Wednesday, May22, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Weekapaug, RI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 5:20AMSunset 8:07PM Wednesday May 22, 2019 4:42 PM EDT (20:42 UTC) Moonrise 11:48PMMoonset 8:27AM Illumination 85% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 19 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ237 Block Island Sound- 435 Pm Edt Wed May 22 2019
.small craft advisory in effect from Thursday afternoon through Friday morning...
Tonight..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 3 ft.
Thu..S winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Scattered showers in the afternoon.
Thu night..SW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas around 6 ft. Numerous showers, mainly in the evening. Vsby 1 to 3 nm after midnight.
Fri..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft.
Fri night..NE winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt, becoming N 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Sat..W winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming sw 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas around 2 ft.
Sat night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A chance of showers. Vsby 1 to 3 nm after midnight.
Sun..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas around 4 ft. A chance of showers in the morning with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sun night..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, becoming nw 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Seas around 3 ft.
Mon..NW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming sw in the afternoon. Seas around 2 ft.
Mon night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming nw with gusts up to 20 kt after midnight. Seas around 2 ft. A chance of showers after midnight. Seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.
ANZ200 435 Pm Edt Wed May 22 2019
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters.. High pres builds over the waters tonight then shifts offshore on Thu. A cold front sweeps across the waters late Thu night and early Fri followed by gusty nw/n winds Fri. High pres builds over new eng Fri night, moving south of the waters Sat. Another cold front will move across the waters late Sun or Sun night. High pres builds briefly over the waters on Mon. For information on possible hazardous weather beyond the 24-36 hour forecast period, please visit www.weather.gov/boston and follow the current hazards link above the map on the left.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Weekapaug, RI
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location: 41.33, -71.76     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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Fxus61 kbox 222012
afdbox
area forecast discussion
national weather service boston norton ma
412 pm edt Wed may 22 2019

Synopsis
A few showers are possible late tonight into early Thursday as a warm
front approaches. Showers and scattered thunderstorms late Thursday
into Thursday night ahead of a sweeping cold front. A bit windy on
Friday, especially across CAPE cod and nantucket as low pressure
moves east of the canadian maritimes. Much of Saturday looks dry with
pleasant temperatures, but a fast moving disturbance will probably
bring a period of showers late Saturday into early Sunday. The rest
of Sunday into memorial day looks to be mainly dry, but an approaching
warm front may bring some showers by Tuesday.

Near term until 6 am Thursday morning
4 pm update ...

not too many changes. Reaching highs this hour and as expected given
highs around 70 that were observed yesterday, most locations today
topped out around the low 70s as the airmass aloft was relatively
unchanged. Cooler along the coast given winds that diminished allowing
onshore flow. Boston this hour as a chilly 60 while just a few miles
inland it's 70.

Deep boundary layer mixing up to h8 (4-5 kft). Still a good pressure
gradient aloft as a storm system exits off SE canada and hudson bay
high pressure builds s. Decent N winds persist with variable gusts
10 to 15 mph over most of S new england. Winds should continue to
diminish going into evening. Mid to high clouds on the increase out
of the W with isentropic ascent along a lifting warm front ongoing
over the E great lakes.

Tonight ...

mostly dry and mild. A chance of scattered light showers into the
w ct river valley towards Thursday morning. Mid-high level clouds
thickening and lowering towards morning with enhancing isentropic
upslope along the w-periphery of departing high pressure ridge se
of new england. Still a measure of lingering dry air and subsidence
inferred from forecast model soundings. Will keep chance pops in
far W ma and ct as there is some confidence of upslope precipitation
along the lifting warm front from the oh river valley to reach the
surface, albeit light, just a trace to a hundredth of outcomes by
daybreak Thursday.

