Tuesday, March28, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Stonington, CT

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 6:33AMSunset 7:10PM Tuesday March 28, 2017 7:59 AM EDT (11:59 UTC) Moonrise 7:09AMMoonset 7:57PM Illumination 1% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 1 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ237 Block Island Sound- 717 Am Edt Tue Mar 28 2017
Today..E winds around 5 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Areas of fog. A chance of showers with patchy drizzle this morning. Rain with a slight chance of tstms this afternoon. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Tonight..NE winds around 5 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Patchy fog. Rain. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Wed..N winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Patchy fog.
Wed night..N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Thu..N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt...becoming nw 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Thu night..S winds around 5 kt...becoming ne after midnight. Seas 1 foot or less.
Fri..E winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 2 ft. A chance of rain.
Fri night..E winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Rain likely.
Sat..NE winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Rain likely.
Sat night..N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. A chance of rain. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms. Seas are reported as significant wave height...which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.
ANZ200 717 Am Edt Tue Mar 28 2017
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters.. A warm front will remain south of the coastal today as another low tracks across southern new england tonight. Strong high pressure over quebec builds S into new england Wednesday into Thursday. More unsettled weather is in the forecast for late Friday into Saturday followed by high pressure Sunday into early next week. For information on possible hazardous weather beyond the 24-36 hour forecast period...please visit www.weather.gov/boston and follow the current hazards link above the map on the left.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Stonington , CT
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location: 41.33, -71.89     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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Fxus61 kbox 281056
afdbox
area forecast discussion
national weather service taunton ma
656 am edt Tue mar 28 2017

Synopsis
Wet weather continues through tonight. Some improvement
expected on Wednesday. High pressure brings dry and cool weather
Wednesday night and Thursday. Low pressure from the ohio valley
passes south of new england over the weekend. This brings a mix
of precipitation Friday and Saturday, followed by dry weather
Sunday and Monday.

Near term /until 6 pm this evening/
7 am update...

low clouds/fog/drizzle in place across the region. Visibility
concerns are strongest in the ct river valley and along the
south coast. Expect conditions to improve a little during the
mid to late morning. Also note the 06z hrrr shows next precip
area entering our area between 19z SW and 22z ne... Extrapolation
of the precip in SW pa/w md is within an hour of this timing.

Current forecast brings pops to likely and then categorical on
roughly that schedule. So no changes planned.

Main adjustments are to morning vsbys based on 6 am observed
readings.

Previous discussion...

weak nly flow continues to impact the region even as the lvls
below about h7 remain fully saturated. This has led mainly to
widespread low clouds with a mix of modest fog/dz during the
early morning hours. One issue of note, which will need to be
monitored through sunrise is the risk for a few spots to dip
near or below freezing mainly along and N of the rt 2 corridor
of mass. The nly flow has allowed dwpts to continue to drop
through the overnight hours and are just now reaching freezing.

This trend may continue and may require a last minute sps for
isolated freezing spots on area roadways, which could remain wet
from yesterday's rains/damp conditions. The nly flow also
continues to keep vsbys in fog higher than dense fog advisory
thresholds.

With this forecast update, am concerned that the warm front
currently draped from ny state across and to the S of new
england may in fact struggle to fully lift N of the region
today. The trapped moisture and low clouds will limit early am
warming, weak cyclogenesis will continue across the oh valley
then offshore of nj/delmarva late today, and there is a lack of
forcing in the form of a S llj. Therefore, will keep the warmest
temps mainly W and S of the region. If the front is able to
move into S new england in many capacity temps could easily run
into the 50s, but for now have capped highs mainly in the mid
40s. There is a modest cad signature in the mass fields that
also supports this thinking with latest model updates.

The damp conditions will remain as moisture mainly in the lowest
400mb or so remains, exacerbated by marine ely marine flow
developing with the gradient this morning. Dry air aloft
suggests that within the weak overruning supplied by the warm
front the continued risk for dz and fog will linger until more
widespread rain develops in proximity to the second developing
frontal wave. Expecting dz/shra to give way to widespread ra
late this afternoon and evening as the frontal wave approaches
from the SW and column pwats increase to around 1.00 inches.

Given the expectation that the warm front remains to the S and
w, have focused highest QPF along and S of the mass pike and
predominantly along the S coast into the early overnight.

Widespread QPF is mainly 0.25 to 0.5 inches but some locations
across the S and SE portions of the area may see 0.5-1.00
inches before it fully finishes.

The risk for TS is limited somewhat but there are indications of
some elevated instability in the form of tt near 50 and
conditionally unstable lapse rates late today and this evening.

Therefore, will continue to include this risk in the wx.

Short term /6 pm this evening through 6 pm Wednesday/
Tonight...

frontal wave once again shifts E of the region during the
overnight hours. This will once again allow a mix of cold
advection and drier air to entrain from w-e especially from
about 03z to 09z. Rainfall gradually dissipates, but it may take
some time for the lowest lvl moisture to fully erode. Therefore,
some fog and low clouds may linger beyond the precip ending
times. May need to monitor for a few spots of patchy dense fog
as a result. Otherwise, another mild/damp night for the most
part, but cooling will occur within a few hours of sunrise such
that min temps could drop back into the mid 30s.

