Wednesday, December12, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Old Saybrook Center, CT

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:05AMSunset 4:23PM Wednesday December 12, 2018 12:11 PM EST (17:11 UTC) Moonrise 11:58AMMoonset 10:17PM Illumination 26% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ330 Long Island Sound East Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 1151 Am Est Wed Dec 12 2018
This afternoon..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Tonight..NE winds around 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Thu..E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Thu night..SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Fri..SE winds around 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less, then around 2 ft in the afternoon.
Fri night..SE winds around 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Rain likely.
Sat..SE winds around 10 kt, becoming ne in the afternoon. Seas around 2 ft. Rain likely, mainly in the morning.
Sat night..N winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Chance of rain.
Sun..N winds around 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Chance of rain in the morning.
Sun night..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
ANZ300 1151 Am Est Wed Dec 12 2018
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. High pressure builds in from the north through tonight. A weak upper level disturbance passes on Thursday. A frontal system and associated low pressure will then impact the area over the weekend. Canadian high pressure builds in for early next week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Old Saybrook Center, CT
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location: 41.28, -72.35     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 121659
afdokx
area forecast discussion
national weather service new york ny
1159 am est Wed dec 12 2018

Synopsis
High pressure builds in from the north through tonight. A weak
upper level disturbance passes on Thursday. A frontal system and
associated low pressure will then impact the area over the
weekend before high pressure builds in for early next week.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
Forecast once again updated to reflect cloudier conditions
across the lower hudson valley, portions of nj, nyc, western
connecticut and long island. These clouds may continue to
advance eastward in northwest flow. There remains uncertainty on
whether the clouds will be able to clear, and with a subsidence
inversion strengthening it is more likely moisture will remain
beneath around 3000-4000 ft.

Upper level shortwave departs today while at the surface, high
pressure builds in from the north. Cold air advection behind the
front will mean a continuation of the below normal temperatures
the area has been seeing as of late. Highs will top out in the
middle 30s to near 40. Conditions will be mostly clear as
subsidence from high pressure limits cloud formation.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 pm Thursday
Conditions remain dry through tonight as surface high pressure
remains centered over southeastern canada northern new england
and an upper level ridge moves through the northeast. Low
temperatures tonight will be problematic, especially for the
outlying areas as clouds start to increase late tonight ahead of
an approaching weak upper level low over the eastern great
lakes region. Currently, the forecast is for temperatures to
drop early in the night, but as the clouds move in, temperatures
will remain steady or rise. However, if clouds move in later,
temperatures will likely drop in the outlying areas, but if the
clouds come in earlier, temperatures will remain steady or rise
earlier than is currently forecast.

The upper low will track near central or southern new york by
Thursday afternoon. There will be a slight chance for
precipitation for western areas during the late morning, with a
slight chance for the entire area by the afternoon hours.

However, the upper low will be weakening as it approaches and
only very light amounts of precipitation are expected.

As for precipitation type, precipitation could start off as all
snow for most places. Much of new york city will start off as a
rain snow mix transitioning to all rain as the boundary layer
warms up. By the afternoon, plain rain is expected across long
island, new york city, and much of northeast new jersey. The one
concern will be the possibility of freezing rain across western
passaic and interior portions of the lower hudson valley during
the middle to late afternoon time frame. Soundings indicate the
possibility of ice crystals not being present, while at the
surface it will be at or below freezing, so any precipitation
will fall as liquid and freeze on contact in these areas.

Precipitation amounts will be very light, only looking at a
couple of hundredths of an inch. If snow does accumulate, it
will be limited to north and west of new york city, and only a
couple of tenths of an inch, in other words a dusting. Again,
the one concern would be the ice across the aforementioned
interior locations. If this does end up happening, a winter
weather advisory would likely be needed. Do not have any ice
accumulation in the forecast, but even a widespread trace amount
of freezing rain would warrant an advisory. Will continue to monitor
the situation.

Long term Thursday night through Tuesday
While any lingering showers or flurries should be offshore by
Thursday night, the combination of light east-southeast flow and
lingering low level moisture will result in the chance of patchy
drizzle and or freezing drizzle generally north and west of nyc. The
best chance for any freezing drizzle appears to be across orange,
putnam, and western passaic counties, where moisture will linger the
longest and temperatures will be several degrees below freezing.