Short term 6 am Thursday morning through Thursday night
4 pm update ...

some concern given faster timing of the sweeping cold front, perhaps
destabilization over SW new england prior to that'll be enough to
break the cap along with lift preceding the sweeping cold front. 15z
sref has extended probabilities further into S new england across
ct. Perhaps an artifact of a tongue of higher thermal-instability
and sub-tropical moisture driving N into the hudson valley along
which the cold front will intersect and invigorate multi-cellular
clusters into a squall-line as the 12z NAM nest suggests. Figure
we'll have to evaluate the morning environment with early onset
over-running and light shower activity. See how the cloud deck
evolves and if there are any breaks into the daylight hours. From
there an analysis on the mesoscale environment and convective
parameters. Still confidence that much of S new england will still
see widespread showers with embedded heavier elements, rumbles of
thunder, and gusty winds.

Thursday into Thursday night ...

late afternoon into evening widespread showers with embedded heavier
showers, possible thunderstorms. Confident heavy rain, however lower
confidence with regards to strong to severe weather, particularly
strong to damaging winds and the possibility of a tornado, albeit a
low risk.

Synoptically, n-conus low occlusion ejecting E with attendant h3 jet
streak. Preceding warm front, broadscale 295-300k surface isentropic
ascent, expect scattered morning showers along a convergent nose of
a h8-9 low-level jet with increasing thetae. Clouds linger with high
pressure se, subsequent surface onshore S flow beneath a h9-8 warm
nose with h85 temperatures +14c prior to a sweeping cold front over
s new england around midnight overnight. Big question is whether we
can destabilize over S new england beforehand. Surface low ejecting
over N new england around evening beneath the left front quadrant of
a parent h3 jet streak. Potent h5 vortmax digs across new england as
a W jet throughout the column races E with drier air on the backside
of the aforementioned trailing cold front.

Mesoscale, again, big question is whether we can destabilize, more
so if temperatures warm into the 70s. Clouds, capped by a warm-nose
around h9, and maritime onshore s-flow will limit the environmental
potential along with the late-day into evening event. Noting strong
w shear and low-level helicity, however weak instability in an over-
all saturated moist-adiabatic, convectively unstable environment on
the order of 500 j kg as the cold front sweeps through. Convective
indices met or exceeded in tandem. And with the strong, dry W jet
that looks to impinge rearward of the cold front, its a question as
to whether synoptic influences will erode storm-top development or
enhancement.

Agree with SPC outlook in limiting the strong to severe potential to
the e. Confidence on widespread showers with embedded heavier rain,
some rumbles of thunder. Not ruling out the potential for a strong,
perhaps even a severe thunderstorm. Noting the environment above,
any severe weather threats would mainly be strong to damaging winds
with the very low risk of a tornado. Freezing levels to 10 kft and
precipitable waters to 1.5 inches with both synoptic and convective
support, will also have to watch for heavy rainers and localized
flooding.

Final note, storm attributes from href along with severe parameters
and probabilities from SREF as well as cips analogs not only are
pushing the system through faster per dprog dt but also put the
highest confidence on outcomes SW of our area. SPC has shifted their
d2 outlook accordingly. If anywhere in S new england where there is
the potential for strong to severe weather, seemingly it would be
across W new england into the ct river valley.

Clearing out and drying out overnight with breezy W NW winds that'll
follow. Given the midnight timing, not expecting lows to drop down
significantly, will hold in the 50s.

Long term Friday through Wednesday
Highlights...

* a bit windy on Fri with perhaps a couple of showers near the coast
* pleasant temperatures Sat with dry weather most of the day
* a period of showers likely sometime late Sat into early sun
probably followed by a mainly dry warm Sun afternoon
* memorial day looks mainly dry with nice temperatures
* a period of showers Tue with a warm front might be followed by
rather warm temperatures by wed
details...

Friday...

amplifying shortwave east of northern new england coupled with a
decent north to northwest LLJ should result in a breezy to windy
Friday. The majority of the day should be dry, but a few showers
may develop along the coast as the flow turns nne. Overall, expect
northwest wind gusts of 25 to 35 mph, but a bit stronger on the
cape nantucket as the flow turns northerly. High temperatures should
mainly be in the upper 60s to the lower 70s. It will be cooler
across the outer-cape nantucket.

