Thursday, October18, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Derby, CT

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:07AMSunset 6:07PM Thursday October 18, 2018 10:54 PM EDT (02:54 UTC) Moonrise 3:28PMMoonset 12:49AM Illumination 71% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 9 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ335 Long Island Sound West Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 921 Pm Edt Thu Oct 18 2018
.small craft advisory in effect from Friday morning through Saturday afternoon...
Overnight..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Fri..W winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming sw 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Fri night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 1 ft or less, then around 2 ft after midnight. Chance of showers after midnight.
Sat..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Chance of showers in the morning.
Sat night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 1 ft or less, then around 2 ft after midnight.
Sun..NW winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Sun night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt after midnight. Seas around 2 ft in the evening, then 1 ft or less.
Mon..W winds around 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less, then around 2 ft in the afternoon.
Mon night..SW winds around 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Tue..SW winds around 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Tue night..W winds around 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft in the evening, then 1 ft or less.
ANZ300 921 Pm Edt Thu Oct 18 2018
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. High pressure remains in control through Friday, drifting south and east Friday afternoon. A cold front approaches Friday night and pushes off shore Saturday evening. High pressure builds in for the rest of the weekend and pushes off shore Monday followed by a weak clipper like system tracking well north of the waters on Tuesday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Derby, CT
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location: 41.32, -73.08     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 190123
afdokx
area forecast discussion
national weather service new york ny
923 pm edt Thu oct 18 2018

Synopsis
High pressure will remain in control through Friday, drifting
south and east of the area Friday afternoon. A cold front
approaches Friday night. The cold front will sweep across the
area Saturday evening with brisk conditions into Sunday as high
pressure builds from the west. The high will shift off the mid
atlantic coast on Monday followed by a weak clipper like system
tracking through new england on Tuesday. High pressure then
returns for mid week.

Near term until 6 am Friday morning
Dropped low temps across the ERN outlying areas slightly based
on trends. Otherwise, the fcst is on track. Surface high
pressure builds toward the mid atlantic coast tonight. With the
high in the vicinity, winds will continue to diminish, and skies
will be nearly clear. There will be some weak warm advection
tonight at 900 to 850 mb. If winds decouple, and become light,
especially across the interior, temperatures will likely fall to
below freezing. So have kept the freeze warnings and frost
advisories in effect.

Short term 6 am Friday morning through Saturday
High pressure will move off the mid atlantic coast Friday and a
longwave trough with a shortwave rotating into the western
portion moves into the great lakes by the end of the day. One
shortwave moves across the area Friday night ahead of a more
potent wave and associated cold front approaching Saturday. Have
brought chance and slight chance probabilities into the region
with the shortwaves and cold front Friday night into Saturday.

Temperatures will be warm enough for the precipitation to be all
liquid.

Long term Saturday night through Thursday
Global models are in good agreement with the upper pattern
through early next week with fall like weather continuing in the
northeast. Long wave trough axis over the eastern great
lakes ohio valley Sat night will shift east of the new england
coast on Sun with zonal flow briefly developing Mon ahead of the
next shortwave tue. This is where solutions diverge in the
global models. The GFS is more amplified and more progressive
with building heights for the middle of next week while the
ecmwf is broader at h5 with another shortwave diving down from
central canada for thu.

At the sfc, a cold front will sweep across the area Sat eve
with low chances for rain continuing until the upper trough axis
swings through Sat night. Dry and unseasonably cool weather is
then forecast for the remainder of the period, although pops on
tue may increase in subsequent forecast packages if there is a
bit more moisture for a clipper like system to work with in
southern new england. Otherwise, brisk Sat night and Sun due to
the combination of CAA behind the front and a tightening
pressure gradient between strengthening low pres to the north
and a building high to the west.

Aviation 02z Friday through Tuesday
Vfr as high pressure builds to the south of the region into
Friday evening.

Vfr through the TAF period.

Wnw winds withs speeds falling below 10 kt throughout by mid-
late evening. Winds become light and variable tonight except at
kjfk and klga. Winds become wsw- SW at around 10-15kt by mid
Friday morning. Gusts to around 15-20kt are probable at all
terminals by around midday Friday. Gusts could abate outside of
nyc terminals by early Friday evening.

Ny metro enhanced aviation weather support...

detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: http:

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 9 mi54 min NNW 6 G 8.9 43°F 65°F1027.2 hPa (+0.7)
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 11 mi60 min WNW 5.1 G 8.9 42°F 64°F1026.8 hPa
44039 - Central Long Island Sound 26 mi69 min WNW 19 G 25 50°F 66°F4 ft
44040 - Western Long Island Sound 37 mi69 min NW 14 G 18 48°F 1 ft29°F
44069 43 mi54 min NW 9.7 G 12 47°F 55°F31°F
44022 - Execution Rocks 46 mi54 min NW 9.7 G 14 64°F

Wind History for New Haven, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Bridgeport, Sikorsky Memorial Airport, CT10 mi62 minW 810.00 miFair43°F25°F49%1027.1 hPa
New Haven, Tweed-New Haven Airport, CT11 mi61 minNNW 610.00 miFair44°F27°F51%1027 hPa
Oxford, Waterbury-Oxford Airport, CT11 mi63 minN 0 miFair33°F28°F85%1028.5 hPa
Meriden, Meriden Markham Municipal Airport, CT19 mi61 minN 010.00 miFair32°F28°F88%1027.4 hPa
Danbury, Danbury Municipal Airport, CT21 mi61 minWSW 410.00 miFair39°F24°F55%1027.6 hPa

Wind History from BDR (wind in knots)
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Tide / Current Tables for Shelton, Housatonic River, Connecticut
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Shelton
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:50 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 03:44 AM EDT     0.84 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:07 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:44 AM EDT     4.74 feet High Tide
Thu -- 03:27 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 04:07 PM EDT     1.07 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:06 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 09:04 PM EDT     4.93 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.92.11.410.91.52.53.64.54.74.53.93.32.61.91.31.11.42.33.44.54.94.84.3

Tide / Current Tables for Milford Harbor, Connecticut
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Milford Harbor
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:50 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 12:50 AM EDT     1.12 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:01 AM EDT     6.27 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:07 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 01:13 PM EDT     1.43 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 03:27 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 06:06 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 07:21 PM EDT     6.53 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.41.11.62.63.855.96.35.95.14.12.921.41.62.53.64.85.96.56.45.64.53.3

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (22,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.