Weekapaug, RI Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Weekapaug, RI

May 9, 2024 10:14 PM EDT (02:14 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 5:32 AM   Sunset 7:55 PM
Moonrise 6:13 AM   Moonset 10:16 PM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

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Marine Forecasts
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ANZ237 Block Island Sound- 1005 Pm Edt Thu May 9 2024

Overnight - E winds around 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: se 3 ft at 5 seconds and E 1 foot at 10 seconds. Showers likely.

Fri - NE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Wave detail: E 3 ft at 5 seconds and S 2 ft at 7 seconds. Showers likely, mainly in the morning.

Fri night - NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt in the evening. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Wave detail: E 3 ft at 5 seconds and E 2 ft at 9 seconds.

Sat - NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Wave detail: E 3 ft at 5 seconds and S 2 ft at 8 seconds.

Sat night - NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: E 3 ft at 8 seconds and ne 2 ft at 5 seconds.

Sun and Sun night - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Wave detail: S 2 ft at 8 seconds and E 2 ft at 8 seconds.

Mon through Tue - SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.

Tue night - S winds around 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A chance of showers.
seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.

ANZ200 1005 Pm Edt Thu May 9 2024

Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters - High pressure to our north coupled with an offshore low pressure system will generate a northeast flow of air across the waters through the weekend. A ridge of high pressure briefly builds across the waters on Monday before a cold front approaches the waters by the middle of next week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Weekapaug, RI
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Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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FXUS61 KBOX 100210 AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 1010 PM EDT Thu May 9 2024

SYNOPSIS
Some showers are possible this evening into early Friday as low pressure tracks to the south, otherwise drier and cooler for much of Friday as NE winds develop. Cooler than normal this weekend with rain chances increasing Saturday night and Sunday, then milder temperatures return early next week but an unsettled pattern persists.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/
10 PM update...

Scattered light showers spreading east into western SNE as area of deep moisture moves into the region ahead of mid level low across eastern Gt Lakes. Focus for showers tonight will be across SW half of SNE from western MA into RI and south coast where best moisture is present. Moisture decreases to the north and east so any showers will be spotty across north central and especially NE MA.

Previous discussion...

Caught under cyclonic flow with a shortwave trough lifting from the OH Valley into southern New England late tonight. Low pressure slides into the Mid Atlantic.

Could see isolated to scattered showers and perhaps brief periods of steady rain to the north/northeast of the low sliding south of our region. NBM probabilities appeared much too high, especially compared to latest obs. Leaned heavily on latest HRRR guidance, but in particular the NSSL WRF. This is doing well compared to obs so far. Anticipate showers spreading in from west to east. Best shot for 0.10" or greater is across western MA/CT. Elsewhere totals should remain below 0.10". The area of highest precip also coincides with where PWATs approach 1 inch.

Prolonged onshore flow will bring us cooler temps tonight. Lows will be in the 40s.

SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
745 PM Update...

Highlights

* Showers during the AM, especially for the MA-Pike south.
Should gradually diminish as high pressure builds in.

* Dry and quiet weather Friday night, though a few spotty showers/drizzle possible over portions of the immediate south coast.

Still in cyclonic flow through this timeframe. A broad trough in place over the central/eastern Great Lakes early on Fri. This digs into the Mid Atlantic/Appalachians by late in the day.
Behind the trough a shortwave ridge builds into the eastern Great Lakes. Low pressure remains south of our region on Fri and slides further offshore on Fri as high pressure nudges in from the north.

Main change in the latest update was to deviate from the NBM and show decreasing chances of showers, especially across much of MA as high pressure builds in. Consensus of guidance showing a dry forecast especially with the upper/lower forcing more to our S/SE. Showers could linger across portions of the south coast late in the afternoon/Fri night, but wanted to show more of a downward trend. Not out of the question there is some spotty drizzle given the onshore flow into early Sat.

