Saturday, September23, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Stonington, CT

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:35AMSunset 6:43PM Saturday September 23, 2017 7:09 AM EDT (11:09 UTC) Moonrise 9:53AMMoonset 8:53PM Illumination 8% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ237 Block Island Sound- 354 Am Edt Sat Sep 23 2017
.small craft advisory in effect through this evening...
Today..N winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming ne 10 to 15 kt this afternoon. Gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Areas of fog this morning. A slight chance of showers this morning with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tonight..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Areas of fog.
Sun..NE winds around 5 kt, becoming se in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Areas of fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sun night..SE winds around 5 kt, becoming ne after midnight. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Mon..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
Mon night..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
Tue..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft.
Tue night..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft. A chance of showers.
Wed..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft. A chance of showers.
Wed night..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 6 to 8 ft. A chance of showers. Seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.
ANZ200 354 Am Edt Sat Sep 23 2017
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters.. The remnants of jose centered about 150 miles south-southeast of nantucket will continue to weaken and slowly drift southeast today. This will keep some fog and showers over the waters this morning. High pressure will build over the waters tonight and Sunday and remain in control through midweek. Hurricane maria will slowly lift north and be located off the north carolina coast by the middle of next week. It will generate southerly swell particularly across our southern outer waters during the first half of next week. Mariners should Monitor the latest forecasts from the national hurricane center at www.nhc.noaa.gov. For information on possible hazardous weather beyond the 24-36 hour forecast period, please visit www.weather.gov/boston and follow the current hazards link above the map on the left.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Stonington , CT
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location: 41.33, -71.89     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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Fxus61 kbox 230749
afdbox
area forecast discussion
national weather service taunton ma
349 am edt Sat sep 23 2017

Synopsis
Jose southeast of nantucket will slowly drift back to the southwest
the next few days. This will maintain strong winds, rain and rough
seas today, which then diminish as the storm weakens this weekend.

Clearing skies will move in from the west tonight and Sunday.

High pressure will bring unseasonable warm weather for early to
mid next week. Maria is expected to pass southeast of new
england late in the week with strongest winds well offshore.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
The remnants of jose continue to drift southeast away from southern
new england. Overnight satellite imagery shows clouds across much
of the region, but also some clearing over the berkshires.

Outside of southern new england, the big story is longwave high
pressure with heights well about september normals. The surface
reflection of this high is bringing fair dry weather from northern
new england to the great lakes and much of the south. We expect this
high to build over southern new england this weekend, bringing a
trend to above normal temperatures.

For today this means a clearing trend from west to east, except
along CAPE cod and the south coast where low clouds from jose may
hang tough through the day. Winds from the north-northeast will
diminish with lingering 20-25 knot gusts across the CAPE and
islands, and 15-20 knots farther north and west. Lingering clouds
and a north-northeast wind will slow down heating in eastern mass,
while the ct river valley should mix to between 900 and 850 mb. For
the east, this means a mixing equivalent of 8-10c, supporting max
temps in the 70s. In western areas the mixing equivalent depends on
the depth... About 15-16c if mixing to 900 mb and 16-17c if reaching
850 mb. So temps there should reach at least the mid 80s and have
the potential of approaching 90.

Note that upstream the MAX temps yesterday reached the mid 90s in
michigan. Also note that record MAX temps for our area today are 90
to 96, so while a 90 in worcester would tie a record, it would fall
short at the other sites.

Surf... Southeast swell of 4-5 feet lingers along the south and east
facing exposed coastlines today. High surf and dangerous rip
currents will be a concern. Swell is expected to diminish during the
afternoon.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 pm Sunday
Tonight...

winds diminish tonight, which with clear skies will allow
temperatures to cool to dew point. We trended toward the MOS values
for min temp, which was a couple of degrees lower than the standard
guidance. Radiation fog possible in the interior, and marine
fog stratus is possible along the CAPE islands south coast.

Sunday...

high pressure over the region Sunday. Heights at 500 mb are forecast
at or above 590 dm, and 850 temps are forecast at 18-19c... The nam
shows 20c. Average september values per esrl are 578 dm for 500 mb
heights and 10c for 850 mb temperature. So Sunday will trend toward
very warm daytime temperatures. Moisture profiles show limited
moisture around 850 mb and dry air below and above, so we expect a
sunny day. Full mixing to 850 mb would support high temps around 90
or the low 90s, while mixing that falls just short would reach the
mid to upper 80s. Light winds under the high pressure will allow
daytime sea breezes, which will keep temps cooler along the
shoreline.

We will go with upper 80s and around 90. This would be either near
or at record levels. Records are included in the climate section
near the end of this discussion.

Long term Sunday night through Friday
Highlights...

