Sunrise 5:41 AM   Sunset 7:46 PM Moonrise 2:26 AM   Moonset 12:00 PM

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ANZ237 Block Island Sound- 405 Pm Edt Wed May 1 2024
Tonight - SE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming S after midnight. Seas around 2 ft. Wave detail: se 2 ft at 6 seconds and E 1 ft at 10 seconds. Patchy fog after midnight with vsby 1 nm or less. Thu - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Wave detail: se 2 ft at 6 seconds and E 1 ft at 9 seconds. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 nm or less in the morning. Thu night - NW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming ne 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: ne 2 ft at 5 seconds and S 2 ft at 6 seconds. Patchy fog in the evening. Fri - NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt in the morning. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: ne 2 ft at 4 seconds and S 2 ft at 5 seconds. Fri night and Sat - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Wave detail: se 2 ft at 5 seconds and E 1 ft at 9 seconds. Sat night - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Wave detail: se 2 ft at 5 seconds. A chance of showers after midnight. Sun through Mon - SW winds around 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft. A chance of showers. Mon night - W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.

ANZ200 405 Pm Edt Wed May 1 2024
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters - High pres will be over the waters tonight then move offshore Thu. Low pres will cross new eng and the waters Thu afternoon and evening. High pres over the maritimes will build south into new england Fri and Sat, then head to nova scotia Sun. A weak front will move into the region Mon.

FXUS61 KBOX 011933 AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 333 PM EDT Wed May 1 2024

SYNOPSIS
A weak low pressure system will bring scattered showers near the coast Thursday. High pressure north of the region will bring dry and seasonable weather Friday and most of Saturday with onshore winds. An approaching front should bring showers late Saturday into Sunday. Dry and warmer weather is expected early next week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/
4pm Update

Mainly dry the rest of today with a low chance for an isolated shower across the Berkshires and CT river valley this afternoon as 100-200 J/kg of SBCAPE builds with some sunshine. Low clouds and pockets of fog form again overnight as surface winds turn south and bring in low level moisture. Overnight lows again stay in the mid to upper 40s with low cloud cover and weak warm air advection.

SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
Tomorrow:

Shortwave trough and associated surface low drops south from northern New England. An area of light showers associated with a cold front move through tomorrow morning, however, guidance is mixed on the extent south and intensity of these showers. The best forcing for showers looks to mainly stay confined to northeast MA.
Later in the afternoon, the center of the low pressure and core of shortwave energy passes over eastern MA. At this point, 100-200 J/kg of MUCAPE will be able to build, allowing for isolated convective showers to form across eastern MA, with the best chance over northeast MA again. With the low amount of instability, there is a low chance for a rumble of thunder with any showers tomorrow afternoon. Confidence was not high enough to include mention in the forecast database at this point.

High temperatures have trended warmer tomorrow with SSW flow, and increasing chances for sunny to partly sunny skies across western MA and CT. Stuck with the NBM for temperatures tomorrow with highs in the mid to upper 70s in the CT river valley, and upper 60s to low 70s in RI and Eastern MA away from the coasts.

Tomorrow night:

Winds shift NE overnight as the center of the low moves south off shore and high pressure builds in to the north. This will bring all the low clouds and fog back onshore, eventually pushing west over much of the region. This keeps low temps mild once again only dropping into the upper 40s to low 50s. Rain and shower chances quickly decrease as the low exits and upper level ridge builds in.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Key Points:

* Overall quiet weather pattern ahead * Scattered showers late Saturday into Sunday * Warmup early next week

Still have the greatest confidence in dry weather persisting through most of Saturday. Still some disagreement in when showers could arrive late Saturday into Sunday. Both the 01/12Z GFS and CMC suggest at least a risk for showers along the east coast of MA late Saturday afternoon, while the larger NationalBlend ensemble maintains dry weather for the same time frame. Given the synoptic pattern, with a high pressure just to the east of New England, favoring the drier NationalBlend solution into Saturday night. This still pushes the focus for weekend showers into Sunday.

