Tuesday, June27, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Old Saybrook Center, CT

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:18AMSunset 8:29PM Tuesday June 27, 2017 6:18 AM EDT (10:18 UTC) Moonrise 9:21AMMoonset 11:19PM Illumination 12% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
ANZ330 Long Island Sound East Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 348 Am Edt Tue Jun 27 2017
Today..S winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers with isolated tstms this morning. Scattered showers and tstms this afternoon.
Tonight..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Scattered showers and tstms in the evening.
Wed..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less, then around 2 ft in the afternoon.
Wed night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Thu..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming S 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less, then around 2 ft in the afternoon.
Thu night..SW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Chance of showers and tstms.
Fri..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Chance of showers and tstms at night.
Sat..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
ANZ300 348 Am Edt Tue Jun 27 2017
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. A cold front moves through the waters this evening. High pressure will then briefly follow for the middle of the week. Another frontal system approaches for the end of the week.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Old Saybrook Center, CT
   Hourly   EDIT   Help
location: 41.28, -72.35     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
      (on/off)   Help   NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
Fxus61 kokx 270939
afdokx
area forecast discussion
national weather service new york ny
539 am edt Tue jun 27 2017

Synopsis
A cold frontal passage occurs tonight. A bermuda high sets up
Wednesday night. Then a frontal system passes north of the
region Thursday through Friday night. A cold front approaches
Saturday and moves across Sunday into Sunday night. The front
may linger south of the region early next week with otherwise
weak high pressure returning.

Near term through tonight
Upr lvl low shows up on stlt E of detroit this mrng. The system
will continue to track ewd today, then drift newd tngt. The
associated cool front tracking across oh will reach the CWA tngt
and pass offshore by sunrise wed. All of the models are in good
agreement with this soln.

Radar indicates shwrs and tstms still firing from sern pa to nj.

Water vapor suggests the dynamics are sufficient for this to
continue thru the mrng and expand into the swrn portion of the
fcst area thru 12z. The nam, GFS and ECMWF all support this
scenario.

After the first round of shwrs and embedded tstms this mrng,
lapse rates steepen as the h5 trof axis approaches, and with a
120kt jet streak passing thru, isold-sct shwrs and tstms are
fcst today before ending this eve as subsidence develops.

The nearly dry adiabatic lapse rates up to h85 indicate a
potential downburst scenario with the deepest convection. In
addition, around 1500 j kg of SBCAPE progged by the NAM is
balanced by a BRN around 35 and an EL blw 30k ft could allow for
mini supercells. This would produce a hail threat, particularly
with any dry air intrusion abv h7 which the NAM predicts.

The limiting factor for TSTM development this aftn, especially
the SRN half of the cwa, is the amount of subsidence in the wake
of convection this mrng which could suppress later development.

Mainly clr in the wake of the upr trof tngt similar to the
current stlt over the midwest.

Temps were a blend of guidance which was in good agreement.

There is a mdt risk for rip current development today.

Short term Wednesday
Despite very steep low lvl lapse rates, subsidence should keep
the area dry. There could be some flat cumulus, however with
condensation pres deficits around 40, even this may be
difficult, especially away from any terrain enhancement. Despite
the cool airmass aloft, deep mixing will allow for highs to be
only a few degrees blw average. A blend of guidance was used for
this.

Long term Wednesday night through Monday
The jet lifts north of the region and stays north of the region
midweek going through much of the weekend. It starts to move farther
south into the region Sunday afternoon into Sunday night, before
lifting back north of the region early next week.

The mid and upper level flow transitions to more of a zonal flow mid
into late week and then transitions to more of a ridging pattern
going into the weekend. Shortwave approaches for second half of
weekend, presenting more of a trough pattern and SW flow aloft,
before returning to a quasi-zonal flow early next week.

High pressure moves off into the western atlantic, building
Wednesday night, and then slowly drifting farther out to sea through
Thursday night. Meanwhile, a warm front moves north of the great
lakes and into northern new england Thursday into Thursday night.

There is a trailing cold front to the west that looks to weaken
Thursday night before moving northward as a warm front Friday into
Friday night. A cold front from the west approaches Saturday and
moves across Sunday into Sunday night. Possibly this could get
delayed as shown by the ecmwf, hence the longer time window
stated for its passage.

The frontal boundary of the weakening cold front Thursday night into
Friday is forecast to be close enough to warrant a chance of a
shower or thunderstorm. The chance continues into Friday night. The
next chance of showers and thunderstorms will be this weekend.

Another chance but only slight chance of showers and thunderstorms
is forecast for early next week with frontal boundary possibly
lingering not too far away to the south of the region.

Temperatures start off near normal Wednesday night and Thursday but
then trend warmer for the rest of the forecast period. It will be
getting warmer and more humid. The temperatures will average about 3-
5 degrees above normal.

