Wednesday, April25, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Watch Hill, RI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.

Sunrise 5:49AMSunset 7:40PM Wednesday April 25, 2018 4:18 AM EDT (08:18 UTC) Moonrise 3:01PMMoonset 3:50AM Illumination 75% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ237 Block Island Sound- 403 Am Edt Wed Apr 25 2018
.small craft advisory in effect through Thursday afternoon...
Today..SE winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft. Areas of fog. Rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm, decreasing to 1 nm or less this afternoon.
Tonight..SE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt, becoming S 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 5 to 8 ft. Areas of fog. Showers. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Thu..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft. Areas of fog. A chance of showers. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Thu night..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
Fri..S winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming se 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Showers likely.
Fri night..S winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming sw 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Showers likely.
Sat..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Sat night..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Sun..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Sun night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.
ANZ200 403 Am Edt Wed Apr 25 2018
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters.. Low pressure will push across the region today, bringing areas of rain and isolated Thunderstorms, then move across northern new england by midday Thursday. Another low will move up the coast with a round of showers Friday afternoon and evening. A cold front will cross the region late Saturday into Saturday evening with a few showers possible. High pressure will build in from the west Saturday night and Sunday. For information on possible hazardous weather beyond the 24-36 hour forecast period, please visit www.weather.gov/boston and follow the current hazards link above the map on the left.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Watch Hill, RI
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location: 41.31, -71.86     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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Fxus61 kbox 250733
afdbox
area forecast discussion
national weather service boston norton ma
333 am edt Wed apr 25 2018

Synopsis
Low pressure approaching from the southwest will bring a soaking
rain today and into this evening. Locally heavy downpours may
result in some brief nuisance poor drainage street flooding with an
isolated thunderstorm or two possible. Seasonable temperatures
follow for the remainder of the week with mainly dry weather other
than a brief period of rain showers likely Friday. A cool down will
occur Saturday night and Sunday, but this will be short lived as
unseasonably warm temperatures appear to be in store for the region
by the middle of next week.

Near term until 6 am this morning
955 pm update...

temperatures have been very slowly decreasing hours while
dewpoints have slowly increased as seen on surface observation
trends since 22z. Still noting rather wide t TD trends, though
they are lower across the immediate S coast and especially on
the islands from the 01z observations, down to 3 degrees at
kack.

Weak ridging extending westward from high pressure SE of nova
scotia keeping precip at bay this evening with the continued dry
airmass, though noting reports of -ra at kjfk at 01z.

With mainly cloudy skies across the region, along with winds
becoming generally e-se, should see temps continue to fall
slowly overnight.

Have updated near term forecast to bring conditions current, but
not a whole lot of changes from the previous update.

Previous discussion...

model trends have slowed the timing just slightly for the onset
of the warm advection rainfall. This is due to such a dry
airmass in the mid-levels (700-800mb). Bufkit soundings moisten
the profile out west by 06z and over the east around 10z. Thus
went ahead and slowed the timing. Aside, expect clouds to
thicken and lower during the overnight hours before the
precipitation begins to fall. Anticipate showers to start due
to isentropic lift and in the WAA pattern. Heavier precip will
fall by 09-12z from west to east towards the morning hours.

Short term 6 am this morning through 6 pm Thursday
Wednesday into Wednesday night...

*** heavy rainfall and isolated thunder for Wednesday ***
southern stream surface low will approach the region on Wednesday as
northern stream trough swings into the area from southern
canada. This surface low will move across the region, allowing
for the southern half of sne to become warm sectored. This upper
level trough will continue to dig and go negatively tiled
pushing the surface low up into the gulf of maine by Thursday
morning.