* summer warmth expected to the middle of next week
* maria expected to sharply recurve out to sea southeast of new
england late next week
h85 temperatures 17c to 19c and impressive upper level ridge with
h50 heights over 5850m support high temperatures well into the 80s
across much of the region Monday and Tuesday and possibly for some
of the region into Wednesday. A few interior spots may reach 90
degrees Monday, and perhaps even again Tuesday if the ECMWF 00z. Run
verifies. Sea breezes may temper MAX temperatures a little along the
coastal plain including boston. Expansive outflow cloud shield from
maria and slowly lowering mid level heights may lower temperatures a
few degrees on Wednesday but still above normal.

Model guidance brings a risk of showers to southern new england late
Wednesday. This is likely in response to a weakening cold front
ahead of an approaching broad upper trough with a band of k indices
above 30 with the 00z operational GFS and ecmwf. This may provide
enough of a trigger for at least scattered showers. Will keep pops
around 30 percent but any showers that do develop could have
efficient rainfall given warm rain processes at work and
precipitable water values near 2 inches.

The latter part of the week features an amplifying upper level
trough over the great lakes which would appear to provide the
impetus for maria to make a sharp right turn and pass southeast of
new england. Model consensus keeps the track of maria southeast of
the benchmark and MAX winds on the east side. There may be some
moisture entrainment into the approaching upper level trough so
maria could contribute to some rain if this is not counteracted by a
band of subsidence outside of maria's circulation field. There is
some uncertainty as to how this may play out and so for now will
indicate chance pops Thursday through Friday morning. Other impacts
associated with maria will likely be high surf and dangerous rip
currents, mainly along ocean exposed south coast beaches. For
several days, maria tracks near a great circle route in our
direction and hence will likely see significant long period swells
from the S or SE propagate into our coastal waters most of next week
with the subsequent result being high surf and rip currents. The
slow speed of maria for the next several days may enhance the swell
activity during this period.

Aviation 08z Saturday through Wednesday
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Sunday ...

today... Moderate confidence.

Lingering MVFR ceilings in western and central sections while
eastern mass and ri show ifr CIGS and MVFR ifr vsbys in fog and a
few early morning showers. Drier air is moving in, so we expect
clearing skies andVFR conditions arriving from west to east during
the day. Low clouds may linger on CAPE cod and the islands. North
winds will diminish through the day, although some 20 knot gusts may
linger this morning along the CAPE islands south coast.

Tonight... Moderate confidence.

Diminishing wind.VFR to start in most spots. Southeast mass and ri
will trend to ifr lifr in fog and low clouds. Areas of fog will also
develop across the interior with ifr lifr conditions.

Sunday... High confidence.

Fog burns off during the morning. Most of the day will beVFR with
light winds. Sea breezes expected along the coastlines, including
bos.

Kbos taf... Moderate confidence. Ifr CIGS and potential 4sm vsbys in
low clouds and drizzle fog early. Conditions should improve toVFR
late this morning with clearing during mid to late afternoon. North
to northeast winds will diminish through the day.

Kbdl taf... High confidence in taf. Borderline MVFRVFR CIGS will
improve as clearing skies over the berkshires sweep east this
morning. Areas of fog may develop 06z-12z tonight, although the
chance of this is stronger over valley locations north of
springfield.

Outlook Sunday night through Wednesday ... Confidence... High.

Sunday night through Tuesday...VFR expected.

Tuesday night... MostlyVFR except MVFR in patchy stratus fog some
interior valleys and near the south coast.

Wednesday... GenerallyVFR except MVFR ceilings visibilities possible
in scattered late day showers and patchy late night early morning
stratus fog.

Marine
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Today... With the remnants of jose well south of the waters and
moving slowly southeast, we expect conditions will improve over the
waters this weekend. Gusty north winds will diminish through the
day, with lingering 25-knot gusts this morning mainly on the
southern waters. Seas at 5 feet or higher on all exposed waters this
morning. These will subside, but with 5-6 foot heights lingering on
the outer waters through this evening. Fog and drizzle this morning
with some poor vsbys, but this will diminish through the day.

A leftover 3 to 5 foot southeast swell will maintain high surf and
rip tide hazards at the coastline, diminishing late in the day.

Tonight...

fog lingers along the southern and southeast coasts in the evening,
then moves to the coastline during the night. Expect periods of poor
vsbys, especially on the waters south and east of CAPE cod. Winds
will diminish to less than 15 knots, but seas will linger at 5-6
feet on the southern outer waters.

Sunday...

high pressure building over the region will bring light wind Sunday,
with sea breezes developing at the shoreline. Poor vsbys in fog
early, but these will improve during the morning. Seas of 5-6 feet
will linger oin the southern outer waters, and may work north into
ri sound during the afternoon.

A south swell sent north from maria will start showing itself in our
southern waters Sunday, with 3-4 feet swell heights in the
afternoon.

Outlook Sunday night through Wednesday ... Confidence... High
relatively light winds are expected through the period. However,
swells from maria will likely propagate into the southern coastal
water, beginning late Sunday night or Monday. Small craft advisories
may become necessary due to rough seas for the waters south of the
ma and ri coast for the period Monday through Wednesday.

The swells from maria will likely produce another round of high surf
and dangerous rip currents.

Tides coastal flooding
Lingering high surf and additional beach erosion will still be
a concern today given high seas just offshore. These values are
diminishing.