Saturday...

as the shortwave departs, rising height fields will result in milder
temperatures. Highs should recover well into the 70s away from any
localized sea breezes on the coast. We may see showers arrive
across interior ma late in the day ahead of the next shortwave, but
overall think much of the day ends up dry.

Saturday night and Sunday...

the shortwave should cross the region Sat night into early sun,
probably resulting in a period of showers. Things could certainly
change in this time range, but appears the bulk of the activity
might be over by Sun afternoon. In fact, westerly flow and a
relatively mild start may push highs well up into the 70s to the
lower 80s.

Memorial day through Wednesday...

a ridge of high pressure may result in mainly a dry memorial day
with pleasant temperatures. An approaching warm front may bring
some showers tue, followed by the potential for mainly dry warm
conditions by wed. Of course this is a long way out, so
certainly subject to change.

Aviation 20z Wednesday through Monday
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Thursday night ... High confidence.

20z update (no changes) ...

rest of today ...

vfr. N winds around 10 kts, gusting at times. Sea-breezes ongoing
will push inland towards evening resulting in a prevailing S se
wind.

Tonight ...

cigs lowering to low-endVFR. Possibly MVFR along the berkshires
by morning. Sct -shra mainly over the W ct river valley 9z-12z.

Not expecting any vsby issues. S winds strongest along the s-coast.

Thursday into Thursday night ...

low-endVFR CIGS becoming MVFR with high terrain ifr around 21z-3z.

Forecast widespread -shra with embedded +ra and possible tsra. Tsra
could include gusty W winds. Vsby issues with +ra down to ifr. Other-
wise, 15-20 kt SW winds prevail, gusts up to 25 kts especially along
the s-coast will back W remaining brisk around 6-9z with conditions
improving.

Kbos terminal...

sea breeze ongoing. Will remain around 12-14 kts at 090-120 through
evening.

Kbdl terminal...

high confidence in taf.

Outlook Friday through Monday ...

Friday: windy with gusts up to 35 kt. Slight chance shra.

Friday night: windy with areas of gusts up to 35 kt.

Saturday: breezy.

Saturday night: breezy. Chance shra.

Sunday: breezy. Slight chance shra.

Sunday night through memorial day: slight chance shra.

Marine
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Thursday night ... High confidence.

4 pm update ...

rest of today ...

n winds relaxing as high pressure builds into the waters. Small
craft advisories have been allowed to drop. Near-shore sea-breezes
have developed around 10 kts. Will see a S SE wind trend emerge
over all waters into this evening.

Tonight ...

high pressure SE as a warm front approaches from the w. Winds will
still be a bit brisk along the near-shore waters overnight with
around 10 to 15 kts sustained. Seas remaining below 5 feet.

Thursday into Thursday night ...

cold front sweeping the waters after midnight into Friday morning
ahead of which widespread rain showers are to be anticipated, some
of which will be heavy at times and there's the possibility of
lightning. S SW winds increasing ahead of the front, around 20 kts
sustained with gusts up to 30 kts ... Will back out of the W with
frontal passage remaining breezy around 15 kts with gusts around
20 kts. Waves building up to 6 to 8 feet on the outer waters.

Small craft advisories issued accordingly.

Outlook Friday through Monday ...

Friday: low risk for gale force winds with gusts up to 35 kt.

Areas of rough seas. Slight chance of rain showers.

Friday night: low risk for small craft advisory winds with
gusts up to 30 kt. Local rough seas.

Saturday: winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.

Saturday night: moderate risk for small craft advisory winds
with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Chance of rain
showers.

Sunday: low risk for small craft advisory winds with gusts up
to 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers.

Sunday night: winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching
5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers.

Memorial day: winds less than 25 kt. Slight chance of rain
showers.

Box watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ma... None.

Ri... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory from 2 pm Thursday to 5 am edt Friday for
anz231>234-236-251.

