Friday, February22, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Watch Hill, RI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:30AMSunset 5:30PM Friday February 22, 2019 2:29 PM EST (19:29 UTC) Moonrise 10:19PMMoonset 9:35AM Illumination 88% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ237 Block Island Sound- 116 Pm Est Fri Feb 22 2019
This afternoon..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Tonight..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Sat..NE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming se in the afternoon. Seas around 2 ft.
Sat night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Rain.
Sun..SE winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming sw in the afternoon. Gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Rain.
Sun night..W winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt, increasing to 25 to 30 kt with gusts up to 45 kt after midnight. Seas 6 to 9 ft.
Mon..W winds 25 to 30 kt with gusts up to 45 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft.
Mon night..NW winds 25 to 30 kt with gusts up to 45 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft. A chance of light freezing spray.
Tue..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. A chance of light freezing spray.
Tue night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.
ANZ200 116 Pm Est Fri Feb 22 2019
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters.. High pres builds over the waters through Sat. A warm front will approach the waters on Sun, bringing widespread rain and strong s-se winds across the waters. A cold front passes by Mon. Another high pres approaches from the W Tue. For information on possible hazardous weather beyond the 24-36 hour forecast period, please visit www.weather.gov/boston and follow the current hazards link above the map on the left.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Watch Hill, RI
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location: 41.31, -71.86     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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Fxus61 kbox 221757
afdbox
area forecast discussion
national weather service boston norton ma
1257 pm est Fri feb 22 2019

Synopsis
High pressure over the great lakes builds over new england
through tonight, then moves to our east Saturday. This will
bring a period of drier air and seasonably cool temperatures.

Wintry mess for Saturday night into Sunday. Windy Sunday night
through Tuesday, especially Monday when wind headlines are
possible. Colder than average Wednesday onward while monitoring
for any storm activity.

Near term through tonight
1 pm update...

morning clouds have eroded with abundant sunshine now across all
of ri ct and ma with just some clouds leftover across western
ma. Very pleasant conditions for late february with full sun,
temps in the upper 30s and lower 40s along with light nnw winds.

Enjoy. Earlier discussion below.

================================================================
short wave trough exiting maine this morning providing
subsidence in its wake across new england. Thus clouds clearing
from the northeast. In addition CAA will wane today and will
result in CAA strato-cu dissipating with time. Thus will see
decreasing clouds as the day progresses with just high clouds
filtering the sunshine this afternoon along with patchy strato-
cu leftover. Otherwise a seasonable late feb day with highs in
the upper 30s to lower 40s.

Short term Saturday
High pressure moves over southern new england tonight, then
offshore Saturday. Light winds will lead to strong radiational
cooling tonight, resulting in below normal temperatures. List s
to SW winds develop Saturday as this high pressure moves
offshore. This should let MAX temperatures recover to near
normal levels. Still thinking dry weather persists through
Saturday, other than some increasing clouds during the day.

Long term Saturday night through Thursday
* highlights ...

- another round of wintry weather early Saturday night into
Sunday
- very windy Sunday night through Tuesday, potentially damaging
Monday
- potential for some wet weather mid week
* overview ...

the big picture pattern of deep western trough and subtropical
ridge over the bahamas finally breaks down with the onset of our
messy winter weather system this weekend. Beyond Sunday we'll
see a mostly zonal flow pattern dominating much of the conus
with periodic weak shortwaves moving through. The strongest
wave best chance of us seeing precipitation comes on or around
Wednesday but confidence is low at this time range.

Saturday night and Sunday...

deja vu with this next kitchen sink weather system and a very
similar setup to what we've seen many times this winter, most
recently this last week. By late Saturday a ~992 mb low sits
over the midwest, ejecting northeast toward the great lakes
while the attendant mid level shortwave begins to phase with
another shortwave moving over the dakotas. Again we see the
parent low moving well to our northwest allowing warm air aloft
to be pulled north ahead of the cold front changing any brief
snow at the onset quickly to sleet and freezing rain. Lots of
moisture with this system (seeing pwats approach 1.25") and
plenty of lift via isentropic ascent over the cold dome
initially and good low level speed convergence via 45-55 kt llj.