Rainfall...

steady rainfall will stream into the region by Wednesday morning as
pwat values increase to 1.3 inches, 1-2 std above normal. Associated
with this system, strong LLJ nearing 3 std above normal will allow
for strong moisture transport into the region. Right now appears
that widespread 1-2 inches of rainfall will occur through Wednesday
night. Think the highest amounts will occur across the worcester
hills and the east slope of the berks where upslope flow will help
create a bit more lift. Cannot rule out the potential for 2+
inches in that region, which is indicated by the arw. Still with
this much rainfall, appears the the main stem rivers will
remain in their banks per nerfc's forecast and mmefs. Still, we
will have to watch some of the flashy streams. Right now believe
that urban and poor drainage flooding will be the main threat.

Precip will come to an end by late Wednesday into the overnight
hours as main jet lifts farther north. Models also show some
drying into the mid to upper levels which could result in
showery weather towards Thursday morning.

Wind...

as mentioned before, strong LLJ increases during the day on
Wednesday reaching close to 3 std above normal. In fact, 925mb winds
increase between 50-60 kts. Believe that most of this wind will
remain elevated as soundings show a strong inversion across the
area. However, could see some mixing near the southeast coastal
plain where the potential for thunder could bring down a few strong
winds gusts. Also appears to be a narrow window where lapse rates
may be steep enough. Believe that we could see somewhere near 25-35
mph across the southeast coastal plain. Will hold off in any adv for
this time as confidence is not that high.

Thunder...

a low risk for thunder during the day on Wednesday as we warm
sector just a bit by the afternoon hours. Models indicate that
showalters drop below 0 and there is some elevated CAPE nearing
a few hundred joules. Like the timing of the SPC href mu cape
so tried to incorporate that into the forecast. Biggest risk
would be heavy rainfall and some gusty winds within any
thunderstorm.

Fog...

as the system begins to wind down late Wednesday night into Thursday
morning, we may have to watch for the potential for fog. High
dewpoint airmass will still be over the region Wednesday night and
with some drying in the mid-levels, low levels appear to remain
saturated. Winds also appears to be light. So aside from some
showers moving across the region, may have to watch for patchy dense
fog, especially across the south coast.

Long term Thursday night through Tuesday
Highlights...

* a 1-3 hour period of rain showers likely fri
* milder Sat with just a few brief afternoon evening showers possible
* dry and noticeably cooler Sun with frost potential late Sun night
* dry weather Mon Tue Wed with a significant warming trend and the
potential for 80+ in some locations by the middle of next week
details...

Thursday night...

a ridge of high pressure will result in a dry tranquil night. Low
temperatures should bottom out in the upper 30s to the middle 40s in
most locales.

Friday...

shortwave trough remains to our west and it will eject a piece of
energy into our region on southwest flow aloft. Appears there will
be enough forcing for a 1 to 3 hour period of rain showers sometime
Friday into early Friday evening. Certainly not looking at a lot of
rain... But appears the likelihood that most locations do see a
brief period of rain showers. Clouds and the likelihood of a brief
period of wet weather should hold high temps mainly in the
lower 60s.

Saturday and Saturday night...

a milder day is on tap for Saturday ahead of an approaching cold
front. Southwest flow and partial sunshine should allow high
temperatures to recover well into the 60s to possible around 70 in a
few locales. While dry weather should dominate... An approaching
cold front may trigger a few brief showers during the
afternoon evening. Greatest risk will be across western ma... Where
forcing moisture will be a bit deeper. Turns cooler Sat night
behind the cold front. Low temps by daybreak Sun should be down
into the upper 30s and lower 40s.

Sunday and Sunday night...

deep trough sets up across the northeast with anomalously low height
fields. It will be noticeably cooler... But highs should still top
out well into the 50s with good mixing in northwest flow along with
the benefit of the increasing spring Sun angle. The dry airmass in
place will allow for chilly temps late Sun night into early Mon am.

Lows should bottom out in the upper 20s to the middle 30s in many
locations. Frost headlines may eventually need to be considered
where the growing season has officially started.

Monday through Wednesday...

the northeast trough quickly moves east of the region Monday and
will be replaced by strong upper level ridging by the middle of next
week. The result should be dry weather with a significant warmup.