Tomorrow...

finally a break from the prolonged damp conditions. Drier air
will entrain through the entire column through the day allowing
skies to clear and sunshine to poke through. Although some cold
advection clouds may increase through the peak afternoon
heating. H85 temps, although cooling are still near 0c by early
afternoon. Therefore, highs could easily still reach the upper
40s and low 50s especially where enough sunshine is observed.

Breezy with nnw flow increasing through the day, gusts could
reach 25-30 mph at times.

Long term /Wednesday night through Monday/
Big picture...

a rather flat longwave pattern with individual shortwaves moving
east through that flow. One shortwave moves off through the
maritimes Wednesday night. Another ejects out of the southwest usa
and crosses new england Friday-Saturday.

Models continue to change run-to-run, leaving low confidence in the
details.

Details...

Wednesday night-Thursday...

surface low pressure passes south of nova scotia as high pressure
builds in from canada. Strong pressure gradient between the systems
will maintain north breezes along the eastern ma coastline with
lighter winds farther inland. The resulting cold advection should be
sufficient to maintain mixing from at least 950 mb where winds will
be 30-35 knots. This will mean gusty winds in at least eastern
massachusetts early in the night, diminishing overnight as the
pressure gradient diminishes.

High pressure builds over new england Thursday, bringing fair skies
and mixing to between 850 and 900 mb. Temps at these levels support
max sfc temps in the 40s.

Friday-Saturday...

questions continue with end-of-week system. General model agreement
on surface low moving up the ohio valley and then jumping to the mid
atlantic coast Friday night, passing south of new england Saturday
or Saturday night. Projected low level winds show 25-30 knot
southeast jet from nj through eastern pa and central ny at 12z
Friday. Light south flow into western ct and western ma. Meanwhile
model QPF shows measurable pcpn almost all the way to boston.

We passed on a straight importing of the model values in favor
of limiting morning pops and QPF to areas worcester and
west... Then spreading east to the rest of our area during the
afternoon/evening. Timing and track of the surface low and
resulting northeast winds supports likely pops across all of
southern new england. Precipitable water values reach .75 to
1.00 inches over our area.

Temperatures and resulting precip type are also a lingering
question. High pressure departing through the maritimes provides a
small cold air damming signal, both in the pressure pattern and a 25
knot low level ageostropic flow. Surface winds off the gulf of maine
should keep coastal areas above freezing, and daytime temps may
nudge above freezing each day. But interior locations may at least
have a rain/snow mix and may see a period of sleet or freezing rain
especially Friday night and Saturday morning.

Sunday-Monday...

high pressure builds in with dry weather. Building heights and
warming temps aloft suggest Monday will be several degrees milder
than Sunday.

Aviation /12z Tuesday through Saturday/
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term /through Wednesday/...

through 18z today... High confidence.

Mainly ifr/lifr with CIGS below 800ft. This is in line with
latest observations. The ifr/MVFR conditions continue with a
mix of fog/drizzle and low vsbys into the early afternoon hours.

Mainly E flow.

Late today into tonight... High confidence.

Mix of ifr/lifr continues but with more of a mix of ra/fog
rather than drizzle. Rain area over SW pa and W md trends to our
area about 19z ct and 22z NE ma... And this timing is backed up
by the hrrr model. Rain tapers off from W to E 03z-09z. After
rain ends a period of ifr/lifr in fog lingers afterwords.

Wed... High confidence.

Improving conditions through sunrise withVFR everywhere by 15z.

Nnw winds. Gusts to 20-25 kt at times.

Kbos taf... High confidence. Ifr to lifr through much of the
period.

Kbdl taf... High confidence. Ifr and lifr through much of the
period.

Outlook /Wednesday night through Saturday/...

Wednesday night-Thursday...

vfr as high pressure builds over the region. Strong gusty north
winds along the eastern ma coast including bos early at night with
gusts 30-35 knots. Winds diminishing overnight and on Thursday.

Friday-Saturday...

MVFR lowering to ifr in the afternoon, then ifr/lifr cigs/vsbys
Friday night and Saturday. Rain expected but with a period of sleet
and freezing rain possible inland Friday night-Saturday. East-
southeast winds Friday become northeast by Saturday.

Marine
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term /through Wednesday/...

today and tonight... High confidence.

Mainly quiet boating weather as winds and seas remain below
small craft advisory thresholds. These winds will shift, mainly
e today, then veer around to the NW by early tomorrow morning.

Fog/drizzle along with showers may lead to low visibilities at
times. Low risk for a modest thunderstorm on the waters late
today through the early overnight hours, especially on the
southern waters.

Wednesday... High confidence.

Nw flow increases with gusts 25-30 kt at times through the day
and seas on the E waters increasing to 5-7ft by late wed
afternoon. Small craft advisories will be needed.

Outlook /Wednesday night through Saturday/...

Wednesday night... Low-moderate confidence.

Low confidence for low-end north gales along the eastern waters.

