Sunday, May26, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Stonington, CT

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 5:17AMSunset 8:10PM Sunday May 26, 2019 3:05 AM EDT (07:05 UTC) Moonrise 1:40AMMoonset 12:16PM Illumination 52% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 22 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ237 Block Island Sound- 116 Am Edt Sun May 26 2019
.small craft advisory in effect until noon edt today...
Rest of tonight..S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Showers likely.
Sun..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt in the morning. Seas 2 to 4 ft. A chance of showers. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sun night..W winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming nw 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Mon..N winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming se in the afternoon. Seas around 2 ft.
Mon night..S winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming ne after midnight. Seas around 2 ft.
Tue..E winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming se 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas around 2 ft. Showers likely.
Tue night..SE winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming S 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Showers likely.
Wed..S winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. A chance of showers.
Wed night..S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. A chance of showers.
Thu..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. A chance of showers.
Thu night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. A chance of showers. Seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.
ANZ200 116 Am Edt Sun May 26 2019
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters.. A weak warm front moves into the waters late tonight followed by a cold front Sun evening. High pres builds across on Mon, with another system approaching Tue. For information on possible hazardous weather beyond the 24-36 hour forecast period, please visit www.weather.gov/boston and follow the current hazards link above the map on the left.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Stonington , CT
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location: 41.33, -71.89     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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Fxus61 kbox 260600
afdbox
area forecast discussion
national weather service boston norton ma
200 am edt Sun may 26 2019

Synopsis
High pressure moves offshore, allowing a warm front to slip
through southern new england. This will bring mild night to our
area, along with a few showers and chance of a thunderstorm.

Southern new england gets a taste of summertime heat on Sunday
along with isolated thunderstorms. A cold front moves through
and brings moderating temperatures, but still pleasantly warm
air. High pressure pushes off the coast early Tuesday. Low
pressure then moves through Tuesday bringing cooler temps and
rain, followed by periodic unsettled weather through Thursday
night. A cold front pushes offshore late next week, with drying
conditions and mild temperatures.

Near term until 6 am this morning
2 am update...

showers and scattered t-storms will be exiting eastern ma coast
during the next hour, then just a few showers and perhaps an
isold t-storm left to move through sne during the overnight.

Previous discussion...

isolated showers moving into western ma while weakening line of
convection moves east from central ny. This area will
overspread sne overnight as the low level jet brings a burst of
moisture advection and decreasing stability aloft. Isolated
t-storms possible as soundings indicate a saturated column and
conditional instability above the inversion leading to mucapes
200-400 j kg. It will be a mild night with lows ranging from mid
50s to near 60. Increasing SW winds overnight as the low level
jet moves overhead. Inversion will prevent strongest winds from
mixing down but should see a period of gusts to 25 mph.

Short term 6 am this morning through 6 pm Monday
Sunday...

showers exit during the morning as the warm front moves off to
the north east. Southern new england will be in the warm sector,
with dew points in the upper 50s and lower 60s. Mixing is
expected to reach 800 mb, with temps at that level supporting
max sfc temps in the low to mid 80s. Winds in the mixed layer
have a potential for 25-30 kt.

Stability parameters linger at near unstable levels but drier
air moves in at all levels above 750 mb. The dryness suggests it
will be difficult to generate convection, but the parameters
suggest it is not out of the question. We will mention slight
chance pops in eastern mass for showers tstms.

Sunday night...

west-northwest winds bring lower dew points move in behind the
cold front. Overall a dry night with temps falling back into the
50s.

Long term Monday night through Saturday
Highlights...

* dry and mild conditions for memorial day
* low pressure bring showers and cooler temps Tuesday
* a front lingers across the region Wed and Thu with unsettled
conditions and warming temperatures
* rain ending Friday with dry and seasonable conditions toward
the weekend
overview...

progressive pattern in the extended forecast, with a persistent
subtropical ridge over the central southern u.S. Directing a
series of shortwaves through sne during the workweek. This will
lead to periodic shower thunderstorm chances with a bit of a
roller coaster of high temperatures, warmer Monday and even
moreso Thursday. By next weekend we see indications of a drier
regime with high pressure in the vicinity.

Details...

memorial day...

a cooler and drier post frontal airmass will be in place for
memorial day as high pressure builds in to the north.