High temps should recover into the lower to middle 60s
mon... Probably well into the 70s by tue... And the potential for some
80 plus degree readings on wed. A weak pressure gradient will
likely allow for sea breezes and cooler conditions along the coast
at times. Nonetheless... At least a taste of summer afternoon warmth
appears to be in the cards for much of the region.

Aviation 08z Wednesday through Sunday
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Thursday ... Moderate to high confidence.

Overnight... Expect mainlyVFR. Winds will shift to the e-se
between 06z and 09z.

Wednesday... MVFR lowering to ifr, moving in from SW to ne
generally between 10z and 14z. Rain will quickly overspread the
region as winds remain e-se. Ifr-lifr conditions possible
during the late morning into the afternoon with +ra and isolated
thunder. Low risk for 35 kt gusts across the southeast coastal
plain. Otherwise strong llws through much of the day.

Wednesday night... Ifr with possible lifr across the area.

Improving to MVFR towards dawn on Thursday. +ra remains trending
towards showery weather after midnight. Could be low vsbys along
the south coast in fog through much of the night.

Kbos terminal... High confidence in taf. May get the first part
of the morning rush through inVFR, albeit lowering cigs.

However, E to SE wind accompanied by rain likely keep CIGS low
late morning into Wed night. Low risk for tsra after 21z.

Kbdl terminal... High confidence in taf. Morning rush could be
impacted with +ra.

Outlook Thursday night through Sunday ... Moderate to high
confidence.

Thursday night:VFR.

Friday and Friday night: a period of MVFR to localized ifr conditions
likely in a round of rain showers sometime Friday into early
Friday evening.

Saturday through Saturday night:VFR. Breezy. Slight chance
shra.

Sunday:VFR. Breezy.

Marine
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Thursday ...

tonight... High confidence. Approach surface low will switch
winds to the ese and gusts to near 25kts. Seas will build as a
response resulting in sca.

Wednesday and Wednesday night... Moderate confidence.

Small craft advisory winds with gusts up to 30 kt and a low
risk for a few 35 knot gusts early in the evening across the
southeast waters. Rough seas up to 13 ft. Chance of rain
showers, areas fog, isolated thunderstorms. Visibility 1 to 3
nm.

Outlook Thursday night through Sunday ... Moderate to high
Thursday night: winds less than 25 kt. Areas of rough seas.

Friday: winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Rain showers
likely.

Friday night: winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Slight
chance of rain showers.

Saturday: winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft.

Saturday night: winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Slight
chance of rain showers.

Sunday: low risk for small craft advisory winds with gusts up
to 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft.

Equipment
The NOAA weather radio transmitter serving providence is out of
service due to phone line problems. The phone company has
prioritized the issues and is working to get the weather
broadcast back on the air as soon as possible. The transmitter
serving hyannis is back in service.

Box watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ma... None.

Ri... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 9 pm edt this evening for anz231-
232.

Small craft advisory from 7 am this morning to 9 pm edt this
evening for anz233-234.

Small craft advisory from 1 pm this afternoon to 8 pm edt this
evening for anz230.

Small craft advisory from 9 am this morning to 6 pm edt this
evening for anz236.

Small craft advisory until 9 am edt Thursday for anz235-237-
254.

Small craft advisory from 8 am this morning to 9 am edt
Thursday for anz250-251.

Small craft advisory until 9 am edt Thursday for anz255-256.

