Wednesday, December12, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Groton Long Point, CT

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:04AMSunset 4:20PM Wednesday December 12, 2018 1:59 AM EST (06:59 UTC) Moonrise 11:57AMMoonset 10:15PM Illumination 22% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ237 Block Island Sound- 116 Am Est Wed Dec 12 2018
Rest of tonight..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Wed..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Wed night..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt in the evening. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Thu..E winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Thu night..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Fri..SE winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of rain.
Fri night..SE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Rain.
Sat..E winds around 10 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Rain likely.
Sat night..N winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft. A chance of rain.
Sun..N winds around 10 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft. A chance of rain.
Sun night..N winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft. A chance of rain. Seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.
ANZ200 116 Am Est Wed Dec 12 2018
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters.. Weak low pres will pass E across the waters tonight, afterwhich high pres builds S from quebec Wed and Thu. Expect ocean effect snow bands to develop under n/nw winds across the eastern massachusetts waters Wed into Wed night. The high will shift E of the waters on Fri. A storm system will approach the waters from the sw Fri night and Sat, lifting slowly across the waters Sat night and Sun. For information on possible hazardous weather beyond the 24-36 hour forecast period, please visit www.weather.gov/boston and follow the current hazards link above the map on the left.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Groton Long Point , CT
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location: 41.3, -71.99     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 120543
afdokx
area forecast discussion
national weather service new york ny
1243 am est Wed dec 12 2018

Synopsis
A cold front from the great lakes moves through tonight. High
pressure then builds in from the north for Wednesday into Wednesday
night. A weak upper level disturbance passes on Thursday. A
frontal system and associated low pressure will then impact the
area over the weekend. Canadian high pressure builds in for early
next week.

Near term until 6 am this morning
Radar returns are weak across the region and generally
decreasing in coverage. A stray flurry is still possible
however, so went with isolated flurries for the rest of tonight.

Previous forecast temperatures were too warm due to cloud
coverage and slightly higher wind speeds, so increased hourly
temperatures and lows overnight to reflect this. Otherwise,
forecast is on track.

Shortwave aloft and a surface cold front approach tonight with
an increase in clouds. Some mesoscale models are depicting
some weak echoes of reflectivity across eastern long island and
southeast ct later this evening. Some larger scale models do
show some very light precipitation near the south fork and to
the east over the atlantic this evening. With the forcing and
more moisture available, went with slight chance pops for snow
showers, chance of snow flurries across mainly the eastern half
of the region for this evening during the passage of the front.

Behind the front, winds will become NW and increase. The greater
mixing within the boundary layer will mitigate radiational
cooling. A blend of met and mav guidance was used for lows
tonight, showing a range from the upper teens to near 30.

Short term 6 am this morning through 6 pm Thursday
High pressure builds in Wednesday into Wednesday night from the
north with ridging aloft. The winds will eventually switch from
nw Wednesday to east flow Wednesday night. Clouds are minimal
Wednesday with the ridging and subsidence. Clouds increase
Wednesday night ahead of an approaching upper level low from the
great lakes.

Temperatures were a blend of met mav gmos for highs Wednesday
(upper 30s to lower 40s) and a blend of nam12 met mav for lows
Wednesday night (upper teens to near 30). Wednesday night lows
used a blend that kept coastal sections relatively warmer due to
the more onshore easterly flow.

Long term Thursday night through Tuesday
Right off the bat, models have trended farther south with a
northern branch closed low that dampens across the region on
Thursday as it runs over top a building east coast ridge. Have
introduced a very low chance of light snow and or flurries,
with the best chance being across the western half of the
forecast area (lower hudson valley, NE nj, nyc). GEFS and sref
plumes show the upper end of this event being a tenth or two of
an inch of snowfall. This coupled with temperatures above freezing
should result in minimal to no impacts.

There are still significant uncertainties with the frontal
system and associated low that will impact the area over the
weekend. The main feature of interest is the track of the
southern branch closed upper low over the lower mississippi
valley, which hinges on the interaction of multiple northern
branch shortwaves, both preceding and following the system.

Thermally, guidance remains in agreement that it should be an
all rain event. The GFS though which is much farther north than
the ECMWF and not as fast as the ggem with the upper low does
linger precipitation into Sunday. A marginally cold enough
airmass in the GFS scenario could result in some mixing across
the interior.

Rain from this system will likely work into the area late
Friday and continue into Saturday. The overall evolution and
timing of this system will also dictate how much of a player it
could be on Sunday, but emphasis at this time is on the first
half of the weekend.

Cold advection on the backside of the departing low Sunday into
Tuesday will bring temperatures back to seasonable levels.

Aviation 06z Wednesday through Sunday
High pres builds in from the W today.

Vfr today, although a few flurries are possibly thru 12z. Clouds
will lower late tngt, with MVFR CIGS possible aft 6z thu.

Winds NW today, then veering to the N tngt. Gusts may only be ocnl
thru 10-12z.

Outlook for 06z Thursday through Sunday
Tonight MVFR possible.

Thursday MVFR possible with light snow.

Friday Vfr MVFR to start, then sub-vfr conditions likely late in
rain.

Saturday and Sunday Ifr likely in rain.

