Thursday, November22, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Watch Hill, RI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:43AMSunset 4:23PM Thursday November 22, 2018 5:58 AM EST (10:58 UTC) Moonrise 5:26PMMoonset 6:43AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 14 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ237 Block Island Sound- 323 Am Est Thu Nov 22 2018
.gale warning in effect through this evening...
Today..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 35 kt. Seas around 4 ft.
Tonight..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 35 kt, becoming N 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt after midnight. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Fri..N winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming W around 5 kt in the afternoon. Seas around 2 ft in the morning, then 1 foot or less.
Fri night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Sat..S winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas around 3 ft.
Sat night..SE winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 35 kt. Seas around 5 ft, building to 7 ft after midnight. Rain likely in the evening, then rain after midnight. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sun..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas around 8 ft. A chance of rain in the morning.
Sun night..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 7 ft.
Mon..SE winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 7 ft. Rain likely in the afternoon.
Mon night..S winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming W after midnight. Gusts up to 30 kt. Seas around 7 ft. Rain. Seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.
ANZ200 323 Am Est Thu Nov 22 2018
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters.. Arctic high pressure builds across the region through Saturday. North to northwest gales continue through tonight along with very cold temperatures. Arctic sea smoke is possible during this time. High pressure builds over the waters later Fri into Sat yielding light winds and not as cold conditions. A fast moving low tracks south of new england Sunday morning followed by weak high pressure Sunday night. For information on possible hazardous weather beyond the 24-36 hour forecast period, please visit www.weather.gov/boston and follow the current hazards link above the map on the left.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Watch Hill, RI
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location: 41.31, -71.86     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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Fxus61 kbox 220833
afdbox
area forecast discussion
national weather service boston norton ma
333 am est Thu nov 22 2018

Synopsis
An arctic air mass and gusty winds will bring bitter wind chills
today. High pressure moving off the coast will allow
temperatures to moderate some on Friday and particularly on
Saturday. Dry and much milder weather should prevail most of the
day Saturday, but a fast moving low pressure system will bring
a soaking rain to the region Saturday night into Sunday morning.

The next low pressure system quickly follows and will bring
another soaking rainfall sometime Monday afternoon into Tuesday
morning, but there is the low risk for a bit of snow ice across
the interior.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
Early morning satellite and surface observations show a very dry,
cold, and gusty post frontal air mass has moved into place over sne
this morning. It didn't take long for the distinctive ocean effect
clouds to show up as the arctic air flows over the warm atlantic.

This comes courtesy of strong CAA on northwest winds as a strong
surface high currently over the great lakes makes its way east
placing us on the eastern branch of the incoming mid level ridge. As
has been advertised for a while this airmass moving in is frigid and
quite anomalous for this time of year. Given our coldest temps will
come from CAA rather than any radiating diurnal trend, we actually
saw high temperatures come in at midnight. Worcester, providence,
and hartford managed to break the record for coldest thanksgiving
high temperatures today while boston only managed to tie (24 f, set
back in 1901. For an idea as to just how cold this airmass is one
simply needs look at h85 temps... Near -20c this morning. This will
result in record lows in the single digits and low teens. Given the
dry airmass we'll see sunny skies but this will be deceiving... Solar
insolation won't overcome the cold air advection keeping highs in
the low 20s and teens. If this wasn't bad enough gusty winds will
persist. Model soundings show good mixing bringing strong upper
level winds down to the surface of 25-35 mph through the day. Given
this, wind chill values dip near or below zero early this morning,
down near -15 in the berkshires where a wind chill advisory is in
effect.

While most everyone will be clear and dry today, one exception could
be outer CAPE cod, generally east of hyannis. Though it may feel
like the dead of winter outside, its actually still november, and
ssts remain in the upper 40s and low 50s. This creates a stark
contrast in temperatures from the sea surface to the top of the
mixed layer yielding good instability for potential ocean effect
snow. Bufkit soundings show potential for near 1000 j kg of ocean
induced cape. Winds out of the northwest mean the majority of the
snow showers will fall over the ocean, but some of the hi-res
guidance indicates potential for snow showers during the day. The
better chance comes later tonight into Friday morning as winds
become more northerly, a better trajectory for snow over the cape,
while at the same time time height cross sections indicate increased
moisture in the dendritic growth zone. Most locations from hyannis
to the east can expect a dusting to 2" of snow through tonight.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 pm Friday
As the surface low approaches eastern ny Thursday night surface
winds become more northerly, increasing the chance that some of the
ocean effect snow could impact the outer cape, especially locations
east of hya as previously mentioned. The high approaches eastern ny
overnight relaxing the pressure gradient and decreasing winds. Given
clear skies and lighter winds many locations that typically radiate
well will see the colder temperatures; most can expect lows in the
single digits with teens along the coastal plain.

Heights are on the rise Friday as the center of the low crosses sne.

A fantastic day on tap, if you can take the continued cold. Dry and
sunny with light winds under a strong mid level ridge. Temperatures
moderate a bit, into the upper 20s and low 30s... Still quite
bit colder than average.

Long term Friday night through Wednesday
Highlights...

