid Thursday afternoon, so have a slight chance
of thunder with locally heavy rainfall as well. As a result
have continued the flash flood watch for the entire cwa. Refer
to the hydrology section of the afd for details on impacts and
amounts.

In addition to the locally heavy rainfall, with that strong of a
low level jet in the vicinity of the region, even with a strong
low level inversion there is the potential for sustained winds
and possibly isolated gusts to wind advisory criteria for
coastal areas. As a result have issued a wind advisory for long
island nyc coastal S ct hudson and S westchester counties from
14-23z (so could see sustained winds of 30-35mph and or gusts
up around 50 mph). Outside the advisory area isolated gusts of
30-45mph are possible on Thursday.

Furthermore, with low level instability progged over the area
(aforementioned showalter indices around 2 to -2), there is the
potential for isolated strong convection, which could organize
itself as a fine line ahead of the cold front. If this occurs,
there is the potential for gusts to severe limits (at least 58
mph). If this occurs, this will be addressed by a severe
thunderstorm warning. This could occur anywhere in the CWA (from
w to e) from mid morning-mid afternoon on Thursday.

Highs on Thursday should be around 15-20 degrees above normal
and lows Thursday night around a few degrees above normal. With
decreasing winds through the night, wind chills will only run
around 10 degrees below the air temperature Thursday night,
and should bottom out from the mid teens-around 20 across most
of the area late Thursday night.

Long term Friday through Wednesday
Medium range guidance in general agreement on the big picture, with
a broad upper trough dominating through the weekend, then as this
trough lifts out into eastern canada, transition to eastern ridging
early mid next week as the polar vortex drops S into central canada
and the northern plains. This will lead to a gradual trend to below
normal temps into the weekend, with low temps in the teens 20s fri
night Sat night, and highs on Sat from the mid 20s to lower 30s.

Temps warm up briefly on Sunday ahead of a weak northern stream
frontal system, with the cold air returning Mon into Mon night.

Low pressure moving out of the plains states will bring another
frontal system toward the area late Mon night into tue. Partial
thicknesses and sfc temps dewpoints support idea of precip beginning
as snow, then transitioning to mixed wintry precip throughout on
tue, then to rain along the coast and possibly inland Tue afternoon
and night. A cold front passing through Tue night should bring a
lasting trend toward colder wx to end the month and going into
february as longer range guidance shows the polar vortex dropping
into the plains and eastern north america. However, if recent trends
with other weather systems hold for mid next week, would expect a
warmer scenario for Tue into Tue night, and perhaps a slower
progression of the cold front Tue night into wed.

Aviation 21z Wednesday through Monday
A frontal system will slowly approach the area through tonight,
then move through Thursday afternoon to evening.

Ceilings generally 025-035 should persist into the evening,
with the lowest ceilings expected across kswf, khpn, kewr and
kteb. MVFR ceilings will gradually move into the remainder of
the terminals late this evening. Thereafter, ifr or lower
develops overnight in steadier light rain, becoming
increasingly prevailing as rain intensity increases towards
the morning push. At least initially, a wintry mix is possible
at kswf through around 21z today.

S SW winds 10 kt will increase to 10-15 kt and with occasional gusts
to near 20 kt possible for south coastal terminals. S SW winds
increase to 15 to 25 kt towards the Thursday morning push. More
significantly, llws from SW winds of 50-60kt@ 2 kft develop for
coastal terminals by this evening, strengthening to near
60-70kt, especially from kjfk eastward by the morning push. Llws
may approach 80 kt for kisp and kgon Thursday morning.

Winds then shift to wnw and remain strong following the frontal
passage Thursday, which is expected to occur from west to east
between 17-20z. Gusty winds to near 40-50kt may be possible with the
frontal passage, along with heavy rain and low visibilities. An
isolated thunderstorm is possible with the frontal passage as well.

Conditions will gradually improve to MVFR toVFR following the
passage. Kswf may experience a brief -rasn mix following the frontal
passage.

Ny metro enhanced aviation weather support...

detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: http:

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44039 - Central Long Island Sound 9 mi56 min SSW 7.8 G 9.7 41°F 37°F1 ft
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 13 mi53 min S 5.1 G 6 37°F 35°F1020.5 hPa
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 28 mi59 min S 2.9 G 4.1 37°F 35°F1019.8 hPa
NLNC3 - 8461490 - New London, CT 31 mi53 min SSW 8 G 12 41°F 37°F1020.7 hPa
LDLC3 - New London Ledge CT - Ledge Light Weather 32 mi46 min WSW 8 G 9.9 41°F 1022.4 hPa34°F
MTKN6 - 8510560 - Montauk, NY 41 mi53 min 43°F 33°F1021 hPa

Wind History for New Haven, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
New Haven, Tweed-New Haven Airport, CT11 mi2.3 hrsSSW 910.00 miOvercast40°F28°F65%1021.8 hPa
Chester, Chester Airport, CT12 mi96 minSSW 710.00 miMostly Cloudy39°F26°F61%1021 hPa
Meriden, Meriden Markham Municipal Airport, CT19 mi2.3 hrsS 410.00 miOvercast35°F27°F72%1021.9 hPa

Wind History from HVN (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW1045NW5NW4CalmCalmCalmN3CalmN3SW9SW6SW7
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SW7SW8SW10SW6SW12SW8SW8S9
1 day agoNW11
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6W83W8NW9NW7NW10
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2 days agoNW19
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Tide / Current Tables for Sachem Head, Connecticut
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Sachem Head
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Wed -- 12:10 AM EST     5.89 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:17 AM EST     -0.73 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:09 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 09:01 AM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 12:31 PM EST     6.29 feet High Tide
Wed -- 04:55 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 06:50 PM EST     -1.02 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 08:09 PM EST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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5.95.64.42.91.30-0.7-0.50.62.13.85.36.26.25.33.720.4-0.7-1-0.412.64.2

Tide / Current Tables for Branford Harbor, Connecticut
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Branford Harbor
Click for Map
Wed -- 12:13 AM EST     6.48 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:14 AM EST     -0.80 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:10 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 09:02 AM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 12:34 PM EST     6.92 feet High Tide
Wed -- 04:56 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 06:47 PM EST     -1.12 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 08:09 PM EST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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6.56.24.93.21.4-0-0.8-0.50.62.44.25.86.86.85.84.12.20.4-0.8-1.1-0.41.12.94.6

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (17,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.