Sunday, June16, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Watch Hill, RI

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Sunrise 5:11AMSunset 8:24PM Sunday June 16, 2019 1:49 PM EDT (17:49 UTC) Moonrise 7:49PMMoonset 4:45AM Illumination 99% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 14 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ237 Block Island Sound- 117 Pm Edt Sun Jun 16 2019
.small craft advisory in effect through late tonight...
This afternoon..S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. A slight chance of showers.
Tonight..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, becoming W 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Patchy fog. A chance of showers. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Mon..NW winds around 5 kt, becoming se in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Mon night..S winds around 5 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. A chance of showers.
Tue..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Showers likely.
Tue night..E winds 5 to 10 kt, diminishing to around 5 kt after midnight. Seas around 2 ft. A chance of showers.
Wed..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers.
Wed night..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. A chance of showers.
Thu..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Showers likely.
Thu night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Showers likely. Seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.
ANZ200 117 Pm Edt Sun Jun 16 2019
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters.. A cold front will bring showers to the waters this afternoon and tonight. The front will stall tonight, either near the south coast or south of the waters. Weak high pressure brings brief drier weather Monday. Disturbances moving along the stalled front will then bring periods of showers Tuesday through Thursday. For information on possible hazardous weather beyond the 24-36 hour forecast period, please visit www.weather.gov/boston and follow the current hazards link above the map on the left.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Watch Hill, RI
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location: 41.31, -71.86     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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Fxus61 kbox 161414
afdbox
area forecast discussion
national weather service boston norton ma
1014 am edt Sun jun 16 2019

Synopsis
A cold front sweeps south from canada, bringing showers and
local downpours. An isolated thunderstorm may cross the south
coast. Weak high pressure brings clearing conditions tonight
and Monday. Then bouts of rain, embedded heavier showers,
possible thunderstorms beginning Monday night through Friday
morning as a wave train of storm systems slides west to east
along a stalled surface frontal boundary across or in vicinity
of southern new england. Next weekend could end up warmer and
dry.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
1010 am update...

next batch of showers moving into northern ma. Weak frontal
boundary sags south into northern ma this afternoon with low
level convergence providing a focus for a period of heavy
rainfall given pwats near 1.75" which is up to 2sd above normal.

Most widespread rainfall will be north of the pike where best
forcing for ascent and deepest moisture is focused. Rainfall
amounts of 0.50 to 1 inch are expected here with low risk for
localized amounts up to 2 inches in NW ma. South of the pike,
showers will be more scattered this afternoon and most of the
day may be dry near the south coast, with better chance of
showers early this evening as the front drops south. Not much in
the way of instability today, but soundings do indicate some
elevated instability developing toward evening south of the pike
where an isolated t-storm is possible. Temps should reach
low mid 70s south of the pike with mainly 60s to the north. A
few gusts to 25 mph will develop near the south coast as low
level jet south of the coast.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 pm Monday
Tonight... Upper jet and right entrance region move off to the
east tonight. The surface low pressure wave may be enough to
push the stalled front to the south coast, but only low
confidence in the positioning of the front during the night. Dew
points will be around 60... But it is possible the front remains
farther north over southern new england with local dew points
in the low to mid 60s. Expect min sfc temps in the upper 50s to
mid 60s.

Showers linger through the evening but then move off to the
east by midnight. If the front remains over southern new england
then there would be a chance of showers overnight.

Monday...

high pressure moves across northern new england should bring a
brief break to the showers. The ridge and its subsidence will
allow for daytime heating, with mixing to 850 mb. This will tap
850 mb temps of 10-12c, supporting MAX sfc temps of roughly
75-80f.

However the right entrance region of the next upper jet moves
into position over new york and pa late in the day, favoring a
slight chance of showers in ct ri at that time.

Long term Monday night through Saturday
Highlights...

* bouts of rain, embedded heavier showers, possible thunderstorms
beginning Monday night continuing through Friday morning
* seasonable temperatures throughout
* by late june could see warmer than average conditions
details...

Monday night and Tuesday...

our next chance at wet weather comes sometime late Monday
night Tuesday morning as a surface low pressure system strengthens
over the DELMARVA peninsula and crosses southern new england. Mid
and upper level moisture out ahead will bring increasing cloudcover
Monday evening, and rain chances increase with time. All the
ingredients should come together for rain Monday night and Tuesday
given ample moisture through the column (pwats 1.5-2"), isentropic
lift along a warm frontal boundary, and placement under the rrq of a
100kt 300mb jet. However, there still exits some uncertainty as to
how widespread it will be for a few reasons. Mainly, the exact track
of the low will play an important role. NAM guidance wants to keep
the low and best forcing for precip further south, mainly impacting
areas south of the ma pike, while global models bring rain further
north. Given the difficulty models are having with resolving exact
details in a quasi-zonal pattern, will stick with a consensus of
chance pops through Tuesday for now. Increased clouds and rain
should keep temperatures cooler on Tuesday, in the upper 60s and low
70s.

Wednesday through Friday...

reiterating the point previously made, the flat, zonal nature of the
steering flow during this period of the forecast keeps confidence
low on exact timing and details of rain chances. Suffice it to say,
it won't be a dry week for southern new england. A progressive and
unsettled pattern which set up earlier in the week continues through
at least Thursday. With a stalled w-e surface frontal boundary
lingering in the vicinity, a quasi-stationary upper jet in favorable
position for synoptic lift, and precipitable water values
consistently above 1.5", a series of shortwaves will bring periodic
rain chances with potential for embedded downpours and
thunderstorms. Not until Thursday night Friday do we see signs of a
pattern change. Models continue to be consistent in bringing a
stronger shortwave out of the ohio valley into the northeast. This
would bring widespread potentially heavy rain to the region, though
whether it exits by Friday or sometime later is yet to be seen. No
appreciable hot or cold air intrusions foreseen in this time period,
so temperatures should remain pleasant and seasonable, in the
70s... Cooler along the coast.