On top of the shower chances have also deviated from the NBM on wind speeds/gusts. We've got a fairly decent 20-30 kt ENE/NE low level jet developing near Long Island and perhaps into Nantucket. Should not be terribly difficult to mix down per Bufkit soundings, so have bumped up our wind speeds/gusts. Think there could be some 20-25 mph gusts during Fri afternoon, especially across RI and SE MA. Temperatures looked fine in previous update, so have stuck with widespread 50s and perhaps some low 60s in the CT River Valley.

Bit of a right turn on the forecast for Friday night. High pressure building in, so have gone with a dry forecast. There could be some spotty drizzle, but the NBM was way too high with PoPs for eastern MA heading into early Sat. Should have a fair amount of cloud cover until toward daybreak Sat. Lows in the 40s.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
Highlights

* Dry for much of Sat, but there could be some spotty showers across the interior late.

* Hit or miss showers and perhaps a few rumbles of thunder on Sun.
Could have some graupel/small hail with any stronger storms.

* Dry for much of Mon with a return of seasonable temps.

* Unsettled late Mon into midweek as a frontal boundary slides through. Though there is considerable uncertainty in how exactly things will evolve.

Saturday...

Stuck under cyclonic flow through this timeframe with a trough over the central Great Lakes early on Sat and a shortwave ridge over the eastern Great Lakes/Mid Atlantic. The shortwave ridge builds into southern New England by the afternoon, while the trough digs into the eastern Great Lakes/Mid Atlantic. The ridge axis slides offshore Sat eve. A weak high nudges into our region through much of this timeframe. A broad low slides into the eastern Great Lakes late in the day.

Overall anticipating that the weather will be dry and quiet for much of the day albeit still unseasonably cool due to onshore flow. The onshore flow coupled with height falls later on Sat and diurnal heating could bring some spotty showers during the afternoon. Not super confident on this as forcing is quite weak and AOA measurable 24 hr QPF probs continue to diminish per EPS/GEFS and GEPS guidance from run to run.

Should have fairly cool air in place with onshore flow. At this point 925 hPa temps range from roughly 1-8 degrees Celsius with the mildest temps across the Berkshires. The NBM temps actually seemed pretty dialed in at this point, so haven't made any changes. Highs range from the low 50s along the east coast to the low 60s across the CT River Valley.

Sunday...

The trough over the eastern Great Lakes late on Sat will lift into and perhaps through portions of New England during this period.
There is potential that we get a cutoff beginning to set up over the region. A broad low will be in place nearby or over southern New England during this timeframe.

Think this is our next opportunity for hit/miss showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms. We really do not have a whole lot of moisture to work with as EPS/NAEFS situational awareness tables indicating that PWATs are around -0.5 to -1 STD below model climo. This translates to PWATs roughly around 0.5". Though we do have anomalously low 500 hPa height overhead (-2 STD per both SATA tables). The 500 hPa trough/cutoff overhead is also quite cold with temps of -20 to -25 degrees Celsius. This in combination with diurnal heating should result in hit/miss shower and thunderstorm activity. Given the cold core in place do think there could be some graupel/small hail if any more vigorous showers/storms can develop. Should note that mid level lapse rates are around 5-7 degrees Celsius with low level lapse rates around 5-8 degrees Celsius. Though these lapse rates really depend on the deterministic model being viewed, so there is considerable uncertainty given the weak forcing. Deep layer shear in the 0-6 km layer is quite low at this point, so not anticipating any strong/severe storms. Though given the environment think there could be some small hail pending how much instability is in place.

The longer term convective allowing guidance, ie the NCAR MPAS and C- SHiELD do show max vertically integrated graupel spottiness over the Northeast of 0.1 to roughly 0.5 inches. Though again appears very hit/miss in nature. Could have a bit of MUCAPE in place, but guidance all over the place. Most robust is with the NCAR MPAS with a few hundred J/kg over western MA/CT. Stay tuned for future updates.

Monday through Wednesday...

