Tuesday, July17, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Derby, CT

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 5:33AMSunset 8:24PM Tuesday July 17, 2018 1:49 AM EDT (05:49 UTC) Moonrise 10:50AMMoonset 11:40PM Illumination 18% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 4 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ335 Long Island Sound West Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 1034 Pm Edt Mon Jul 16 2018
Overnight..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Tue..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Showers likely with tstms in the afternoon.
Tue night..W winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming nw after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less. Showers and tstms, mainly in the evening.
Wed..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Wed night..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Thu..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Thu night..SW winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Fri..S winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Fri night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sat..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers.
Sat night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
ANZ300 1034 Pm Edt Mon Jul 16 2018
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. High pressure remains offshore tonight. A cold front will approach from the west on Tuesday and move through late in the day into Tuesday night. High pressure builds in for Wednesday through Friday. An area of low pressure then impacts the region for the weekend.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Derby, CT
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location: 41.32, -73.08     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 170234
afdokx
area forecast discussion
national weather service new york ny
1034 pm edt Mon jul 16 2018

Synopsis
High pressure remains offshore tonight. A cold front will approach
from the west on Tuesday and move through late in the day into
Tuesday night. High pressure will build across the region Wednesday
through Thursday, then remain over the region through Friday. The
high will then move offshore on Saturday with low pressure and
its associated warm front approaching for Saturday night into
Sunday. The weakening warm front will then linger near the
region into Monday.

Near term until 6 am Tuesday morning
Forecast is mainly on track. Only changes were to decrease pops
for showers and thunderstorms and to push that timing back a few
hours during the overnight timeframe.

There are still not much of any reflectivity echoes on radar so
no convection has redeveloped yet as surface instability has
been waning this evening compared to earlier. However, on the
other hand, overnight, heights aloft will lower a little more
rapidly with trough approaching and this will lead to more
vertical forcing along with elevated instability. Any showers
and storms will be isolated to scattered in nature and occurring
overnight, primarily inland such as the lower hudson valley and
interior northeast nj where boundaries from earlier convection
that dissipated will serve as a focus for low level convergence.

This is also where heights aloft will be lower.

Otherwise, it will remain muggy tonight with lows in the 70s and
some increase in clouds late tonight. For some locations that
are expected to stay dry and have less clouds such as eastern
long island and southeast connecticut, have some patchy fog
forecast as these locations cool to their dewpoints overnight
into early Tuesday.

Short term 6 am Tuesday morning through Tuesday night
A cold front approaches and is expected to pass through the
tri-state area mostly during the late afternoon to evening
hours. This will bring showers and thunderstorms to the area.

Sbcapes could range 1500-2500 j kg, coinciding with
unidirectional 0-2 km shear of 20-30 kt. Strong wind gusts with
tstms are possible along with a marginal potential for severe
gusts. The main limiting factor for severe weather appears to be
the high moisture content limiting the potential for steep
lapse rates.

Another threat with these showers and storms will be flash
flooding. Very high moisture content will be in place with pwats
around 2.25, a warm cloud layer depth of 13-14 kft, and a
theta-e ridge shifting through. Best chances for heavy rainfall
will be in the afternoon and evening hours when shortwaves and a
llj pass through and tap into this deep moisture. Limiting the
chances of flash flooding will be the forward speed of the cells
as the upper flow will not be aligned with surface cold front,
which will also limit the chances of storm cell training.

Although models signal higher rain totals over the eastern half
of the area, flash flood guidance and antecedent dry conditions
don't support flash flooding there. Any flash flooding would
more likely be localized. After collaboration with the
surrounding office, have decided to hold off on any flash flood
watches. Given the dry pattern we've been in and the convective
nature of the rainfall, have doubts with some of the guidance
that show widespread 1.50
- 2.50 inch accumulations. Will go with the lower side of
guidance for total rainfall.