* milder Sat with dry weather prevailing most of the afternoon
* soaking rain Sat night perhaps lingering into Sun am... Low risk
for a brief period of ice across the interior at the onset
* another soaking rain sometime Monday afternoon into Tue morning
but the low risk exists for some snow ice across the interior
* will need to monitor the potential for some more minor small
stream river flooding early next week
details...

Friday night...

one last dry and rather cold night is on tap... But still an
improvement over the last two nights. Low temps should bottom out
in the teens in many locations... But 20s for portions of the coast.

In fact... May see temps rise toward daybreak as southwest flow
increases with high pressure continuing to move further east and
away from the region.

Saturday...

a mixture of clouds and Sun will give way to more in the way of
clouds during the afternoon as a shortwave low pressure system from
the southwest. Appears that much of the day will remain dry... But
can not rule out the low risk for a bit of rain entering our western
zones toward evening. High temperatures should recover into the 40s
in most locations... To perhaps even near 50 across portions of the
southeast new england coast.

Saturday night and Sunday...

a soaking rain is in store for the region Saturday night... Which may
linger into Sunday morning. Timing is still uncertain... But models
have become a bit more robust with this wave of low pressure showing
a 50 knot southeast LLJ and pwats increasing to near 1 inch. This
should result in a period of decent forcing and most guidance agrees
on a fairly widespread 0.75 to 1.25 inches of rain. Ptype looks to
be all rain with lack of canadian high pressure. Nonetheless... There
is a low risk for a brief period of ice across the interior
dependent on boundary layer temps at the start. Even if it occurs
though it looks to be rather short-lived... As this looks like pretty
much a rain event.

The steady rain should be over sometime Sunday morning or early
afternoon... But some light showers and drizzle may linger
especially across eastern new england.

Monday and Tuesday...

another piece of vigorous shortwave energy will approach the region
from the west. The result should be another soaking rainfall.

Timing is still difficult... But looks to be sometime Monday
afternoon into Tuesday morning. The antecedent airmass ahead of
this storm is not that cold and current guidance indicates more of
an inland track with the low pressure system. However... If the
storm ended up tracking further southeast than currently indicated
with rapid intensification... The potential for some snow ice would
exist across the interior. That appears to be a low probability at
this point... But too early to set anything in stone.

Also... Given the very high river levels across the region there is
the risk for some minor river stream flooding early next week. The
naefs GEFS ensembles indicate this potential so something will have
to monitor with later forecasts.

Wednesday...

a stout -nao will keep the low pressure system from rapidly
escaping. It may still end up far enough northeast of us to result
in dry weather here on Wednesday... But if it ends up further south
we would have to watch for a bit of rain snow from the inverted
trough. Pretty low confidence in this time range.

Aviation 08z Thursday through Monday
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Friday ... High confidence.

Today...VFR today with areas of MVFR CIGS developing over the
outer CAPE into Thu night. A few flurries possible at times
over the outer CAPE with a period of steadier snow showers
possible Thu night. NW gusts to 25-35 kts.

Thursday night and Friday... Nw winds diminish overnight.

Steadier snow showers are possible over the outer CAPE Thursday
night... Best chance hya and east. FridayVFR. Light NW winds
become W SW by 21z.

Kbos terminal... High confidence.

Kbdl terminal... High confidence.

Outlook Friday night through Monday ...

Friday night:VFR. Breezy.

Saturday: mainlyVFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy.

Saturday night: MVFR ifr conditions possible. Windy with areas
gusts to 30 kt. Ra.

Sunday: mainlyVFR, with areas MVFR possible. Windy with local
gusts to 30 kt. Chance ra, slight chance shra.

Sunday night: mainlyVFR, with areas MVFR possible. Breezy.

Slight chance shra.

Monday: mainly MVFR, with local ifr possible. Windy with local
gusts to 30 kt. Ra likely, slight chance shra.

Marine
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Friday ... High confidence.

Nw gales with gusts 35-40 kt expected to continue through the
day today. Winds slowly diminish tonight. Vsbys may be reduced
at times in snow showers today into tonight across waters east
and NE of CAPE cod.

Outlook Friday night through Monday ...

Friday night: low risk for small craft advisory winds with
gusts up to 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.

Saturday: low risk for small craft advisory winds with gusts up
to 25 kt.

Saturday night: low risk for gale force winds with gusts up to
35 kt. Local rough seas. Rain. Visibility 1 to 3 nm.

Sunday: moderate risk for small craft advisory winds with gusts
up to 30 kt. Rough seas up to 9 ft. Chance of rain, slight
chance of rain showers.

Sunday night: low risk for small craft advisory winds with
gusts up to 25 kt. Rough seas up to 9 ft.

Monday: moderate risk for small craft advisory winds with gusts
up to 30 kt. Rough seas up to 11 ft. Rain likely, slight chance
of rain showers.

Climate
An early season shot of arctic air will likely result in some records
being broken thanksgiving into early Friday morning.

