Thursday, January17, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Stonington, CT

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:08AMSunset 4:46PM Thursday January 17, 2019 3:39 AM EST (08:39 UTC) Moonrise 2:30PMMoonset 4:14AM Illumination 86% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 11 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ237 Block Island Sound- 117 Am Est Thu Jan 17 2019
.small craft advisory in effect until 4 am est early this morning...
Rest of tonight..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Thu..N winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming E in the afternoon. Seas around 2 ft.
Thu night..SE winds around 5 kt, increasing to 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of snow.
Fri..SE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming sw in the afternoon. Seas around 2 ft. Snow likely with a chance of rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Fri night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt after midnight. Seas around 2 ft.
Sat..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft. A chance of snow. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sat night..E winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Snow and rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sun..S winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 45 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft. Rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sun night..NW winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 40 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft. A chance of light freezing spray. A chance of snow, freezing rain and sleet. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Mon..NW winds around 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. A chance of light freezing spray. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Mon night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. A chance of light freezing spray. Seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.
ANZ200 116 Am Est Thu Jan 17 2019
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters.. High presume builds across the waters on Thursday. A wave of low pres lifts ne over southern new england on Fri bringing snow changing to rain, then is followed by dry high pres Fri night and Sat. A more potent low pres area will impact the waters Sat night and Sun. For information on possible hazardous weather beyond the 24-36 hour forecast period, please visit www.weather.gov/boston and follow the current hazards link above the map on the left.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Stonington , CT
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location: 41.33, -71.89     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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Fxus61 kbox 170542
afdbox
area forecast discussion
national weather service boston norton ma
1242 am est Thu jan 17 2019

Synopsis
A cold front sweeps across the region early tonight with cold
dry air weather into Thursday evening. One weather system slips
past southern new england Friday, bringing a period of snow
changing to rain Thursday night and Friday. All eyes are on a
second storm that brings a mix of wintry weather for Saturday
night and Sunday. Arctic air returns for early next week.

Another weather system may bring rain and snow next Wednesday.

Near term until 6 am this morning
10 pm update...

main update was to raise temps a bit over the next few hours,
slowing the progression of the cold front a bit in line with
observations. Currently the front is draped from southwest to
northeast across sne in the vicinity of the bdl-pvd-bos
corridor. It's just passed boston in the last half hour as
evidenced by a slight wind shift, 25 kt wind gust, and dewpoints
dropping into the low teens. Still seeing tds in the 20s over
southeast ma which are expected to drop overnight as a drier
post frontal air mass is ushered in.

Previous discussion...

710 pm update...

cold front over western mass at 6 pm will sweep across southern
new england tonight. Radar shows flurries along ahead of the
front, and with the low dew points in place that should be as
much as we see for precipitation tonight.

Msas shows pressure rises of up to 3 mb hour behind the front
over NRN new england new york quebec, which should support nw
winds and cold advection overnight. Dew points behind the front
fall to the single numbers in NRN new england and NRN ny. This
will move into our area overnight.

If winds diminish enough overnight, then temperatures may reach
7-9 in some spots. Most places will chill into the teens.

Short term 6 am this morning through 6 pm Friday
Thu...

high pres crests over the region. The airmass attendant to this
high is generally colder than that which is in place now. With a
cold start thanks to earl am radiational cooling, expecting
highs to generally remain below normal for the day, mainly in
the 20s with a few spots in the low 30s near the coastlines.

Light winds gradually shift around to the E ahead of a warm
frontal approach Thu night.

Thu night...

warm front approaches from the sw, column sufficiently dry for
early breaks in clouds allowing diurnal temps to drop initially,
into the teens to mid 20s. This is before moisture flux allows
for rising dwpts throughout the column. At the onset of
precipitation, mainly after 06z, temps should be cold enough for
all snow, and allow some accumulations on roadways left
untreated due to cold sfc temps. Snow continues, although
thankfully light into the morning commute.

Long term Friday night through Wednesday
Big picture...

longwave scale continues to show ridge-west trough-east through the
long-term period, suggesting warm west and cold east. Shortwave
scale shows separate northern and southern streams Friday with
a weak shortwave racing through new england. The streams then
merge Saturday, although latest models show a little more
difficulty in the merge. Deep trough over the great lakes moves
east across new england Sunday night or Monday. The GFS and
ecmwf maintain cyclonic flow over the region through Tuesday.

Model fields are in general agreement through Saturday, and clearly
divergent later Monday through Wednesday. Confidence is moderate
Friday-Saturday and low Monday to Wednesday.

