Tuesday, November20, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Fort Montgomery, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:49AMSunset 4:33PM Tuesday November 20, 2018 2:18 PM EST (19:18 UTC) Moonrise 4:28PMMoonset 4:39AM Illumination 95% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 13 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ335 Long Island Sound West Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 1203 Pm Est Tue Nov 20 2018
.small craft advisory in effect from Wednesday morning through Wednesday afternoon...
This afternoon..NW winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt late. Seas 1 ft or less.
Tonight..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 1 to 2 ft.
Wed..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 1 to 2 ft.
Wed night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Scattered flurries in the evening.
Thu..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Thu night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming N 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Seas subsiding to 1 to 2 ft.
Fri..NW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming sw in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less.
Fri night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sat..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming se in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sat night..E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Chance of rain.
ANZ300 1203 Pm Est Tue Nov 20 2018
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. Low pressure tracks along the new england coast through this evening, followed by high pressure building in from the west tonight. A strong cold front approaches from the northwest Wednesday morning, then crosses the area Wednesday afternoon and evening. Canadian high pressure builds in through Friday, then slides offshore into Saturday. A storm system approaches from the southwest late Saturday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Fort Montgomery, NY
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location: 41.3, -74.01     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 201749
afdokx
area forecast discussion
national weather service new york ny
1249 pm est Tue nov 20 2018

Synopsis
Low pressure tracks along the new england coast this afternoon,
followed by high pressure building in from the west tonight. A
strong cold front approaches from the northwest Wednesday
morning, then crosses the area Wednesday afternoon and evening.

Canadian high pressure builds in through Friday, then slides
offshore into Saturday. A series of storm system will then
impact the tri- state from late Saturday through Monday.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
Low pressure continues to move along the new england coast
through the rest of the afternoon. Much of the rain has pushed
off to the east, but there are still a few light showers
possible across eastern long island and southeast connecticut.

Winds will gradually pick up out of the NW this afternoon as the
low pulls away to the ne. MAX temperatures for the day have
likely occurred and with weak cold advection the rest day,
temperatures will be near 40 inland and the lower to middle 40s
elsewhere.

Some clearing is possible this afternoon, especially late and
from the city north and west.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 pm Wednesday
The flow aloft should be mainly zonal tonight and with dry low-
mid levels and no shortwaves progged in the flow - it will be
dry, with minimal cloud cover. Winds will be gusty, especially
around coastal sections, so this will help limit the
effectiveness of radiational cooling. Lows should be around 5-10
degrees below normal.

A northern stream trough sinks into the area Wednesday.

Increasing low-mid level moisture in the afternoon will allow
for an increase in cloud cover as the trough builds in. Across
mainly interior portions of the lower hudson valley and SW ct
there could be some mainly isolated afternoon rain snow showers
as the surface cold front reflection of this trough moves
through. Note - there is some sign that there could be negative
vorticity advection at 500 hpa Wednesday afternoon. If this
occurs, then the probability of showers is much less than
currently forecast.

Highs on Wednesday should be around 10-15 degrees below normal.

It will be breezy Wednesday afternoon, with 20-30 mph wind
gusts. This will produce wind chills in the lower-mid 20s by
late afternoon.

Long term Wednesday night through Monday
An arctic cold front moves across the tri-state Wednesday evening
with perhaps just enough moisture for scattered flurries. The
airmass to follow Wednesday night through Thursday will be record
cold for most of the climate sites with readings 20 to 25 degrees
below normal. Breezy conditions are expected for thanksgiving day
with sunny conditions but with wind chills in the teens for much of
the day. Winds diminish Thursday night and will be light on Friday
as a high pressure center shifts through the area. Continued mostly
sunny for Friday, but highs will still be in the order of 15-20
degrees below normal.

Global models still disagree regarding how much longwave troughing
occurs to our west with implications on the track and strength of
low pressure that could bring rainfall during the weekend. Best
chances for rain would appear to be Saturday night, but will leave
in chances for Saturday afternoon and Sunday to account for
uncertainty. Temperatures will rebound to near normal over the
weekend.

There's better agreement with the following system as a closed upper
low moves from the ohio river valley to the eastern great lakes
region on Monday. A primary surface low takes a similar track, and a
secondary low passes over or nearby us Monday night. With this being
7 days away, will go with a 50% chance of rain to cover all of
Monday and Monday night.

Aviation 18z Tuesday through Sunday
A wave of low pressure will track along a frontal boundary just
south of long island today. High pressure then builds in
tonight.

Vfr through the TAF period. Terminals outside of the nyc metro
will be slower to lift, but will becomeVFR by late this
afternoon.

Gusty NW winds will develop this afternoon as the
departing low deepens and high pressure builds from the west.

Winds could gust 20 to 25 mph. Gusts will subside after sunset.

Ny metro enhanced aviation weather support...

detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component fcsts,
can be found at:
http:

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44022 - Execution Rocks 32 mi34 min W 14 G 19 50°F
44040 - Western Long Island Sound 33 mi34 min NW 14 G 21 45°F 1 ft38°F
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 36 mi31 min 50°F
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 41 mi31 min 45°F 50°F1011.3 hPa
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 45 mi31 min NW 17 G 20 45°F 1011.8 hPa
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 45 mi37 min NW 4.1 G 8 42°F 51°F1009.7 hPa
MHRN6 46 mi31 min W 9.9 G 16
BGNN4 - 8519483 - Bergen Point West Reach, NJ 46 mi31 min 46°F 48°F1011.5 hPa
TKPN6 49 mi37 min N 2.9 G 4.1 37°F 40°F36°F

Wind History for Kings Point, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Newburgh / Stewart, NY15 mi34 minN 06.00 miFog/Mist37°F37°F100%1011.5 hPa
Montgomery, Orange County Airport, NY20 mi25 minW 710.00 miLight Rain42°F36°F79%1011.2 hPa
White Plains - Westchester County Airport, NY22 mi83 minNW 1110.00 miMostly Cloudy42°F36°F79%1010.7 hPa
Poughkeepsie, Dutchess County Airport, NY24 mi26 minNNW 410.00 miOvercast38°F33°F83%1011.2 hPa

Wind History from SWF (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalm44444CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm4CalmCalm55Calm
1 day ago4444CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm--CalmCalmCalmNW5W4CalmCalm
2 days agoW12W12NW5W7NW6W7NW8NW10NW7NW10CalmW6W6W6CalmNW6CalmCalm4444CalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Peekskill, Hudson River, New York (2)
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Peekskill
Click for Map
Tue -- 02:41 AM EST     0.09 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 03:38 AM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 06:49 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:16 AM EST     3.10 feet High Tide
Tue -- 03:15 PM EST     0.16 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 03:27 PM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 04:32 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 08:37 PM EST     2.92 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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10.50.20.10.61.62.32.83.132.72.11.40.90.40.20.31.11.92.52.82.92.62.1

Tide / Current Tables for Haverstraw (Hudson River), New York Current
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Haverstraw (Hudson River)
Click for Map
Tue -- 01:30 AM EST     -1.24 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 03:38 AM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 05:11 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 06:49 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 07:26 AM EST     0.90 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 10:27 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 02:01 PM EST     -1.30 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 03:27 PM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 04:32 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 05:49 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 07:50 PM EST     0.77 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 10:38 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-1-1.2-1.2-0.9-0.6-0.10.50.90.90.70.3-0.3-0.8-1.1-1.3-1.2-0.9-0.50.10.60.80.60.3-0.2

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.