Saturday...

behind the Thursday night Friday front drier air filters in and
things look to dry out under weak mid level ridging. Temperatures
still around average, though the CPC and some ensemble guidance is
calling for the return of above average temperatures for late june,
so warmer weather may be just over the horizon.

Aviation 14z Sunday through Thursday
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Monday ... High confidence.

Today...

vfr conditions will lower to MVFR during the morning or early
afternoon, with ceilings to ifr in the afternoon especially
along and north of the mass pike. Visibility will be 3 to 5
miles in showers, but 1 to 3 miles where fog forms. Isolated
thunderstorms are possible this afternoon along the south coast.

Tonight...

ifr MVFR conditions the first part of the night in showers and
fog. Conditions then improve from northwest to southeast as
high pressure builds overnight. Lingering ifr on CAPE cod and
islands late at night, while all other areas improve toVFR.

Monday...

high pressure over northern new england will bring a brief spell
of dry weather withVFR conditions all areas.

Kbos terminal... High confidence in taf.

Kbdl terminal... High confidence in taf.

Outlook Monday night through Thursday ... Moderate confidence.

Monday night: mainlyVFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance
shra.

Tuesday: mainlyVFR, with areas ifr possible. Chance shra.

Tuesday night: mainlyVFR, with areas ifr possible. Slight
chance shra.

Wednesday through Wednesday night: mainlyVFR, with local ifr
possible. Chance shra.

Thursday: mainlyVFR, with areas MVFR possible. Shra likely.

Marine
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Monday ... High confidence.

Today...

sw gusts to 20-25 kt expected over nearshore south coastal
waters this afternoon as low level jet develops. Rough seas to
5-6 ft over outer southern waters. Small craft advisories in
effect for south coastal waters.

Showers and isolated thunderstorms will develop today,
especially in the afternoon evening. Increasing humidity in the
air will also favor fog formation, with visibility in rain and
fog 3 to 5 nm.

Tonight...

showers and fog will continue to affect the waters early
tonight, with vsbys around 3 nm. Expect conditions to improve
to unrestricted visibility toward morning.

Monday...

weak high pressure builds south over the waters. This should
maintain dry conditions through the day. North winds become
variable as the high pressure moves overhead. Winds will remain
less than 20 kt. Most seas will be less than 5 feet, but may be
near 5 feet along the extreme southern edge of the southern
outer waters.

Outlook Monday night through Thursday ... Moderate confidence.

Monday night: winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching
5 ft. Chance of rain showers.

Tuesday through Wednesday: winds less than 25 kt. Chance of
rain showers.

Wednesday night: winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally
approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain showers.

Thursday: winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching
5 ft. Rain showers likely.

Box watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ma... None.

Ri... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 7 pm edt this evening for
anz232>234.

Small craft advisory until 6 am edt Monday for anz235-237.

Small craft advisory until noon edt Monday for anz254>256.

Synopsis... Wtb bw
near term... Kjc
short term... Wtb
long term... Bw
aviation... Wtb bw
marine... Wtb kjc bw


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
LDLC3 - New London Ledge CT - Ledge Light Weather 12 mi25 min SSW 11 G 13 65°F 1011.1 hPa61°F
NAXR1 - Narragansett Bay Reserve, RI 36 mi65 min SW 5.1 70°F 1013 hPa65°F
44017 - 23 Nautical Miles Southwest of Montauk Point, NY 44 mi30 min SSW 16 G 19 64°F 61°F1012.8 hPa61°F
44097 - Block Island, RI (154) 45 mi50 min 59°F6 ft

Wind History for New London, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Westerly, Westerly State Airport, RI4 mi57 minSSW 910.00 miFair72°F64°F79%1012.6 hPa
Groton / New London, Groton / New London Airport, CT10 mi54 minSSW 910.00 miFair70°F62°F76%1011.8 hPa
Montauk, Montauk Airport, NY16 mi56 minSW 9 G 18 mi68°F62°F81%1012.8 hPa
Block Island State Airport, RI17 mi54 minSW 1410.00 miFair66°F61°F84%1013.3 hPa

Wind History from WST (wind in knots)
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5SW5SW8SW8SW8SW8CalmSW5CalmSW8S7S9SW9SW8SW9SW9
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W74CalmCalmSW3W3W3CalmW3W3W3W4W44W7SW5SW8SW7S13
2 days agoN14
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N7N7N8N8NW4CalmN4CalmCalmS3CalmSE3CalmCalmSW3SW4SW5SW8SW10SW9
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Tide / Current Tables for Watch Hill Point, Rhode Island
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Watch Hill Point
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Sun -- 02:54 AM EDT     -0.14 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 04:45 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 05:13 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 08:28 AM EDT     2.65 feet High Tide
Sun -- 02:43 PM EDT     -0.06 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 07:48 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 08:22 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 08:50 PM EDT     3.32 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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10.4-0-0.10.10.61.42.22.62.62.21.50.90.30-00.20.81.62.53.13.332.3

Tide / Current Tables for The Race, Long Island Sound, New York Current
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The Race
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Sun -- 02:13 AM EDT     -3.70 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 04:46 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 05:14 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 05:37 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 08:28 AM EDT     2.93 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 11:42 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 02:33 PM EDT     -3.06 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 05:40 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 07:49 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 08:23 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 08:36 PM EDT     3.07 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 11:52 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-1.6-3-3.7-3.4-2.5-10.72.12.92.82.31.1-0.5-2-2.9-3-2.3-10.522.932.51.4

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Boston, MA (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Boston, MA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.