November 22nd
location record low record minimum high
boston... ... ... .9 (1879) 24 (1880)
hartford... ... .14 (1969) 27 (1978)
providence... ..16 (1987) 30 (2008)
worcester... ... 11 (1987) 24 (2008)
thanksgiving
location record low record minimum high
boston... ... ... 11 (nov 27, 1873) 24 (nov 28, 1901)
hartford... ... .12 (nov 28, 2002) 27 (nov 23, 1989)
providence... ..14 (nov 23, 1972) 30 (nov 28, 1996)
worcester... ... .9 (nov 23, 1989) 22 (nov 23, 1989)
november 23rd
location record low
boston... ... ... 11 (1880)
hartford... ... .12 (1972)
providence... ..14 (1972)
worcester... ... .9 (1989)

Box watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ma... Wind chill advisory until 10 am est this morning for maz002-
008-009.

Ri... None.

Marine... Gale warning until 8 pm est this evening for anz231>235-237-
251.

Gale warning until 5 pm est this afternoon for anz230.

Small craft advisory until 10 pm est this evening for anz236.

Gale warning until 10 pm est this evening for anz250-254>256.

Synopsis... Frank bw
near term... Bw
short term... Bw
long term... Frank
aviation... Frank bw
marine... Frank bw
climate...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
LDLC3 - New London Ledge CT - Ledge Light Weather 12 mi28 min NW 22 G 26 19°F 1025.5 hPa3°F
NLNC3 - 8461490 - New London, CT 13 mi40 min NW 8 G 14 18°F 46°F1025.3 hPa
MTKN6 - 8510560 - Montauk, NY 19 mi40 min 23°F 47°F1025.3 hPa
QPTR1 - 8454049 - Quonset Point, RI 31 mi46 min NW 13 G 18 19°F 50°F1024.4 hPa
NWPR1 - 8452660 - Newport, RI 31 mi40 min NNW 14 G 20 44°F1024.1 hPa
PTCR1 - 8452951 - Potter Cove, Prudence Island, RI 36 mi40 min N 8.9 G 18 1024.4 hPa
NAXR1 - Narragansett Bay Reserve, RI 36 mi73 min NNW 11 19°F 1023 hPa-3°F
CPTR1 - 8452944 - Conimicut Light, RI 39 mi40 min WNW 19 G 26 19°F 47°F1024.2 hPa
PVDR1 41 mi40 min NW 8 G 12 17°F 1024.4 hPa-2°F
FOXR1 - 8454000 - Providence, RI 42 mi40 min N 14 G 20 49°F1024.1 hPa
44039 - Central Long Island Sound 44 mi58 min NNW 21 G 27 24°F 51°F3 ft
BUZM3 - Buzzards Bay, MA 44 mi58 min NW 29 G 36 22°F 1023.2 hPa (+1.6)
44017 - 23 Nautical Miles Southwest of Montauk Point, NY 44 mi68 min NW 27 G 33 27°F 53°F5 ft1024.3 hPa (+1.8)16°F
FRXM3 45 mi40 min 20°F 6°F
44097 - Block Island, RI (154) 45 mi45 min 55°F8 ft
BLTM3 - 8447387 - Borden Flats Light at Fall River, MA 45 mi40 min NNW 11 G 16 20°F 1024.2 hPa
FRVM3 - 8447386 - Fall River, MA 46 mi40 min 47°F1024.4 hPa

Wind History for New London, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Westerly, Westerly State Airport, RI4 mi65 minNW 9 G 2010.00 miFair20°F0°F40%1024.7 hPa
Groton / New London, Groton / New London Airport, CT10 mi2 hrsNW 17 G 2610.00 miFair20°F1°F43%1024 hPa
Block Island State Airport, RI17 mi62 minNW 13 G 2110.00 miA Few Clouds0°F0°F%1024.4 hPa

Wind History from WST (wind in knots)
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1 day agoNE5N55N55N7N8N8N65NW7NW7NW6NW43W3SW3W3NW5NW44NW43Calm
2 days agoN3N3CalmCalmCalm4SW3W5SW4SW4N5N4N4N3N3N4N5N5N4NE6NE8NE5NE5NE5

Tide / Current Tables for Watch Hill Point, Rhode Island (2)
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Watch Hill Point
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:02 AM EST     -0.25 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:43 AM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 06:43 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:21 AM EST     3.25 feet High Tide
Thu -- 01:44 PM EST     -0.26 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 04:22 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 04:26 PM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 07:42 PM EST     2.80 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.1-0.3-0.10.41.11.92.73.23.22.61.810.2-0.2-0.200.61.32.12.72.82.41.80.9

Tide / Current Tables for The Race, Long Island Sound, New York Current
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The Race
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:07 AM EST     -3.14 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 04:09 AM EST     0.01 knots Slack
Thu -- 05:44 AM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 06:44 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:05 AM EST     3.22 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 10:19 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 01:31 PM EST     -3.75 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 04:23 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 04:27 PM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 04:48 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 07:36 PM EST     3.14 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 10:51 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-2.6-3.1-2.8-1.7-0.21.32.63.22.91.90.5-1.1-2.6-3.6-3.6-2.7-1.30.31.933.12.41.2-0.2

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Boston, MA (5,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Boston, MA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.