Marine
Initial conditions on waters are below SCA criteria but behind
a cold front tonight, will have increased winds and ocean seas.

The ocean will reach SCA criteria late tonight into Wednesday,
first for the ocean west of moriches inlet and a few hours
later for the ocean east of moriches inlet. SCA for west of fire
island inlet and between fire island inlet and moriches inlet
goes from 05z-17z Wednesday and the SCA for moriches inlet to
montauk point GOES from 07z-20z Wednesday. The ocean seas of
near 5 ft last a little longer farther east on the ocean.

Conditions are forecast to subside below SCA for the ocean
Wednesday night. For non-ocean waters, below SCA conditions are
forecast through Wednesday night.

A frontal system and associated low pressure will approach the
area Friday night through Saturday. SCA may be needed by late
Friday night into Saturday. Much uncertainty into Sunday on
exact placement of this frontal system. Would generally expect
conditions to slowly improve for the latter half of the weekend,
although ocean seas may remain elevated.

Hydrology
No significant widespread liquid equivalent amounts expected
through Friday.

Potential remains for a moderate to heavy rainfall event Friday
night into Saturday with an inch or more.

Equipment
Nyc central park winds are out of service until further notice.

Loss of data is due to a severed cable. Parts are on order.

Nyc NOAA weather radio station kwo35 (162.55 mhz) will remain off
the air for an extended period of time.

Okx watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ny... None.

Nj... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until noon est today for anz353-355.

Small craft advisory until 3 pm est this afternoon for anz350.

Synopsis... Jm dw
near term... 12 jc jm
short term... Jm
long term... Dw
aviation... 12
marine... Jm dw
hydrology... Jm dw
equipment...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
LDLC3 - New London Ledge CT - Ledge Light Weather 5 mi29 min NNW 15 G 22 34°F 1008.6 hPa22°F
NLNC3 - 8461490 - New London, CT 7 mi41 min N 7 G 8.9 33°F 47°F1011.9 hPa
MTKN6 - 8510560 - Montauk, NY 17 mi53 min 37°F 42°F1011.5 hPa
QPTR1 - 8454049 - Quonset Point, RI 37 mi47 min N 6 G 9.9
44039 - Central Long Island Sound 37 mi59 min N 18 G 21 36°F 46°F2 ft
NWPR1 - 8452660 - Newport, RI 38 mi41 min NNE 6 G 8.9
PTCR1 - 8452951 - Potter Cove, Prudence Island, RI 42 mi53 min ENE 6 G 8 33°F 1011.7 hPa
NAXR1 - Narragansett Bay Reserve, RI 42 mi74 min NE 6 33°F 1012 hPa25°F
44017 - 23 Nautical Miles Southwest of Montauk Point, NY 42 mi69 min WNW 18 G 21 39°F 48°F4 ft1011.5 hPa (-1.9)30°F
CPTR1 - 8452944 - Conimicut Light, RI 45 mi41 min N 11 G 12 33°F 41°F1011.8 hPa
PVDR1 47 mi41 min NNW 8 G 11 33°F 1012 hPa18°F
FOXR1 - 8454000 - Providence, RI 47 mi53 min NNE 7 G 9.9 32°F 44°F1011.5 hPa
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 49 mi41 min N 11 G 19 33°F 46°F1013.7 hPa

Wind History for New London, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Groton / New London, Groton / New London Airport, CT4 mi63 minNNW 710.00 miOvercast33°F25°F72%1011.8 hPa
Westerly, Westerly State Airport, RI11 mi66 minNNW 610.00 miOvercast36°F27°F70%1011.8 hPa
Montauk, Montauk Airport, NY16 mi2.1 hrsNNW 8 mi38°F28°F68%1012.2 hPa
Block Island State Airport, RI23 mi63 minNNW 910.00 miOvercast36°F26°F67%1011.7 hPa

Wind History from GON (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN4N4N4N6N5N6N5N6NE3S6SE4E4SE4E3CalmN4N3N3N3CalmCalmN5NW6N7
1 day agoCalmN3N5N4N3N5N8N8N8N13
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2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN4CalmNW4NW4W8W8W5W8W7W8SW12SW8
G19
W13NW6NW4NW6NW3Calm

Tide / Current Tables for Noank, Mystic River entrance, Connecticut
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Noank
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Wed -- 12:08 AM EST     2.00 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:45 AM EST     0.56 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:04 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 10:56 AM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 12:08 PM EST     2.26 feet High Tide
Wed -- 04:18 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 07:20 PM EST     0.21 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 09:16 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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21.91.71.41.10.90.60.60.81.41.82.12.32.21.91.51.20.80.50.20.30.71.21.6

Tide / Current Tables for The Race, Long Island Sound, New York Current (2) (expired 1993-12-31)
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The Race
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Wed -- 02:34 AM EST     -0.01 knots Slack
Wed -- 05:59 AM EST     -2.48 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 07:04 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 09:03 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 10:56 AM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 11:38 AM EST     2.15 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 02:38 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 04:19 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 06:17 PM EST     -2.78 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 09:16 PM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 09:31 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.31.80.8-0.6-1.6-2.2-2.5-2.1-1.1-0.1122.11.60.8-0.5-1.7-2.4-2.8-2.6-1.7-0.60.51.7

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (1,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Boston, MA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.