Saturday, February24, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Watch Hill, RI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:26AMSunset 5:34PM Saturday February 24, 2018 10:56 PM EST (03:56 UTC) Moonrise 12:53PMMoonset 2:47AM Illumination 74% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ237 Block Island Sound- 916 Pm Est Sat Feb 24 2018
.gale warning in effect from 7 am est Sunday through Sunday afternoon...
Overnight..N winds around 5 kt, becoming E 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Rain.
Sun..E winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 35 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft. Rain. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Sun night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Mon..W winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Mon night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Tue..NW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming W in the afternoon. Gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Tue night..SW winds around 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Wed..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Wed night..W winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Thu..E winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Rain likely.
Thu night..E winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft. Rain likely. Seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.
ANZ200 916 Pm Est Sat Feb 24 2018
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters.. Warm frontal boundary lifting N into the waters through Sunday along which a wave of low pressure along the coast is expected to develop. As such, E gales Sunday shifting W and weakening as the low passes. Quiet through the early week period, W winds, with an eye on the late week and the potential for a deep, offshore storm to develop. For information on possible hazardous weather beyond the 24-36 hour forecast period, please visit www.weather.gov/boston and follow the current hazards link above the map on the left.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Watch Hill, RI
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location: 41.31, -71.86     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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Fxus61 kbox 250226
afdbox
area forecast discussion
national weather service taunton ma
926 pm est Sat feb 24 2018

Synopsis
A fast moving low pressure system will bring a mixture
rain... Sleet and freezing rain early Sunday morning into Sunday
afternoon. The bulk of the sleet and freezing rain will be
found across the high terrain and areas north of the
massachusetts turnpike. High pressure will bring mainly dry and
mild temperatures Monday through Wednesday. There is the
potential for a strong coastal storm late next week that if
impacts our region may bring significant rain and or
snow... Strong winds on the coast along with potential coastal
flooding. This storm is far from a certainty at this point... But
given the ingredients in place does bear watching.

Near term until 2 am Sunday morning
925 pm update...

band of showers has shifted south to the islands and immediate
south coast. These showers will dissipate as they move to the
south next few hours.

Otherwise... Dry weather prevails into the early morning, with
next round of precip overspreading the region between 3 and 7 am
from SW to ne. Canadian high pressure will allow low level colder
air to drain south into the region ahead of the main
precipitation shield as temps in the 950-925 mb layer fall to -1
to -5c across sne. This will set the stage for a wintry
mix... Especially north of the ma turnpike and high terrain where
the bulk of the sleet freezing rain is anticipated.

Short term 2 am Sunday morning through 6 pm Sunday
*** mixed wintry precipitation early - late day Sunday ***
overview...

moisture flux shifts from w-e to mainly sw-ne late this evening
into early Sun am, which allows pwats to reach near 1.00 inches
by 15z sun, which is nearly 3 std deviations above normal. This
should provide plenty of moisture for overrunning ahead of a
stalling warm front. Meanwhile confluent longwave pattern
undergoes a gradual shift thanks to deepening wave upstream, the
result is actually a modest building ridge through the mid
lvls, which provides the needed mid lvl warming while temps
below h92 remain below -2c through about 15z. At the same time,
it enhances the inverted ridging, as mass fields continue to
highlight strong cold air damming signal, which should yield a
shift from snow to sleet before a change to all rain as the warm
layer fills and lowers closer to the sfc. Isallobaric flow
remains strong northerly through at least 21z. As is often the
case, guidance looks to be a bit too warm at the sfc for this
signal. Leaned most heavily on the 12z WRF hrrr with this update
particularly for 2m temps.