Swells from maria may increase the surf and associated rip current
risk across our ocean-exposed south coast starting late Sunday
and continuing through the week. This will be true even though
maria may eventually recurve out to sea before getting too close
to new england.

Climate
Record high MAX temperatures for today, Sunday, and Monday.

Bos 96 1895 90 1959 89 1926
orh 90 1941 85 2010 85 1970
bdl 93 1941 89 1959 90 2007
pvd 92 1970 87 1959 89 1920
extreme high values for dew points for each calendar day are
still in the low 70s, except for a couple of 68 and 69 values
at worcester. These are unlikely to be realized.

Box watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ma... High surf advisory until 6 pm edt this evening for maz007-019-
020-022>024.

Ri... High surf advisory until 6 pm edt this evening for riz006>008.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 5 pm edt this afternoon for
anz232>234.

Small craft advisory until 4 pm edt this afternoon for anz231-
251.

Small craft advisory until 10 am edt this morning for anz236.

Small craft advisory until 11 pm edt this evening for anz235-
237-250.

Small craft advisory until 6 pm edt Sunday for anz254>256.

Synopsis... Wtb rmt
near term... Wtb
short term... Wtb
long term... Rmt
aviation... Wtb rmt
marine... Wtb rmt
tides coastal flooding...

climate...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NLNC3 - 8461490 - New London, CT 11 mi52 min N 6 G 18 66°F 66°F1013.8 hPa
MTKN6 - 8510560 - Montauk, NY 20 mi52 min 66°F 67°F1013.3 hPa
QPTR1 - 8454049 - Quonset Point, RI 31 mi58 min N 15 G 24 64°F 66°F1014.4 hPa
NWPR1 - 8452660 - Newport, RI 32 mi52 min N 13 G 20 63°F 63°F1014 hPa
PTCR1 - 8452951 - Potter Cove, Prudence Island, RI 36 mi52 min NE 13 G 21 63°F 1014.6 hPa
NAXR1 - Narragansett Bay Reserve, RI 36 mi85 min NNE 18 63°F 62°F
PRUR1 36 mi52 min 63°F 62°F
CPTR1 - 8452944 - Conimicut Light, RI 39 mi58 min N 19 G 21 63°F 66°F1014.5 hPa
PVDR1 41 mi52 min N 8.9 G 14 62°F 1014.9 hPa61°F
FOXR1 - 8454000 - Providence, RI 42 mi52 min NE 8.9 G 14 62°F 67°F1014.9 hPa
44039 - Central Long Island Sound 43 mi77 min N 16 G 21 69°F 2 ft69°F
FRXM3 45 mi52 min 62°F 61°F
44017 - 23 Nautical Miles Southwest of Montauk Point, NY 45 mi80 min 65°F 64°F6 ft1012.7 hPa (+0.5)63°F
BLTM3 - 8447387 - Borden Flats Light at Fall River, MA 46 mi52 min NNE 17 G 24 62°F 1013.7 hPa
FRVM3 - 8447386 - Fall River, MA 46 mi52 min 62°F 67°F1015.3 hPa
BUZM3 - Buzzards Bay, MA 46 mi70 min N 23 G 26 62°F 1013.1 hPa (+1.2)

Wind History for New London, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Westerly, Westerly State Airport, RI5 mi77 minN 1410.00 miMostly Cloudy65°F59°F81%1013.9 hPa
Groton / New London, Groton / New London Airport, CT8 mi74 minN 15 G 2210.00 miA Few Clouds65°F57°F76%1013.7 hPa
Montauk, Montauk Airport, NY17 mi76 minNNE 11 G 21 mi66°F62°F87%1013.7 hPa
Block Island State Airport, RI19 mi74 minNNE 14 G 2310.00 miOvercast63°F61°F93%1013.9 hPa

Wind History from WST (wind in knots)
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1 day agoN13
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2 days agoN14
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N12
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G23
N9
G18
N12
G23
N14
G22
N14
G22

Tide / Current Tables for Stonington, Fishers Island Sound, Connecticut
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Stonington
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Sat -- 05:34 AM EDT     0.35 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:36 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 09:52 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 11:40 AM EDT     3.33 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:10 PM EDT     0.30 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:42 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 08:53 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
2.92.521.40.90.40.40.81.62.32.93.33.332.41.81.20.60.30.511.72.22.6

Tide / Current Tables for The Race, Long Island Sound, New York Current
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The Race
Click for Map
Sat -- 02:01 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 04:58 AM EDT     -3.17 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 06:36 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:09 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 09:53 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 10:59 AM EDT     2.92 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 02:17 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 05:21 PM EDT     -3.25 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 06:43 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 08:38 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 08:54 PM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 11:23 PM EDT     2.69 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
2.41.40-1.5-2.7-3.2-2.7-1.6-0.21.32.52.92.61.70.4-1.1-2.4-3.2-3.1-2.2-0.90.51.92.6

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
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GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Boston, MA (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Boston, MA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.