Concerns...

three periods of unsettled weather... Friday, Saturday night-Sunday,
and Wednesday. Cold dry or seasonably cold dry the remainder of the
period. Strong northwest wind gusts possible Sunday night and Monday
drawing unseasonably cold arctic air into southern new england.

Friday...

shallow northern stream shortwave in a split-stream flow regime
suggests only limited moisture amounts and weak lift. GFS cross
sections show deep moisture, but precipitable water values only a
little above normal. Consensus mslp fields show a surface low
tracking just south of our south coast, suggesting thermal fields
will support mainly snow, with a change to rain along the coast.

Temps aloft suggest MAX sfc temps in the afternoon in the 30s to low
40s. Clearing skies, diminishing wind, and dewpts in the teens and
low 20s suggest Friday night min temps in the teens and low 20s.

Saturday night and Sunday...

phased-stream flow brings higher moisture amounts to this system.

Cross sections again show deep moisture. Precip water values have
diminished a little, but still show values around 1 inch feeding
into southern and eastern parts of our area. These pw values are
well above normal in mid january.

Still uncertainty in this forecast as the models continue to shift.

Most confidence is in the ECMWF and allied models which have been
the most consistent in showing a center track along or near the
south coast. The GFS solution has shifted toward the ecmwf. This is
a colder solution, and supports more snow and ice in the forecast
than previously.

Based on this, the forecast starts with snow everywhere Saturday
night, then brings rain into the south coast by morning. Rain
spreads up to boston and the north shore Sunday, also across ri and
much of NRN ct. North of that zone will be a band of sleet freezing
rain in the interior... And snow in parts of northwest mass. Shifts
in the forecast storm path north and south will of course shift
these precipitation bands north and south.

Strong east winds will reach 35-50 mph speeds along the coast,
especially over CAPE cod and islands. Inland speeds will be more
like 25-35 mph.

Sunday night-Monday
the storm passes our area between 1 pm and 7 pm Sunday. Winds
will quickly shift out of the north and northwest. Strong
pressure gradient at the surface will generate strong sustained
winds, and cold advection will draw strong winds aloft down to
the surface with gusts of 25-40 mph possible. The combination of
wind and cold air will bring wind chills to single digits and
below zero Sunday night and Monday.

Wednesday...

another weather system moves up the ohio valley, spreading rain
and snow into southern new england Wednesday Wednesday night.

The upper flow favors the southern stream, but the day 7 time
period leaves much uncertainty.

Aviation 06z Thursday through Monday
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Friday ... High confidence.

This morning...

vfr. Winds have switched to NW and will continue through the
morning, diminishing into Thursday.

Today and tonight...

mainlyVFR. Lowering CIGS through the overnight hours. Light winds
shift from NW to e-se through the evening. Snow approaches from
the southwest after 06z.

Kbos terminal... High confidence in taf.

Kbdl terminal... High confidence in taf.

Outlook Friday night through Monday ...

Friday: MVFR ifr conditions possible. Breezy. Chance sn.

Friday night:VFR. Breezy.

Saturday: mainlyVFR, with local ifr possible late. Chance sn.

Saturday night: ifr lifr. Windy with gusts to 35 kt. Sn, fzra.

Sunday: MVFR ifr conditions possible. Strong winds with gusts
to 40 kt. Ra, fzra, pl, sn.

Sunday night: MVFR ifr conditions possible. Strong winds with
local gusts to 40 kt. Chance sn, fzra likely.

Martin luther king jr day: mainlyVFR, with local ifr possible.

Windy with gusts to 30 kt.

Marine
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Friday ...

w-sw winds will continue to gust around 22 kt early tonight,
then become NW overnight as a cold front moves across the
waters. Pressure rises behind the front will generate increased
winds across the waters for a few hours tonight.

High pressure builds over new england Thursday, bringing
lighter winds to the waters. The high then moves off to the east
Thursday night. This will bring quieter boating weather to the
waters.

An approaching weather system will spread snow and rain over the
waters after midnight Thursday night, with reduced vsbys by
morning.

Outlook Friday night through Monday ...

Friday: winds less than 25 kt. Snow likely, chance of rain.

Areas of visibility 1 to 3 nm.

Friday night: winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching
5 ft.

Saturday: winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching
5 ft. Slight chance of snow. Local visibility 1 to 3 nm.

Saturday night: moderate risk for small craft advisory winds
with gusts up to 30 kt. Areas of rough seas. Snow likely, rain.

Visibility 1 to 3 nm.

Sunday: moderate risk for gale force winds with gusts up to
45 kt. Rough seas up to 13 ft. Rain, freezing rain.

Sunday night: moderate risk for gale force winds with gusts up
to 40 kt. Rough seas up to 13 ft. Chance of snow, freezing rain
likely, chance of sleet. Visibility 1 to 3 nm.

