Sunrise 5:39 AM   Sunset 7:48 PM Moonrise 3:25 AM   Moonset 2:32 PM

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ANZ237 Block Island Sound- 105 Am Edt Fri May 3 2024
Rest of tonight - NE winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: ne 2 ft at 3 seconds and S 2 ft at 6 seconds. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm. Fri - NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, becoming E 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: ne 2 ft at 4 seconds and S 1 ft at 5 seconds. Fri night - E winds 5 to 10 kt, diminishing to around 5 kt after midnight. Seas around 2 ft. Wave detail: E 2 ft at 5 seconds and S 1 ft at 5 seconds. Sat - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 foot or less, then around 2 ft in the afternoon. Wave detail: E 1 ft at 5 seconds and S 1 ft at 5 seconds, becoming E 2 ft at 4 seconds and se 1 ft at 11 seconds. A chance of. Sat night and Sun - SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Wave detail: se 2 ft at 4 seconds and se 1 ft at 11 seconds. A chance of showers. Sun night - SE winds around 10 kt, becoming S after midnight. Seas around 2 ft. Wave detail: se 2 ft at 5 seconds and E 1 ft at 10 seconds. Showers likely, mainly in the evening. Mon - SW winds around 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft. A chance of showers. Mon night through Tue night - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.

ANZ200 105 Am Edt Fri May 3 2024
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters - Low pres moves south from the south coastal waters tonight. High pres over the maritimes will build south into new england Fri and Sat, then head to nova scotia Sun. A weak front will move into the region Mon. A warm front approaches from the sw on Tue.

FXUS61 KBOX 030627 AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 227 AM EDT Fri May 3 2024

SYNOPSIS
A weak low pressure will bring scattered showers near the coast this afternoon. Northeast onshore flow will bring cloudy and cool conditions tomorrow. High pressure supplies dry weather with cooler onshore breezes on Saturday. Increasing clouds later Saturday into Sunday, with solid chances for rains and cooler temperatures on Sunday into Sunday evening. High pressure then brings dry and seasonable weather early next week, with our next chance for rains after Sunday not appearing until Wednesday.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/
733 PM Update:

Though it is dry into central and western MA and much of northern CT and adjacent RI. However it's a different story in eastern MA as a combo of diurnal heating and dynamic ascent/midlevel diffluence owing to a potent shortwave disturbance digging southeast from central NH is responsible for a cluster of scattered low-topped convective showers, and a few have deepened enough to produce lightning and some pea/BB-sized hailstones. We're approaching sundown now, and that should start to diminish the potency of these heavier showers/embedded t-storms, but we still expect scattered showers to continue to progress southeast towards south coastal MA and the Cape and Islands through 9 PM, following HRRR guidance. Adjusted PoP/wx to change weather to areal coverage wording.

Thereafter the story turns to returning stratus and fog, with northeast flow drawing the ongoing area of stratus over NH/ME SSW across much of SNE through the late evening and overnight hours. BUFKIT soundings shows the stratus layer lingering into the Friday morning hrs.

Previous discussion:

Shortwave trough aloft continues to dig south into SNE this afternoon. With clouds clearing across much of northeast MA, this could set the stage for an isolated pop up shower with a low chance at a rumble of thunder. SPC mesoanalysis is showing around 100 J/kg of CAPE/instability in northeast MA this afternoon. Showers quickly move south with the passage of a back door cold front.
This back door cold front will switch our winds to the NE bringing cool air and a low level marine stratus cloud deck over the region tonight. This cloud deck will keep lows mild again overnight only dropping into the upper 40s.

SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/
Rising heights and high pressure building in will attempt to erode the marine status deck tomorrow from west to east, but will likely linger well into the afternoon for the Cape and Islands.
Best chance for sun tomorrow will again be in the CT River Valley which is where high temps could top 70F. Elsewhere, cool onshore easterly flow will keep highs in the upper 50s to low 60s.

Upper level ridge axis passes over SNE Friday night with high pressure directly overhead. Winds become light and variable and skies should begin to clear as onshore flow weakens. This could allow for overnight temps to drop into the low 40s, with an outside shot at upper 30s.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
Highlights:

* Increased clouds but dry Saturday, but cooler with better chances for rains Sun into Sun night.

