Wednesday, December12, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Shelton, CT

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:07AMSunset 4:25PM Wednesday December 12, 2018 3:21 AM EST (08:21 UTC) Moonrise 12:01PMMoonset 10:20PM Illumination 22% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ335 Long Island Sound West Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 1234 Am Est Wed Dec 12 2018
Overnight..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Isolated flurries.
Wed..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Wed night..N winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming ne 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less.
Thu..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of flurries in the morning.
Thu night..E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Fri..E winds around 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Fri night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Rain likely.
Sat..E winds around 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Rain likely, mainly in the morning.
Sat night..NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of rain.
Sun..N winds around 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sun night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
ANZ300 1234 Am Est Wed Dec 12 2018
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. A cold front from the great lakes moves through tonight. High pressure then builds in from the north for Wednesday into Wednesday night. A weak upper level disturbance passes on Thursday. A frontal system and associated low pressure will then impact the area over the weekend.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Shelton, CT
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location: 41.28, -73.09     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 120543
afdokx
area forecast discussion
national weather service new york ny
1243 am est Wed dec 12 2018

Synopsis
A cold front from the great lakes moves through tonight. High
pressure then builds in from the north for Wednesday into Wednesday
night. A weak upper level disturbance passes on Thursday. A
frontal system and associated low pressure will then impact the
area over the weekend. Canadian high pressure builds in for early
next week.

Near term until 6 am this morning
Radar returns are weak across the region and generally
decreasing in coverage. A stray flurry is still possible
however, so went with isolated flurries for the rest of tonight.

Previous forecast temperatures were too warm due to cloud
coverage and slightly higher wind speeds, so increased hourly
temperatures and lows overnight to reflect this. Otherwise,
forecast is on track.

Shortwave aloft and a surface cold front approach tonight with
an increase in clouds. Some mesoscale models are depicting
some weak echoes of reflectivity across eastern long island and
southeast ct later this evening. Some larger scale models do
show some very light precipitation near the south fork and to
the east over the atlantic this evening. With the forcing and
more moisture available, went with slight chance pops for snow
showers, chance of snow flurries across mainly the eastern half
of the region for this evening during the passage of the front.

Behind the front, winds will become NW and increase. The greater
mixing within the boundary layer will mitigate radiational
cooling. A blend of met and mav guidance was used for lows
tonight, showing a range from the upper teens to near 30.

Short term 6 am this morning through 6 pm Thursday
High pressure builds in Wednesday into Wednesday night from the
north with ridging aloft. The winds will eventually switch from
nw Wednesday to east flow Wednesday night. Clouds are minimal
Wednesday with the ridging and subsidence. Clouds increase
Wednesday night ahead of an approaching upper level low from the
great lakes.

Temperatures were a blend of met mav gmos for highs Wednesday
(upper 30s to lower 40s) and a blend of nam12 met mav for lows
Wednesday night (upper teens to near 30). Wednesday night lows
used a blend that kept coastal sections relatively warmer due to
the more onshore easterly flow.

Long term Thursday night through Tuesday
Right off the bat, models have trended farther south with a
northern branch closed low that dampens across the region on
Thursday as it runs over top a building east coast ridge. Have
introduced a very low chance of light snow and or flurries,
with the best chance being across the western half of the
forecast area (lower hudson valley, NE nj, nyc). GEFS and sref
plumes show the upper end of this event being a tenth or two of
an inch of snowfall. This coupled with temperatures above freezing
should result in minimal to no impacts.

There are still significant uncertainties with the frontal
system and associated low that will impact the area over the
weekend. The main feature of interest is the track of the
southern branch closed upper low over the lower mississippi
valley, which hinges on the interaction of multiple northern
branch shortwaves, both preceding and following the system.

Thermally, guidance remains in agreement that it should be an
all rain event. The GFS though which is much farther north than
the ECMWF and not as fast as the ggem with the upper low does
linger precipitation into Sunday. A marginally cold enough
airmass in the GFS scenario could result in some mixing across
the interior.

Rain from this system will likely work into the area late
Friday and continue into Saturday. The overall evolution and
timing of this system will also dictate how much of a player it
could be on Sunday, but emphasis at this time is on the first
half of the weekend.

Cold advection on the backside of the departing low Sunday into
Tuesday will bring temperatures back to seasonable levels.

Aviation 06z Wednesday through Sunday
High pres builds in from the W today.

Vfr today, although a few flurries are possibly thru 12z. Clouds
will lower late tngt, with MVFR CIGS possible aft 6z thu.

Winds NW today, then veering to the N tngt. Gusts may only be ocnl
thru 10-12z.

