Sunrise 5:31 AM   Sunset 7:56 PM Moonrise 7:01 AM   Moonset 11:23 PM

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ANZ332 Long Island Sound East Of The Mouth Of The Connecticut River- 343 Am Edt Fri May 10 2024
.small craft advisory in effect through this afternoon - .
Today - E winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: E 3 ft at 4 seconds. Rain this morning, then chance of light rain early this afternoon. Slight chance of light rain late. Tonight - NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: E 3 ft at 5 seconds. Chance of light rain in the evening, then slight chance of showers after midnight. Sat - NE winds around 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: E 2 ft at 6 seconds. Sat night - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Wave detail: E 2 ft at 7 seconds. Sun - E winds around 5 kt, becoming S in the afternoon. Seas around 2 ft. Wave detail: E 1 ft at 8 seconds. Slight chance of showers. Sun night - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Wave detail: E 1 ft at 8 seconds. Mon - SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Mon night - SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Tue - SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Chance of showers. Tue night - S winds around 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Showers likely.

ANZ300 343 Am Edt Fri May 10 2024
Synopsis for the long island and connecticut coastal waters - Low pressure systems moves south of the area today, and further south and offshore tonight. A weak low approaches Saturday night into Sunday. High pressure returns on Monday before moving offshore into Tuesday. Another low may impact the waters during the middle of next week.

FXUS61 KBOX 100742 AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 342 AM EDT Fri May 10 2024

SYNOPSIS
Low pressure tracks well south and east of New England through Saturday as high pressure builds in from the north. This will bring drier conditions after any lingering shower this morning, but cool temperatures as a persistent NE wind prevails. Continued cooler than normal Sunday with chance of showers as an upper level low pressure moves into the region. Milder temperatures return next week but an unsettled pattern persists through midweek.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
Mid level trough moves into New Eng today as low pres moves off mid Atlc coast and tracks well to the south. Modest forcing ahead of the mid level trough combined with area of deep moisture is resulting in showers pushing into SNE early this morning, mainly south of the MA Pike. A few showers will linger here this morning after daybreak, but expect a drying trend thereafter as low level drier air moves in from the north and east. While lots of cloud cover is expected today, this drier air will likely lead to partial sunshine developing later this morning into the afternoon, especially across eastern MA. NE flow and pocket of cold temps aloft with 850 mb temps falling to near 0C will keep temps in the mid-upper 50s today, except lower 60s CT valley. This is about 10 degrees below normal. NE winds 10-20 mph expected with some higher gusts possible along the south coast where weak low level jet present.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/
Tonight...

Mid level trough moves south and east of New Eng with further drying from the north as PWATs drop below 0.50". Partial clearing expected overnight in the interior, but more clouds will linger near the coast. Decent radiational cooling may develop in the interior as winds decouple. This may result in lows dropping into the upper 30s in portions of the interior, with low-mid 40s elsewhere.

Saturday...

Weak shortwave ridging develops across SNE between departing shortwave to the east and upstream trough moving into the Gt Lakes. This will maintain surface high pres with mainly dry conditions and partial sunshine, although can't rule out a spot shower in eastern MA with marginally cold temps aloft and steep low level lapse rates with lingering low level moisture.
Another cool day with temps several degrees below normal as 850 mb temps 0 to -1C. Expected highs will be in the mid-upper 50s with lower 60s in the CT valley.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
Key Points:

* Unseasonably cool and mainly dry Sunday

* Temps become more seasonable Monday and Tuesday

* Unsettled wet weather Monday - Wednesday, but uncertainty remains high.

Sunday:

Upper level closed low becomes centered over SNE. This leaves the region under cyclonic flow along with a cold pool aloft. The best forcing with the closed low remains south of SNE. There is a low chance for a weak hit or miss diurnally driven showers Sunday, however, guidance doesnt show much if any instability and bufkit soundings show a rather capped atmosphere with some warming at 700mb. Skies look to turn mostly cloudy Sunday with onshore flow and a moist column. High temps remain unseasonably cool in the upper 50s to low 60s with 850mb temps still around -1C.

Monday - Wednesday

Upper level closed low and cold pool finally move to the NE. 850mb temps quickly begin to warm to +7C by Monday. This will allow temperatures to become more seasonable with highs in the low to mid 70s. Precipitation is rather messy during this time period with considerable uncertainty. Monday should be mainly dry for the most part with rising heights. However, WAA and PWATS near 1.1 inches enter the region and could bring a few weak showers late in the day.
Better forcing doesnt look to arrive until late Tuesday night into Wednesday as a weakening shortwave exiting the Great Plains sends weak impulses of energy along with falling heights to the region.
The best forcing from this shortwave once again looks to stay south of the region sending most of the widespread rain south as well.
Ensemble guidance remains very spread out with this system with very little agreement between the GEFS and Euro members. Using the LREF, which combines the GFS, Euro, and Canadian ensembles, 24 hour probabilities for 0.5 inches of rain max out Wednesday at 40-50% along the south coast, with 30% or less further north.

Thursday and Friday

A very dry airmass looks to follow behind the shortwave with PWATS falling below 0.4 inches. An upper level ridge and rising heights should allow skies to be mostly sunny. Weak CAA and NW winds should keep daytime high temps in the low to mid 70s.

AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
Forecast Confidence Levels:

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Through 12z...

Mix of VFR-MVFR cigs with occasional showers mostly south of BAF-TAN-PYM.

Today...High confidence.

MVFR-VFR cigs trending to VFR from NE to SW. A few showers south of the MA Pike into early afternoon. NE wind 10-20 kt with higher gusts over the Islands.

Tonight...High confidence.

VFR, except for ACK where MVFR cigs possible with low chance of a few showers. NE wind 5-15 kt becoming N overnight.

Saturday...High confidence.

VFR, but areas of MVFR cigs developing across portions of eastern MA and Cape/Islands where a spot shower possible. NE wind 10-20 kt.

KBOS TAF...High confidence in TAF.

KBDL TAF...High confidence in TAF. MVFR cigs this morning with scattered showers will improve this afternoon.

Outlook /Saturday Night through Tuesday/...

Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible.

Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA.

Sunday Night: VFR.

Monday: VFR. Breezy.

Monday Night: VFR. Breezy. Slight chance SHRA.

Tuesday: VFR. Breezy. Chance SHRA.

MARINE
Forecaster Confidence Levels:

Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Through Saturday...

Low pres tracking south and east of the waters will bring NE winds 10-20 kt with occasional 25 kt gusts over southern waters through Sat with seas building to 5 ft. Extended the SCA for outer southern waters through Sat.

Outlook /Saturday Night through Tuesday/...

Saturday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers.

Sunday through Sunday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.

Monday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.

Monday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 20 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.

Tuesday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers.

BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT Saturday for ANZ254>256.

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Stonington
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Fri -- 05:23 AM EDT     -0.20 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 05:33 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:01 AM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 11:22 AM EDT     2.69 feet High Tide
Fri -- 05:20 PM EDT     0.30 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 07:55 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 11:23 PM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 11:34 PM EDT     3.63 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Stonington, Fishers Island Sound, Connecticut, Tide feet

The Race
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Fri -- 01:25 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 04:35 AM EDT     -3.83 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 05:34 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:02 AM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 07:57 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 10:45 AM EDT     3.03 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 02:03 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 04:57 PM EDT     -3.03 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 07:55 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 08:02 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 10:58 PM EDT     3.02 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 11:23 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

The Race, Long Island Sound, New York Current, knots

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