Icing...

warm layer looks to move in between h85 and h6 while the layer
below to the sfc starts between -2c and -4c. This, especially
in the lower terrain, suggests more of a sleet profile, so have
leaned more heavily on sleet for wx type with this update. In
fact could see after a quick change from sn at onset,
accumulating sleet. Given the high pwats and lift, would not be
shocked if up to an inch of pure sleet is observed especially n
of the mass pike. So will expand winter wx advisories into ne
ma, where this is also possible. Elsewhere, mainly closer to the
se coast and ri, 2m temps should warm sufficiently above
freezing for mainly straight ra. Meanwhile higher terrain, as
the warm air fills and descends will change to ra with marginal
2m temps near or just below freezing. Two mitigating factors for
ice accretion are these marginal ambient temps and the fact
that warm conditions leading up to the event should keep actual
sfc temps above freezing. In either case, whether icing due to
sleet or freezing rain, travel would be hazardous with the risk
for scattered power outages possible. One area of concern,
especially since as mentioned above, guidance is not handling
the damming signal well, are the deeper valleys such as the ct
valley, which could remain colder longer thanks to N ageostropic
flow.

Timing...

precip onset (as ra mainly for S ct ri and SE ma, mix of
snow sleet elsewhere) occurs between 2am and 5am from sw-ne,
such that precipitation should be occurring everywhere by 6am.

The gradual transition from s-n from mixed wintry precip will
then occur between 6am and noon, with areas of the worcester
hills and berkshires remaining freezing rain until the
precipitation ends between 2pm and 6pm tomorrow.

Uncertainty...

given this is a mixed precipitation event and temps may hover
very close to the freezing mark through the daytime hours on
sun, areas where freezing precip, and accumulation of ice sleet
or snow are likely to change somewhat, even as the event is
ongoing. In any case, expanding the winter weather advisories
due to the risk for hazardous travel conditions under ice or
sleet, and keeping the rest where they currently reside.

Long term Sunday night through Saturday
Highlights...

* patchy black ice poss late Sun night early Mon ESP across interior
* mainly dry mild with above normal temps Mon Tue and especially wed
* strong long duration coastal storm "possible" sometime Thu into
sat but not a lock and timing ptypes potential impacts uncertain
details...

Sunday night...

any lingering light rain drizzle along the coast should be coming to
an end early Sunday evening as wave of low pressure exits the
region. Low clouds will be slow to dissipate... But should see at
least partial clearing after midnight. Many locations should see low
temps drop into the 20s... To the lower 30s. This coupled with light
winds may result in the risk for some patchy black ice
forming... Especially across the interior late Sun night into the
early Mon am commute.

Monday through Wednesday...

westerly flow aloft with above normal height fields are anticipated
Monday through Wednesday. This will combined with a surface high
pressure system to our south... Resulting in mainly dry mild weather
with above normal temperatures. High temperatures should mainly be
in the upper 40s to the middle 50s Mon tue... But as the high shifts
off the coast may see high temps reach well into the 50s to near 60
by wed.

Thursday through Saturday...

a strong long duration coastal storm is possible late next
week... But considering the time frame there is significant
uncertainty if this transpires. We will be watching a couple pieces
of shortwave energy. The first will be from the southwest u.S. With
a second piece of northern stream energy. Timing strength of this
shortwave energy means everything and obviously uncertain in this
time frame. The guidance does show the potential for a rather strong
storm to develop.

As mentioned above... While plenty of uncertainty exists with this
"potential" strong coastal storm there are some ingredients in place
that we have not seen in quite sometime. The first is a very strong
-nao depicted to be 4-5 standard deviations above normal over this
time range by the GEFS eps. In addition... The GEFS anomalies are
showing an upper level ridge 3+ standard deviations above normal
across greenland.

A very strong -nao greenland block often prevents a storm from
cutting to our west but can force them eastward and lead to the
development of strong coastal storms. However... Timing still has to
be ideal and there certainly is a risk that the system gets
suppressed to our south. Nonetheless... It is also possible we see a
long duration strong coastal storm late this week. Ptypes would be
quite uncertain at this point... But a significant precipitation event
would be possible in the form of rain and or snow. Strong winds
would also be a concern on the coastal plain... Bringing the potential for
coastal flooding along the eastern ma coast given rather high
astronomical tides.

In a nutshell... It is too early to say much more other than the
"potential" for a significant coastal storm late next week but it is
far from a lock given the time range. Nonetheless... Given the
ingredients in place it certainly bears watching.