Outlook for 06z Thursday through Sunday
Tonight MVFR possible.

Thursday MVFR possible with light snow.

Friday Vfr MVFR to start, then sub-vfr conditions likely late in
rain.

Saturday and Sunday Ifr likely in rain.

Marine
Initial conditions on waters are below SCA criteria but behind
a cold front tonight, will have increased winds and ocean seas.

The ocean will reach SCA criteria late tonight into Wednesday,
first for the ocean west of moriches inlet and a few hours
later for the ocean east of moriches inlet. SCA for west of fire
island inlet and between fire island inlet and moriches inlet
goes from 05z-17z Wednesday and the SCA for moriches inlet to
montauk point GOES from 07z-20z Wednesday. The ocean seas of
near 5 ft last a little longer farther east on the ocean.

Conditions are forecast to subside below SCA for the ocean
Wednesday night. For non-ocean waters, below SCA conditions are
forecast through Wednesday night.

A frontal system and associated low pressure will approach the
area Friday night through Saturday. SCA may be needed by late
Friday night into Saturday. Much uncertainty into Sunday on
exact placement of this frontal system. Would generally expect
conditions to slowly improve for the latter half of the weekend,
although ocean seas may remain elevated.

Hydrology
No significant widespread liquid equivalent amounts expected
through Friday.

Potential remains for a moderate to heavy rainfall event Friday
night into Saturday with an inch or more.

Equipment
Nyc central park winds are out of service until further notice.

Loss of data is due to a severed cable. Parts are on order.

Nyc NOAA weather radio station kwo35 (162.55 mhz) will remain off
the air for an extended period of time.

Okx watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ny... None.

Nj... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until noon est today for anz353-355.

Small craft advisory until 3 pm est this afternoon for anz350.

Synopsis... Jm dw
near term... 12 jc jm
short term... Jm
long term... Dw
aviation... 12
marine... Jm dw
hydrology... Jm dw
equipment...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 9 mi39 min WNW 2.9 G 7 31°F 44°F1014.2 hPa
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 10 mi33 min NNW 8.9 G 12 32°F 46°F1014.5 hPa
44039 - Central Long Island Sound 25 mi51 min NW 18 G 23 35°F 46°F2 ft
44040 - Western Long Island Sound 34 mi91 min WNW 12 G 16 35°F 1 ft24°F
44069 40 mi51 min Calm G 0 51°F 45°F26°F
44022 - Execution Rocks 44 mi36 min W 12 G 16 42°F
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 48 mi39 min N 13 G 15 34°F 42°F1016.4 hPa

Wind History for Bridgeport, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Bridgeport, Sikorsky Memorial Airport, CT7 mi29 minNW 710.00 miOvercast32°F19°F61%1014.5 hPa
Oxford, Waterbury-Oxford Airport, CT14 mi30 minWNW 610.00 miOvercast27°F19°F75%1015.5 hPa
Meriden, Meriden Markham Municipal Airport, CT21 mi28 minNW 710.00 miMostly Cloudy29°F19°F66%1014.1 hPa
Danbury, Danbury Municipal Airport, CT22 mi28 minN 010.00 miMostly Cloudy26°F17°F69%1015.1 hPa

Wind History from BDR (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN6N6N6N7N5N5E6E5N4Calm3SE4SE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW5NW10NW5NW10NW6NW7
1 day agoN4N6CalmN3CalmN5N6N10N8N9NW10N7N7NW5N10N7N5N3N4N4N5N3N4N6
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmNW3CalmW6W4SW7SW6W6W7SW6W6W5W7W5W6W4CalmNW4NE4CalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Shelton, Housatonic River, Connecticut
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Shelton
Click for Map
Wed -- 03:46 AM EST     4.76 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:08 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 11:00 AM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 11:03 AM EST     0.67 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 03:58 PM EST     5.00 feet High Tide
Wed -- 04:23 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 09:20 PM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 11:31 PM EST     0.37 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.92.23.54.54.74.43.82.92.11.40.90.71.12.23.64.654.84.13.22.31.50.80.4

Tide / Current Tables for Stratford, Housatonic River, Connecticut
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Stratford
Click for Map
Wed -- 02:37 AM EST     5.27 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:08 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 09:20 AM EST     0.74 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 11:00 AM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 02:49 PM EST     5.54 feet High Tide
Wed -- 04:23 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 09:21 PM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 09:48 PM EST     0.41 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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34.35.15.24.73.92.91.91.20.80.91.83.14.45.35.55.14.33.22.11.20.60.41

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (3,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.