Synopsis... Frank
near term... Evt thompson
short term... Dunten
long term... Frank
aviation... Evt frank
marine... Evt frank
equipment... Staff


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
LDLC3 - New London Ledge CT - Ledge Light Weather 12 mi38 min E 9.9 G 11 49°F 45°F
NLNC3 - 8461490 - New London, CT 13 mi48 min SE 4.1 G 7 52°F 45°F1019.9 hPa
MTKN6 - 8510560 - Montauk, NY 19 mi48 min 49°F 44°F1019.6 hPa
QPTR1 - 8454049 - Quonset Point, RI 31 mi48 min SSE 11 G 13 51°F 48°F1021 hPa
NWPR1 - 8452660 - Newport, RI 31 mi48 min ESE 9.9 G 14 49°F 45°F1020.4 hPa
PTCR1 - 8452951 - Potter Cove, Prudence Island, RI 36 mi48 min S 7 G 15 54°F 1020.6 hPa
NAXR1 - Narragansett Bay Reserve, RI 36 mi93 min S 4.1 53°F 1000 hPa46°F
CPTR1 - 8452944 - Conimicut Light, RI 39 mi48 min SSE 1 G 4.1 51°F 51°F1021.2 hPa
PVDR1 41 mi48 min N 1.9 G 2.9 51°F 1021.5 hPa42°F
FOXR1 - 8454000 - Providence, RI 42 mi48 min E 1.9 G 2.9 51°F 49°F1020.8 hPa
44039 - Central Long Island Sound 44 mi33 min E 12 G 14 46°F 2 ft
BUZM3 - Buzzards Bay, MA 44 mi78 min SE 18 G 19 49°F 1021.7 hPa (-3.1)
44017 - 23 Nautical Miles Southwest of Montauk Point, NY 44 mi88 min SE 14 G 18 48°F 45°F4 ft1019.5 hPa (-3.3)47°F
FRXM3 45 mi48 min 55°F 44°F
44097 - Block Island, RI (154) 45 mi65 min 45°F3 ft
BLTM3 - 8447387 - Borden Flats Light at Fall River, MA 45 mi48 min SE 12 G 19 55°F 1020.9 hPa
FRVM3 - 8447386 - Fall River, MA 46 mi48 min 54°F 49°F1021.4 hPa

Wind History for New London, CT
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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--
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N2
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N6
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Westerly, Westerly State Airport, RI4 mi25 minESE 910.00 miOvercast51°F46°F86%1020 hPa
Groton / New London, Groton / New London Airport, CT10 mi22 minESE 1110.00 miLight Rain50°F46°F89%1019.4 hPa
Montauk, Montauk Airport, NY16 mi24 minSE 7 G 18 mi51°F46°F86%1019.7 hPa
Block Island State Airport, RI17 mi22 minSE 1710.00 miLight Rain49°F46°F90%1020.3 hPa

Wind History from WST (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmN3CalmCalmCalmS6S7S9S10S12S13
G17
S11S10S7SE7SE7SE10SE5SE6E6E8E7E9E9
1 day agoCalmNE3NE3NE3NE5NE6SE8SE10SE10S11S10S9S8S9S4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmN56NW9
G14
5W6SW9SW11SW8SW11
G19
SW10SW8SW8SW4W8W6W4CalmCalmCalmCalmN3

Tide / Current Tables for Watch Hill Point, Rhode Island
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Watch Hill Point
Click for Map
Wed -- 03:49 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 05:29 AM EDT     2.67 feet High Tide
Wed -- 05:53 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 12:13 PM EDT     -0.04 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 03:01 PM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 06:00 PM EDT     2.75 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:38 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.10.30.81.52.22.62.62.21.710.50.1-000.51.11.92.52.72.521.40.80.3

Tide / Current Tables for The Race, Long Island Sound, New York Current
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The Race
Click for Map
Wed -- 02:24 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 03:50 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 05:17 AM EDT     2.69 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 05:53 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 08:33 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 11:34 AM EDT     -3.19 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 02:53 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 03:02 PM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 05:50 PM EDT     2.89 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 07:39 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 09:07 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-2.7-1.8-0.60.92.12.72.51.90.8-0.7-2.2-3-3.1-2.5-1.30.21.72.72.92.51.60.2-1.4-2.7

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Boston, MA (4,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Boston, MA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.