The remaining concern will be heat indices and the need for
heat advisories. 850mb temps are expected to be similar to
today's however there should be more cloud cover tomorrow in
addition to rain-cooled air. Expecting highs in the mid-upper
80s for the locations currently under a heat advisory. Dewpoints
should however be higher than today's. Forecast dewpoints at
the top of the mixed layer are progged to be 15-16c and a s-sw
wind flow will prevail, so surface dewpoints are not expected to
drop much until after the cold front moves through. Expecting
dewpoints in the mid 70s, leading to heat indices in the mid 90s
for areas within the advisory. This is the only area that's
expected to have 2 consecutive days of 95+ heat indices, so the
advisory will not be expanded in area at this time.

There is a high risk of rip currents for the ocean beaches
Tuesday into Tuesday evening from a 5 ft onshore swell
component and stronger onshore flow.

Long term Wednesday through Monday
An upper level trough will linger across eastern portions of
the region through Wednesday. Have trimmed back any slight
chance pops just a touch from previous forecast, as low level
cold and dry advection as depicted by most modeling should keep
precip chances near a minimum, even for eastern sections. Upper
level ridging will then build Wednesday night through early
Friday. Dry conditions with comfortable humidity levels are
expected during this timeframe.

An upper level trough will then approach out of the upper
midwest and southern canada into the weekend. With high pressure
slipping off the east coast early in the weekend, a humid
southerly flow will return to the region. With upper and mid
level forcing precip chances will increase through the weekend,
and peak by Sunday with a warm front just south and southwest of
the region along with greatest height falls just NW of the
region. The upper level system is then progged to weaken and
fill to some degree on Monday. Forcing should still be
sufficient to carry chance pops across the region. Global
ensemble mean 500 mb height forecasts still indicate some mean
troughing over the eastern CONUS through early next week which
would indicate at a minimum diurnal driven convective chances.

Ensemble viewer indicates pws running about 1.5 to 2 standard
deviations above normal late in the weekend into early next week
as actual pw values should be approaching 1.75 inches during
this time. Too early to get into details, but there may be some
localized pockets of heavier rainfall during this timeframe with
broad deep southerly flow established.

Aviation 03z Tuesday through Saturday
High impact day on Tuesday with numerous showers and
thunderstorms in the afternoon...

low pressure moves through eastern canada overnight, with a
cold front moving into upstate ny and into central pa. The cold
front continues to approach Tuesday, moving through the
terminals late in the afternoon, into early Tuesday evening.

MainlyVFR until scattered showers develop Tuesday morning, and
then a line of thunderstorms impacts the terminals Tuesday
afternoon, with MVFR conditions and gusty winds of 30-35 kt
possible in the stronger thunderstorms.

MVFR to ifr conditions are possible east of the nyc metro
terminals overnight with stratus and fog developing. At 02z
there were already areas of ifr ceilings along the southeastern
connecticut coast into southern rhode island. Kgon will most
likely be impacted with stratus and fog overnight into Tuesday
morning.

S to SW winds around 10 kt increase up to 15 kt Tuesday morning,
with occasional gusts up to 20 kt.

Outlook for 00z Wednesday through Saturday
Tuesday night Widespread showers tstms likely with MVFR or
lower conditions. Showers and tstms ending during the evening
with conditions improving toVFR. A cold front moves through
with winds shifting to the nw.

Wednesday-Saturday Vfr.

Marine
Ocean seas tonight so far remain near 3 ft with gusts between
15-20 kt over the ocean and less over the non-ocean waters. The
forecast remains mainly on track.

Sub-sca conditions continue to prevail tonight with light winds
and seas below 5 ft. Winds and seas then increase Tuesday ahead
of a cold front. SCA conds expected on the ocean waters by mid-
morning and lasting into Tuesday night.

Lingering s-se swell component may result in SCA conditions due to
seas for eastern ocean waters during Wednesday afternoon and
evening. Otherwise, sub SCA conditions will persist through Friday
as high pressure builds across the coastal waters with a light
pressure gradient. High pressure will then move east and northeast
of the coastal waters on Saturday resulting in an increasing se
swell component. This could result in small craft conditions due to
high seas for the ocean waters by Sunday.