Otherwise moderate confidence for north winds gusting 25-30 knots,
diminishing overnight. Seas 5 to 8 feet, mainly on the eastern and
southeast outer waters. A small craft advisory will be needed.

Thursday... High confidence.

Diminishing north wind with speeds near 25 knots during the morning.

Seas 5 to 8 feet on the eastern outer waters diminishing through the
day. Lingering small craft advisory will be needed in these areas.

Friday-Saturday... Moderate-high confidence.

Midwest weather system moves to the mid atlantic coast Friday and
passes south of new england Saturday. Increasing southeast winds
during Friday but speeds remain below 25 knots until Friday night.

Winds turn from the northeast Saturday and from north Saturday night
with speeds 25-30 knots. Seas build Friday night and Saturday with
heights 5 to 7 feet. Small craft advisory will be needed.

Box watches/warnings/advisories
Ct... None.

Ma... None.

Ri... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Wtb/doody
near term... Wtb/doody
short term... Doody
long term... Wtb
aviation... Wtb/doody
marine... Wtb/doody


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
LDLC3 - New London Ledge CT - Ledge Light Weather 10 mi29 min ESE 12 G 13 39°F 39°F
NLNC3 - 8461490 - New London, CT 11 mi41 min SSE 2.9 G 4.1 41°F 40°F1016.2 hPa
QPTR1 - 8454049 - Quonset Point, RI 31 mi47 min ENE 6 G 7 39°F 39°F1016.3 hPa
NWPR1 - 8452660 - Newport, RI 32 mi41 min ESE 6 G 8 38°F 39°F1016 hPa
PTCR1 - 8452951 - Potter Cove, Prudence Island, RI 36 mi41 min E 7 G 8 38°F 1017.1 hPa
NAXR1 - Narragansett Bay Reserve, RI 36 mi74 min ENE 5.1 39°F 1016 hPa39°F
CPTR1 - 8452944 - Conimicut Light, RI 39 mi41 min ENE 8 G 8.9 38°F 39°F1016 hPa
PVDR1 41 mi41 min E 5.1 G 6 39°F 1015.6 hPa39°F
FOXR1 - 8454000 - Providence, RI 42 mi41 min ESE 5.1 G 7 38°F 39°F1015.5 hPa
44039 - Central Long Island Sound 43 mi74 min ESE 5.8 G 9.7 39°F 1 ft
FRXM3 45 mi41 min 38°F 38°F
44017 - 23 Nautical Miles Southwest of Montauk Point, NY 45 mi69 min 41°F 42°F3 ft1015.2 hPa (+0.0)41°F
FRVM3 - 8447386 - Fall River, MA 46 mi41 min 38°F 39°F1016.7 hPa
BUZM3 - Buzzards Bay, MA 46 mi59 min E 8.9 G 9.9 37°F 1017.1 hPa (+1.0)
BLTM3 - 8447387 - Borden Flats Light at Fall River, MA 46 mi41 min ENE 4.1 G 5.1 38°F 1016.9 hPa
44097 - Block Island, RI (154) 48 mi34 min 40°F4 ft

Wind History for New London, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Westerly, Westerly State Airport, RI5 mi66 minESE 80.50 miFog40°F39°F100%1016.1 hPa
Groton / New London, Groton / New London Airport, CT8 mi63 minESE 40.25 miLight Rain Fog41°F39°F96%1015.7 hPa
Montauk, Montauk Airport, NY17 mi3.1 hrsE 3 mi41°F41°F100%1015.6 hPa
Block Island State Airport, RI19 mi63 minE 90.25 miLight Rain Fog38°F37°F100%1016.6 hPa

Wind History from WST (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE10E9E11E8SE8SE5S4SW5SW3S4W4SW5W4CalmNW5N4NW4N4CalmCalmE3NE3E3E8
1 day agoNE6NE10NE6NE9E11
G17
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G18
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2 days agoCalmCalmNE4NE8NE8N5NE7N7N11N9SE7N3N63N6CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE4NE3NE3NE4

Tide / Current Tables for Stonington, Fishers Island Sound, Connecticut
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Stonington
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Tue -- 03:48 AM EDT     -0.38 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:37 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 07:08 AM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 09:45 AM EDT     3.22 feet High Tide
Tue -- 04:04 PM EDT     -0.29 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:08 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 07:56 PM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 10:05 PM EDT     3.52 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.91.10.4-0.2-0.400.91.92.63.13.22.82.11.30.6-0-0.3-00.71.72.73.33.53.3

Tide / Current Tables for The Race, Long Island Sound, New York Current
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The Race
Click for Map
Tue -- 12:07 AM EDT     -0.01 knots Slack
Tue -- 03:13 AM EDT     -3.90 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 06:23 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 06:37 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 07:09 AM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 09:16 AM EDT     3.55 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 12:30 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 03:34 PM EDT     -3.83 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 06:40 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 07:09 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 07:57 PM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 09:36 PM EDT     3.70 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.2-1.6-3.1-3.9-3.6-2.4-0.71.12.73.53.32.30.9-0.9-2.6-3.6-3.7-2.8-1.20.62.33.53.62.8

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
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GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Boston, MA (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Boston, MA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.