Wednesday, October18, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Watch Hill, RI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:02AMSunset 6:02PM Wednesday October 18, 2017 4:35 PM EDT (20:35 UTC) Moonrise 5:38AMMoonset 5:51PM Illumination 2% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 28 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ237 Block Island Sound- 323 Pm Edt Wed Oct 18 2017
.small craft advisory in effect from Thursday afternoon through late Thursday night...
Tonight..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, diminishing to around 5 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Thu..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Thu night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Fri..NW winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Fri night..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Sat..NE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming S in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Sat night..SW winds around 5 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Sun..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Sun night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Mon..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Mon night..S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers. Seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.
ANZ200 323 Pm Edt Wed Oct 18 2017
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters.. Large high pressure will remain anchored south of new england through next weekend. A dry cold front is expected to cross the region early Fri. For information on possible hazardous weather beyond the 24-36 hour forecast period, please visit www.weather.gov/boston and follow the current hazards link above the map on the left.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Watch Hill, RI
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location: 41.31, -71.86     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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Fxus61 kbox 181930
afdbox
area forecast discussion
national weather service taunton ma
330 pm edt Wed oct 18 2017

Synopsis
High pressure will maintain dry weather and warmer than normal
temperatures through the weekend.

Near term until 6 am Thursday morning
Another beautiful october afternoon evening. Plenty of sunshine
through sunset of course with dry dwpts in the 40s as upper lvl
ridge crests over the region this evening.

Overnight, similar setup to previous nights, however noting a
slight increase in S gradient flow which suggests a minimal
increase in sfc dwpts. This may limit overnight cooling a bit
compared to previous nights, suggesting lows mainly remain in
the mid 40s to low 50s in the heat islands, a few degrees
warmer.

Otherwise, given increased S gradient and low lvl moisture will
need to also watch for a bit more patchy frost or even low
stratus development inland of the ct coast ri especially.

Short term 6 am Thursday morning through Thursday night
Tomorrow...

upper lvl shortwave continues opening trend as it moves across s
new england during the late afternoon evening hours. The
attendant cold front loses its baroclinicity and is associated
with little to no moisture increase so aside from a few more sct
clouds are possible, but this FROPA passes with little fanfare.

Sfc pres gradient response yields an increase, so s-sw flow will
be breezy with a few wind gusts around 25 mph during the
afternoon. Temps a bit milder in spite of the sct clouds thanks
to weak warm advection aloft ahead of the wave. Looking at
widespread low 70s.

Tomorrow night...

weak front shifts e. Gradient winds shift to the W but weaken
inland as pres gradient weakens rapidly with the core of a
stronger high pres shifting e. Winds may remain elevated near
shore. The slight increase in moisture thanks to S gradient flow
during the day will limit overnight mins further still,
suggesting more widespread upper 40s to low 50s.

Long term Friday through Tuesday
* above average temps and dry conditions lasting into Monday
* precipitation chances are increasing for mid-next week.

Pattern overview confidence...

12z guidance is in good agreement for the long term. Passing frontal
system an associated trough will push offshore by Friday morning.

Anomalous ridging will develop across the east coast pushing heights
and temperatures 2 std above normal. This strong ridge will last
into early next week before a pattern change appears to take hold of
the area. Digging trough will dip into the gulf states with the
potential for a closed low peeling off. Another wave will begin to
dive into the ohio valley which could result in phasing to a
negatively tilted trough putting much of the east coast near 3-4 std
below normal in heights fields. This pattern change will result in
cooler conditions and unsettled weather.

Details...

temperature forecast...

overall trend in the forecast is for above average temperatures
through the period. Cool front will sweep through the region
Thursday night leading to a cooler day on Friday, but still above
average. Anomalous ridge will begin to build for the weekend into
Monday resulting in high temps into the mid 70s. Tuesday's and even
Wednesday's temperature forecast is a bit trickier as it is
dependent on the timing of the front. Thus will trend towards a
model consensus until guidance gets a better handling on the fropa.

Precipitation forecast...

high pressure will take over the area on Friday through Monday
leading to dry weather. Next chance or precipitation will be around
the Tuesday timeframe when a potent trough will dig into the ohio
valley and towards the east coast. Ensemble guidance is trending
towards a very wet pattern with high pwat values and strong
southerly llj. This is in conjunction with the several waves of low
pressure that will ride along the trough both Tuesday and Wednesday.

Aviation 19z Wednesday through Monday
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Thursday night ... Generally high
confidence.

MainlyVFR. A few ifr sct-bkn CIGS possible mainly E ct into
ri, including pvd after 06z tonight through 12z. Confidence too
low for TAF at this time, but will hint at it.VFR then returns
tomorrow and most of tomorrow night.

Sw flow expected today through the daylight tomorrow, then
gradual shift to the W is expected tomorrow evening overnight.

Kbos terminal... High confidence in taf.

Kbdl terminal... Moderate confidence in taf. AlthoughVFR
dominates there is a low risk for some low CIGS around ifr late
tonight into early tomorrow morning.

Outlook Friday through Sunday ...

high confidence.VFR.

Marine
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Thursday night ... High confidence.

Overnight...

winds and seas continue to diminish overnight. Quiet boating
weather into tomorrow morning.