Temperatures top out around 10 degrees cooler than Sunday,
in the mid 70s (near 80 for ct valley), while dewpoints in
the 40s and low 50s mean less humidity. The exception will
be along the immediate coast, where high pressure and light
winds will allow for light onshore flow, keeping temps in
the 60s.

Tuesday through Thursday...

showers return early Tuesday with cooler temperatures as a
surface low pressure system approaches and crosses the region
from the west. Still some uncertainty on the track and
magnitude of this system. The ec has consistently brought
a stronger ~1004mb low directly over sne while the GFS keeps
it weaker and further south. Given the associated greater
forcing at 925 in the ec solution, it paints a far wetter
picture as well. For now, sticking with a blend of synoptic
guidance brining rain on Tuesday. Instability, though, looks
poor, so not expecting thunderstorms. Either way flow remains
onshore Tuesday keeping high temps in the upper 50s and low
60s... Mid to upper 60s inland.

Rain clears out briefly early Wednesday before the next
system approaches Wednesday night into Thursday. This one with
several hundred j kg of CAPE so we could see some thunderstorms
overnight into early Thursday. A brief break in the rain
follows, early-mid day Thursday, before the approaching cold
front brings more widespread rain and potential for
thunderstorms to all of southern new england late Thursday into
early Friday.

Wednesday and Thursday we'll see increasing temperatures each
day as a warm front slowly makes its way north on southerly
flow, placing southern new england fully in the warm sector by
Thursday. This is associated with a surface low over the great
lakes moving into southeast canada. Cloudcover will limit solar
insolation Wednesday but temps manage to get into the 60s-70s.

Thursday is our warmest day of the week, with 850mb temps
approaching 16-18c, leading to surface highs in the 80s. Some
deterministic model runs continue to predict even hotter temps
Thursday, but for now keeping things in the low to mid 80s.

Glancing at the eps, only 1-2 of the 50+ members want to bring
90+ highs to pvd or bdl Thursday (even less for bos). This of
course depends on the timing of the approaching cold front which
if it were to speed up could limit our warming.

Friday and Saturday...

the cold front passes sometime around late Thursday night early
Friday morning, bringing showers to an end as pwats drop to
<0.5" and cooler NW winds return. Under large scale troughing
but generally zonal flow, things look to dry out as we head into
the weekend under high pressure. Seasonable temperatures are
expected, in the mid to upper 70s for most with increasingly
clear skies.

Aviation 06z Sunday through Thursday
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Monday ... High confidence.

Through 12z...

vfr CIGS with areas of MVFR developing. Showers and sct
t-storms exiting eastern ma coast 06-07z, otherwise just a few
showers to move through, becoming focused near the CAPE islands
10-12z. A few SW gusts to 20-25 kt.

Today...

leftover MVFR ifr cigs CAPE islands becomingVFR 14-15z but
lower CIGS may linger at ack until 17-18z. OtherwiseVFR. Low
risk for an isold shra tsra late afternoon over ct ri and SE ma.

West wind gusts to 25-30 kt developing in the afternoon, mainly
along and north of the pike.

Tonight...VFR. Light winds.

Monday...VFR. Sea breezes developing late morning into the
afternoon.

Kbos terminal... High confidence.

Kbdl terminal... High confidence.

Outlook...

Monday night:VFR.

Tuesday:VFR. Breezy. Chance shra.

Tuesday night: mainlyVFR, with local ifr possible. Breezy.

Chance shra.

Wednesday: mainlyVFR, with local ifr possible. Breezy. Chance
shra, isolated tsra.

Wednesday night: mainlyVFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy.

Chance shra, isolated tsra.

Thursday:VFR. Breezy. Chance shra, isolated tsra.

Marine
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Monday ... High confidence.

Tonight... Increasing SW winds as a low level jet moves across
the waters. Gusts to 25 kt possible after midnight with building
seas. A small craft advisory is being issued with this forecast.

Showers move through, mostly during the overnight, with reduced
vsbys.

Sunday... Low level jet exits SE waters early with diminishing
winds. Another pulse of west gusts to 20-25 kt may develop in
the afternoon over boston harbor and narragansett bay. Also some
concern for a second round of showers t-storms along the eastern
ma coast, but important conditions for shower growth are not
showing in our data. We will forecast isolates showers thunder
along the north shore and south shore waters.

Sunday night... Diminishing northwest wind and diminishing seas
as high pressure builds from the west.

Outlook...

memorial day: winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching
5 ft.

Monday night: winds less than 25 kt.

Tuesday: winds less than 25 kt. Rain showers likely.

