Wednesday, September19, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Shelton, CT

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
9/17/2018 XTide broke when 1and1 "upgraded" my server. It has been esculated. I am sorry for the problem.

Sunrise 6:36AMSunset 6:55PM Wednesday September 19, 2018 1:26 PM EDT (17:26 UTC) Moonrise 4:13PMMoonset 1:12AM Illumination 73% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ335 Long Island Sound West Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 113 Pm Edt Wed Sep 19 2018
This afternoon..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Tonight..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Thu..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Thu night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Fri..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 1 to 2 ft.
Fri night..SW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Chance of showers after midnight.
Sat..NW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming N 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 1 to 2 ft in the morning, then 1 ft or less.
Sat night..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sun..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sun night..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
ANZ300 113 Pm Edt Wed Sep 19 2018
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. High pressure builds down from the canadian maritime provinces through Thursday. A warm front passes to the northwest Thursday night, followed by a cold front crossing the tri-state late Friday night and Saturday morning. The front settles to the south through the weekend as high pressure builds to the north.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Shelton, CT
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location: 41.28, -73.09     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 191339
afdokx
area forecast discussion
national weather service new york ny
939 am edt Wed sep 19 2018

Synopsis
High pressure builds down from the canadian maritime provinces
through Thursday. A warm front passes to the northwest Thursday
night, followed by a cold front crossing the tri-state late
Friday night and Saturday morning. The front settles to the
south into early next week as high pressure builds to the north.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
Deep layered ridging builds in from the southwest today. There
should be sufficient subsidence as a result to keep things dry.

Forecast is generally on track with previous thinking to cloud
forecast today. Have made some adjustments to sky mainly for
the first half of the day based on latest Sat imagery. Unclear
how far west the stratus deck over eastern areas will make it,
which also makes the temp forecast challenging. Western areas
should be warmer than eastern and tried to reflect that in the
maxt forecast. A blend of the cmcreg (which was also the
starting point for the cloud forecast) and the bcconsraw was
used for highs, although maxt forecast has high bust potential.

There is a moderate risk for the meteorological enhancement of
rip current formation at atlantic ocean beaches today.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 pm Thursday
Deep layered ridging continues to build in from the SW through
Thursday. Continue to believe that subsidence under the
building ridging should keep things dry. However, associated
subsidence inversion should keep low clouds that moved in today
around through tonight and quite possibly into Thursday morning.

It appears that enough dry air should be transported down from
aloft (due to the subsidence under the ridge) that the clouds
should abate (to at least partly vice mostly cloudy) by around
mid morning, except for possibly over far western zones, where
elevation could help keep things mostly cloudy through the day
(harder to scourer out lo level moisture once outside of the
coastal plain and into foot hills ridge and valley regime).

For lows tonight, weighed towards warmest guidance due to cloud
cover. For now used a blended approach for highs on Thursday.

However, if the cloud cover does not dissipate, could end up 5
or so degrees cooler than forecast.

There is a moderate risk for the meteorological enhancement of
rip current formation at atlantic ocean beaches through Thursday.

Long term Thursday night through Tuesday
Upper level ridge axis shift to the east Fri morning as a
shortwave trough over the upper midwest dampens while tracking
through new england Fri night. Quasi zonal flow then remains
through the weekend with the h5 flow amplifying across the conus
early next week, although differences in timing and amplitude
are noted.

At the sfc, a warm front associated with strengthening low pres
over the upper midwest, will pass to the NW Thu night as the low
lifts into southern ontario. The low will continue to track ne
with it's attending cold front passing through late fri
night Sat morning. The best upper dynamics pass to the north so
expecting a weakening trend as it moves through, thus no more
than 30-40 pops are warranted.

How far south the front pushes remains uncertain with the flow
aloft becoming nearly parallel to it. Latest trends in the ec
push it into the mid atlantic region, while the GFS is much
closer to the local area. If the GFS ends up verifying, southern
portions of the forecast area, could see some rain Sat night
into Sun as a wave of low pressure tracks along the boundary.

Have kept the forecast dry for now. Strong canadian high pres
builds in from the N into early next week, shifting into the
canadian maritimes Mon night tue. Meanwhile, the old frontal
boundary to the south will begin to lift back to the N passing
through the local area on tue.

Temperatures vary through the period. Temps are expected to be a
few degrees above normal on Fri as the area sits in the warm
sector. Once the cold front passes, temps likely fall back to
near normal sat, below normal Sun and mon, then back to near
normal on tue.

Aviation 14z Wednesday through Sunday
High pressure builds towards the region today, and over the
area on Thursday.

Increasing clouds from the NE thru the day. Heights generally
in the 3-4k ft range, with the lowest CIGS NE of nyc. As a
result, mainlyVFR in the city, but MVFR developing elsewhere.

The clouds are expected to linger thru the entire TAF period,
with perhaps improvement to sct at times.

Winds veer to the NE today. Some gusts to 15 kt possible aft
15z, then speeds in general decrease aft 20-22z.

Ny metro enhanced aviation weather support...

detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component fcsts,
can be found at: http:

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 9 mi50 min ESE 9.9 G 11 75°F 75°F1012.3 hPa
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 10 mi38 min ENE 8.9 G 12 76°F 77°F1012.9 hPa
44039 - Central Long Island Sound 25 mi41 min ENE 9.7 G 14 72°F 74°F1 ft
44040 - Western Long Island Sound 34 mi56 min E 9.7 G 14 73°F 1 ft68°F
44069 40 mi71 min NE 9.7 G 16 73°F 75°F70°F
44022 - Execution Rocks 44 mi41 min ENE 5.8 G 7.8 74°F
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 48 mi38 min 74°F

Wind History for Bridgeport, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Bridgeport, Sikorsky Memorial Airport, CT7 mi34 minESE 1010.00 miMostly Cloudy75°F66°F76%1012.8 hPa
New Haven, Tweed-New Haven Airport, CT11 mi33 minNNE 710.00 miMostly Cloudy79°F66°F65%1012.7 hPa
Oxford, Waterbury-Oxford Airport, CT14 mi35 minNNE 710.00 miMostly Cloudy73°F66°F79%1014.8 hPa
Meriden, Meriden Markham Municipal Airport, CT21 mi33 minN 610.00 miA Few Clouds77°F63°F62%1012.9 hPa
Danbury, Danbury Municipal Airport, CT22 mi33 minNNW 810.00 miA Few Clouds77°F63°F62%1013.4 hPa

Wind History from BDR (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN8N4N7N5NE5NE4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN3N4N9N6N6NE9NE10E12E11SE10
1 day agoS5SE5SE5SE4S7S4S4S4S3SE3S5S8S9S9S16
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2 days agoSE84S5SW4S5S7S6SW9SW6SW5SW3CalmCalmS5SW6NW3CalmCalmCalmS5SW4SE4S66

Tide / Current Tables for Long Hill, Housatonic River, Connecticut
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Stratford, Housatonic River, Connecticut
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.