Tomorrow and tomorrow night...

s-sw winds increase tomorrow afternoon with gusts to around 25
kt likely over all waters by late afternoon and a slight
increase in outer seas to near 5 ft. These winds persist into
the overnight but slowly diminish as they shift to the W late
tomorrow night. Small craft advisories will be issued for all
waters.

Outlook Friday through Sunday ... High confidence.

Great boating weather as high pressure prevails through the
upcoming weekend with sub SCA conditions.

Fire weather
Ahead of a very weak cold front tomorrow (with which no
precipitation is expected) s-sw winds will gust 20-25 mph across
much of the region. Relatively mild conditions (highs in the
low-mid 70s) and continued dry dewpoints in the mid 40s to low
50s will yield min rh values near 30 percent. With an overall
lack of precipitation of late this suggests elevated fire
weather for the day tomorrow.

Box watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ma... None.

Ri... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory from 2 pm Thursday to 6 am edt Friday for
anz231>234.

Small craft advisory from 2 pm Thursday to midnight edt
Thursday night for anz230-236.

Small craft advisory from 4 pm Thursday to 6 am edt Friday for
anz235-237-255-256.

Small craft advisory from 2 pm Thursday to 8 am edt Friday for
anz250-251-254.

Synopsis... Doody dunten
near term... Doody
short term... Doody
long term... Dunten
aviation... Doody dunten
marine... Doody dunten


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
LDLC3 - New London Ledge CT - Ledge Light Weather 12 mi35 min W 16 G 18 65°F 1023.5 hPa (-1.1)51°F
NLNC3 - 8461490 - New London, CT 13 mi47 min WSW 5.1 G 9.9 69°F 65°F1023.9 hPa
MTKN6 - 8510560 - Montauk, NY 19 mi47 min 66°F 64°F1024.2 hPa
NWPR1 - 8452660 - Newport, RI 31 mi47 min SSW 11 G 14 66°F 62°F1023.4 hPa
QPTR1 - 8454049 - Quonset Point, RI 31 mi53 min WSW 7 G 8.9 70°F 64°F1023.5 hPa
PRUR1 36 mi47 min 73°F 43°F
PTCR1 - 8452951 - Potter Cove, Prudence Island, RI 36 mi53 min W 1 G 2.9 73°F 1023.4 hPa
NAXR1 - Narragansett Bay Reserve, RI 36 mi110 min SW 2.9 72°F 1002 hPa47°F
CPTR1 - 8452944 - Conimicut Light, RI 39 mi53 min S 8 G 9.9 68°F 64°F1023.1 hPa
PVDR1 41 mi47 min W 6 G 8 73°F 1023.3 hPa41°F
FOXR1 - 8454000 - Providence, RI 42 mi53 min NW 6 G 8.9 73°F 64°F1023 hPa
44039 - Central Long Island Sound 44 mi95 min SW 5.8 G 7.8 64°F 1 ft
BUZM3 - Buzzards Bay, MA 44 mi35 min WSW 15 G 17 63°F 1024.1 hPa (-1.0)
BLTM3 - 8447387 - Borden Flats Light at Fall River, MA 45 mi47 min SSW 8.9 G 9.9 68°F 1022.7 hPa
FRXM3 45 mi47 min 70°F 44°F
FRVM3 - 8447386 - Fall River, MA 46 mi53 min 71°F 64°F1024.2 hPa

Wind History for New London, CT
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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SW6
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Westerly, Westerly State Airport, RI4 mi42 minSW 810.00 miFair68°F50°F53%1024.4 hPa
Groton / New London, Groton / New London Airport, CT10 mi39 minWSW 910.00 miFair67°F48°F53%1024 hPa
Montauk, Montauk Airport, NY16 mi1.7 hrsVar 4 mi69°F48°F47%1025 hPa
Block Island State Airport, RI17 mi39 minSW 1010.00 miFair65°F55°F73%1024.9 hPa

Wind History from WST (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS7S4SW3SW5SW5SW4SW5SW5SW6W4W3W4W3W5W4CalmW4W5SW55SW7SW7SW8SW8
1 day agoNW45NW6N4NW3CalmCalmN4CalmN5N8N9NW3Calm34N6N73N6CalmCalmS11S9
2 days agoS9S12SW13
G20
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SW9W6NW8
G17
5NW54NW74NW5N75NW64NW5

Tide / Current Tables for Watch Hill Point, Rhode Island
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Watch Hill Point
Click for Map
Wed -- 02:16 AM EDT     -0.16 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 05:37 AM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 07:02 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 08:04 AM EDT     3.13 feet High Tide
Wed -- 02:44 PM EDT     -0.19 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 05:51 PM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 06:01 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 08:25 PM EDT     2.93 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.60.1-0.1-0.10.41.22.12.83.12.92.31.60.90.3-0.1-0.20.10.81.62.42.92.92.41.7

Tide / Current Tables for The Race, Long Island Sound, New York Current
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The Race
Click for Map
Wed -- 01:46 AM EDT     -3.43 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 05:01 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 05:38 AM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 07:03 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:58 AM EDT     3.19 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 11:10 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 02:11 PM EDT     -3.62 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 05:29 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 05:51 PM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 06:02 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 08:23 PM EDT     3.10 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 11:35 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-2-3.1-3.4-2.8-1.7-01.72.83.22.91.90.3-1.5-3-3.6-3.3-2.4-0.90.92.43.132.31

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Boston, MA (16,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Boston, MA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.