Thursday, December13, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Groton, CT

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:04AMSunset 4:21PM Thursday December 13, 2018 4:16 AM EST (09:16 UTC) Moonrise 12:28PMMoonset 11:14PM Illumination 32% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 6 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ330 Long Island Sound East Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 349 Am Est Thu Dec 13 2018
Today..E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 1 ft or less, then around 2 ft this afternoon. Chance of snow and rain late this morning. Rain likely early this afternoon, then chance of rain late. Vsby 1 to 3 nm until late afternoon.
Tonight..E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 2 ft in the evening, then 1 ft or less.
Fri..SE winds around 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less, then around 2 ft in the afternoon.
Fri night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft in the evening, then 1 ft or less. Chance of rain in the evening, then rain likely after midnight.
Sat..SE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming ne with gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less. Rain likely, mainly in the morning.
Sat night..NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Chance of showers after midnight.
Sun..NE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Chance of rain in the morning, then chance of showers in the afternoon.
Sun night..NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Chance of showers.
Mon..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Mon night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
ANZ300 349 Am Est Thu Dec 13 2018
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. High pressure shifts offshore today as a quick moving low pressure system brings rain and snow to the region. A frontal system and associated low pressure will impact the area this weekend. High pressure returns through the middle of next week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Groton, CT
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location: 41.3, -72.08     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 130456
afdokx
area forecast discussion
national weather service new york ny
1156 pm est Wed dec 12 2018

Synopsis
High pressure builds in from the north tonight, then shifts
offshore in advance of a weak coastal low into Thursday night. An
area of low pressure will impact the region by this weekend.

High pressure builds early next week.

Near term through Thursday
Near normal temperatures expected tonight, despite arctic high
pressure building in from the north. Although the ongoing
stratocumulus across western portions of the forecast area may
eventually dissipate with the loss of diurnal heating, thicker
mid and upper level clouds are moving into the area ahead of an
approaching low pressure system, which will likely moderate the
potential loss of heat overnight. Additionally, by late night,
weak warm advection will begin to occur as the high shifts more
offshore. Although it will take some time for the antecedent dry
air mass to recover, it is possible in a weak warm advection
regime that a few snow flakes may fall prior to sunrise,
particularly across western portions of nj and the lower hudson
valley.

Expect lows in the 20s to lower 30s.

Short term Thursday night
Forecast updated based on 18z operational models and high-res
models, potential has increased for 1 to 2 tenths of an inch
qpf across western portions of the local tri- state area
Thursday morning into Thursday afternoon.

The strongest forcing for ascent will occur Thursday morning
into afternoon as vigorous upper low approaches and then moves
through the area. Low level warm advection via a developing
20-25kt S SE LLJ will allow for gradual moisture return
Thursday morning. The timing of precip onset will be critical
for snow accum potential across the coast. Model forecasts have
continued cold enough with temp profiles for all snow across the
interior, and a transition from snow to rain Thu morning along
the coast.

This scenario poses a moderate to high potential for a light
accumulating snowfall across interior portions of northeastern
new jersey, the lower hudson valley, and southwestern
connecticut Thursday morning into afternoon. 1 to 2 inches of
snowfall is likely in this area. There is a low potential for
locally 2 to 4 inches of snow, mainly across the hills terrain.

Hazardous travel conditions are likely Thursday morning into
afternoon in this area.

Along the coast, including the nyc nj metro, light snow Thursday
morning will transition to rain from southeast to northwest later
Thursday morning into early afternoon, with a low to moderate
potential for a light snow accumulation before changeover to rain. A
dusting to around an inch of snow is likely before a changeover to
rain for the nyc nj metro and northwestern long island. A
reasonable worst case scenario would be a 1 to 2 inch
accumulation across northern portions of nyc and NW li. Meanwhile,
eastern long island and southeastern connecticut may see little
to no snow accumulation due to the temps profile warming before
any precip develops.

Timing and location of heaviest precip, timing of onset of snowfall,
and timing of changeover from snow to rain are still a bit uncertain.

This makes for an overall low to moderate confidence snowfall
forecast at this time. If precip is slow to develop, the
potential for accumulating snow will decrease along the coast.

Increasing clarity will likely not be until late tonight into
early Thursday morning as precipitation begins to develop into
the region.

Temperatures will rise above freezing along the coast in the
late morning into early afternoon with onshore flow, while
temps will likely remain at or just below freezing across the
interior. There is potential for freezing drizzle late day into
evening across interior as mid- levels dry, but low- level E se
flow continues. These conditions will continue into the night,
with temperatures slightly above normal in cloudy conditions and
onshore flow.

Long term Friday through Wednesday
An area of low pressure will track across the southern states and
into the mid atlantic by this weekend. Rain will spread across the
area Friday night and through Saturday and possibly lingering into
Sunday morning. An upper level wave drops through the area Sunday
night and into Monday, resulting in showers across the area and
possibly snow showers across inland locations. Dry weather returns
as high builds in on Tuesday and remains through the middle of the
week.

Temperatures will be above normal on Friday and Saturday ahead of
the low pressure system, with highs in the upper 40s to lower 50s.

Temperatures fall back to near to slightly below normal Sunday
and through the remainder of the long term period.