Aviation 02z Sunday through Thursday
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Sunday ...

through 06z tonight... High confidence.VFR. Scattered showers
over the islands and immediate south coast until 03-04z.

After 06z through Sunday... Moderate confidence.

Precipitation shield begins to build sw-ne mainly between 08z
and 12z. Ptype initially mainly sleet north of ma turnpike and
rain mixed with sleet south of the pike. A bit of snow is
possible at the onset mainly north of route 2. Otherwise, ptype
changing to all rain later Sun am into the early afternoon. The
exception will be the higher terrain... Where an extended period
of freezing rain may occur.

Kbos terminal... Moderate confidence, mainly due timing
uncertainty.VFR overnight, then gradual reduction to ifr as
precipitation moves over the terminal. Will likely see some pl
mixing in with the ra for the first 2-4 hrs before a change to
just rain until the precipitation ends by late Sun afternoon.

Wind gusts during the afternoon tomorrow 20-25 kt out of the e.

Kbdl terminal... Moderate confidence, mainly due timing
uncertainty. Precip starts toward daybreak Sun probably as a
period of sleet that will transition to rain Sun morning. Timing
of this in TAF may change. Mainly ifr once precipitation
begins. Low risk of fzra, but temperatures may not be cold
enough for much ice accretion and expected surface temperatures.

Outlook Sunday night through Thursday ... Moderate to high
confidence.

Sunday night: improvement from west to east overnight... But some
ground fog may develop resulting in localized MVFR ifr
continuing through daybreak Monday.

Monday through Wednesday: mainlyVFR
Thursday: highly dependent on track timing of potential coastal
storm but conditions may deteriorate to MVFR ifr thresholds in
rain and or snow sometime Thu or Thu night.

Marine
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Sunday ...

overnight... High confidence.

Light rain on the southern waters this evening. Winds will
shift from w-nw to NE by the early morning. Rain overspread
during the early am hours. Otherwise, winds seas mainly below
headline criteria until early Sun morning.

Early Sun morning into Sun evening... High confidence.

Marginal e-ne gales on the waters between 12z and 21z from w-e.

Small craft advisory conditions on the near shore waters. These
small craft conditions linger into the overnight as seas will
build to 8-10 ft on the SE outer waters by late afternoon, and
will take some time to diminish thereafter. Otherwise, rain fog
leads to reduced vsbys.

Outlook Sunday night through Thursday ... Moderate to high
confidence.

Sunday night: winds diminish below small craft headlines Sunday
evening... But lingering swell will keep seas above thresholds
across the outer- waters into the overnight hours.

Monday: winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft.

Monday night: low risk for small craft advisory winds with
gusts up to 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft.

Tuesday: winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.

Tuesday night: winds less than 25 kt.

Wednesday: winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching
5 ft.

Thursday: highly dependent on timing track of potential coastal
storm. However... Increasing ene winds and building seas will
become a concern sometime Thu and especially Thu night.

Tides coastal flooding
Thursday through Saturday...

the potential for coastal flooding and beach erosion exists on
several high tide cycles late next week. This will depend upon
the development of a potential strong long duration coastal
storm. While it is too early to give more specific
information... High astronomical tides and the potential for a
strong coastal storm will need to be watched especially along
the eastern ma coast.

Box watches warnings advisories
Ct... Winter weather advisory from 1 am to 1 pm est Sunday for
ctz002>004.

Ma... Winter weather advisory from 1 am to 1 pm est Sunday for
maz002>012-014-026.

Ri... None.

Marine... Gale warning from 10 am to 4 pm est Sunday for anz231>234-250.

Small craft advisory from 6 am to 5 pm est Sunday for anz230.

Small craft advisory from 6 am to 1 pm est Sunday for anz236.

Gale warning from 7 am to 1 pm est Sunday for anz235-237.

Small craft advisory from 6 am to 7 pm est Sunday for anz251.

Gale warning from 7 am to 4 pm est Sunday for anz254>256.

