Thursday, September21, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Weekapaug, RI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:33AMSunset 6:46PM Thursday September 21, 2017 5:13 PM EDT (21:13 UTC) Moonrise 7:50AMMoonset 7:51PM Illumination 1% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 1 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ237 Block Island Sound- 452 Pm Edt Thu Sep 21 2017
.tropical storm warning in effect...
Tonight..Tropical storm conditions possible. N winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 40 kt. Seas around 7 ft. A slight chance of rain this evening, then a chance of showers after midnight.
Fri..Tropical storm conditions possible. N winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt. Seas 7 to 8 ft. A chance of showers in the afternoon.
Fri night..N winds 20 to 25 kt, diminishing to 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 7 ft. Areas of fog. A chance of showers in the evening.
Sat..N winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft. Areas of fog in the morning.
Sat night..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 4 ft.
Sun..NE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming E in the afternoon. Seas around 5 ft.
Sun night..NE winds around 5 kt. Seas around 5 ft. Patchy fog after midnight with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Mon..NE winds around 5 kt. Seas 5 to 6 ft. Patchy fog in the morning with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Mon night..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 6 to 7 ft. Patchy fog after midnight.
Tue..NE winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas around 7 ft. Patchy fog. A chance of showers in the afternoon. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tue night..NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 7 ft. Patchy fog. A chance of showers. Vsby 1 to 3 nm. Seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.
ANZ200 452 Pm Edt Thu Sep 21 2017
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters.. Tropical storm jose has stalled well southeast of nantucket and will slowly drift toward the southwest and weaken over the next few days. This will maintain strong winds along with large waves and a chaotic sea. Scattered rain bands will persist, especially across the southern half of the waters. A ridge of high pressure may build over the waters for Sunday and Monday. Hurricane maria may approach the southern waters mid week next week therefore mariners should Monitor the latest forecasts from the national hurricane center at www.nhc.noaa.gov. For information on possible hazardous weather beyond the 24-36 hour forecast period, please visit www.weather.gov/boston and follow the current hazards link above the map on the left.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Weekapaug, RI
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location: 41.33, -71.76     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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Fxus61 kbox 212045
afdbox
area forecast discussion
national weather service taunton ma
445 pm edt Thu sep 21 2017

Synopsis
Jose will slowly weaken and drift very slowly toward the
southwest the next few days. It will remain well southeast and
south of nantucket. This will cause strong gusty winds,
occasional rain and rough seas through Friday for CAPE cod, the
islands,and adjacent ocean waters. High pressure builds in from
the great lakes with dry weather over the weekend, before a
front brings a few showers early next week.

Near term until 6 am Friday morning
Strongest winds are expected through early evening, and then
they should very gradually diminish a little over night.

Tropical storm warnings remain in effect for the cape,
nantucket, martha's vineyard, and block island and will probably
need to do so through tonight. As anticipated, deeper mixing has
helped bring some of those stronger gusts to the surface across
southeast massachusetts, especially where there was thining of
low clouds.

Satellite imagery suggests a slow wsw drift of jose's center.

Radar was indicating at 415 pm moderate to heave rain bands
moving onto the outer CAPE and islands. These bands will
probably rotate as far west as the CAPE cod canal and possibly
brush southern plymouth and southern bristol county this
evening.

Short term 6 am Friday morning through Friday night
Jose will continue to weaken but not really move out of the
area. Thus, we anticipate a continued fairly strong N to nne
flow but not as strong as today given weakening in jose's
overall circulation and significantly poorer vertical mixing
through the boundary layer. Nonetheless, we anticipate 35 to 45
mph gusts to persist well into Friday over nantucket and 30 to
40 mph gusts over CAPE cod, martha's vineyard, and block island.

Model vertical moisture profiles depict an increase in low level
moisture below 10 thousand feet late tonight through much of
Friday. Along with the moisture and onshore flow component, we
anticipate periods of rain or drizzle across much of eastern ma
into at least southern ri including the providence area on
Friday. The clouds and precipitation will also keep temperatures
in the 60s on Friday. It should remain drier further west and
temperatures should make it into the mid 70s across the ct river
valley on Friday.

We anticipate a slow drier trend Friday night and a slow
diminishing of surface winds as jose continues to decay. There
will be enough cloudiness to inhibit radiational cooling and
temperatures will likely only fall to the mid 50s to around 60
across most of the region.

Long term Saturday through Thursday
Highlights...

* dry over weekend, some showers possible early next week
* monitor forecasts as maria heads through caribbean
jose, nearly stationary will begin its slow dissipation
process, especially after it transitions to extra-tropical given
a lack of synoptic support in the form of any shortwave energy.