Small craft advisory from 2 pm Thursday to 8 am edt Friday for
anz235-237-250-254>256.

Synopsis... Frank sipprell
near term... Sipprell
short term... Sipprell
long term... Frank
aviation... Frank sipprell
marine... Frank sipprell


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
LDLC3 - New London Ledge CT - Ledge Light Weather 17 mi48 min SSE 9.9 G 11 57°F 1022.5 hPa49°F
NLNC3 - 8461490 - New London, CT 18 mi49 min S 8.9 G 14
MTKN6 - 8510560 - Montauk, NY 22 mi49 min 59°F 55°F1023 hPa
NWPR1 - 8452660 - Newport, RI 26 mi49 min S 11 G 15 59°F 52°F1023.1 hPa
QPTR1 - 8454049 - Quonset Point, RI 26 mi49 min S 17 G 20 58°F 58°F1022.8 hPa
NAXR1 - Narragansett Bay Reserve, RI 31 mi118 min E 4.1 69°F 1022 hPa43°F
PRUR1 31 mi49 min 59°F 43°F
PTCR1 - 8452951 - Potter Cove, Prudence Island, RI 31 mi49 min SW 8.9 G 15 60°F 1022.9 hPa
CPTR1 - 8452944 - Conimicut Light, RI 35 mi49 min S 21 G 24 59°F1022.2 hPa
FOXR1 - 8454000 - Providence, RI 38 mi49 min NNE 9.9 G 13 71°F 55°F1021.5 hPa
BLTM3 - 8447387 - Borden Flats Light at Fall River, MA 40 mi49 min W 9.9 G 17 69°F 1021.9 hPa
FRXM3 40 mi49 min 66°F
FRVM3 - 8447386 - Fall River, MA 41 mi49 min 69°F 59°F1022.5 hPa
44097 - Block Island, RI (154) 42 mi43 min 54°F2 ft
44017 - 23 Nautical Miles Southwest of Montauk Point, NY 47 mi43 min S 7.8 G 9.7 57°F 55°F1023.6 hPa48°F

Wind History for New London, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Westerly, Westerly State Airport, RI3 mi50 minS 1010.00 miFair64°F39°F41%1023 hPa
Block Island State Airport, RI14 mi47 minS 1210.00 miFair61°F46°F58%1023.6 hPa
Groton / New London, Groton / New London Airport, CT15 mi47 minSSE 910.00 miFair64°F46°F52%1022.5 hPa
Montauk, Montauk Airport, NY19 mi49 minS 7 mi62°F43°F50%1023.4 hPa

Wind History from WST (wind in knots)
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6NW3NW63CalmW33CalmNW5NW434NW9
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1 day agoSW12SW7SW7SW5SW4SW3CalmCalmNW8NW9
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2 days agoS8S11S8S7S5S5S6S9S10S10S6SW3SW9SW8SW12
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Tide / Current Tables for Watch Hill Point, Rhode Island
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Watch Hill Point
Click for Map
Wed -- 05:22 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 06:00 AM EDT     0.08 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 08:28 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 11:52 AM EDT     2.42 feet High Tide
Wed -- 05:46 PM EDT     0.27 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 08:05 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 11:47 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.92.51.81.10.50.20.10.20.61.11.82.32.42.21.61.10.60.30.30.40.81.31.92.5

Tide / Current Tables for The Race, Long Island Sound, New York Current
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The Race
Click for Map
Wed -- 02:23 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 05:23 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 05:32 AM EDT     -3.27 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 08:29 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 08:54 AM EDT     0.01 knots Slack
Wed -- 11:39 AM EDT     2.59 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 03:02 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 05:55 PM EDT     -2.61 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 08:06 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 09:02 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 11:48 PM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 11:51 PM EDT     2.48 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.51.70.5-0.9-2.3-3.1-3.2-2.4-1.30.11.52.42.52.11.20.1-1.3-2.3-2.6-2.2-1.2-01.22.2

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Wind Forecast for Boston, MA (16,3,4,5)
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.