Thereafter, attention then turns to the frontal system progged to
impact the region over the weekend. Models remain in good agreement
with both the surface and upper level evolution of the system
through early Saturday morning as low pressure slowly traverses the
lower mississippi valley. Thereafter, models diverge significantly,
with the 00z GFS allowing the closed low to drift much farther
north, which has implications for the duration of precipitation over
the area through the weekend. These differences are related to how
the southern stream system interacts with numerous northern stream
shortwaves, which will become better resolved as the energy comes
onshore in the coming days.

For now, the majority of the daylight hours on Friday look to remain
dry as surface high pressure initially over the area drifts
offshore. Rain then overspreads the area Friday night and continues
into Saturday morning before beginning to taper off Saturday
afternoon. At least a chance of rain could linger into Saturday
night and Sunday, especially if the more northern low track comes to
fruition.

Dry weather then returns for the start of the next work week as high
pressure builds in behind the departing low.

Temperatures will be 5-10 degrees above normal on Friday and
Saturday ahead of the system before falling back to near to slightly
below normal for the remainder of the long terms period.

Aviation 18z Wednesday through Monday
High pressure builds today and tonight.

MainlyVFR today. SomeVFR CIGS have developed with ceilings
heights around 3000 ft. These clouds are over north central nj
and the lower hudson valley. Unsure how far east they drift but
will continue to monitor and amend as needed.

Nw winds 10-15 kt are expected, with a few gusts 15-20 kt
mainly this morning. Winds lighten later today and tonight as
they veer to the ne.

Patchy stratus may develop late tonight with local MVFR ceilings
possible.

Ny metro enhanced aviation weather support...

detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: http:

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NLNC3 - 8461490 - New London, CT 15 mi54 min N 8 G 16 38°F 47°F1018.1 hPa
LDLC3 - New London Ledge CT - Ledge Light Weather 15 mi42 min NNW 19 G 23 38°F 1009.4 hPa16°F
44039 - Central Long Island Sound 19 mi79 min NW 12 G 16 36°F 46°F2 ft
MTKN6 - 8510560 - Montauk, NY 26 mi60 min 36°F 43°F1018.3 hPa
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 30 mi54 min N 11 G 16 36°F 45°F1019.7 hPa
44017 - 23 Nautical Miles Southwest of Montauk Point, NY 44 mi82 min WNW 21 G 27 37°F 49°F4 ft1018.8 hPa (+2.2)25°F
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 45 mi60 min NNW 5.1 G 7 37°F 44°F1019.6 hPa

Wind History for New London, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Chester, Chester Airport, CT11 mi17 minNNW 12 G 1910.00 miFair37°F15°F41%1018.3 hPa
Groton / New London, Groton / New London Airport, CT16 mi16 minNNW 11 G 2410.00 miFair40°F15°F36%1018.1 hPa

Wind History from SNC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW3CalmS4CalmCalmCalm--CalmCalmCalmNW4NW9N7NW9
G14
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1 day agoNW8NE76
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NW83N3CalmN4N6CalmCalmN4N4N3N3CalmNW3NW3NW3CalmN3CalmCalmS6
2 days ago563SW6SW5CalmCalmCalmCalmW53NW3CalmN7N4N5N4N4N5NW4NW56N10N8
G16

Tide / Current Tables for Old Saybrook Point, Connecticut
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Old Saybrook Point
Click for Map
Wed -- 01:46 AM EST     2.74 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:05 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:36 AM EST     0.61 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 10:57 AM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 01:46 PM EST     3.09 feet High Tide
Wed -- 04:20 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 08:16 PM EST     0.16 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 09:17 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.32.62.72.52.11.510.70.60.91.422.633.12.82.31.610.40.20.20.61.2

Tide / Current Tables for The Race, Long Island Sound, New York Current
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The Race
Click for Map
Wed -- 02:31 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 05:27 AM EST     -2.34 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 07:04 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 08:32 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 10:56 AM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 11:21 AM EST     2.18 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 02:33 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 04:19 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 05:48 PM EST     -2.65 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 09:05 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 09:16 PM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 11:53 PM EST     2.21 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.11.40.5-0.5-1.6-2.3-2.2-1.6-0.60.51.52.121.40.6-0.5-1.6-2.4-2.6-2.2-1.2-0.111.9

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.