Wedged between subtropical bermuda high and a very broad ridge
across most of the E conus, there is little to steer it away as
it weakens. This will help to maintain at least some gusty winds
into the weekend, along with high surf and a risk for rip
currents. The broad ridging, following the exit end of jose
defines the weather well into next week, yielding a blocking sfc
high pres and the approach of a shearing wave to impact maria's
track late week.

Sat through mon...

jose loosens its grip on new england as it both dissipates and
shifts slightly further offshore. Weakening pres gradient
suggests a few gusty winds on sat, but not nearly as strong as
today or fri. Improving conditions expected throughout S new
england, with a gradual warming trend as well within the
amplifying ridge. H85 temps warm through to about +19c by mon.

Therefore, highs especially will likely be well above seasonal
normals, in the low 80s Sat except SE ma where cloud cover
could limit might. Mid-upper 80s on Sun and Mon except where
onshore flow develops on mon. Dwpts suggests mins drop to the
low-mid 60s each night. The warm temps could lead to increased
attraction to area beaches for late september, but high surf and
rip currents will remain a risk through the weekend as the
swells from jose will be slow to subside.

Tue and wed...

early indications suggest a backdoor cold front could shift
across the region allowing cooler e-ne flow across the region.

Where ssts remain in the low-mid 60s in the gulf of maine, this
would bring ambient temperatures closer to seasonal normals
after the weekend warm spell. Higher risk for clouds as
shortwave energy approaches from the w.

Late week...

most eyes on maria. Current indications that after a slow
northward progression about 200-300 miles off the E seaboard,
that as the shearing wave to the w, combined with blocking high
pres will begin to push it out to sea. However, it is still too
early to completely rule out any possibility with its track, so
stay tuned as the players come in line. In any case, the N track
and great circle trajectory indicate another round of increasing
swells with some marine surf impacts possible.

Aviation 20z Thursday through Tuesday
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Friday night ...

tonight and Friday...

anticipate MVFR ceilings to spread NW after midnight across
eastern ma and southern ri and remain low MVFR or ifr across
cape cod and nantucket. Relatively strong and gusty nne winds
will linger but gradually diminish during Friday. Gusts of 40
to 50 knots still possible nantucket this evening and then 30 to
40 knots overnight. Gusts 35 to 40 knots over CAPE cod and
martha's vineyard this evening and then gradually diminishing to
30 to 35 knots overnight.

Kbos taf... Nne winds should begin to slowlydiminish after 00z.

Anticipate with moderate confidence MVFR CIGS moving back to
bos after 06z.

Kbdl taf... High confidence.

Outlook Saturday through Tuesday ...

high confidence.

Sat...

lingering MVFR CIGS across SE ma should dissipate through the
day giving way toVFR everywhere. N winds may gust 20-30 kt at
times.

Sun and mon...

vfr. Light winds.

Tue...

some MVFR possible in lower clouds, otherwiseVFR.

Marine
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Friday night ...

seas will remain rough through Friday night but very gradually
begin to subside late tonight through Friday night but still
probably an issue for small craft well into if not through the
weekend.

Bands of showers, drizzle, and fog will also linger through
Friday creating poor vsbys.

Outlook Saturday through Tuesday ...

moderate confidence.

Mon...

gusty N winds continue through early Sat with gusts to gales
lowering to sub small craft levels through the day. Seas too
will be subsiding with time, but remain elevated due to
lingering swells. Small craft advisories are likely to continue.

Sun through tue...

e coastal waters may drop below the 5 ft threshold, however
lingering swells from jose, combined with increasing swells from
maria may lead to high seas above the 5 ft threshold especially
on the S waters and SE waters well into early next week.

Tides coastal flooding
High surf will continue into at least Saturday along the east
side of CAPE cod and nantucket with lingering beach erosion.

Some beach erosion may also persist along south facing ocean
exposures.

Surge is still rising some at both nantucket and boston, and
anticipate another round of minor coastal flooding across
southeast ma vulnerable locations for the early morning Friday
high tide. There is still a possibility that nantucket may
experience a high end minor or minor to moderate coastal flood
event early Friday morning due to the wind fetch toward the
harbor and a surge that may peak out near or just shy of 2 feet.

Total water level may top out a few tenths either side of 5.5
feet mllw.

High surf advisory remains posted outside of the tropical storm
warning area through Friday night. The advisory covers threats
from both high surf and dangerous rip currents. We may end up
having to extend the high surf advisory into at least part of
the weekend for some of the ocean exposed coastline.

Swells from maria may re-increase the surf and associated rip
current risk across our ocean exposed south coast sometime
during the first half of next week even though maria may
eventually recurve out to sea before getting too close to new
england.