Aviation 06z Thursday through Monday
High pressure moves east overnight. A weak upper disturbance
moves across the area on Thursday with light precipitation.

Vfr overnight with increasing mid levels clouds. MVFR to
possibly ifr conditions develop around or shortly after
daybreak with light snow or flurries for the nyc and lower
hudson terminals. Drier air across connecticut and long island
may impede the eastward progression until late morning early
afternoon. Coastal locations are likely to see a quick
changeover to rain as the low-levels gradually warmup.

Light and variable winds become E NE less than 10 kt overnight.

Easterly winds 10-15kt at the coast on Thursday and 5kt or less
in the interior.

Outlook for 06z Friday through Monday
Thursday night MVFR ifr with possible -fzdz at kswf.

Friday MVFR to start, then MVFR ifr conditions late in rain.

Saturday Ifr likely in rain.

Sunday and Monday MVFR possible in a chance of rain.

Marine
Winds and seas will remain below SCA levels through Friday as
high pressure builds from the north and then shifts offshore
ahead of a weak low pressure system.

As a frontal system approaches the area waters Friday night and
into Saturday, SCA conditions may be needed as winds and seas
increase. SCA level conditions remain Sunday and possibly
through the middle of the week.

Hydrology
No significant widespread liquid equivalent amounts expected
through Friday.

Rainfall amounts Friday night into Saturday will range from 0.5 to 1
inch across the region. This could result in minor flooding in poor
drainage areas, otherwise the recent dry conditions should limit any
flooding potential.

Equipment
Nyc central park winds are out of service until further notice.

Loss of data is due to a severed cable. Parts are on order.

Nyc NOAA weather radio station kwo35 (162.55 mhz) will remain off
the air for an extended period of time.

Okx watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ny... None.

Nj... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Md fig
near term... Md nv
short term... Md
long term... Fig
aviation... Dw
marine... Md fig nv
hydrology... Md fig
equipment...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
LDLC3 - New London Ledge CT - Ledge Light Weather 0 mi32 min NNE 6 G 9.9 26°F 1027.5 hPa9°F
NLNC3 - 8461490 - New London, CT 4 mi47 min NNE 1.9 G 2.9 25°F 47°F1029 hPa
MTKN6 - 8510560 - Montauk, NY 19 mi53 min 32°F 42°F1028.6 hPa
44039 - Central Long Island Sound 32 mi47 min E 14 G 18 31°F 45°F2 ft
QPTR1 - 8454049 - Quonset Point, RI 41 mi53 min NNW 5.1 G 7 25°F 40°F1030.2 hPa
NWPR1 - 8452660 - Newport, RI 42 mi53 min NNE 7 G 8 26°F 40°F1029.7 hPa
44017 - 23 Nautical Miles Southwest of Montauk Point, NY 42 mi87 min ENE 9.7 G 12 36°F 48°F3 ft1028.7 hPa (+2.9)21°F
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 44 mi47 min ENE 5.1 G 7 28°F 45°F1029 hPa
PTCR1 - 8452951 - Potter Cove, Prudence Island, RI 46 mi53 min NNE 7 G 11 25°F 1030 hPa
NAXR1 - Narragansett Bay Reserve, RI 46 mi92 min NE 12 26°F 1029 hPa14°F
CPTR1 - 8452944 - Conimicut Light, RI 48 mi47 min NNW 8 G 11 24°F 43°F1030 hPa

Wind History for New London, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Groton / New London, Groton / New London Airport, CT3 mi21 minNNE 810.00 miA Few Clouds25°F9°F50%1029 hPa
Westerly, Westerly State Airport, RI15 mi24 minNNE 410.00 miFair27°F8°F45%1029.5 hPa
Montauk, Montauk Airport, NY17 mi83 minENE 4 mi31°F17°F56%1029.2 hPa
Chester, Chester Airport, CT23 mi22 minENE 510.00 miFair25°F6°F46%1028.1 hPa

Wind History from GON (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW7NW5NW7NW8NW9NW12NW12
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1 day agoN6N5N6N5N6NE3S6SE4E4SE4E3CalmN4N3N3N3CalmCalmN5NW6N7N11NW11NW9
2 days agoN4N3N5N8N8N8N13
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NE12N10NE7N6NW4NW3CalmCalmN4N4N5NE4N4N4N4N4

Tide / Current Tables for Silver Eel Pond, Fishers Island, N.Y.
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Silver Eel Pond
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Thu -- 01:05 AM EST     1.99 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:05 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:44 AM EST     0.61 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 11:28 AM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 01:04 PM EST     2.13 feet High Tide
Thu -- 04:19 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 08:14 PM EST     0.27 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 10:14 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.921.91.71.41.20.90.70.60.91.41.822.121.81.41.10.80.50.30.40.81.3

Tide / Current Tables for The Race, Long Island Sound, New York Current
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The Race
Click for Map
Thu -- 03:17 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 06:16 AM EST     -2.24 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 07:05 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:23 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 11:28 AM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 12:10 PM EST     2.01 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 03:22 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 04:19 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 06:37 PM EST     -2.47 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 09:52 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 10:14 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.21.81.20.3-0.7-1.7-2.2-2.1-1.3-0.40.61.521.81.20.3-0.6-1.6-2.3-2.4-1.9-0.90.11.2

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (4,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Boston, MA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.