The big question remains just how long northern drainage flow
from the high situated to our northeast can keep surface
temperatures below freezing before warm southerly flow turns
everything to rain. Now getting into range of higher res models
which indicate potential for a prolonged freezing rain event,
especially for the high terrain of interior ma ct and the tough
to scour out valleys. Current thinking is a coating to less than
an inch of snow with up to a quarter inch of ice to follow.

Fortunately road traffic will be low given it falls on a Sunday
morning, limiting impact compared to a workday. Temps warm above
freezing for all rain by mid-late morning. Latest model trends
have been a bit faster with the exit of the system and more
quickly bringing the dry slot overhead; trended drier late
Sunday but keeping some rain chances through the day. Persistent
southerly flow will bring above average temperatures in the mid
to upper 40s.

Sunday night through Tuesday...

the takeaway for this forecast period is going to be the very
gusty potentially damaging winds peaking on Monday. A cold front
drops through Sunday night ushering in a drier and colder
airmass to start the week with highs dropping 5-10f each day,
into the low 40s Monday and 30s on Tuesday. We'll be sandwiched
between a strengthening low exiting to our northeast and
incoming high pressure under a very tight surface pressure
gradient leading to sustained winds of 20-30 kts on Monday.

Strong CAA also promotes some very efficient mixing of the bl.

Model soundings indicate mixing up to near 700 mb, tapping into
a strong LLJ with potential for wind gusts at the surface
approaching 45-50 kts, highest along the coast and over higher
terrain. Winds pick up Sunday night, peak Monday afternoon, and
ramp down through Tuesday morning. A high wind warning may be
merited.

Wednesday and Thursday...

zonal mid level flow remains through the period but models
indicate potential for our next shortwave to dip south from
canada around Wednesday. Plenty of disagreement on how amplified
it becomes and whether it can tap into enough moisture to bring
appreciable wet weather or not. Holding on to chance pops mid
week but confidence is low for now.

Aviation 18z Friday through Wednesday
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Saturday ... High confidence.

1 pm update ...

today ...

vfr, dry weather and light nnw winds.

Tonight ...

vfr, dry weather and winds becoming calm.

Saturday ...

vfr and dry weather continues. Light and variable winds becoming
light onshore during the afternoon along the coast.

Saturday night ...

vfr and dry weather thru the evening, then MVFR and precip after
midnight from west to east. Ptype, rain except freezing rain
across the interior. Llws likely toward 12z Sunday morning along
the south coast including CAPE cod and islands.

Kbos terminal... High confidence in taf.

Kbdl terminal... High confidence in taf.

Outlook Sunday through Tuesday ...

Sunday: MVFR ifr conditions possible. Windy with gusts up to
35 kt. Ra, fzra.

Sunday night:VFR. Windy with gusts up to 35 kt. Chance sn.

Monday through Monday night:VFR. Strong winds with gusts up to
45 kt.

Tuesday:VFR. Windy with local gusts up to 30 kt.

Marine
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Saturday ... High confidence.

High pressure builds over the coastal waters through Saturday.

Gusty west to northwest winds and seas diminish later today.

Outlook Saturday night through Tuesday ...

Saturday: winds less than 25 kt.

Saturday night: winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching
5 ft. Rain, freezing rain, chance of snow.

Sunday: moderate risk for small craft advisory winds with gusts
up to 30 kt. Rough seas up to 9 ft. Rain.

Sunday night: low risk for gale force winds with gusts up to
40 kt. Rough seas up to 14 ft.

Monday: low risk for storm force winds with gusts up to 50 kt.

Rough seas up to 15 ft.

Monday night: moderate risk for gale force winds with gusts up
to 45 kt. Rough seas up to 14 ft.

Tuesday: moderate risk for small craft advisory winds with
gusts up to 30 kt. Areas of rough seas.

Box watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ma... None.