* Mainly dry Mon and Tue with seasonable to slightly above normal temps.

* Warm front around Tue night or Wed brings next chance for clouds and showers.

Details:

Saturday and Sunday:

Sfc ridge of high pressure over coastal New England to very slowly weaken/shift eastward through the course of the weekend. Meanwhile on the western periphery of upper level ridging over western New England and the northern mid-Atlc and associated with pretty disorganized shortwave trof energy, warm advection driven showers will gradually shift eastward into Southern New England, mainly during the latter half of the weekend (Sunday).

Still looks like Saturday is the better day of the two, although will have cooler breezes near the coast and increased cloud cover in all areas. Highs should reach the 60s for most interior locales, but around the mid 50s along the eastern MA coast, with upper 50s/around 60 near the southern coastline.

Sunday on the other hand looks cloudy with periods of rain showers, which slowly shift offshore during the evening and overnight. There are some indications that the frontal boundary responsible for the rains slows/stalls offshore that could keep chances for showers going well into Sunday night but this isn't set in stone. Though expected rain amts aren't substantial, should be a pretty soggy day.
Despite the warmer air aloft, cooler highs in the 50s given the cloud cover, rains and limited mixing. Milder-than-climo on the lows with the continued cloudiness in the mid to upper 40s.

Monday and Tuesday:

For Monday...could still see some leftover light showers into the morning across southeast MA and the Cape and Islands as frontal boundary in vicinity slowly sags southward. ECMWF in particular is slowest to progress the front offshore. Ridging to the north and west eventually builds into Southern New England later in the day and especially into Monday evening. Highs in the 60s to lower 70s and lows in the mid 40s to lower 50s.

For Tuesday...high pressure brings a period of cooler onshore flow to coastal New England, with temperatures being significantly milder inland away from the maritime influence. Kept highs in the 60s near the coast with highs inland into the lower to mid 70s, with potential spot 80 degree readings not out of the question in the warmer spots in the CT Valley. Increasing clouds for Tue night ahead of a warm front but associated rains should hold off until Wed.

Wednesday:

Warm front associated with a rather strong area of low pressure over the northern Plains drapes itself over or just west of SNE. This offers the next best chance for rains after Sunday with PoPs in the medium (30-40%) range for rains on Wednesday.

AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
Forecast Confidence Levels:

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

06Z TAF Update:

Through 12Z...High Confidence

MVFR/IFR cigs persist through 12Z with breezy north/northeasterly winds. Some gusts to 20 knots possible at The Cape/Islands terminals.

Today...High confidence in trends, moderate in timing for improvements.

MVFR/IFR cigs eventually lift/scatter out to VFR by late morning early afternoon (16-18Z). Steady northeast winds for the first half of the day will become more easterly after 18Z.

Tonight...High confidence

VFR. Light and variable winds.

Tomorrow...High confidence

VFR. East winds from 5 to 10 knots.

KBOS TAF...High confidence

KBDL TAF...High confidence

Outlook /Saturday Night through Tuesday/...

Saturday: VFR. Chance SHRA.

Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA.

Sunday: Mainly VFR, with areas IFR possible. Breezy. Chance SHRA.

Sunday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Breezy. Chance SHRA.

Monday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.

Monday Night through Tuesday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.

MARINE
Forecaster Confidence Levels:

Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Tonight: Moderate Confidence

Weak low pressure system will cause scatted rain showers with isolated thunder this afternoon and evening mainly across the eastern waters. Cool NE flow will cause a low status/fog cloud deck to form this evening. Winds will approach 20-25 knots esspically across the southern waters between 06-12z tonight, but confidence was not high enough to issue a small craft advisory at this time.

Tomorrow: Moderate Confidence

Low status and fog stick around into the afternoon before possibly clearing in the evening. Winds become light and variable tomorrow

Tomorrow night: High Confidence

High pressure overhead will keep conditions dry with light and variable winds

Outlook /Saturday Night through Tuesday/...

Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. Slight chance of rain showers.

Saturday Night through Sunday: Winds less than 25 kt. Chance of rain showers.

Sunday Night through Monday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain showers.

Monday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers.

Tuesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Slight chance of rain showers.

BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...None.

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