Martin luther king jr day: low risk for gale force winds with
gusts up to 35 kt. Rough seas up to 12 ft. Chance of snow.

Visibility 1 to 3 nm.

Box watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ma... None.

Ri... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 4 am est early this morning for
anz230>235-237.

Small craft advisory until 10 am est this morning for anz250.

Small craft advisory until 7 am est this morning for anz251-
255-256.

Small craft advisory until 11 am est this morning for anz254.

Synopsis... Wtb doody
near term... Wtb doody bw
short term... Doody
long term... Wtb
aviation... Wtb bw
marine... Wtb doody


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
LDLC3 - New London Ledge CT - Ledge Light Weather 10 mi45 min NW 15 G 20 28°F 1015.7 hPa12°F
NLNC3 - 8461490 - New London, CT 11 mi58 min NNW 2.9 G 5.1 27°F 42°F1024.8 hPa
MTKN6 - 8510560 - Montauk, NY 20 mi58 min 31°F 36°F1024.8 hPa
QPTR1 - 8454049 - Quonset Point, RI 31 mi58 min WNW 8 G 11 28°F 42°F1024.2 hPa
NWPR1 - 8452660 - Newport, RI 32 mi58 min NW 8.9 G 14 30°F 36°F1023.8 hPa
NAXR1 - Narragansett Bay Reserve, RI 36 mi115 min NW 6 30°F 1023 hPa15°F
PTCR1 - 8452951 - Potter Cove, Prudence Island, RI 36 mi58 min NNW 8 G 13 29°F 1024 hPa
CPTR1 - 8452944 - Conimicut Light, RI 39 mi52 min WNW 14 G 17 29°F 40°F1024 hPa
PVDR1 41 mi58 min WNW 8.9 G 11 28°F 1024 hPa13°F
FOXR1 - 8454000 - Providence, RI 42 mi58 min NW 5.1 G 8.9 28°F 41°F1023.7 hPa
44039 - Central Long Island Sound 43 mi115 min NNW 16 G 21 32°F 40°F3 ft
44017 - 23 Nautical Miles Southwest of Montauk Point, NY 45 mi50 min NW 21 G 23 33°F 44°F5 ft1024.4 hPa (+2.8)18°F
FRXM3 45 mi52 min 30°F 15°F
FRVM3 - 8447386 - Fall River, MA 46 mi58 min 30°F 38°F1024.1 hPa
BUZM3 - Buzzards Bay, MA 46 mi40 min NW 19 G 20 31°F 1024.3 hPa (+2.9)
BLTM3 - 8447387 - Borden Flats Light at Fall River, MA 46 mi52 min NW 8.9 G 12 30°F 1024 hPa
44097 - Block Island, RI (154) 48 mi40 min 45°F6 ft

Wind History for New London, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Westerly, Westerly State Airport, RI5 mi47 minNW 610.00 miFair29°F12°F51%1025 hPa
Groton / New London, Groton / New London Airport, CT8 mi44 minNNW 610.00 miFair27°F10°F51%1025.1 hPa
Montauk, Montauk Airport, NY17 mi1.8 hrsNNW 15 G 20 mi31°F15°F52%1024.2 hPa
Block Island State Airport, RI19 mi44 minNNW 11 G 2010.00 miFair29°F15°F56%1024.8 hPa

Wind History from WST (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmSW8SW9
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1 day agoN4N4CalmCalmCalmN5N9NW7NW7NW75NW5NW4NW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoN7N7N6N7N8N6N6N9N7N9N7N94CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW3NW3

Tide / Current Tables for Stonington, Fishers Island Sound, Connecticut
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Stonington
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Thu -- 03:14 AM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 05:05 AM EST     3.04 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:10 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 11:51 AM EST     -0.12 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 01:30 PM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 04:45 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 05:38 PM EST     2.22 feet High Tide
Thu -- 11:46 PM EST     0.08 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.411.82.42.932.92.41.81.20.60.1-0.10.20.81.41.92.22.21.91.410.50.2

Tide / Current Tables for The Race, Long Island Sound, New York Current
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The Race
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Thu -- 01:28 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 03:14 AM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 04:28 AM EST     2.62 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 07:10 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:46 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 11:01 AM EST     -3.13 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 01:31 PM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 02:23 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 04:46 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 05:07 PM EST     2.47 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 08:25 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 11:23 PM EST     -2.69 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-1.6-0.60.61.82.52.51.90.9-0.3-1.6-2.7-3.1-2.7-1.8-0.50.822.52.21.50.5-0.7-1.9-2.6

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Boston, MA (3,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Boston, MA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.