Box watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ma... Tropical storm warning for maz022>024.

High surf advisory until 6 am edt Saturday for maz007-019-020.

Coastal flood advisory until 4 am edt Friday for maz019.

Wind advisory until 6 am edt Friday for maz007-015-016-018>021.

Ri... Tropical storm warning for riz008.

High surf advisory until 6 am edt Saturday for riz006-007.

Wind advisory until 6 am edt Friday for riz005>007.

Marine... Tropical storm warning for anz231>235-237-250-254>256.

Small craft advisory until 4 pm edt Friday for anz230-236-251.

Synopsis... Doody thompson
near term... Thompson
short term... Thompson
long term... Doody
aviation... Doody thompson
marine... Doody thompson
tides coastal flooding... Thompson


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NLNC3 - 8461490 - New London, CT 18 mi44 min NNE 4.1 G 12 71°F 68°F1013.8 hPa
MTKN6 - 8510560 - Montauk, NY 22 mi44 min 69°F 68°F1013.1 hPa
NWPR1 - 8452660 - Newport, RI 26 mi44 min NNE 17 G 24 70°F 66°F1013.3 hPa
QPTR1 - 8454049 - Quonset Point, RI 26 mi44 min NNE 31 G 39 71°F 70°F1013.5 hPa
PTCR1 - 8452951 - Potter Cove, Prudence Island, RI 31 mi44 min NE 23 G 32 70°F 1013.9 hPa
PRUR1 31 mi44 min 70°F 55°F
NAXR1 - Narragansett Bay Reserve, RI 31 mi89 min NE 28 70°F 52°F
CPTR1 - 8452944 - Conimicut Light, RI 35 mi44 min NNE 21 G 33 69°F 69°F1013.7 hPa
PVDR1 37 mi44 min NNE 18 G 30 72°F 1014.4 hPa50°F
FOXR1 - 8454000 - Providence, RI 38 mi44 min ENE 20 G 26 72°F 68°F1014.3 hPa
BUZM3 - Buzzards Bay, MA 39 mi74 min N 36 G 42 67°F 1011.1 hPa (+0.0)
FRXM3 40 mi44 min 70°F 55°F
BLTM3 - 8447387 - Borden Flats Light at Fall River, MA 40 mi44 min NNE 21 G 28 70°F 1012.9 hPa
FRVM3 - 8447386 - Fall River, MA 41 mi44 min 70°F 70°F1014.7 hPa
44017 - 23 Nautical Miles Southwest of Montauk Point, NY 47 mi84 min 69°F 65°F6 ft1012.4 hPa (-0.7)60°F
44039 - Central Long Island Sound 49 mi44 min N 14 G 18 73°F 2 ft68°F

Wind History for New London, CT
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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N8
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Westerly, Westerly State Airport, RI3 mi81 minN 14 G 2410.00 miFair71°F52°F51%1013.8 hPa
Block Island State Airport, RI14 mi78 minNNE 22 G 3110.00 miFair and Breezy69°F53°F57%1012.9 hPa
Groton / New London, Groton / New London Airport, CT15 mi78 minNNE 16 G 2210.00 miFair71°F55°F57%1013.7 hPa
Montauk, Montauk Airport, NY19 mi80 minN 13 G 25 mi71°F55°F59%1013.6 hPa

Wind History from WST (wind in knots)
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1 day agoN11
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2 days agoNE4NE5NE4NE5NE6NE5NE6NE8NE7NE76NE9NE9
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G16
N12
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G19
N13
G24
N12
G17
NE11
G21

Tide / Current Tables for Weekapaug Point, Block Island Sound, Rhode Island
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Weekapaug Point
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Thu -- 03:31 AM EDT     -0.10 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:33 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:50 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 09:53 AM EDT     3.39 feet High Tide
Thu -- 03:52 PM EDT     -0.10 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:45 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 07:50 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 10:14 PM EDT     3.06 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.80.90.2-0.1-0.10.20.71.42.33.13.43.12.31.30.50-0.10.10.411.92.632.9

Tide / Current Tables for The Race, Long Island Sound, New York Current
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The Race
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:37 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 03:35 AM EDT     -3.63 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 06:34 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 06:49 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 07:51 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 09:41 AM EDT     3.30 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 12:58 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 03:57 PM EDT     -3.65 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 06:46 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 07:14 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 07:51 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 10:03 PM EDT     3.16 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.1-0.7-2.4-3.5-3.6-2.8-1.40.323.13.32.71.6-0.1-1.8-3.2-3.7-3.2-2-0.41.32.73.22.8

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
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GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Boston, MA (17,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Boston, MA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.