Synopsis... Frank doody
near term... Kjc frank
short term... Doody
long term... Frank
aviation... Frank doody
marine... Frank doody
tides coastal flooding...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NLNC3 - 8461490 - New London, CT 13 mi39 min N 2.9 G 6 43°F 42°F1023.3 hPa
MTKN6 - 8510560 - Montauk, NY 19 mi39 min 42°F 40°F1023.4 hPa
QPTR1 - 8454049 - Quonset Point, RI 31 mi45 min N 4.1 G 5.1 43°F 42°F1024.1 hPa
NWPR1 - 8452660 - Newport, RI 31 mi39 min NNE 6 G 7 43°F 39°F1023.5 hPa
PTCR1 - 8452951 - Potter Cove, Prudence Island, RI 36 mi45 min ENE 4.1 G 5.1 42°F 1023.8 hPa
NAXR1 - Narragansett Bay Reserve, RI 36 mi72 min Calm 42°F 1002 hPa42°F
CPTR1 - 8452944 - Conimicut Light, RI 39 mi39 min ENE 4.1 G 6 42°F 42°F1023.8 hPa
PVDR1 41 mi39 min ENE 4.1 G 6 44°F 1024.2 hPa44°F
FOXR1 - 8454000 - Providence, RI 42 mi45 min E 4.1 G 7 44°F 40°F1023.8 hPa
44017 - 23 Nautical Miles Southwest of Montauk Point, NY 44 mi67 min N 7.8 G 9.7 43°F 43°F2 ft1023.7 hPa (+1.6)42°F
44039 - Central Long Island Sound 44 mi72 min NNW 3.9 G 3.9 40°F
BUZM3 - Buzzards Bay, MA 44 mi57 min NE 9.9 G 11 41°F 1024.2 hPa (+1.3)
44097 - Block Island, RI (154) 45 mi44 min 41°F2 ft
BLTM3 - 8447387 - Borden Flats Light at Fall River, MA 45 mi39 min NE 6 G 7 44°F 1023.3 hPa
FRXM3 45 mi39 min 44°F 43°F
FRVM3 - 8447386 - Fall River, MA 46 mi45 min 45°F 40°F1024.5 hPa

Wind History for New London, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Westerly, Westerly State Airport, RI4 mi64 minN 310.00 miOvercast44°F42°F93%1023.5 hPa
Groton / New London, Groton / New London Airport, CT10 mi61 minN 510.00 miOvercast44°F39°F85%1023.1 hPa
Montauk, Montauk Airport, NY16 mi63 minN 3 mi43°F39°F89%1024 hPa
Block Island State Airport, RI17 mi61 minN 310.00 miLight Rain41°F41°F100%1024 hPa

Wind History from WST (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW4Calm6W8SW10W8W4SW4SW5SW4SW5SW4SW6NW74SW83W3CalmCalmN6CalmNW4N3
1 day agoN4NE3NE4NE4NE3CalmN4CalmNE4NE5NE6E11E12E8
G17
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2 days agoW4CalmCalmN5N5N8N7N7E4NE5NE63NE8NE7NE8NE11NE7NE8N6N4NE3NE5NE53

Tide / Current Tables for Watch Hill Point, Rhode Island
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Watch Hill Point
Click for Map
Sat -- 01:47 AM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 02:56 AM EST     2.62 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:29 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 09:18 AM EST     0.18 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 11:53 AM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 03:27 PM EST     2.20 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:32 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 09:22 PM EST     0.06 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.422.42.62.41.91.20.70.30.20.20.40.81.31.82.22.11.81.20.60.20.10.10.3

Tide / Current Tables for The Race, Long Island Sound, New York Current
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The Race
Click for Map
Sat -- 01:48 AM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 02:29 AM EST     2.64 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 05:48 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 06:30 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 09:04 AM EST     -3.02 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 11:54 AM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 12:26 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 03:11 PM EST     2.39 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 05:33 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 06:31 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 09:32 PM EST     -2.62 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.71.82.52.51.90.9-0.2-1.5-2.6-3-2.7-1.8-0.60.71.82.42.21.50.6-0.6-1.8-2.5-2.5-1.8

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
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GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Boston, MA (22,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Boston, MA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.