Aviation 10z Tuesday through Saturday
MainlyVFR through the TAF period. A trough of low pressure
passes across the terminals late this afternoon and evening.

Light winds should continue to back to the W by 12z at city
terminals, then gradually become southerly at 10 kt or less.

Winds veer to the SW by late afternoon and evening, 10-15 kt,
then to the w-wnw overnight around 10 kt.

Showers early this morning with brief reduced visibility to MVFR,
10-11z over nyc terminals, and 10-13z long island and southern
connecticut terminals. A shower thunderstorm is also possible
this afternoon.

Ny metro enhanced aviation weather support...

detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: http:

Weather Reporting Stations
   EDIT       (on/off)   Help   NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map
Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NLNC3 - 8461490 - New London, CT 15 mi48 min E 1 G 2.9 63°F 65°F1015.7 hPa
LDLC3 - New London Ledge CT - Ledge Light Weather 15 mi33 min ENE 2.9 G 4.1 63°F 1015.5 hPa61°F
44039 - Central Long Island Sound 19 mi48 min N 5.8 G 7.8 65°F 1 ft62°F
MTKN6 - 8510560 - Montauk, NY 26 mi48 min 66°F 66°F1016.2 hPa
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 30 mi48 min NE 6 G 7 62°F 70°F1015.8 hPa
44017 - 23 Nautical Miles Southwest of Montauk Point, NY 44 mi88 min 66°F 65°F2 ft1016.1 hPa (+0.0)66°F
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 45 mi48 min NNE 4.1 G 6 63°F 1015.3 hPa

Wind History for New London, CT
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
Last
24hr
SW2
W2
G5
NW4
G13
NE3
SW7
G11
SW7
G11
SW11
SW10
G15
SW9
G15
SW12
G16
SW7
G12
SW10
G14
SW7
G13
SW7
G12
SW5
SW4
G7
SW1
G6
W2
S3
--
NE1
NE1
NE2
NE2
1 day
ago
N2
E1
NW3
N4
S10
SW10
G13
SW10
G14
SW9
G13
SW9
G15
S7
G10
SW6
G9
SW5
G10
SW6
G9
SW6
G9
SW4
G7
SW3
W2
SW3
N2
G5
N5
N2
G6
--
W3
NW1
2 days
ago
SW5
G9
SW8
G11
N2
SW5
W2
NW5
G9
W4
G11
NW5
G14
NW10
G20
NW3
G10
NW4
G11
N3
G10
NW4
G9
NW2
W2
SW3
SW2
--
--
N1
G4
N1
--
--
N2

Airport Reports
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help   Click EDIT to display multiple airports
AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Chester, Chester Airport, CT11 mi23 minN 010.00 miMostly Cloudy61°F57°F88%1015.9 hPa
Groton / New London, Groton / New London Airport, CT16 mi22 minNE 310.00 miA Few Clouds61°F57°F90%1015.6 hPa

Wind History from SNC (wind in knots)
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
Last 24hrCalmSW4W45Calm4S8SW6
G12
6
G12
S9
G16
S11S10
G16
S95
G10
S84SW4CalmCalmSW3SW45CalmNW4
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalm34
G10
S9SW8SW9SW7CalmSW45SW5CalmS5S5SW3CalmN8
G14
N6
G12
CalmNW3Calm
2 days ago--------W43W8
G15
W9
G17
NW11
G19
W11
G18
NW8
G17
6
G16
NW6
G11
NW3W3CalmSW34NW8
G14
NW5CalmNW4CalmW3

Tide / Current Tables for Old Saybrook Point, Connecticut
   EDIT   RT Ports Option   Weekend mode (on/off)   (on/off)   Help   One Week of Data
Old Saybrook Point
Click for Map
Tue -- 01:41 AM EDT     4.10 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:18 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:08 AM EDT     -0.37 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 09:20 AM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 02:23 PM EDT     3.59 feet High Tide
Tue -- 08:23 PM EDT     0.18 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 08:26 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 11:18 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
3.444.13.72.81.80.7-0-0.4-0.20.51.42.33.13.53.532.21.30.60.20.30.71.6

Tide / Current Tables for The Race, Long Island Sound, New York Current
   EDIT      (on/off)   Help   One Week of Data
The Race
Click for Map
Tue -- 02:24 AM EDT     -0.01 knots Slack
Tue -- 05:17 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 05:31 AM EDT     -3.98 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 08:51 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 09:19 AM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 11:41 AM EDT     3.39 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 03:03 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 05:59 PM EDT     -3.44 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 08:25 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 09:11 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 11:17 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
3.22.20.7-1.1-2.8-3.8-3.9-3-1.50.323.23.32.81.70.1-1.6-3-3.4-3-1.8-0.31.42.7

Weather Map and Satellite Images
       (on/off)   Help
Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (6,6,7,8)
      (on/off)   Help

Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
   (on/off)   Help
weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Ad by Google

Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.