Hydrology
Showers an thunderstorms will be capable of producing locally
heavy rain with the potential for primarily minor urban poor
drainage and small stream flooding. The best overall chances for
flooding will be Tuesday afternoon into evening. While not
likely to be widespread, localized flash flooding cannot be
ruled out. The convective nature of this event will produce a
wide range of total accumulated rainfall. Most spots probably
end up with around a half inch of rain with amounts ranging up
to 1.50 inches less common. Isolated amounts of 2 to 2.50 inches
are possible.

No hydrologic impacts are expected Wednesday through Monday.

Equipment
Nyc NOAA weather radio station kwo-35 (162.55 mhz) remains off
the air for an extended period of time.

Okx watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ny... Heat advisory until 6 pm edt Tuesday for nyz072>075-176-178.

High rip current risk from 6 am edt Tuesday through Tuesday
evening for nyz075-080-081-178-179.

Nj... Heat advisory until 6 pm edt Tuesday for njz004-006-103>108.

Marine... Small craft advisory from 8 am Tuesday to midnight edt Tuesday
night for anz353-355.

Small craft advisory from 8 am Tuesday to 6 am edt Wednesday
for anz350.

Synopsis... Jc je
near term... Jc jm
short term... Jc
long term... Je
aviation... 19
marine... Jc je jm
hydrology... Jc je
equipment...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 9 mi31 min SSE 4.1 G 7 75°F 78°F1013.1 hPa
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 11 mi37 min SSW 2.9 G 6 76°F 73°F1012.4 hPa
44039 - Central Long Island Sound 26 mi79 min SW 12 G 16 75°F 2 ft
44040 - Western Long Island Sound 37 mi49 min SSW 9.7 G 9.7 76°F 71°F
44069 43 mi49 min SW 18 G 23 77°F 80°F76°F

Wind History for New Haven, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Bridgeport, Sikorsky Memorial Airport, CT10 mi57 minWSW 310.00 miFair76°F71°F85%1013 hPa
New Haven, Tweed-New Haven Airport, CT11 mi56 minN 010.00 miFair75°F72°F90%1013.2 hPa
Oxford, Waterbury-Oxford Airport, CT11 mi58 minS 310.00 miFair72°F70°F94%1014.7 hPa
Meriden, Meriden Markham Municipal Airport, CT19 mi56 minS 310.00 miA Few Clouds74°F70°F88%1013 hPa
Danbury, Danbury Municipal Airport, CT21 mi56 minN 09.00 miFair74°F71°F91%1013.2 hPa

Wind History from BDR (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE3E3SE3CalmS45Calm3SE10SE8S8S12S10S7CalmSW6SW5S4SW3
1 day agoW4W3W6W5SW7SW8SW6SW5SW8SW11SW12SW10SW10SW11SW8SW8SW9SW5SW5W4W4SW5SW5SW4
2 days agoS5S3S5SW7SW7SW5SW5SW5SW8SW10S8SW8S55E9E8E5S8S7E3CalmN6W3W5

Tide / Current Tables for Shelton, Housatonic River, Connecticut
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Shelton
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Tue -- 04:41 AM EDT     5.65 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:33 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 10:50 AM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 12:12 PM EDT     -0.37 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:15 PM EDT     5.55 feet High Tide
Tue -- 08:22 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 11:40 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-0.10.82.44.15.45.65.24.33.120.90-0.401.43.14.75.55.44.83.82.71.60.7

Tide / Current Tables for Milford Harbor, Connecticut
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Milford Harbor
Click for Map
Tue -- 02:58 AM EDT     7.48 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:34 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 09:18 AM EDT     -0.49 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 10:50 AM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 03:32 PM EDT     7.35 feet High Tide
Tue -- 08:22 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 09:47 PM EDT     -0.07 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 11:40 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
3.95.777.56.95.53.71.90.4-0.4-0.212.74.66.27.27.26.34.831.40.3-0.10.6

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (1,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.