Tuesday night: winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching
5 ft. Rain showers likely.

Wednesday through Wednesday night: winds less than 25 kt. Areas
of seas approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain showers, isolated
thunderstorms.

Thursday: winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching
5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers, isolated thunderstorms.

Box watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ma... None.

Ri... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until noon edt today for anz231>235-237.

Small craft advisory until 8 am edt this morning for anz230.

Small craft advisory until 5 pm edt this afternoon for anz250.

Small craft advisory until 10 pm edt this evening for
anz254>256.

Synopsis... Wtb bw
near term... Kjc
short term... Wtb
long term... Bw
aviation... Kjc bw
marine... Wtb bw


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
LDLC3 - New London Ledge CT - Ledge Light Weather 10 mi41 min WSW 12 G 14 56°F 1016.8 hPa53°F
NLNC3 - 8461490 - New London, CT 11 mi36 min SW 7 G 11
MTKN6 - 8510560 - Montauk, NY 20 mi36 min 56°F 58°F1016 hPa
QPTR1 - 8454049 - Quonset Point, RI 31 mi42 min SW 15 G 22 58°F 60°F1015.8 hPa
NWPR1 - 8452660 - Newport, RI 32 mi36 min SSW 11 G 13 56°F 55°F1015.7 hPa
NAXR1 - Narragansett Bay Reserve, RI 36 mi81 min SSW 6 58°F 1017 hPa51°F
PRUR1 36 mi36 min 56°F 53°F
CPTR1 - 8452944 - Conimicut Light, RI 39 mi36 min SSW 16 G 22 57°F 59°F1016 hPa
FOXR1 - 8454000 - Providence, RI 42 mi36 min SW 8.9 G 14 59°F 58°F1015 hPa
44017 - 23 Nautical Miles Southwest of Montauk Point, NY 45 mi36 min S 18 G 19 57°F 55°F1016.2 hPa54°F
FRXM3 45 mi36 min 58°F 51°F
BLTM3 - 8447387 - Borden Flats Light at Fall River, MA 46 mi36 min SSW 14 G 17 58°F 1015.6 hPa
FRVM3 - 8447386 - Fall River, MA 46 mi36 min 58°F 60°F1016.2 hPa
44097 - Block Island, RI (154) 48 mi36 min 54°F3 ft

Wind History for New London, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Westerly, Westerly State Airport, RI5 mi73 minSSW 910.00 miLight Rain57°F55°F93%1016.3 hPa
Groton / New London, Groton / New London Airport, CT8 mi70 minSSW 1210.00 miOvercast59°F52°F78%1015.9 hPa
Montauk, Montauk Airport, NY17 mi72 minSSW 6 mi57°F53°F87%1016.8 hPa
Block Island State Airport, RI19 mi70 minSSW 1210.00 miOvercast56°F52°F87%1017 hPa

Wind History from WST (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmW3CalmCalmCalmCalm44W5SW8SW9SW10SW9S10S13S11
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1 day agoSW3W3SW4SW4W7W8
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CalmNE7NE6NE7NE5NE4NE3
2 days agoS7S7S8S7S7S6SW8SW9S10S9S9S10S12
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W53

Tide / Current Tables for Stonington, Fishers Island Sound, Connecticut
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Stonington
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Sun -- 01:39 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 03:15 AM EDT     2.61 feet High Tide
Sun -- 05:20 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 09:50 AM EDT     0.55 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 12:16 PM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 12:34 PM EDT     Last Quarter
Sun -- 04:06 PM EDT     2.56 feet High Tide
Sun -- 08:09 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 10:18 PM EDT     0.88 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.82.22.52.62.52.31.91.61.10.70.60.81.31.72.12.42.62.52.221.61.20.91

Tide / Current Tables for The Race, Long Island Sound, New York Current
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The Race
Click for Map
Sun -- 01:40 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 02:26 AM EDT     1.83 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 05:21 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 05:47 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 08:54 AM EDT     -2.33 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 12:15 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 12:17 PM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 12:34 PM EDT     Last Quarter
Sun -- 03:01 PM EDT     1.97 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 06:32 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 08:09 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 09:26 PM EDT     -2.14 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.21.21.81.81.30.7-0.2-1.2-2.1-2.3-2-1.2-0.30.81.721.81.30.5-0.5-1.5-2.1-2-1.5

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Boston, MA (3,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Boston, MA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.