Trickier forecast for earlier next week. Latest guidance suite still exhibited some timing and amplitude differences with the evolution of a mid level longwave trough near the Rockies. This will eventually impact our weather downstream. Our proximity to a surface front will be critical to our forecast outcome. At present, thinking this front will be pushed far enough south where mainly dry weather prevails Monday and Tuesday, before returning north as a warm front some time Tuesday night into Wednesday.

Near normal temperatures expected through Saturday, before briefly trending below normal Sunday. Likely to see above normal temperatures early next week.

AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
Forecast Confidence Levels:

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Rest of Today: Moderate Confidence

IFR ceilings continue to persist across NE MA. Expecting IFR CIGS to continue while winds remain ENE. Should see improvements to MVFR once winds shift SSW later this evening.
Ceilings continue to lift across SE MA, RI, but confidence on VFR vs MVFR is low. VFR for the CT river valley with a low chance for a isolated shower this afternoon.

Tonight: Moderate Confidence

VFR/MVFR becoming IFR/LIFR late overnight before sunrise.

Tomorrow: Moderate Confidence

Slow improvements of IFR to MVFR in the morning. A passing low could bring light rain esspically to NE terminals tomorrow morning into the afternoon. Western terminals will see CIGS reach VFR tomorrow afternoon, while eastern terminals, esspically Cape Cod and the Islands, could get stuck with MVFR/IFR.

Thursday Night: VFR/MVFR in the west, with IFR/LIFR filling back in the east.

KBOS TAF...Low confidence

Guidance is really struggling to maintain the IFR status deck thats been hanging around all day. With an ENE wind, not expecting much improvements to MVFR/VFR outside a brief breaks in the clouds. Winds should turn around to the SSW this evening which should help push CIGS back up into the MVFR range, but confidence is low to moderate at this time. Higher confidence at IFR/LIFR CIGS working back in overnight before sunrise, lasting into the late morning. A passing low could bring light showers tomorrow morning into the afternoon, but confidence was only high enough to include VCSH in the TAF at this time.

KBDL TAF...Moderate confidence.

The IFR status deck has cleared BDL, however stratocumulus are starting to form which may bring brief periods of MVFR this afternoon. There is a low chance for an isolated light shower this afternoon, but confidence was not high enough to include a VCSH in the TAF. Expecting CIGS to drop back to MVFR then IFR again overnight and improving again tomorrow morning with VFR again by tomorrow afternoon.

Outlook /Friday through Monday/...

Friday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible.

Friday Night: VFR.

Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible.

Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Slight chance SHRA.

Sunday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Chance SHRA.

Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas IFR possible. Chance SHRA.

Monday: VFR.

MARINE
Forecaster Confidence Levels:

Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Tonight: Winds shift south tonight remaining 10 knots or less with calm seas.

Tomorrow:

Weak low pressure system brings scattered showers and a low chance for a rumble of thunder mainly across the northern waters. Winds remain south at 10-15 knots gusting 20 knots.
Light seas of 1-3 feet.

Tomorrow night: Low clouds and fog possible overnight. Winds turn ENE again at 5-10 knots and seas remain 1-3 feet.

Outlook /Friday through Monday/...

Friday through Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt.

Saturday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Slight chance of rain showers.

Sunday: Winds less than 25 kt. Chance of rain showers.

Sunday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain showers.

Monday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.
Slight chance of rain showers.

BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...None.

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Stonington
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Wed -- 02:26 AM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 02:56 AM EDT     2.94 feet High Tide
Wed -- 05:44 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:27 AM EDT     Last Quarter
Wed -- 09:54 AM EDT     0.38 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 12:00 PM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 03:53 PM EDT     2.51 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:45 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 10:12 PM EDT     0.71 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Stonington, Fishers Island Sound, Connecticut, Tide feet

The Race
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Wed -- 02:26 AM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 02:27 AM EDT     2.20 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 05:38 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 05:45 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:27 AM EDT     Last Quarter
Wed -- 08:58 AM EDT     -2.68 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 12:01 PM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 12:15 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 03:08 PM EDT     2.28 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 06:28 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 07:46 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 09:32 PM EDT     -2.43 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

The Race, Long Island Sound, New York Current, knots

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