Still caught under cyclonic flow through this timeframe with a cutoff in place over Quebec/Ontario/Hudson Bay. A ridge axis flattens out as it is building into the Mid Atlantic on Mon. A shortwave begins lifting in on Tue and behind it a deeper trough may slide in for Wed. A weak high nudges in for a good portion of Monday before a frontal boundary slides in late in the day. The front may still be sliding in on Tue or overhead and into Wed.

Dry and quiet weather anticipated for much of Mon with high pressure nudging into our region from offshore of the Mid Atlantic. Late in the day some guidance begins sliding a front in, but lots of discrepancy here. So, have just stuck with the NBM at this point in time. We should rebound temp wise quite nicely to more seasonable values, ie readings in the 60s to low 70s.

The front will still be overhead and perhaps working its way through on Tue/Wed. Though there is a lot of uncertainty in how things evolve as a deeper low could ride along the front bringing us heavier rains or kicking the front offshore. Ensemble guidance is also spread with the EPS a bit more amped up (like the ECWMF) with moderate/high probs (30-80 percent) of 24 hr QPF AOA 0.5 inches into Wed. The GEPS/GEFS show low probs (10-30 percent) of the same QPF binning. The EPS even showing some low probs of 24 hr QPF AOA 1 inch. Something to keep an eye on as we get closer, but for now think that the NBM suffices. Temperatures trending near to above normal through this period.

AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
Forecast Confidence Levels:

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Tonight...High confidence.

VFR to start across all terminals. Will see MVFR ceilings spreading in from west to east as scattered showers/rain spreads in. Timing wise is generally looking like 02-04Z, but a few spots may take a bit longer. Could see some IFR conditions as well, but think this risk is highest across ACK and the eastern slopes of the Berkshires. Winds out of the ENE/NE at 5-10 kts.

Friday...High confidence in trends, moderate in timing.

MVFR to start for most terminals, but will gradually trend to VFR from NE to SW as drier air pushes in. Could have some lingering showers for the MA-Pike South into the afternoon. Will take the longest for showers to clear along the south coast.
Winds ENE/NE at 10-15 kts. Could see some 15-25 kt gusts along the immediate south coast.

Friday Night...High confidence.

VFR everywhere except for the Cape/Islands where MVFR ceilings may linger. There could also still be some spotty showers/drizzle over the Cape/Islands to start, but the trend should be downward as the night progresses. Will have NE winds diminishing.

KBOS TAF...High confidence in TAF.

KBDL TAF...High confidence in TAF.

Outlook /Saturday through Tuesday/...

Saturday: VFR. Breezy. Slight chance SHRA.

Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA.

Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA, isolated TSRA.

Sunday Night: VFR.

Monday through Monday Night: VFR. Breezy. Slight chance SHRA.

Tuesday: VFR. Breezy. Chance SHRA, isolated TSRA.

MARINE
Forecaster Confidence Levels:

Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Through Friday night...

Northeast winds below 20 kt may increase with gusts 20-25 kt tonight into Fri, especially over south coastal waters as low pres tracks to the south. Seas build to 5 ft over the southern and eastern outer waters Friday AM into Friday night. Due to this have hoisted a SCA in the latest update.

Outlook /Saturday through Tuesday/...

Saturday through Sunday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers.

Sunday Night through Monday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.

Monday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers.

Tuesday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers, isolated thunderstorms.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
High astronomical tides coupled with onshore flow may result in some splashover/very minor coastal flooding during the overnight high tide cycle tonight. However, wind/waves do not appear high enough to result in a significant issue. The daytime high tides are lower and do not pose a threat for coastal flooding.

BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM Friday to 8 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ254>256.




Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesinHgDewPt
LDLC3 - New London Ledge CT - Ledge Light Weather 17 mi150 min E 12G13 53°F
NLHC3 18 mi75 min 54°F 57°F29.79
MTKN6 - 8510560 - Montauk, NY 22 mi75 min 51°F 51°F29.74
NWPR1 - 8452660 - Newport, RI 26 mi75 min ENE 6G7 53°F 53°F29.82
QPTR1 - 8454049 - Quonset Point, RI 26 mi75 min SE 4.1G5.1 53°F 29.82
PDVR1 27 mi75 min ESE 5.1G7 54°F 29.8050°F
NAXR1 - Narragansett Bay Reserve, RI 31 mi90 min S 4.1 55°F 29.8048°F
PRUR1 31 mi75 min 54°F 47°F
PTCR1 - 8452951 - Potter Cove, Prudence Island, RI 31 mi75 min ESE 6G8.9 55°F 29.84
CPTR1 - 8452944 - Conimicut Light, RI 35 mi75 min NNE 12G13 53°F 55°F29.82
PVDR1 37 mi75 min ENE 8G13 55°F 29.8445°F
FOXR1 - 8454000 - Providence, RI 38 mi75 min E 8G13 54°F 56°F29.83
44085 39 mi75 min 51°F 50°F3 ft
BUZM3 - Buzzards Bay, MA 39 mi75 min E 8.9G9.9 51°F 29.83
FRXM3 40 mi75 min 54°F 46°F
BLTM3 - 8447387 - Borden Flats Light at Fall River, MA 41 mi75 min E 6G7 54°F 29.83
FRVM3 - 8447386 - Fall River, MA 41 mi75 min 55°F 54°F29.84
44097 - Block Island, RI (154) 42 mi79 min 50°F3 ft


Wind History for Newport, RI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherTempDewPtRHinHg
KWST WESTERLY STATE,RI 3 sm21 minE 0610 smA Few Clouds52°F46°F82%29.82
KBID BLOCK ISLAND STATE,RI 15 sm18 minE 1010 smClear48°F46°F93%29.82
KGON GROTONNEW LONDON,CT 15 sm18 minE 1010 smA Few Clouds54°F48°F82%29.80
KMTP MONTAUK,NY 19 sm20 minno data--54°F46°F77%29.82
Link to 5 minute data for KWST


Wind History from WST
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Tide / Current for Watch Hill Point, Rhode Island
   
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Watch Hill Point
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Thu -- 04:19 AM EDT     -0.42 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:34 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 06:14 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 10:08 AM EDT     2.73 feet High Tide
Thu -- 04:10 PM EDT     -0.28 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:53 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 10:16 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 10:31 PM EDT     3.39 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Watch Hill Point, Rhode Island, Tide feet
12
am
2.3
1
am
1.3
2
am
0.5
3
am
-0.1
4
am
-0.4
5
am
-0.3
6
am
0.1
7
am
0.8
8
am
1.7
9
am
2.4
10
am
2.7
11
am
2.5
12
pm
2
1
pm
1.2
2
pm
0.4
3
pm
-0.1
4
pm
-0.3
5
pm
-0.2
6
pm
0.3
7
pm
1
8
pm
1.9
9
pm
2.8
10
pm
3.3
11
pm
3.3


Tide / Current for The Race, Long Island Sound, New York Current
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The Race
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Thu -- 12:38 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 03:47 AM EDT     -4.07 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 05:35 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 06:15 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 07:09 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 09:58 AM EDT     3.27 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 01:14 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 04:09 PM EDT     -3.30 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 07:13 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 07:54 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 10:10 PM EDT     3.33 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 10:16 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

The Race, Long Island Sound, New York Current, knots
12
am
1.1
1
am
-0.7
2
am
-2.5
3
am
-3.7
4
am
-4.1
5
am
-3.4
6
am
-2
7
am
-0.3
8
am
1.5
9
am
2.8
10
am
3.3
11
am
2.9
12
pm
1.9
1
pm
0.4
2
pm
-1.3
3
pm
-2.7
4
pm
-3.3
5
pm
-3
6
pm
-1.9
7
pm
-0.4
8
pm
1.3
9
pm
2.7
10
pm
3.3
11
pm
3


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Boston, MA,




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