Ri... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Belk bw
near term... Nocera
short term... Belk
long term... Bw
aviation... Nocera bw
marine... Belk bw


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
LDLC3 - New London Ledge CT - Ledge Light Weather 12 mi49 min N 11 G 15 43°F 1025 hPa21°F
NLNC3 - 8461490 - New London, CT 13 mi47 min N 4.1 G 7 44°F 39°F1025.5 hPa
MTKN6 - 8510560 - Montauk, NY 19 mi41 min 1025.6 hPa
NWPR1 - 8452660 - Newport, RI 31 mi47 min NNE 8 G 11 42°F 37°F1025.2 hPa
QPTR1 - 8454049 - Quonset Point, RI 31 mi47 min NW 6 G 11 44°F 39°F1025.3 hPa
NAXR1 - Narragansett Bay Reserve, RI 36 mi104 min NE 5.1 44°F 1026 hPa24°F
PTCR1 - 8452951 - Potter Cove, Prudence Island, RI 36 mi47 min E 2.9 G 5.1 44°F 1025.3 hPa
CPTR1 - 8452944 - Conimicut Light, RI 39 mi41 min N 6 G 8.9 45°F 39°F1025.2 hPa
PVDR1 41 mi41 min NNW 6 G 8 1025.1 hPa
FOXR1 - 8454000 - Providence, RI 42 mi47 min NNE 5.1 G 7 44°F 37°F1024.6 hPa
44017 - 23 Nautical Miles Southwest of Montauk Point, NY 44 mi39 min WNW 12 G 14 40°F 41°F3 ft1026.4 hPa (-0.7)26°F
BUZM3 - Buzzards Bay, MA 44 mi89 min NW 6 G 7 40°F 1026.4 hPa (+0.0)
44097 - Block Island, RI (154) 45 mi29 min 42°F3 ft
BLTM3 - 8447387 - Borden Flats Light at Fall River, MA 45 mi41 min NW 8 G 11 45°F 1025.2 hPa
FRXM3 45 mi41 min 42°F 23°F
FRVM3 - 8447386 - Fall River, MA 46 mi41 min 42°F 42°F

Wind History for New London, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Westerly, Westerly State Airport, RI4 mi36 minN 910.00 miFair47°F24°F41%1025.6 hPa
Groton / New London, Groton / New London Airport, CT10 mi33 minNNW 910.00 miFair45°F21°F39%1025.4 hPa
Montauk, Montauk Airport, NY16 mi35 minW 6 mi42°F28°F58%1026.2 hPa
Block Island State Airport, RI17 mi33 minW 810.00 miFair43°F23°F45%1026 hPa

Wind History from WST (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW10SW5W9SW5CalmNW4NW4NW3CalmW5W4W3W3W4W3CalmCalm3NW7NW7
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1 day agoS7S8CalmCalmNE4SE7E7E11E9E10E6E13E11
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2 days agoNW10
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5W35W7NW4NW743N4CalmW3CalmNW3N3N4CalmCalmCalmS4E3S4

Tide / Current Tables for Watch Hill Point, Rhode Island
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Watch Hill Point
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Fri -- 04:27 AM EST     -0.66 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 06:32 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:35 AM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 10:34 AM EST     3.09 feet High Tide
Fri -- 04:48 PM EST     -0.53 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 05:29 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 09:19 PM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 10:58 PM EST     3.12 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.31.30.4-0.3-0.6-0.6-0.20.51.52.4332.51.70.80-0.4-0.5-0.30.31.22.12.93.1

Tide / Current Tables for The Race, Long Island Sound, New York Current
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The Race
Click for Map
Fri -- 01:09 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 04:11 AM EST     -4.07 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 06:33 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:24 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 08:35 AM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 10:15 AM EST     3.63 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 01:31 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 04:34 PM EST     -3.95 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 05:30 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 07:45 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 09:20 PM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 10:40 PM EST     3.66 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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20.3-1.7-3.3-4.1-3.7-2.5-0.81.12.83.63.42.40.9-0.9-2.7-3.8-3.9-2.9-1.40.42.23.43.6

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Boston, MA (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Boston, MA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.